Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyzing university spin-offs and supporting decision making in new venture creation

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2008

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Supporting decision-making for self-adaptive systems:from goal models to dynamic decision networks

Context/Motivation - Different modeling techniques have been used to model requirements and decision-making of self-adaptive systems (SASs). Specifically, goal models have been prolific in supporting decision-making depending on partial and total fulfilment of functional (goals) and non-functional requirements (softgoals). Different goalrealization strategies can have different effects on softgoals which are specified with weighted contribution-links. The final decision about what strategy to use is based, among other reasons, on a utility function that takes into account the weighted sum of the different effects on softgoals. Questions/Problems - One of the main challenges about decisionmaking in self-adaptive systems is to deal with uncertainty during runtime. New techniques are needed to systematically revise the current model when empirical evidence becomes available from the deployment. Principal ideas/results - In this paper we enrich the decision-making supported by goal models by using Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs). Goal realization strategies and their impact on softgoals have a correspondence with decision alternatives and conditional probabilities and expected utilities in the DDNs respectively. Our novel approach allows the specification of preferences over the softgoals and supports reasoning about partial satisfaction of softgoals using probabilities. We report results of the application of the approach on two different cases. Our early results suggest the decision-making process of SASs can be improved by using DDNs. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

The InterActive Choice Aid: A new approach to supporting online consumer decision making

Interactive Choice Aid (ICA) is a decision aid, introduced in this paper, that systematically assists consumers with online purchase decisions. ICA integrates aspects from prescriptive decision theory, insights from descriptive decision research, and practical considerations; thereby combining pre-existing best practices with novel features. Instead of imposing an objectively ideal but unnatural decision procedure on the user, ICA assists the natural process of human decision-making by providing explicit support for the execution of the user's decision strategies. The application contains an innovative feature for in-depth comparisons of alternatives through which users' importance ratings are elicited interactively and in a playful way. The usability and general acceptance of the choice aid was studied; results show that ICA is a promising contribution and provides insights that may further improve its usability.

CORD an object model supporting statistical summary information for management decision making

Information systems have developed to the stage that there is plenty of data available in most organisations but there are still major problems in turning that data into information for management decision making. This thesis argues that the link between decision support information and transaction processing data should be through a common object model which reflects the real world of the organisation and encompasses the artefacts of the information system. The CORD (Collections, Objects, Roles and Domains) model is developed which is richer in appropriate modelling abstractions than current Object Models. A flexible Object Prototyping tool based on a Semantic Data Storage Manager has been developed which enables a variety of models to be stored and experimented with. A statistical summary table model COST (Collections of Objects Statistical Table) has been developed within CORD and is shown to be adequate to meet the modelling needs of Decision Support and Executive Information Systems. The COST model is supported by a statistical table creator and editor COSTed which is also built on top of the Object Prototyper and uses the CORD model to manage its metadata.

Vezetési és döntési rendszerek a versenyképesség szolgálatában - Összefoglaló a Vezetési és döntési rendszerek kutatócsoport munkájáról = Management and decision making systems supporting competitiveness

A „Vezetési és döntési rendszerek” alprojekt kutatói a döntéshozatal minőségének és a versenyképességnek a kapcsolatát vizsgálták. Alapkérdésünk az volt, hogy mely vállalatok a sikeresebbek, azok, amelyek a döntéshozatali közelítésmódok közül a szigorúan racionális, analitikus gondolkodást, felfogást favorizálják, vagy inkább a kreativitást ösztönző és középpontba állító, a kreatív döntéshozatali és vezetési stílust követő cégek. Azt tapasztaltuk, hogy a vállalatok menedzsmentjének egyre többször kell megbirkóznia vészhelyzetekkel és azok következményeivel. Az üzleti döntések és az üzleti teljesítmény, az üzleti siker kapcsolatának vizsgálatára külön kutatási irányt jelöltünk meg. A felelős döntéshozatal témakörében a mi kutatásunk a konkrét döntéseket helyezte előtérbe, amely új közelítésmódot jelent. Ugyanis nem csak specifikus CSR gyakorlatokkal foglalkoztunk, hanem konkrét vezetői döntésekben vizsgáltuk meg a CSR és a fenntarthatóság elemeit. ______ Within the framework of the “Management and decision-making systems” subproject we investigated the link between the quality of decision making and competitiveness. Our basic question was the following: which companies are more successful, those who are strictly follow the rational/analytical way of decision making or the others who mainly focus on creative decision making and creative management. We found that nowadays the company managements more often face to crisis situations and their consequences. We initiated a focused research on the relationship of the business decision making, business performance and business success. When we did research in the field of the responsible decision making we focused on concrete decision cases, that was a brand new approach. We have not analyzed the CSR practice, but identified CSR and sustainability elements in concrete management decisions.

Context-aware emotion-based model for group decision making

Involving groups in important management processes such as decision making has several advantages. By discussing and combining ideas, counter ideas, critical opinions, identified constraints, and alternatives, a group of individuals can test potentially better solutions, sometimes in the form of new products, services, and plans. In the past few decades, operations research, AI, and computer science have had tremendous success creating software systems that can achieve optimal solutions, even for complex problems. The only drawback is that people don’t always agree with these solutions. Sometimes this dissatisfaction is due to an incorrect parameterization of the problem. Nevertheless, the reasons people don’t like a solution might not be quantifiable, because those reasons are often based on aspects such as emotion, mood, and personality. At the same time, monolithic individual decisionsupport systems centered on optimizing solutions are being replaced by collaborative systems and group decision-support systems (GDSSs) that focus more on establishing connections between people in organizations. These systems follow a kind of social paradigm. Combining both optimization- and socialcentered approaches is a topic of current research. However, even if such a hybrid approach can be developed, it will still miss an essential point: the emotional nature of group participants in decision-making tasks. We’ve developed a context-aware emotion based model to design intelligent agents for group decision-making processes. To evaluate this model, we’ve incorporated it in an agent-based simulator called ABS4GD (Agent-Based Simulation for Group Decision), which we developed. This multiagent simulator considers emotion- and argument based factors while supporting group decision-making processes. Experiments show that agents endowed with emotional awareness achieve agreements more quickly than those without such awareness. Hence, participant agents that integrate emotional factors in their judgments can be more successful because, in exchanging arguments with other agents, they consider the emotional nature of group decision making.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Patients' preferences on information and involvement in decision making for gastrointestinal surgery.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between physicians and patients has undergone important changes, and the current emancipation of patients has led to a real partnership in medical decision making. The present study aimed to assess patients' preferences on different aspects of decision making during treatment and potential complications, as well as the amount and type of preoperative information wanted before visceral surgery. METHODS: This was a prospective non-randomized study based on a questionnaire given to 253 consecutive patients scheduled for elective gastrointestinal surgery. RESULTS: In considering surgical complications or treatment in the intensive care unit, 64 % of patients wished to take an active role in any medical decisions. The respective figures for cardiac resuscitation and treatment limitations were 89 and 60 %. As for information, 73, 77, and 47 % of patients wish detailed information, information on a potential ICU hospitalization, and knowledge of cardiac resuscitation, respectively. Elderly and low-educated patients were significantly less interested in shared medical decision making (p = 0.003 and 0.015), and in receiving information (p = 0.03 and 0.05). Similarly, involvement of the family in decision making was significantly less important to elderly and male patients (p = 0.05 and 0.03, respectively). Neither the type of operation (minor or major) nor the severity of disease (malignancies versus non-malignancies) was a significant factor for shared decision making, information, or family involvement. CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of surgical patients clearly want to get adequate preoperative information about their disease and the planned treatment. They also consider it crucial to be involved in any kind of decision making for treatment and complications. For most patients, the family role is limited to supporting the treating physicians if the patient is unable to participate in decision making.

Clinical utility of a molecular test in adjuvant treatment decision making in women with endocrine-sensitive early stage breast cancer: a retrospective, single center one year experience

Background. Molecular tests for breast cancer (BC) risk assessment are reimbursed by health insurances in Switzerland since the beginning of year 2015. The main current role of these tests is to help oncologists to decide about the usefulness of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with early stage endocrine-sensitive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative BC. These gene expression signatures aim at predicting the risk of recurrence in this subgroup. One of them (OncotypeDx/OT) also predicts distant metastases rate with or without the addition of cytotoxic chemotherapy to endocrine therapy. The clinical utility of these tests -in addition to existing so-called "clinico-pathological" prognostic and predictive criteria (e.g. stage, grade, biomarkers status)-is still debated. We report a single center one year experience of the use of one molecular test (OT) in clinical decision making. Methods. We extracted from the CHUV Breast Cancer Center data base the total number of BC cases with estrogen-receptor positive (ER+), HER2-negative early breast cancer (node negative (pN0) disease or micrometastases in up to 3 lymph nodes) operated between September 2014 and August 2015. For the cases from this group in which a molecular test had been decided by the tumor board, we collected the clinicopathologic parameters, the initial tumor board decision, and the final adjuvant systemic therapy decision. Results. A molecular test (OT) was done in 12.2% of patients with ER + HER2 negative early BC. The median age was 57.4 years and the median invasive tumor size was 1.7 cm. These patients were classified by ODX testing (Recurrence Score) into low-, intermediate-, and high risk groups, respectively in 27.2%, 63.6% and 9% of cases. Treatment recommendations changed in 18.2%, predominantly from chemotherapyendocrine therapy to endocrine treatment alone. Of 8 patients originally recommended chemotherapy, 25% were recommended endocrine treatment alone after receiving the Recurrence Score result. Conclusions. Though reimbursed by health insurances since January 2015, molecular tests are used moderately in our institution as per the decision of the multidisciplinary tumor board. It's mainly used to obtain a complementary confirmation supporting the decision of no chemotherapy. The OncotypeDx Recurrence Score results were in the intermediate group in 66% of the 9 tested cases but contributed to avoid chemotherapy in 2 patients during the last 12 months.

Decision making and decision support in service systems

This thesis is a literature study that develops a conceptual model of decision making and decision support in service systems. The study is related to the Ä-Logi, Intelligent Service Logic for Welfare Sector Services research project, and the objective of the study is to develop the necessary theoretical framework to enable further research based on the research project results and material. The study first examines the concepts of service and service systems, focusing on understanding the characteristics of service systems and their implications for decision making and decision support to provide the basis for the development of the conceptual model. Based on the identified service system characteristics, an integrated model of service systems is proposed that views service systems through a number of interrelated perspectives that each offer different, but complementary, implications on the nature of decision making and the requirements for decision support in service systems. Based on the model, it is proposed that different types of decision making contexts can be identified in service systems that may be dominated by different types of decision making processes and where different types of decision support may be required, depending on the characteristics of the decision making context and its decision making processes. The proposed conceptual model of decision making and decision support in service systems examines the characteristics of decision making contexts and processes in service systems, and their typical requirements for decision support. First, a characterization of different types of decision making contexts in service systems is proposed based on the Cynefin framework and the identified service system characteristics. Second, the nature of decision making processes in service systems is proposed to be dual, with both rational and naturalistic decision making processes existing in service systems, and having an important and complementary role in decision making in service systems. Finally, a characterization of typical requirements for decision support in service systems is proposed that examines the decision support requirements associated with different types of decision making processes in characteristically different types of decision making contexts. It is proposed that decision support for the decision making processes that are based on rational decision making can be based on organizational decision support models, while decision support for the decision making processes that are based on naturalistic decision making should be based on supporting the decision makers’ situation awareness and facilitating the development of their tacit knowledge of the system and its tasks. Based on the proposed conceptual model a further research process is proposed. The study additionally provides a number of new perspectives on the characteristics of service systems, and the nature of decision making and requirements for decision support in service systems that can potentially provide a basis for further discussion and research, and support the practice alike.

Exploring the Ethical Decision-Making Processes of Community Care Providers

While there has been a recent shift away from isolated, institutionalized living conditions, persons with Intellectual Disabilities (ID) may still experience restricted access to choice when it comes to making decisions about the basic aspects of their lives. A tension remains between protecting individuals from harm and promoting their right to independence and personal liberties. This tension creates complex questions and ethical concerns for care providers supporting persons with ID. This study explored the ethical decision-making processes of care providers and specifically, how care providers describe the balance of protecting supported individuals from harm while promoting their right to self-determination. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six care providers employed by a local community agency that supports young and older adults with ID. Data were analysed using thematic analysis and broader themes were developed following phases of open and selective coding. Results indicated that care providers described ethical decision-making processes as frequent, complex, subjective, and uncomfortable. All participants described the importance of promoting independent decision-making among the individuals they support and assisting supported individuals to make informed decisions. Participants also reported work colleagues and supervisors as primary sources of information when resolving ethical concerns. This suggests that complex ethical decision-making processes are being taken seriously by care providers and supervising staff. The results of this study are well-positioned to be applied to the development of a training program for frontline care providing staff supporting individuals in community care settings.