Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models in the Brazilian Stock Market

In this paper, we test a version of the conditional CAPM with respect to a local market portfolio, proxied by the Brazilian stock index during the 1976-1992 period. We also test a conditional APT model by using the difference between the 30-day rate (Cdb) and the overnight rate as a second factor in addition to the market portfolio in order to capture the large inflation risk present during this period. The conditional CAPM and APT models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and tested on a set of size portfolios created from a total of 25 securities exchanged on the Brazilian markets. The inclusion of this second factor proves to be crucial for the appropriate pricing of the portfolios.

On the cutting stock problem under stochastic demand

This paper addresses the one-dimensional cutting stock problem when demand is a random variable. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic nonlinear program with recourse. The first stage decision variables are the number of objects to be cut according to a cutting pattern. The second stage decision variables are the number of holding or backordering items due to the decisions made in the first stage. The problem`s objective is to minimize the total expected cost incurred in both stages, due to waste and holding or backordering penalties. A Simplex-based method with column generation is proposed for solving a linear relaxation of the resulting optimization problem. The proposed method is evaluated by using two well-known measures of uncertainty effects in stochastic programming: the value of stochastic solution-VSS-and the expected value of perfect information-EVPI. The optimal two-stage solution is shown to be more effective than the alternative wait-and-see and expected value approaches, even under small variations in the parameters of the problem.

Macroeconomic announcements, price discovery, and order flow efects in the stock market: evidence from incomplete data and multiple financial markets

This paper investigates heterogeneity in the market assessment of public macro- economic announcements by exploring (jointly) two main mechanisms through which macroeconomic news might enter stock prices: instantaneous fundamental news im- pacts consistent with the asset pricing view of symmetric information, and permanent order ow e¤ects consistent with a microstructure view of asymmetric information related to heterogeneous interpretation of public news. Theoretical motivation and empirical evidence for the operation of both mechanisms are presented. Signi cant in- stantaneous news impacts are detected for news related to real activity (including em- ployment), investment, in ation, and monetary policy; however, signi cant order ow e¤ects are also observed on employment announcement days. A multi-market analysis suggests that these asymmetric information e¤ects come from uncertainty about long term interest rates due to heterogeneous assessments of future Fed responses to em- ployment shocks.

Gold and the Stock Market: 3 Essays on Gold Investments

This thesis gives an overview of the history of gold per se, of gold as an investment good and offers some institutional details about gold and other precious metal markets. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of gold as a store of value and hedge against negative market movements in turbulent times. I investigate gold’s ability to act as a safe haven during periods of financial stress by employing instrumental variable techniques that allow for time varying conditional covariance. I find broad evidence supporting the view that gold acts as an anchor of stability during market downturns. During periods of high uncertainty and low stock market returns, gold tends to have higher than average excess returns. The effectiveness of gold as a safe haven is enhanced during periods of extreme crises: the largest peaks are observed during the global financial crises of 2007-2009 and, in particular, during the Lehman default (October 2008). A further goal of this thesis is to investigate whether gold provides protection from tail risk. I address the issue of asymmetric precious metal behavior conditioned to stock market performance and provide empirical evidence about the contribution of gold to a portfolio’s systematic skewness and kurtosis. I find that gold has positive coskewness with the market portfolio when the market is skewed to the left. Moreover, gold shows low cokurtosis with the market returns during volatile periods. I therefore show that gold is a desirable investment good to risk averse investors, since it tends to decrease the probability of experiencing extreme bad outcomes, and the magnitude of losses in case such events occur. Gold thus bears very important and under-researched characteristics as an asset class per se, which this thesis contributed to address and unveil.

Shareholder protection and stock market development

The dissertation contains five parts: An introduction, three major chapters, and a short conclusion. The First Chapter starts from a survey and discussion of the studies on corporate law and financial development literature. The commonly used methods in these cross-sectional analyses are biased as legal origins are no longer valid instruments. Hence, the model uncertainty becomes a salient problem. The Bayesian Model Averaging algorithm is applied to test the robustness of empirical results in Djankov et al. (2008). The analysis finds that their constructed legal index is not robustly correlated with most of the various stock market outcome variables. The second Chapter looks into the effects of minority shareholders protection in corporate governance regime on entrepreneurs' ex ante incentives to undertake IPO. Most of the current literature focuses on the beneficial part of minority shareholder protection on valuation, while overlooks its private costs on entrepreneur's control. As a result, the entrepreneur trade-offs the costs of monitoring with the benefits of cheap sources of finance when minority shareholder protection improves. The theoretical predictions are empirically tested using panel data and GMM-sys estimator. The third Chapter investigates the corporate law and corporate governance reform in China. The corporate law in China regards shareholder control as the means to the ends of pursuing the interests of stakeholders, which is inefficient. The Chapter combines the recent development of theories of the firm, i.e., the team production theory and the property rights theory, to solve such problem. The enlightened shareholder value, which emphasizes on the long term valuation of the firm, should be adopted as objectives of listed firms. In addition, a move from the mandatory division of power between shareholder meeting and board meeting to the default regime, is proposed.

Dynamic Effects of Currency Depreciation on Stock Market Returns during the Asian Financial Crisis

The current international integration of financial markets provides a channel for currency depreciation to affect stock prices. Moreover, the recent financial crisis in Asia with its accompanying exchange rate volatility affords a case study to examine that channel. This paper applies a bivariate GARCH-M model of the reduced form of stock market returns to investigate empirically the effects of daily currency depreciation on stock market returns for five newly emerging East Asian stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The evidence shows that the conditional variances of stock market returns and depreciation rates exhibit time-varying characteristics for all countries. Domestic currency depreciation and its uncertainty adversely affects stock market returns across countries. The significant effects of foreign exchange market events on stock market returns suggest that international fund managers who invest in the newly emerging East Asian stock markets must evaluate the value and stability of the domestic currency as a part of their stock market investment decisions.

Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Stock index reaction to large price changes:evidence frommajor Asian stock indexes

We examine the short-term price behavior of ten Asian stock market indexes following large price changes or “shocks”. Under the standard OLS regression, there is stronger support for return continuations particularly following positive and negative price shocks of less than 10% in absolute size. The results under the GJR-GARCH method provide stronger support for market efficiency, especially for large price shocks. For example, for the Hong Kong stock index, negative shocks of less than -5% but more than -10% generate a significant one day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of-0.754% under the OLS method, but an insignificant CAR of 0.022% under the GJR-GARCH. We find no support for the uncertainty information hypothesis. Furthermore, the CARs following the period after the Asian financial crisis adjust more quickly to price shocks.

Is land condition a useful indicator of soil organic carbon stock in Australia?

The grazing lands of northern Australia contain a substantial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock due to the large land area. Manipulating SOC stocks through grazing management has been presented as an option to offset national greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and other industries. However, research into the response of SOC stocks to a range of management activities has variously shown positive, negative or negligible change. This uncertainty in predicting change in SOC stocks represents high project risk for government and industry in relation to SOC sequestration programs. In this paper, we seek to address the uncertainty in SOC stock prediction by assessing relationships between SOC stocks and grazing land condition indicators. We reviewed the literature to identify land condition indicators for analysis and tested relationships between identified land condition indicators and SOC stock using data from a paired-site sampling experiment (10 sites). We subsequently collated SOC stock datasets at two scales (quadrat and paddock) from across northern Australia (329 sites) to compare with the findings of the paired-site sampling experiment with the aim of identifying the land condition indicators that had the strongest relationship with SOC stock. The land condition indicators most closely correlated with SOC stocks across datasets and analysis scales were tree basal area, tree canopy cover, ground cover, pasture biomass and the density of perennial grass tussocks. In combination with soil type, these indicators accounted for up to 42% of the variation in the residuals after climate effects were removed. However, we found that responses often interacted with soil type, adding complexity and increasing the uncertainty associated with predicting SOC stock change at any particular location. We recommend that caution be exercised when considering SOC offset projects in northern Australian grazing lands due to the risk of incorrectly predicting changes in SOC stocks with change in land condition indicators and management activities for a particular paddock or property. Despite the uncertainty for generating SOC sequestration income, undertaking management activities to improve land condition is likely to have desirable complementary benefits such as improving productivity and profitability as well as reducing adverse environmental impact.

Design and management of a supply chain: a joint location-inventory problem under uncertainty (Part A)

In this paper, a joint location-inventory model is proposed that simultaneously optimises strategic supply chain design decisions such as facility location and customer allocation to facilities, and tactical-operational inventory management and production scheduling decisions. All this is analysed in a context of demand uncertainty and supply uncertainty. While demand uncertainty stems from potential fluctuations in customer demands over time, supply-side uncertainty is associated with the risk of “disruption” to which facilities may be subject. The latter is caused by external factors such as natural disasters, strikes, changes of ownership and information technology security incidents. The proposed model is formulated as a non-linear mixed integer programming problem to minimise the expected total cost, which includes four basic cost items: the fixed cost of locating facilities at candidate sites, the cost of transport from facilities to customers, the cost of working inventory, and the cost of safety stock. Next, since the optimisation problem is very complex and the number of evaluable instances is very low, a "matheuristic" solution is presented. This approach has a twofold objective: on the one hand, it considers a larger number of facilities and customers within the network in order to reproduce a supply chain configuration that more closely reflects a real-world context; on the other hand, it serves to generate a starting solution and perform a series of iterations to try to improve it. Thanks to this algorithm, it was possible to obtain a solution characterised by a lower total system cost than that observed for the initial solution. The study concludes with some reflections and the description of possible future insights.

Design and management of a supply chain: a joint location-inventory problem under uncertainty (Part B)

In recent years, global supply chains have increasingly suffered from reliability issues due to various external and difficult to-manage events. The following paper aims to build an integrated approach for the design of a Supply Chain under the risk of disruption and demand fluctuation. The study is divided in two parts: a mathematical optimization model, to identify the optimal design and assignments customer-facility, and a discrete-events simulation of the resulting network. The first one describes a model in which plant location decisions are influenced by variables such as distance to customers, investments needed to open plants and centralization phenomena that help contain the risk of demand variability (Risk Pooling). The entire model has been built with a proactive approach to manage the risk of disruptions assigning to each customer two types of open facilities: one that will serve it under normal conditions and a back-up facility, which comes into operation when the main facility has failed. The study is conducted on a relatively small number of instances due to the computational complexity, a matheuristic approach can be found in part A of the paper to evaluate the problem with a larger set of players. Once the network is built, a discrete events Supply Chain simulation (SCS) has been implemented to analyze the stock flow within the facilities warehouses, the actual impact of disruptions and the role of the back-up facilities which suffer a great stress on their inventory due to a large increase in demand caused by the disruptions. Therefore, simulation follows a reactive approach, in which customers are redistributed among facilities according to the interruptions that may occur in the system and to the assignments deriving from the design model. Lastly, the most important results of the study will be reported, analyzing the role of lead time in a reactive approach for the occurrence of disruptions and comparing the two models in terms of costs.

Merluccius hubbsi (Teleostei: Merlucciidae): stock identification based on reproductive biology in the south-southeast brazilian region

The Argentine hake, Merluccius hubbsi, a demersal-pelagic species found from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to the Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, has become an important target of the Brazilian bottom-trawler fleet since 2001. Earlier studies focusing on the species have suggested that more than one stock might occur off the Brazilian coast, in accordance with environmental features. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, fish were collected from four different areas in the Brazilian waters in which the hake is distributed, during the summers and winters of 1996-2001 and 2004, the females being used to analyze and compare spatial-temporal variations in ovarian maturation. Gonad indexes were also applied for the same purpose. Results indicate a north-south spawning gradient occurring as from summer at around 21°S to winter near 34°S, leading to the identification of two distinct stocks: one located between 21°S and 29°S (Southeastern stock) and the other between 29°S and 34°S (Southern stock), this latter shared with Uruguay and Argentina. Brazilian stocks present clear signs of overexploitation, the situation calling for an urgent solution.

Charged and strange hadron elliptic flow in Cu plus Cu collisions at root s(NN)=62.4 and 200 GeV

We present the results of an elliptic flow, v(2), analysis of Cu + Cu collisions recorded with the solenoidal tracker detector (STAR) at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at root s(NN) = 62.4 and 200 GeV. Elliptic flow as a function of transverse momentum, v(2)(p(T)), is reported for different collision centralities for charged hadrons h(+/-) and strangeness-ontaining hadrons K(S)(0), Lambda, Xi, and phi in the midrapidity region vertical bar eta vertical bar < 1.0. Significant reduction in systematic uncertainty of the measurement due to nonflow effects has been achieved by correlating particles at midrapidity, vertical bar eta vertical bar < 1.0, with those at forward rapidity, 2.5 < vertical bar eta vertical bar < 4.0. We also present azimuthal correlations in p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV to help in estimating nonflow effects. To study the system-size dependence of elliptic flow, we present a detailed comparison with previously published results from Au + Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. We observe that v(2)(p(T)) of strange hadrons has similar scaling properties as were first observed in Au + Au collisions, that is, (i) at low transverse momenta, p(T) < 2 GeV/c, v(2) scales with transverse kinetic energy, m(T) - m, and (ii) at intermediate p(T), 2 < p(T) < 4 GeV/c, it scales with the number of constituent quarks, n(q.) We have found that ideal hydrodynamic calculations fail to reproduce the centrality dependence of v(2)(p(T)) for K(S)(0) and Lambda. Eccentricity scaled v(2) values, v(2)/epsilon, are larger in more central collisions, suggesting stronger collective flow develops in more central collisions. The comparison with Au + Au collisions, which go further in density, shows that v(2)/epsilon depends on the system size, that is, the number of participants N(part). This indicates that the ideal hydrodynamic limit is not reached in Cu + Cu collisions, presumably because the assumption of thermalization is not attained.