Syndromic surveillance: etiologic study of acute febrile illness in dengue suspicious cases with negative serology. Brazil, Federal District, 2008

With the aim of identifying the etiology of acute febrile illness in patients suspected of having dengue, yet with non reagent serum, a descriptive study was conducted with 144 people using secondary serum samples collected during convalescence. The study was conducted between January and May of 2008. All the exams were re-tested for dengue, which was confirmed in 11.8% (n = 17); the samples that remained negative for dengue (n = 127) were tested for rubella, with 3.9% (n = 5) positive results. Among those non reactive for rubella (n = 122), tests were made for leptospirosis and hantavirus. Positive tests for leptospirosis were 13.9% (n = 17) and none for hantavirus. Non reactive results (70.8%) were considered as Indefinite Febrile Illness (IFI). Low schooling was statistically associated with dengue, rubella and leptospirosis (p = 0.009), dyspnea was statistically associated with dengue and leptospirosis (p = 0.012), and exanthem/petechia with dengue and rubella (p = 0.001). Among those with leptospirosis, activities in empty or vacant lots showed statistical association with the disease (p = 0.013). Syndromic surveillance was shown to be an important tool in the etiologic identification of IFI in the Federal District of Brazil.

Inventory of veterinary syndromic surveillance initiatives in Europe (Triple-S project): current situation and perspectives.

Within the current context that favours the emergence of new diseases, syndromic surveillance (SyS) appears increasingly more relevant tool for the early detection of unexpected health events. The Triple-S project (Syndromic Surveillance Systems in Europe), co-financed by the European Commission, was launched in September 2010 for a three year period to promote both human and animal health SyS in European countries. Objectives of the project included performing an inventory of current and planned European animal health SyS systems and promoting knowledge transfer between SyS experts. This study presents and discusses the results of the Triple-S inventory of European veterinary SyS initiatives. European SyS systems were identified through an active process based on a questionnaire sent to animal health experts involved in SyS in Europe. Results were analyzed through a descriptive analysis and a multiple factor analysis (MFA) in order to establish a typology of the European SyS initiatives. Twenty seven European SyS systems were identified from twelve countries, at different levels of development, from project phase to active systems. Results of this inventory showed a real interest of European countries for SyS but also highlighted the novelty of this field. This survey highlighted the diversity of SyS systems in Europe in terms of objectives, population targeted, data providers, indicators monitored. For most SyS initiatives, statistical analysis of surveillance results was identified as a limitation in using the data. MFA results distinguished two types of systems. The first one belonged to the private sector, focused on companion animals and had reached a higher degree of achievement. The second one was based on mandatory collected data, targeted livestock species and is still in an early project phase. The exchange of knowledge between human and animal health sectors was considered useful to enhance SyS. In the same way that SyS is complementary to traditional surveillance, synergies between human and animal health SyS could be an added value, most notably to enhance timeliness, sensitivity and help interpreting non-specific signals.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

A practical approach to designing syndromic surveillance systems for livestock and poultry

The field of animal syndromic surveillance (SyS) is growing, with many systems being developed worldwide. Now is an appropriate time to share ideas and lessons learned from early SyS design and implementation. Based on our practical experience in animal health SyS, with additions from the public health and animal health SyS literature, we put forward for discussion a 6-step approach to designing SyS systems for livestock and poultry. The first step is to formalise policy and surveillance goals which are considerate of stakeholder expectations and reflect priority issues (1). Next, it is important to find consensus on national priority diseases and identify current surveillance gaps. The geographic, demographic, and temporal coverage of the system must be carefully assessed (2). A minimum dataset for SyS that includes the essential data to achieve all surveillance objectives while minimizing the amount of data collected should be defined. One can then compile an inventory of the data sources available and evaluate each using the criteria developed (3). A list of syndromes should then be produced for all data sources. Cases can be classified into syndrome classes and the data can be converted into time series (4). Based on the characteristics of the syndrome-time series, the length of historic data available and the type of outbreaks the system must detect, different aberration detection algorithms can be tested (5). Finally, it is essential to develop a minimally acceptable response protocol for each statistical signal produced (6). Important outcomes of this pre-operational phase should be building of a national network of experts and collective action and evaluation plans. While some of the more applied steps (4 and 5) are currently receiving consideration, more emphasis should be put on earlier conceptual steps by decision makers and surveillance developers (1-3).

Evaluation of Swiss slaughterhouse data for integration in a syndromic surveillance system

BACKGROUND: We evaluated Swiss slaughterhouse data for integration in a national syndromic surveillance system for the early detection of emerging diseases in production animals. We analysed meat inspection data for cattle, pigs and small ruminants slaughtered between 2007 and 2012 (including emergency slaughters of sick/injured animals); investigating patterns in the number of animals slaughtered and condemned; the reasons invoked for whole carcass condemnations; reporting biases and regional effects. RESULTS: Whole carcass condemnation rates were fairly uniform (1-2‰) over time and between the different types of production animals. Condemnation rates were much higher and less uniform following emergency slaughters. The number of condemnations peaked in December for both cattle and pigs, a time when individuals of lower quality are sent to slaughter when hay and food are limited and when certain diseases are more prevalent. Each type of production animal was associated with a different profile of condemnation reasons. The most commonly reported one was "severe lesions" for cattle, "abscesses" for pigs and "pronounced weight loss" for small ruminants. These reasons could constitute valuable syndromic indicators as they are unspecific clinical manifestations of a large range of animal diseases (as well as potential indicators of animal welfare). Differences were detected in the rate of carcass condemnation between cantons and between large and small slaughterhouses. A large percentage (>60% for all three animal categories) of slaughterhouses operating never reported a condemnation between 2007 and 2012, a potential indicator of widespread non-reporting bias in our database. CONCLUSIONS: The current system offers simultaneous coverage of cattle, pigs and small ruminants for the whole of Switzerland; and traceability of each condemnation to its farm of origin. The number of condemnations was significantly linked to the number of slaughters, meaning that the former should be always be offset by the later in analyses. Because this denominator is only communicated at the end of the month, condemnations may currently only be monitored on a monthly basis. Coupled with the lack of timeliness (30-60 days delay between condemnation and notification), this limits the use of the data for early-detection.

Investigating the potential of reported cattle mortality data in Switzerland for syndromic surveillance

Systems for the identification and registration of cattle have gradually been receiving attention for use in syndromic surveillance, a relatively recent approach for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks. Real or near real-time monitoring of deaths or stillbirths reported to these systems offer an opportunity to detect temporal or spatial clusters of increased mortality that could be caused by an infectious disease epidemic. In Switzerland, such data are recorded in the "Tierverkehrsdatenbank" (TVD). To investigate the potential of the Swiss TVD for syndromic surveillance, 3 years of data (2009-2011) were assessed in terms of data quality, including timeliness of reporting and completeness of geographic data. Two time-series consisting of reported on-farm deaths and stillbirths were retrospectively analysed to define and quantify the temporal patterns that result from non-health related factors. Geographic data were almost always present in the TVD data; often at different spatial scales. On-farm deaths were reported to the database by farmers in a timely fashion; stillbirths were less timely. Timeliness and geographic coverage are two important features of disease surveillance systems, highlighting the suitability of the TVD for use in a syndromic surveillance system. Both time series exhibited different temporal patterns that were associated with non-health related factors. To avoid false positive signals, these patterns need to be removed from the data or accounted for in some way before applying aberration detection algorithms in real-time. Evaluating mortality data reported to systems for the identification and registration of cattle is of value for comparing national data systems and as a first step towards a European-wide early detection system for emerging and re-emerging cattle diseases.

Comparison of whole carcass condemnation and partial carcass condemnation data for integration in a national syndromic surveillance system: The Swiss experience

We obtained partial carcass condemnation (PCC) data for cattle (2009-2010) from a Swiss slaughterhouse. Data on whole carcass condemnations (WCC) carried out at the same slaughterhouse over those years were extracted from the national database for meat inspection. We found that given the differences observed in the WCC and PCC time series, it is likely that both indicators respond to different health events in the population and that one cannot be substituted by the other. Because PCC recordings are promising for syndromic surveillance, the meat inspection database should be capable to record both WCC and PCC data in the future. However, a standardised list of reasons for PCC needs to be defined and used nationwide in all slaughterhouses.

A simulation study on the statistical monitoring of condemnation rates from slaughterhouses for syndromic surveillance: an evaluation based on Swiss data

Syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems currently exploit various sources of health-related data, most of which are collected for purposes other than surveillance (e.g. economic). Several European SyS systems use data collected during meat inspection for syndromic surveillance of animal health, as some diseases may be more easily detected post-mortem than at their point of origin or during the ante-mortem inspection upon arrival at the slaughterhouse. In this paper we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a quasi-Poisson regression (also known as an improved Farrington) algorithm for the detection of disease outbreaks during post-mortem inspection of slaughtered animals. When parameterizing the algorithm based on the retrospective analyses of 6 years of historic data, the probability of detection was satisfactory for large (range 83-445 cases) outbreaks but poor for small (range 20-177 cases) outbreaks. Varying the amount of historical data used to fit the algorithm can help increasing the probability of detection for small outbreaks. However, while the use of a 0·975 quantile generated a low false-positive rate, in most cases, more than 50% of outbreak cases had already occurred at the time of detection. High variance observed in the whole carcass condemnations time-series, and lack of flexibility in terms of the temporal distribution of simulated outbreaks resulting from low reporting frequency (monthly), constitute major challenges for early detection of outbreaks in the livestock population based on meat inspection data. Reporting frequency should be increased in the future to improve timeliness of the SyS system while increased sensitivity may be achieved by integrating meat inspection data into a multivariate system simultaneously evaluating multiple sources of data on livestock health.

Syndromic surveillance at a long term shelter for persons displaced by hurricanes Katrina and Rita conducted by the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District

Background. Beginning September 2, 2005, San Antonio area shelters received approximately 12,700 evacuees from Hurricane Katrina. Two weeks later, another 12,000 evacuees from Hurricane Rita arrived. By mid-October, 2005, the in-shelter population was 1,000 people. There was concern regarding the potential for spread of infectious diseases in the shelter. San Antonio Metropolitan Health District (SAMHD) established a syndromic surveillance system with Comprehensive Health Services (CHS) who provided on-site health care. CHS was in daily contact with SAMHD to report symptoms of concern until the shelter closed December 23, 2005. ^ Study type. The objective of this study was to assess the methods used and describe the practical considerations involved in establishing and managing a syndromic surveillance system, as established by the SAMHD in the long-term shelter clinic maintained by CHS for the hurricane evacuees. ^ Methods. Information and descriptive data used in this study was collected from multiple sources, primarily from the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District’s 2006 Report on Syndromic Surveillance of a Long-Term Shelter by Hausler & Rohr-Allegrini. SAMHD and CHS staff ensured that each clinic visit was recorded by date, demographic information, chief complaint and medical disposition. Logs were obtained daily and subsequently entered into a Microsoft Access database and analyzed in Excel. ^ Results. During a nine week period, 4,913 clinic visits were recorded, reviewed and later analyzed. Repeat visits comprised 93.0% of encounters. Chronic illnesses contributed to 21.7% of the visits. Approximately 54.0% were acute care encounters. Of all encounters, 17.3% had infectious disease potential as primarily gastrointestinal and respiratory syndromes. Evacuees accounted for 86% and staff 14% of all visits to the shelter clinic. There were 782 unduplicated individuals who sought services at the clinic, comprised of 63% (496) evacuees and 36% (278) staff members. Staff were more likely to frequent the clinic but for fewer visits each. ^ Conclusion. The presence of health care services and syndromic surveillance provided the opportunity to recognize, document and intervene in any disease outbreak at this long-term shelter. Constant vigilance allowed SAMHD to inform and reassure concerned people living and working in the shelter and living outside the shelter.^

The potential utility of age, triage score, and disposition data contained in emergency department electronic records for influenza-like illness surveillance in Montreal

La surveillance de l’influenza s’appuie sur un large spectre de données, dont les données de surveillance syndromique provenant des salles d’urgences. De plus en plus de variables sont enregistrées dans les dossiers électroniques des urgences et mises à la disposition des équipes de surveillance. L’objectif principal de ce mémoire est d’évaluer l’utilité potentielle de l’âge, de la catégorie de triage et de l’orientation au départ de l’urgence pour améliorer la surveillance de la morbidité liée aux cas sévères d’influenza. Les données d’un sous-ensemble des hôpitaux de Montréal ont été utilisées, d’avril 2006 à janvier 2011. Les hospitalisations avec diagnostic de pneumonie ou influenza ont été utilisées comme mesure de la morbidité liée aux cas sévères d’influenza, et ont été modélisées par régression binomiale négative, en tenant compte des tendances séculaires et saisonnières. En comparaison avec les visites avec syndrome d’allure grippale (SAG) totales, les visites avec SAG stratifiées par âge, par catégorie de triage et par orientation de départ ont amélioré le modèle prédictif des hospitalisations avec pneumonie ou influenza. Avant d’intégrer ces variables dans le système de surveillance de Montréal, des étapes additionnelles sont suggérées, incluant l’optimisation de la définition du syndrome d’allure grippale à utiliser, la confirmation de la valeur de ces prédicteurs avec de nouvelles données et l’évaluation de leur utilité pratique.

Investigation of measles IgM-seropositive cases of febrile rash illnesses in the absence of documented measles virus transmission, State of São Paulo, Brazil, 2000-2004

Introdução: Revisar os casos de doenças febris exantemáticas com IgM reagente contra o sarampo, no estado de São Paulo, Brasil, durante os cinco anos seguidos a interrupção da transmissão do vírus do sarampo. Métodos: Nós revisamos 463 casos de doenças febris exantemáticas com IgM reagente contra o sarampo, no estado de São Paulo, Brasil, de 2000 a 2004. Indivíduos vacinados contra o sarampo 56 dias antes da coleta de amostra foram considerados expostos à vacina. Soros da fase aguda e de convalescença foram testados para a evidência de infecção de sarampo, rubéola, parvovírus B19 e herpes vírus 6. Na ausência de soroconversão para imunoglobulina G contra o sarampo, casos com IgM reagente contra o sarampo foram considerados falsos positivos em pessoas com evidência de outras infecções virais. Resultados: Entre as 463 pessoas com doenças febris exantemáticas que testaram positivo para anticorpos IgM contra o sarampo durante o período, 297 (64 por cento) pessoas foram classificadas como expostas à vacina. Entre os 166 casos não expostos à vacina, 109 (66 por cento) foram considerados falsos positivos baseado na ausência de soroconversão, dos quais 21 (13 por cento) tiveram evidência de infecção por vírus da rubéola, 49 (30 por cento) parvovírus B19 e 28 (17 por cento) infecção por herpes vírus humano 6. Conclusões: Após a interrupção da transmissão do vírus do sarampo é necessária exaustiva investigação dos casos com IgM reagente contra o sarampo, especialmente dos casos não expostos à vacina. Testes laboratoriais para etiologias das doenças febris exantemáticas ajudam na interpretação destes casos

Investigation of measles IgM-seropositive cases of febrile rash illnesses in the absence of documented measles virus transmission, State of São Paulo, Brazil, 2000-2004

INTRODUCTION: To review measles IgM-positive cases of febrile rash illnesses in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, over the five-year period following interruption of measles virus transmission. METHODS: We reviewed 463 measles IgM-positive cases of febrile rash illness in the State of São Paulo, from 2000 to 2004. Individuals vaccinated against measles < 56 days prior to specimen collection were considered to be exposed to the vaccine. Serum from the acute and convalescent phases was tested for evidence of measles, rubella, parvovirus B19 and human herpes virus-6 infection. In the absence of seroconversion to measles immunoglobulin-G, measles IgM-positive cases were considered false positives in individuals with evidence of other viral infections. RESULTS: Among the 463 individuals with febrile rash illness who tested positive for measles IgM antibodies during the period, 297 (64%) were classified as exposed to the vaccine. Among the 166 cases that were not exposed to the vaccine, 109 (66%) were considered false positives based on the absence of seroconversion, among which 21 (13%) had evidence of rubella virus infection, 49 (30%) parvovirus B19 and 28 (17%) human herpes virus-6 infection. CONCLUSIONS: Following the interruption of measles virus transmission, thorough investigation of measles IgM-positive cases is required, especially among cases not exposed to the vaccine. Laboratory testing for etiologies of febrile rash illness aids interpretation of these cases.

Arboviral diseases in the Western Brazilian Amazon: a perspective and analysis from a tertiary health & research center in Manaus, State of Amazonas

The Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado (FMT-HVD), located in Manaus, the capital of the State of Amazonas (Western Brazilian Amazon), is a pioneering institution in this region regarding the syndromic surveillance of acute febrile illness, including arboviral infections. Based on the data from patients at the FMT-HVD, we have detected recurrent outbreaks in Manaus by the four dengue serotypes in the past 15 years, with increasing severity of the disease. This endemicity has culminated in the simultaneous circulation of all four serotypes in 2011, the first time this has been reported in Brazil. Between 1996 and 2009, 42 cases of yellow fever (YF) were registered in the State of Amazonas, and 71.4% (30/42) were fatal. Since 2010, no cases have been reported. Because the introduction of the yellow fever virus into a large city such as Manaus, which is widely infested by Aedes mosquitoes, may pose a real risk of a yellow fever outbreak, efforts to maintain an appropriate immunization policy for the populace are critical. Manaus has also suffered silent outbreaks of Mayaro and Oropouche fevers lately, most of which were misdiagnosed as dengue fever. The tropical conditions of the State of Amazonas favor the existence of other arboviruses capable of producing human disease. Under this real threat, represented by at least 4 arboviruses producing human infections in Manaus and in other neighboring countries, it is important to develop an efficient public health surveillance strategy, including laboratories that are able to make proper diagnoses of arboviruses.

Future pandemic influenza control (FPIC) related strategic management plan based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza review of health policy decisions, their practice and implications

This cross-sectional study is based on the qualitative and quantitative research design to review health policy decisions, their practice and implications during 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in the United States and globally. The “Future Pandemic Influenza Control (FPIC) related Strategic Management Plan” was developed based on the incorporation of the “National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (2005)” for the United States from the U.S. Homeland Security Council and “The Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan for the Health Sector (2006)” from the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Committee for use by the public health agencies in the United States as well as globally. The “global influenza experts’ survey” was primarily designed and administered via email through the “Survey Monkey” system to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic experts as the study respondents. The effectiveness of this plan was confirmed and the approach of the study questionnaire was validated to be convenient and the excellent quality of the questions provided an efficient opportunity to the study respondents to evaluate the effectiveness of predefined strategies/interventions for future pandemic influenza control.^ The quantitative analysis of the responses to the Likert-scale based questions in the survey about predefined strategies/interventions, addressing five strategic issues to control future pandemic influenza. The effectiveness of strategies defined as pertinent interventions in this plan was evaluated by targeting five strategic issues regarding pandemic influenza control. For the first strategic issue pertaining influenza prevention and pre pandemic planning; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for strategy (1a) 87.5%, strategy (1b) 91.7% and strategy (1c) 83.3%. The assessment of the priority level for strategies to address the strategic issue no. (1); (1b (High Priority) > 1a (Medium Priority) > 1c (Low Priority) based on the available resources of the developing and developed countries. For the second Strategic Issue encompassing the preparedness and communication regarding pandemic influenza control; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (2a) 95.6%, strategy (2b) 82.6%, strategy (2c) 91.3% and Strategy (2d) 87.0%. The assessment of the priority level for these strategies to address the strategic issue no. (2); (2a (highest priority) > 2c (high priority) >2d (medium priority) > 2b (low priority). For the third strategic issue encompassing the surveillance and detection of pandemic influenza; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (3a) 90.9% and strategy (3b) 77.3%. The assessment of the priority level for theses strategies to address the strategic Issue No. (3) (3a (high priority) > 3b (medium/low priority). For the fourth strategic issue pertaining the response and containment of pandemic influenza; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (4a) 63.6%, strategy (4b) 81.8%, strategy (4c) 86.3%, and strategy (4d) 86.4%. The assessment of the priority level for these strategies to address the strategic issue no. (4); (4d (highest priority) > 4c (high priority) > 4b (medium priority) > 4a (low priority). The fifth strategic issue about recovery from influenza and post pandemic planning; the confirmed effectiveness (agreement) for the strategy (5a) 68.2%, strategy (5b) 36.3% and strategy (5c) 40.9%. The assessment of the priority level for strategies to address the strategic issue no. (5); (5a (high priority) > 5c (medium priority) > 5b (low priority).^ The qualitative analysis of responses to the open-ended questions in the study questionnaire was performed by means of thematic content analysis. The following recurrent or common “themes” were determined for the future implementation of various predefined strategies to address five strategic issues from the “FPIC related Strategic Management Plan” to control future influenza pandemics. (1) Pre Pandemic Influenza Prevention, (2) Seasonal Influenza Control, (3) Cost Effectiveness of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI), (4) Raising Global Public Awareness, (5) Global Influenza Vaccination Campaigns, (6)Priority for High Risk Population, (7) Prompt Accessibility and Distribution of Influenza Vaccines and Antiviral Drugs, (8) The Vital Role of Private Sector, (9) School Based Influenza Containment, (10) Efficient Global Risk Communication, (11) Global Research Collaboration, (12) The Critical Role of Global Public Health Organizations, (13) Global Syndromic Surveillance and Surge Capacity and (14) Post Pandemic Recovery and Lessons Learned. The future implementation of these strategies with confirmed effectiveness to primarily “reduce the overall response time’ in the process of ‘early detection’, ‘strategies (interventions) formulation’ and their ‘implementation’ to eventually ensure the following health outcomes: (a) reduced influenza transmission, (b) prompt and effective influenza treatment and control, (c) reduced influenza related morbidity and mortality.^