Pre-play communication and credibility: A test of Aumann's conjecture

The effectiveness of pre-play communication in achieving efficientoutcomes has long been a subject of controversy. In some environments,cheap talk may help to achieve coordination. However, Aumannconjectures that, in a variant of the Stag Hunt game, a signal forefficient play is not self-enforcing and concludes that an "agreementto play [the efficient outcome] conveys no information about what theplayers will do." Harsanyi and Selten (1988) cite this example as anillustration of risk-dominance vs. payoff-dominance. Farrell and Rabin(1996) agree with the logic, but suspect that cheap talk willnonetheless achieve efficiency. The conjecture is tested with one-waycommunication. When the sender first chooses a signal and then anaction, there is impressive coordination: a 94% probability for thepotentially efficient (but risky) play, given a signal for efficientplay. Without communication, efforts to achieve efficiency wereunsuccessful, as the proportion of B moves is only 35%. I also test ahypothesis that the order of the action and the signal affects theresults, finding that the decision order is indeed important. WhileAumann s conjecture is behaviorally disconfirmed when the signal isdetermined initially, the signal s credibility seems to be much moresuspect when the sender is known to have first chosen an action, andthe results are not statistically distinguishable from those whenthere is no signal. Some applications and issues in communication andcoordination are discussed.

Influence of credibility, warnings, and source-monitoring questions on the misinformation effect.

Introduction. Erroneous answers in studies on the misinformation effect (ME) can be reduced in different ways. In some studies, ME was reduced by SM questions, warnings, or a low credibility of the source of post-event information (PEI). Results are inconsistent, however. Of course, a participant can deliberately decide to refrain from reporting a critical item only when the difference between the original event and the PEI is distinguishable in principle. We were interested in the question to what extent the influence of erroneous information on a central aspect of the original event can be reduced by different means applied singly or in combination. Method. With a 2 (credibility; high vs. low) x 2 (warning; present vs. absent) between subjects design and an additional control group that received neither misinformation nor a warning (N = 116), we examined the above-mentioned factors’ influence on the ME. Participants viewed a short video of a robbery. The critical item suggested in the PEI was that the victim was given a kick by the perpetrator (which he was actually not). The memory test consisted of a two-forced-choice recognition test followed by a SM test. Results. To our surprise, neither a main effect of erroneous PEI nor a main effect of credibility was found. The error rates for the critical item in the control group (50%) as well as in the high (65%) and low (52%) credibility condition without warning did not significantly differ. A warning about possible misleading information in the PEI significantly reduced the influence of misinformation in both credibility conditions by 32-37%. Using a SM question significantly reduced the error rate too, but only in the high credibility no warning condition. Conclusion and Future Research. Our results show that, contrary to a warning or the use of a SM question, low source credibility did not reduce the ME. The most striking finding was, however, the absence of a main effect of erroneous PEI. Due to the high error rate in the control group, we suspect that the wrong answers might have been caused either by the response format (recognition test) or by autosuggestion possibly promoted by the high schema-consistency of the critical item. First results of a post-study in which we used open-ended questions before the recognition test support the former assumption. Results of a replication of this study using open-ended questions prior to the recognition test will be available by June.

Fault current test of a bifilar Bi-2212 bulk coil

A bifilar Bi-2212 bulk coil with parallel shunt resistor was tested under fault current condition using a 3 MVA single-phase transformer in a 220 V-60 Hz line achieving fault current peak of 8 kA. The fault current tests are performed from steady state peak current of 200 A by applying controlled short circuits up to 8 kA varying the time period from one to six cycles. The test results show the function of the shunt resistor providing homogeneous quench behavior of the HTS coil besides its intrinsic stabilizing role. The limiting current ratio achieves a factor 4.2 during 5 cycles without any degradation.

Test of a Modular Fault Current Limiter for 220 V Line Using YBCO Coated Conductor Tapes With Shunt Protection

A modular superconducting fault current limiter (SFCL) consisting of 16 elements was constructed and tested in a 220 V line for a fault current between 1 kA to 7.4 kA. The elements are made up of second generation (2G) YBCO-coated conductor tapes with stainless steel reinforcement. For each element four tapes were electrically connected in parallel with effective length of 0.4 m per element, totaling 16 elements connected in series. The evaluation of SFCL performance was carried out under DC and AC tests. The DC test was performed through pulsed current tests and its recovery characteristics under load current were analysed by changing the shunt resistor value. The AC test performed using a 3 MVA/220 V/60 Hz transformer has shown the current limiting ratio achieved a factor higher than 10 during fault of up to five cycles without conductor degradation. The measurement of the voltage for each element during the AC test showed that in this modular SFCL the quench is homogeneous and the transition occurs similarly in all the elements.

An evaluation, using the comet assay and the micronucleus test, of the antigenotoxic effects of chlorophyll b in mice

We investigated the effects of the dietary pigment chlorophyll b (CLb) on cisplatin (cDDP)-induced oxidative stress and DNA damage, using the comet assay in mouse peripheral blood cells and the micronucleus (MN) test in bone marrow and peripheral blood cells. We also tested for thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) and reduced glutathione (GSH) in liver and kidney tissues, as well as catalase (CAT) activity and GSH in total blood. CLb (0.2 and 0.5 mg/kg b.w.) was administrated by gavage every day for 13 days. On the 14th day of the experiment, 6 mg/kg cDDP or saline was delivered intraperitoneally. Treatment with cDDP led to a significant decrease in DNA migration and an increase in MN frequency in both cell types, bone marrow and peripheral blood cells. In the kidneys of mice treated with cDDP, TBARS levels were increased, whereas GSH levels were depleted in kidney and liver. In mice that were pretreated with CLb and then treated with cDDP, TBARS levels maintained normal concentrations and GSH did not differ from cDDP group. The improvement of oxidative stress biomarkers after CLb pre-treatment was associated with a decrease in DNA damage, mainly for the highest dose evaluated. Furthermore, CLb also slightly reduced the frequency of chromosomal breakage and micronucleus formation in mouse bone marrow and peripheral blood cells. These results show that pre-treatment with CLb attenuates cDDP-induced oxidative stress, chromosome instability, and lipid peroxidation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A test of competing explanations of compensation demanded

We find that prospect theory behavior is significantly more prevalent than utility theory behavior in experiments involving multiple, real items. In the experiments, subjects were endowed with three items and asked the minimum payments they required to be willing to return one, two, or three of them. Our key observation is that prospect theory implies concavity of compensation demanded, whereas utility theory implies convexity. We examine whether the compensation demanded is convex or concave in the number of items returned. (JEL C91).

Volunteer decision making by older people: A test of a revised theory of planned behavior

This study was designed to test the utility of a revised theory of planned behavior in the prediction of intentions to volunteer among older people. Such a perspective allowed for the consideration of a broader range of social and contextual factors than has been examined in previous research on volunteer decision making among older people. The article reports the findings from a study that investigated volunteer intentions and behavior in a random sample of older people aged 65 to 74 years living in an Australian capital city. Results showed that, as predicted by the revised theory of planned behavior, intention to volunteer predicted subsequent reported volunteer behavior. Intention was, in turn, predicted by social norms (both subjective and behavioral), perceived behavioral control, and moral obligation, with the effect of attitude being mediated through moral obligation.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Macroscopic test of quantum mechanics versus stochastic electrodynamics

We identify a test of quantum mechanics versus macroscopic local realism in the form of stochastic electrodynamics. The test uses the steady-state triple quadrature correlations of a parametric oscillator below threshold.

A test of the ash-free dry weight technique on the developmental stages of Patiriella spp. (Echinodermata : Asteroidea)

Determination of the ash-free dry weight (AFDW) of marine specimens requires samples to be rinsed, soaked, and centrifuged. Problems associated with this technique were examined with the developmental stages of seastar species (Patiriella) with different modes of development. The influence of three rinsing solutions (ammonium formate [AF], filtered seawater [FSW], and reverse osmosis water [RO]) was assessed. The hypothesis that the AFDW technique is a measure of organic material was addressed by drying inorganic salts. Developmental stages of Patiriella calcar rinsed in FSW were twice as heavy as those rinsed in RO or AE indicating that samples should be rinsed in RO or AF before weighing. Soaking treatments had a significant effect on the AFDW of samples of P. calcar (planktonic developer), indicating that the rinsing period should be brief. Zygotes of Patiriella re gularis (planktonic developer) were significantly heavier than ova or gastrulae, regardless of treatment. In contrast, there were no significant differences in the AFDW of any stages or treatments of Patiriella exigua (benthic developer). This may be due to the presence of a modified fertilization envelope, which protects these benthic embryos. Inorganic salts with water of crystallization and FSW lost 20-75% and 14% of their dry weight, respectively, after ashing. We propose that salt ions may retain water, which does not evaporate during drying but is lost during ashing, resulting in the overestimation of sample AFDW. If a similar process occurs in the developmental stages of marine invertebrates, changes in the intracellular ionic composition through development may result in inaccurate estimates of biomass.

Field test of a model of migration of moths (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in inland Australia

A migration of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), Heliothis punctifera (Walker) and Agrotis munda Walker was tracked from Cameron Corner (29degrees00'S, 141degrees00'E) in inland Australia to the Wilcannia region, approximately 400 km to the south-east. A relatively isolated source population was located using a distribution model to predict winter breeding, and confirmed by surveys using sweep netting for larvae. When a synoptic weather pattern likely to produce suitable conditions for migration developed, moths were trapped in the source region. The next morning a simulation model of migration using wind-field data generated by a numerical weather-prediction model was run. Surveys using sweep netting for larvae, trapping and flush counts were then conducted in and around the predicted moth fallout area, approximately 400 km to the south-east. Pollen carried on the probosces of moths caught in this area was compared with that on moths caught in the source area. The survey data and pollen comparisons provided evidence that migration had occurred, and that the migration model gave accurate estimation of the fallout region. The ecological and economic implications of such migrations are discussed.