Baby-boom, baby-bust and the Great Depression

The baby-boom and subsequent baby-bust have shaped much of the history of the second half of the 20th century; yet it is still largely unclear what caused them. This paper presents a new unified explanation of the fertility Boom-Bust that links the latter to the Great Depression and the subsequent economic recovery. We show that the 1929 Crash attracted young married women 20 to 34 years old in 1930 (whom we name D-cohort) in the labor market possibly via an added worker effect. Using several years of Census micro data, we further document that the same cohort kept entering into the market in the 1940s and 1950s as economic conditions improved, decreasing wages and reducing work incentives for younger women. Its retirement in the late 1950s and in the 1960s instead freed positions and created employment opportunities. Finally, we show that the entry of the D-cohort is associated with increased births in the 1950s, while its retirement turned the fertility Boom into a Bust in the 1960s. The work behavior of this cohort explains a large share of the changes in both yearly births and completed fertility of all cohorts involved.

Stress testing credit risk: the Great Depression scenario

By employing Moody’s corporate default and rating transition data spanning the last 90 years we explore how much capital banks should hold against their corporate loan portfolios to withstand historical stress scenarios. Specifically, we will focus on the worst case scenario over the observation period, the Great Depression. We find that migration risk and the length of the investment horizon are critical factors when determining bank capital needs in a crisis. We show that capital may need to rise more than three times when the horizon is increased from 1 year, as required by current and future regulation, to 3 years. Increases are still important but of a lower magnitude when migration risk is introduced in the analysis. Further, we find that the new bank capital requirements under the so-called Basel 3 agreement would enable banks to absorb Great Depression-style losses. But, such losses would dent regulatory capital considerably and far beyond the capital buffers that have been proposed to ensure that banks survive crisis periods without government support.

Brazil and Turkey, a comparative analysis of both countries' economic development and institutional design from the Great Depression to the early 21st century

Apos uma década de rápido crescimento econômico na primeira década do século 21, Brasil e Turquia foram considerados duas das economias emergentes mais dinâmicas e promissoras. No entanto, vários sinais de dificuldades econômicas e tensões políticas reapareceram recentemente e simultaneamente nos dois países. Acreditamos que esses sinais e a sua simultaneidade podem ser entendidos melhor com um olhar retrospectivo sobre a história econômica dos dois países, que revela ser surpreendentemente paralela. Numa primeira parte, empreendemos uma comparação abrangente da história econômica brasileira e turca para mostrar as numerosas similaridades entre os desafios de política econômica que os dois países enfrentaram, assim como entre as respostas que eles lhes deram desde a virada da Grande Depressão até a primeira década do século 21. Essas escolhas de política econômica comuns dão forma a uma trajetória de desenvolvimento notavelmente análoga, caracterizada primeiro pela adoção do modelo de industrialização por substituição das importações (ISI) no contexto da recessão mundial dos anos 1930; depois pela intensificação e crise final desse modelo nos anos 1980; e finalmente por duas décadas de estabilização e transição para um modelo econômico mais liberal. Numa segunda parte, o desenvolvimento das instituições econômicas e políticas, assim como da economia política subjacente nos dois países, são analisados comparativamente a fim de prover alguns elementos de explicação do paralelo observado na primeira parte. Sustentamos que o marco institucional estabelecido nos dois países durante esse período também têm varias características fundamentais em comum e contribui a explicar as escolhas de política econômica e as performances econômicas comparáveis, detalhadas na primeira parte. Este estudo aborda elementos do contexto histórico úteis para compreender a situação econômica e política atual nos dois países. Potencialmente também constitui uma tentativa de considerar as economias emergentes numa perspectiva histórica e comparativa mais ampla para entender melhor as suas fraquezas institucionais e adotar um olhar mais equilibrado sobre seu potencial econômico.

What Ended the Great Depression? Re-Evaluating the Role of Fiscal Policy

Conventional wisdom contends that fiscal policy was of secondary importance for the economic recovery in the 1930s. The recovery is then connected to monetary policy that allowed non-sterilised gold inflows to increase the money supply. Often this is shown by measuring the fiscal multipliers and demonstrating that they were relatively small. This paper shows that problems with the conventional measures of fiscal multipliers in the 1930s may have created an incorrect consensus on the irrelevance of fiscal policy. The rehabilitation of fiscal policy is seen as a necessary step in the reinterpretation of the positive role of New Deal policies for the recovery.

Economic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations, and the change of macroeconomic regime

This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversión (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox "mIes of the game." However, the actual injections of liquidity were small' and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the "Keynes" effect was weak or negative. Rather, recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime,and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceivod a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the "Mundell" effect was dominant. Notably, this change of regime predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset externaI shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken .

Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

Unequally Unemployed: Labor Market Stratification After the Great Recession

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The crisis: a solemn appeal to the President, the Senate and House of representatives, and the citizens of the United States, on the destructive tendency of the present policy of this country, on its agriculture, manufactures, commerce, and finances. With a comparison between the extraordinary prosperity of Great Britain, and the general depression in the United States.

Sabin

The Great Albatross Philippine Expedition and Its Fishes

The Philippine Expedition of 1907-10 was the longest and most extensive assignment of the Albatross's 39-year career. It came about because the United States had acquired the Philippines following the Spanish-American War of 1898 and the bloody Philippine Insurection of 1899-1902. The purpose of the expedition was to surbey and assess the aquatic resources of the Philippine Islands. Dr. Hugh M. Smith, the Deputy Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Fisheries, was the Director of the Expedition. Other scientific participants were Frederick M. Chamberlain, Lewis Radcliffe, Paul Bartsch, Harry C. Fasset, Clarence Wells, Albert Burrows, Alvin Seale, and Roy Chapman Andrews. The expedition consisted of a series of cruises, each beginning and ending in Manila and exploring a different part of the island group. In addition to the Philippines proper, the ship also explored parts of the Dutch East Indies and areas around Hong Kong and Taiwan. The expedition returned great quantities of fish and invertebrate speciments as well as hydrographic and fisheries data; most of the material was eventually deposited in the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History. The fisehs were formally accessioned into the museum in 1922 and fell under the car of Barton A. Bean, Assistant Curator of Fishes, who then recruited Henry W. Fowler to work up the material. Fowler completed his studies of the entire collection, but only part of it was ever published, due in part to the economic constraints caused by the Depression. The material from the Philippine Expedition constituted the largest single accession of fishes ever received by the museum. These speciments are in good condition today and are still being used in scientific research.

A New robot for environmental monitoring on the Great Barrier Reef

A vast amount of research into autonomous underwater navigation has, and is, being conducted around the world. However, typical research and commercial platforms have limited autonomy and are generally unable to navigate efficiently within coral reef environments without tethers and significant external infrastructure. This paper outlines the development and presents experimental results into the performance evaluation of a new robotic vehicle for underwater monitoring and surveying in highly unstructured environments. The hybrid AUV design developed by the CSIRO robotic reef monitoring team realises a compromise between endurance, manoeuvrability and functionality. The vehicle represents a new era in AUV design specifically focused at providing a truly lowcost research capability that will progress environmental monitoring through unaided navigation, cooperative robotics, sensor network distribution and data harvesting.

'Kaikaku’ project management : investigating the Japanese answer to the 90s depression

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the Japanese answer to the 90s depression, both as a case study of what framework has been developed to address new business challenges and value creation in complex, ambiguous and uncertain environment; and in order to expose what are, in our view, the underlying theoretical bases supporting this framework. This theoretical approach, and the resulting lessons learned, is assumed to be helpful to transpose the Japanese experience to other analogical contexts and situations.