Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories -- good monetary policy, improved inventory management, or good luck. Summers (2005) argues that a combination of good monetary policy and better inventory management led to the Great Moderation. The end of the Great Moderation, however, occurs at approximately the same time in both the US and the UK. It seems unlikely that good monetary policy would turn into bad policy or that better inventory management would turn into worse management. Rather, the likely explanation comes from bad luck. Two likely culprits exist . energy-price and housing-price shocks.

The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis

Recently, Fagiolo et al. (2008) find fat tails of economic growth rates after adjusting outliers, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. This paper employs US quarterly real output growth, showing that this finding of fat tails may reflect the Great Moderation. That is, leptokurtosis disappears after GARCH adjustment once we incorporate the break in the variance equation.

A New robot for environmental monitoring on the Great Barrier Reef

A vast amount of research into autonomous underwater navigation has, and is, being conducted around the world. However, typical research and commercial platforms have limited autonomy and are generally unable to navigate efficiently within coral reef environments without tethers and significant external infrastructure. This paper outlines the development and presents experimental results into the performance evaluation of a new robotic vehicle for underwater monitoring and surveying in highly unstructured environments. The hybrid AUV design developed by the CSIRO robotic reef monitoring team realises a compromise between endurance, manoeuvrability and functionality. The vehicle represents a new era in AUV design specifically focused at providing a truly lowcost research capability that will progress environmental monitoring through unaided navigation, cooperative robotics, sensor network distribution and data harvesting.

Dr. Seuss and the "Great Balancing Act" : Exploring the Ethical Places You’ll Go Within Australian Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology

Stories by children’s writer Dr. Seuss have often been utilised as non-traditional narrative reflections regarding the issues of ethics and morality (Greenwood, 2000). Such case studies are viewed as effective teaching and learning tools due to the associated analytical and decision-making frameworks that are represented within the texts, and focus upon the exploration of universally general virtues and approaches to ethics (Hankes, 2012). Whilst Dr. Seuss did not create a story directly related to the sport, exercise or performance domains, many of his narratives possess psychological implications that are applicable in any situation that requires ethical consideration of the thinking and choices people make. The following exploration of the ‘ethical places you’ll go’ draws upon references to his work as a guide to navigating this interesting and sometimes challenging landscape for sport, exercise, and performance psychologists (SEPP).

The great divide : bridging the gap

Learning Objective: To describe a collaborative system of clinical allocations using a dedicated, discipline specific administrative coordinator. Methods: The Clinical Placement Coordinator is the liaison person between the student, the academic staff and the clinical sites, and fills an important role in bridging the gap to enhance the student learning experience. With this in mind the Coordinator is very discipline focused and works closely with the academic staff who coordinate the clinical units within the program. This person is the ‘‘face’’ of QUT to the external stakeholders, and ensures that all parties experience a smooth process. This no mean feat given that there are over 350 students to be placed annually, across 14 separate clinical blocks ranging from 1 to 6 weeks in length at various sites. The processes involved in clinical placement allocation will be presented, and the roles of the staff in facilitating students’ placement preferences and matching with clinical site offers will be described. In many allied health programs in Australia, the clinical placement activity is carried out by an academic member of staff. However, this can result in delays in communications due to other workload requirements such as lecture, tutorial and practical class commitments. Having a dedicated knowledgeable administration officer has resulted in a person being available to take calls from clinical staff, meet with students to discuss allocation needs and ensure that academic staff are consulted if and when necessary. The Clinical Placement Coordinator is very much a part of the course team and attends professional meetings and conferences as an avenue of networking and meeting clinical staff. Results: The success in having a dedicated administrative officer as the Clinical Placement Coordinator acting as the conduit between academic staff and students, and the university and clinical staff has been highly successful to date. This was noted in commendations from the 2010 Course Accreditation Panel Report which stated: ‘‘The very positive perception in the professional community of Ms Margaret McBurney’s effective and efficient organization of student clinical placements. Students and clinical professionals commented favourably on the approachability of staff. There is confidence that program staff will follow up on issues raised urgently in clinical centres.’’

Darling and the Great Anabranch : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

The Lower Darling River and Great Darling Anabranch are located in south west New South Wales. Muddy waters meander over the grey soil floodplains past red dunes, spiky saltbush and gnarled red gums. These are the traditional lands of the Paakintji people. But the land and the river are no longer what the Paakintji once knew and fished...

Chasing the great Australian dream : definition of "an ideal home" among baby boomers

In Australia, the idea of home ownership or The Great Australian Dream is still perceived as the main achievement of every Australian’s life. Perception of an ideal home is changing over the decades. Each generation has special requirements criteria which foster their dwelling space. This research identifies and compares three generations’ (Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y) demographics, special requirements and perceptions regarding their ideal home. The examination of previous research and literature into the Queensland context reveals that the Baby Boomers population of people 65 and older is currently 11.8% of the state population and is expected to grow to almost one quarter of the population by 2051. This is the highest growth rate among these three generations. Further analysis of these three generations’ status and requirements shows that aging is the most critical issue for the housing systems. This is especially the case for Baby Boomers due to their demand for support services and health care in the home. The study reveals that ‘ageing in place’, is a preferred option for the aged. This raises questions as to how well the housing system and neighbourhood environments are able to support ageing in place, and what aging factors should be taken into consideration when designing Baby boomer’s home to facilitate health and wellbeing. Therefore, this research designed a qualitative approach to investigate Australian Baby Boomers homes around Queensland, predominantly in the Brisbane area, using semi-structured interviews and observations. It aims to find out the level of satisfaction of Australian Baby Boomers with their current home and their preferences and requirements in light of their ideal home. The findings contribute new knowledge in the light of ideal home mechanisms. A set of strategies has been developed from the findings that may help improve the level of comfort, safety and satisfaction that Baby Boomers experience in their current and future homes.

Discerning the timing and cause of historical mortality events in modern Porites from the Great Barrier Reef

The life history strategies of massive Porites corals make them a valuable resource not only as key providers of reef structure, but also as recorders of past environmental change. Yet recent documented evidence of an unprecedented increase in the frequency of mortality in Porites warrants investigation into the history of mortality and associated drivers. To achieve this, both an accurate chronology and an understanding of the life history strategies of Porites are necessary. Sixty-two individual Uranium–Thorium (U–Th) dates from 50 dead massive Porites colonies from the central inshore region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed the timing of mortality to have occurred predominantly over two main periods from 1989.2 ± 4.1 to 2001.4 ± 4.1, and from 2006.4 ± 1.8 to 2008.4 ± 2.2 A.D., with a small number of colonies dating earlier. Overall, the peak ages of mortality are significantly correlated with maximum sea-surface temperature anomalies. Despite potential sampling bias, the frequency of mortality increased dramatically post-1980. These observations are similar to the results reported for the Southern South China Sea. High resolution measurements of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca obtained from a well preserved sample that died in 1994.6 ± 2.3 revealed that the time of death occurred at the peak of sea surface temperatures (SST) during the austral summer. In contrast, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca analysis in two colonies dated to 2006.9 ± 3.0 and 2008.3 ± 2.0, suggest that both died after the austral winter. An increase in Sr/Ca ratios and the presence of low Mg-calcite cements (as determined by SEM and elemental ratio analysis) in one of the colonies was attributed to stressful conditions that may have persisted for some time prior to mortality. For both colonies, however, the timing of mortality coincides with the 4th and 6th largest flood events reported for the Burdekin River in the past 60 years, implying that factors associated with terrestrial runoff may have been responsible for mortality. Our results show that a combination of U–Th and elemental ratio geochemistry can potentially be used to precisely and accurately determine the timing and season of mortality in modern massive Porites corals. For reefs where long-term monitoring data are absent, the ability to reconstruct historical events in coral communities may prove useful to reef managers by providing some baseline knowledge on disturbance history and associated drivers.

Analysis and modelling of the hydraulic conductivity in aquitards : application to the Galilee Basin and the Great Artesian Basin, Australia

In large sedimentary basins with layers of different rocks, the groundwater flow between aquifers depends on the hydraulic conductivity (K) of the separating low-permeable rocks, or aquitards. Three methods were developed to evaluate K in aquitards for areas with limited field data: • Coherence and harmonic analysis: estimates the regional-scale K based on water-level fluctuations in adjacent aquifers. • Cokriging and Bayes' rule: infers K from downhole geophysical logs. • Fluvial process model: reproduces the lithology architecture of sediment formations which can be converted to K. These proposed methods enable good estimates of K and better planning of further drillholes.