The expression of vulnerability through infant mortality in the municipality of Embu

CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: A mortalidade infantil expressa uma conjunção de fatores relacionados às condições de vida, trabalho e acesso aos serviços de saúde, e a identificação desses fatores pode contribuir para definição de intervenções em saúde. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a expressão da vulnerabilidade e conseqüentes diferenças de acesso aos serviços de saúde e na ocorrência de óbitos em menores de um ano no município do Embu. TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Estudo descritivo, no município de Embu. MÉTODOS: Foram coletados dados secundários (declarações de óbitos) e primários (entrevistas a famílias de crianças residentes do município do Embu, falecidas nos anos de 1996 e 1997, antes de completarem um ano). Variáveis estudadas foram relacionadas às condições de vida, renda e trabalho, à assistência pré-natal, ao parto e à atenção à saúde da criança, as quais foram comparadas com resultados obtidos em estudo realizado no ano de 1996. RESULTADOS: Verificaram-se diferenças estatisticamente significantes quanto a renda, trabalho sem carteira assinada e acesso a plano privado de saúde entre famílias de crianças que foram ao óbito. Verificaram-se, também, diferenças quanto ao acesso e à qualidade da assistência pré-natal, à freqüência de baixo peso ao nascer e a intercorrências neonatais. CONCLUSÕES: A situação de emprego/desemprego foi decisiva na determinação da estabilidade familiar, conferindo maior vulnerabilidade para ocorrência de óbitos infantis, somada às condições de acesso e à qualidade dos serviços de saúde

Size-based predation by kookaburras (Dacelo novaeguineae) on lizards (Eulamprus tympanum : Scincidae): what determines prey vulnerability?

Lizards and birds are both popular model organisms in behavioural ecology, but the interactions between them have attracted little study. Given the putative importance of birds as predators of diurnal Lizards, it is of considerable interest to know which traits (of lizards as well as birds) influence the outcome of a predatory attempt. We studied predation by giant terrestrial kingfishers (kookaburras, Dacelo novaeguineae: Alcedinidae) on heliothermic diurnal lizards (highland water skinks, Eulamprus tympanum: Scincidae), with particular reference to the role of prey (lizard) size. Our approach was twofold: to gather direct evidence (sizes of lizards consumed in the field, compared to those available) and indirect evidence rite-related shifts in lizard behaviour). We quantified the size structure of a natural population of skinks (determined by an extensive mark-recapture program), and compared it to the sizes of wild lizards taken by kookaburras (determined by analysis of prey remains left at the birds' nests,. Kookaburras showed size-based predation: they preyed mainly on small and medium-sized rather than large lizards in the field. However, the mechanism producing this bias remains elusive. It is not due to any distinctive behavioural attributes (locomotor ability, activity level, habitat usage) of the lizards of the size class disproportionately taken by the kookaburras. The greater vulnerability of subadult lizards may reflect subtle ontogenetic shifts in ecological and behavioural traits, but our data suggest that great caution is needed in inferring patterns of vulnerability to predation from indirect measures based on either the prey or the predator alone. Instead, we need direct observations on the interaction between the two.

The role of cognitive vulnerability and stress in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology

Objectives. The present study was designed to test the diathesis-stress components of Beck's cognitive theory of depression and the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology. Design and methods. The research used a two-wave longitudinal design-data were collected from 65 primiparous women during their third trimester of pregnancy and then 6 weeks after the birth. Cognitive vulnerability and initial depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 1, whereas stress and postpartum depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 2. Results. There was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory, to the extent that the negative relationship between both general and maternal-specific dysfunctional attitudes associated with performance evaluation and Time 2 depressive symptomatology was strongest for women who reported high levels of parental stress. In a similar vein, the effects of dysfunctional attitudes (general and maternal-specific) associated with performance evaluation and need for approval (general measure only) on partner ratings of emotional distress were evident only among those women whose infants were rated as being temperamentally difficult. Conclusion. There was no support for the diathesis-stress component of the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression; however, there was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory.

Psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake .3. Role of vulnerability factors in postdisaster morbidity

Background. This paper examines the contributions of dispositional and non-dispositional factors to post-disaster psychological morbidity. Data reported are from the 845 participants in the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study. Methods. The phase 1 survey was used to construct dimensional indices of threat and disruption exposure. Subsequently, a range of dispositional characteristics were measured, including neuroticism, personal hopefulness and defence style. The main morbidity measures were the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Dispositional characteristics were the best predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the 2 years post-disaster, contributing substantially more to the variance in morbidity (12-39%) than did initial exposure (5-12%), but the extent of their contribution was greater for general (GHQ-12) than for post-traumatic (IES) morbidity. Among the non-dispositional factors, avoidance coping contributed equally to general and post-traumatic morbidity (pr = 0.24). Life events since the earthquake (pr = 0.18), poor social relationships (pr = -0.25) and ongoing earthquake-related disruptions (pr = 0.22) also contributed to general morbidity, while only the latter contributed significantly to post-traumatic morbidity (pr = 0.15). Conclusions. Medium-term post-earthquake morbidity appears to be a function of multiple factors whose contributions vary depending on the type of morbidity experienced and include trait vulnerability, the nature and degree of initial exposure, avoidance coping and the nature and severity of subsequent events.

Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: A case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico

Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

Abnormal Left and Right Amygdala-Orbitofrontal Cortical Functional Connectivity to Emotional Faces: State Versus Trait Vulnerability Markers of Depression in Bipolar Disorder

Background: Amygdala-orbitofrontal cortical (OFC) functional connectivity (FC) to emotional stimuli and relationships with white matter remain little examined in bipolar disorder individuals (BD). Methods: Thirty-one BD (type 1; n = 17 remitted; n = 14 depressed) and 24 age- and gender-ratio-matched healthy individuals (HC) viewed neutral, mild, and intense happy or sad emotional faces in two experiments. The FC was computed as linear and nonlinear dependence measures between amygdala and OFC time series. Effects of group, laterality, and emotion intensity upon amygdala-OFC FC and amygdala-OFC FC white matter fractional anisotropy (FA) relationships were examined. Results: The BD versus HC showed significantly greater right amygdala-OFC FC (p <= .001) in the sad experiment and significantly reduced bilateral amygdala-OFC FC (p = .007) in the happy experiment. Depressed but not remitted female BD versus female HC showed significantly greater left amygdala-OFC FC (p = .001) to all faces in the sad experiment and reduced bilateral amygdala-OFC FC to intense happy faces (p = .01). There was a significant nonlinear relationship (p = .001) between left amygdala-OFC FC to sad faces and FA in HC. In BD, antidepressants were associated with significantly reduced left amygdala-OFC FC to mild sad faces (p = .001). Conclusions: In BD, abnormally elevated right amygdala-OFC FC to sad stimuli might represent a trait vulnerability for depression, whereas abnormally elevated left amygdala-OFC FC to sad stimuli and abnormally reduced amygdala-OFC FC to intense happy stimuli might represent a depression state marker. Abnormal FC measures might normalize with antidepressant medications in BD. Nonlinear amygdala-OFC FC-FA relationships in BID and HC require further study.

Individual vulnerability to escalated aggressive behavior by a low dose of alcohol: decreased serotonin receptor mRNA in the prefrontal cortex of male mice

Low to moderate doses of alcohol consumption induce heightened aggressive behavior in some, but not all individuals. Individual vulnerability for this nonadaptive behavior may be determined by an interaction of genetic and environmental factors with the sensitivity of alcohol`s effects on brain and behavior. We used a previously established protocol for alcohol oral self-administration and characterized alcohol-heightened aggressive (AHA) mice as compared with alcohol non-heightened (ANA) counterparts. A week later, we quantified mRNA steady state levels of several candidate genes in the serotonin [5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)] system in different brain areas. We report a regionally selective and significant reduction of all 5-HT receptor subtype transcripts, except for 5-HT(3), in the prefrontal cortex of AHA mice. Comparable gene expression profile was previously observed in aggressive mice induced by social isolation or by an anabolic androgenic steroid. Additional change in the 5-HT(1B) receptor transcripts was seen in the amygdala and hypothalamus of AHA mice. In both these areas, 5-HT(1B) mRNA was elevated when compared with ANA mice. In the hypothalamus, AHA mice also showed increased transcripts for 5-HT(2A) receptor. In the midbrain, 5-HT synthetic enzyme, 5-HT transporter and 5-HT receptors mRNA levels were similar between groups. Our results emphasize a role for postsynaptic over presynaptic 5-HT receptors in mice which showed escalated aggression after the consumption of a moderate dose of alcohol. This gene expression profile of 5-HT neurotransmission components in the brain of mice may suggest a vulnerability trait for alcohol-heightened aggression.

A typology of community opportunity and vulnerability in metropolitan Australia

A multivariate model using hierarchical clustering and discriminant analysis is used to identify clusters of community opportunity and community vulnerability across Australia's mega metropolitan regions, Variables used in the model measure aspects of structural economic change, occupational change, human capital, income, unemployment, family/household disadvantage, and housing stress. A nine-cluster solution is used to categorise communities across metropolitan space. Significant between-city variations in the incidence of these clusters of opportunity and vulnerability are apparent, suggesting the emergence of marked differentiation between Australia's mega metropolitan regions in their adjustments to changing economic and social conditions. JEL classification: C49, R11, R12.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Screening for vulnerability to abuse among older women: Women's health Australia study

The validity of a brief self-report screening measure for elder abuse was examined on a nationally representative sample of more than 12,000 older women it? the baseline survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The screening instrument was a modification Of the Hwalek-Sengstock Elder Abuse Screening Test. Construct validity was examined using factor analysis and correlation with a wide range of sociodemographic, psychological. and health-related variables. Four factors, each of three items, were identified representing the following domains: Vulnerability, Dependence, Dejection, and Coercion. The Vulnerability and Coercion factors had the highest face validity for abuse and demonstrated moderate to good construct validity. The six items comprising these factors may provide a simple screening tool for elder abuse The identified correlates of abuse indicators have the potential to enhance policy development, screening, intervention, and carer support programs.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS tools

Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco's coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.

Vulnerability of mediterranean watersheds to climate change

Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.