The fixation of locally beneficial alleles in a metapopulation.

Extinction, recolonization, and local adaptation are common in natural spatially structured populations. Understanding their effect upon genetic variation is important for systems such as genetically modified organism management or avoidance of drug resistance. Theoretical studies on the effect of extinction and recolonization upon genetic variance started appearing in the 1970s, but the role of local adaptation still has no good theoretical basis. Here we develop a model of a haploid species in a metapopulation in which a locally adapted beneficial allele is introduced. We study the effect of different spatial patterns of local adaptation, and different metapopulation dynamics, upon the fixation probability of the beneficial allele. Controlling for the average selection pressure, we find that a small area of positive selection can significantly increase the global probability of fixation. However, local adaptation becomes less important as extinction rate increases. Deme extinction and recolonization have a spatial smoothing effect that effectively reduces spatial variation in fitness.

Softkalanteroinnin optimointi luettelopaperin viimeistelyssä

Työssä tutkittiin softkalanteroinnin vaikutus heat set web offset-luettelopaperin laatu- ja painatusominaisuuksiin. Tavoitteena oli löytää luettelopaperin laatuvaatimukset täyttävä ajotapa softkalanterille. Työn kirjallisessa osassa käsitellään softkalanteroinnin teoriaa, softkalanteroinnin vaikutusta sanomalehti-paperin laatuun sekä soft- ja konekalanteroinnin eroja. Lisäksi käsitellään painatusta; densiteettiä ja sen vaikutusta paperin läpipainatukseen. Työn kokeellisessa osassa tutkittiin softkalanterin lämpötilan ja viivapaineen vaikutus luettelopaperin laatuun. Paras laatu sileyden, kiillon sekä painojäljen kannalta saavutetaan käyttämällä korkeaa kalanterin lämpötilaa ja viivapainetta. Massaseoksessa tulisi olla niin paljon hioketta kuin paperin lujuusominaisuudet sallivat. Hioke antaa paperille tasaisen painojäljen. Täyteainetta tulisi käyttää, koska se nostaa opasiteettia ja pienentää läpipainatusta sekä helpottaa kalanteroitumista. Helpommin kalanteroituva paperi pienentää paperin huokostilavuutta, jolla on edullinen vaikutus paperin läpipainatukseen. Luettelopaperin kalanteroiminen yhdellä nipillä on mahdollista, mutta ei suotavaa. Tällöin paperista tulee toispuoleista karheuden suhteen.

Estimation or simulation? That is the question

The issue of smoothing in kriging has been addressed either by estimation or simulation. The solution via estimation calls for postprocessing kriging estimates in order to correct the smoothing effect. Stochastic simulation provides equiprobable images presenting no smoothing and reproducing the covariance model. Consequently, these images reproduce both the sample histogram and the sample semivariogram. However, there is still a problem, which is the lack of local accuracy of simulated images. In this paper, a postprocessing algorithm for correcting the smoothing effect of ordinary kriging estimates is compared with sequential Gaussian simulation realizations. Based on samples drawn from exhaustive data sets, the postprocessing algorithm is shown to be superior to any individual simulation realization yet, at the expense of providing one deterministic estimate of the random function.

Estimativas de mortalidade para a região nordeste do Brasil em 2010: uma associação do método demográfico equação geral de balanceamento, com o estimador bayesiano empírico

One of the greatest challenges of demography, nowadays, is to obtain estimates of mortality, in a consistent manner, mainly in small areas. The lack of this information, hinders public health actions and leads to impairment of quality of classification of deaths, generating concern on the part of demographers and epidemiologists in obtaining reliable statistics of mortality in the country. In this context, the objective of this work is to obtain estimates of deaths adjustment factors for correction of adult mortality, by States, meso-regions and age groups in the northeastern region, in 2010. The proposal is based on two lines of observation: a demographic one and a statistical one, considering also two areas of coverage in the States of the Northeast region, the meso-regions, as larger areas and counties, as small areas. The methodological principle is to use the General Equation and Balancing demographic method or General Growth Balance to correct the observed deaths, in larger areas (meso-regions) of the states, since they are less prone to breakage of methodological assumptions. In the sequence, it will be applied the statistical empirical Bayesian estimator method, considering as sum of deaths in the meso-regions, the death value corrected by the demographic method, and as reference of observation of smaller area, the observed deaths in small areas (counties). As results of this combination, a smoothing effect on the degree of coverage of deaths is obtained, due to the association with the empirical Bayesian Estimator, and the possibility of evaluating the degree of coverage of deaths by age groups at counties, meso-regions and states levels, with the advantage of estimete adjustment factors, according to the desired level of aggregation. The results grouped by State, point to a significant improvement of the degree of coverage of deaths, according to the combination of the methods with values above 80%. Alagoas (0.88), Bahia (0.90), Ceará (0.90), Maranhão (0.84), Paraíba (0.88), Pernambuco (0.93), Piauí (0.85), Rio Grande do Norte (0.89) and Sergipe (0.92). Advances in the control of the registry information in the health system, linked to improvements in socioeconomic conditions and urbanization of the counties, in the last decade, provided a better quality of information registry of deaths in small areas

O emprego da geoestatística na determinação do tamanho "ótimo" de amostras aleatórias com vistas à obtenção de estimativas dos volumes dos fustes de espécies florestais em Paragominas, estado do Pará

O objetivo do trabalho foi determinar o tamanho adequado de amostra para estimar o volume de fustes de espécies florestais de uma população de árvores a serem cortadas no sistema de manejo florestal da empresa Cikel Brasil Verde Madeiras - Pará. Utilizaram-se as metodologias da amostragem sistemática e do estimador geoestatístico da krigagem ordinária com simulação sequencial, respectivamente para a escolha das amostras e estimação dos volumes dos fustes das árvores. Os resultados mostraram que os métodos podem ser utilizados no cálculo dos volumes de fustes de árvores. Entretanto, o método da krigagem apresenta um efeito de suavização, tendo como conseqüência uma subestimação dos volumes calculados. Neste caso, um fator de correção foi aplicado para minimizar o efeito da suavização. A simulação sequencial indicativa apresentou resultados mais precisos em relação à krigagem, uma vez que tal método apresentou algumas vantagens, tal como a não exigência de amostras com distribuições normais e ausência de efeito de suavização, característico dos métodos de interpolação.

Modelagem geoestatística das incertezas da distribuição espacial do fósforo disponível no solo, em área de cana-de-açúcar

Phosphorus is one of the limiting nutrients for sugarcane development in Brazilian soils. The spatial variability of this nutrient is great, defined by the properties that control its adsorption and desorption reactions. Spatial estimates to characterize this variability are based on geostatistical interpolation. However, inherent uncertainties in the procedure of these estimates are related to the variability structure of the property under study and the sample configuration of the area. Thus, the assessment of the uncertainty of estimates associated with the spatial distribution of available P (Plabile) is decisive to optimize the use of phosphate fertilizers. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) and ordinary kriging (OK) in the modeling of uncertainty in available P estimates. A sampling grid with 626 points was established in a 200-ha experimental sugarcane field in Tabapuã, São Paulo State. The sGs algorithm generated 200 realizations. The sGs realizations reproduced the statistics and the distribution of the sample data. The G statistic (0.81) indicated good agreement between the values of simulated and observed fractions. The sGs realizations preserved the spatial variability of Plabile without the smoothing effect of the OK map. The accuracy in the reproduction of the variogram of the sample data obtained by the sGs realizations was on average 240 times higher than that obtained by OK. The uncertainty map, obtained by OK, showed less variation in the study area than that obtained by sGs. Thus, the evaluation of uncertainties by sGs was more informative and can be used to define and delimit specific management areas more precisely.

The effect of phase-correlated returns and spatial smoothing on the accuracy of radar refractivity retrievals

Radar refractivity retrievals have the potential to accurately capture near-surface humidity fields from the phase change of ground clutter returns. In practice, phase changes are very noisy and the required smoothing will diminish large radial phase change gradients, leading to severe underestimates of large refractivity changes (ΔN). To mitigate this, the mean refractivity change over the field (ΔNfield) must be subtracted prior to smoothing. However, both observations and simulations indicate that highly correlated returns (e.g., when single targets straddle neighboring gates) result in underestimates of ΔNfield when pulse-pair processing is used. This may contribute to reported differences of up to 30 N units between surface observations and retrievals. This effect can be avoided if ΔNfield is estimated using a linear least squares fit to azimuthally averaged phase changes. Nevertheless, subsequent smoothing of the phase changes will still tend to diminish the all-important spatial perturbations in retrieved refractivity relative to ΔNfield; an iterative estimation approach may be required. The uncertainty in the target location within the range gate leads to additional phase noise proportional to ΔN, pulse length, and radar frequency. The use of short pulse lengths is recommended, not only to reduce this noise but to increase both the maximum detectable refractivity change and the number of suitable targets. Retrievals of refractivity fields must allow for large ΔN relative to an earlier reference field. This should be achievable for short pulses at S band, but phase noise due to target motion may prevent this at C band, while at X band even the retrieval of ΔN over shorter periods may at times be impossible.

Caffeine effect on mortality and oviposition in successive generations of Aedes aegypti

OBJECTIVE: Previous experiments showed that caffeine blocks the development of Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae) in the larval stage, consequently inhibiting the production of adults. This study aimed at obtaining data suggestive of caffeine resistance by these mosquitoes. METHODS: Experiments were carried out in successive generations to assess adult production from eggs laid in previous generation and oviposition rate in every generation using 200 and 500 µg/mL caffeine. Tap water was used as control. Experiments were conducted in the city of São José do Rio Preto, Southeastern Brazil between 2002 and 2005. Statistical tests consisted of exploratory data analysis and smoothing algorithms. RESULTS: Increasing reduction in productivity of adults occurred among generations at both caffeine concentrations but the differences were only significant at 200µg/mL caffeine. As for the oviposition rate, there was a decrease in the mean number of eggs per female over generations at both caffeine concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of caffeine resistance over generations. The study results corroborate caffeine as an alternative as an important Ae. Aegypti control agent to avoid resistance.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on "softer' signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial real estate performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on ‘softer’ signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the IPD Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. More November appraisals change than expected and this suggests that the increased information flows for the December end year appraisals are flowing through into earlier appraisals, especially as client/appraiser draft appraisal meetings for the December appraisals, a regular occurrence in the UK, can occur in November. January illustrates significantly less activity than other months, a seasonal effect after the exertions of the December appraisals.

Heat kernel smoothing via Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions and its application to subcortical structure modeling

We present a new subcortical structure shape modeling framework using heat kernel smoothing constructed with the Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions. The cotan discretization is used to numerically obtain the eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator along the surface of subcortical structures of the brain. The eigenfunctions are then used to construct the heat kernel and used in smoothing out measurements noise along the surface. The proposed framework is applied in investigating the influence of age (38-79 years) and gender on amygdala and hippocampus shape. We detected a significant age effect on hippocampus in accordance with the previous studies. In addition, we also detected a significant gender effect on amygdala. Since we did not find any such differences in the traditional volumetric methods, our results demonstrate the benefit of the current framework over traditional volumetric methods.

Unit roots and the welfare gains of cycle smoothing

li consumption is log-Normal and is decomposed into a linear deterministic trend and a stationary cycle, a surprising result in business-cycle research is that the welfare gains of eliminating uncertainty are relatively small. A possible problem with such calculations is the dichotomy between the trend and the cyclical components of consumption. In this paper, we abandon this dichotomy in two ways. First, we decompose consumption into a deterministic trend, a stochastic trend, and a stationary cyclical component, calculating the welfare gains of cycle smoothing. Calculations are carried forward only after a careful discussion of the limitations of macroeconomic policy. Second, still under the stochastic-trend model, we incorporate a variable slope for consumption depending negatively on the overall volatility in the economy. Results are obtained for a variety of preference parameterizations, parameter values, and different macroeconomic-policy goals. They show that, once the dichotomy in the decomposition in consumption is abandoned, the welfare gains of cycle smoothing may be substantial, especially due to the volatility effect.

Caffeine effect on mortality and oviposition in successive generations of Aedes aegypti

OBJETIVO: Experimentos anteriores mostraram que a cafeína bloqueia o desenvolvimento de Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae) na fase larval, inibindo conseqüentemente a produção de adultos. O objetivo do estudo foi obter dados que pudessem sugerir desenvolvimento de resistência dos mosquitos à cafeína. MÉTODOS: Foi avaliada a produção de adultos em gerações sucessivas, a partir de ovos produzidos na geração anterior e a taxa de oviposição em cada geração, utilizando meios contendo cafeína a 200 e 500 µg/ml e água de torneira proveniente de poço artesiano como controle. Os experimentos foram conduzidos em São José do Rio Preto, entre 2002 e 2005. Nos testes estatísticos foram utilizados a análise exploratória de dados e algoritmos de alisamento. RESULTADOS: Ocorreu redução crescente da produção de adultos, nas duas concentrações, ao longo das gerações, mas apenas no experimento a 200 µg/ml os dados foram estatisticamente significantes. Quanto à oviposição, a análise dos números mostra redução crescente e acentuada na média de ovos por fêmea, no experimento tratado. CONCLUSÕES: Não houve evidência de resistência ao longo das gerações devido ao tratamento com cafeína. Os resultados encontrados podem reforçar a indicação da cafeína como uma alternativa aos principais agentes de controle do Ae. aegypti atualmente usados, contra os quais os mosquitos têm desenvolvido resistência.

Influence of Smoothing on Voxel-Based Mesh Accuracy in Micro-Finite Element

The interest in automatic volume meshing for finite element analysis (FEA) has grown more since the appearance of microfocus CT (μCT), due to its high resolution, which allows for the assessment of mechanical behaviour at a high precision. Nevertheless, the basic meshing approach of generating one hexahedron per voxel produces jagged edges. To prevent this effect, smoothing algorithms have been introduced to enhance the topology of the mesh. However, whether smoothing also improves the accuracy of voxel-based meshes in clinical applications is still under question. There is a trade-off between smoothing and quality of elements in the mesh. Distorted elements may be produced by excessive smoothing and reduce accuracy of the mesh. In the present work, influence of smoothing on the accuracy of voxel-based meshes in micro-FE was assessed. An accurate 3D model of a trabecular structure with known apparent mechanical properties was used as a reference model. Virtual CT scans of this reference model (with resolutions of 16, 32 and 64 μm) were then created and used to build voxel-based meshes of the microarchitecture. Effects of smoothing on the apparent mechanical properties of the voxel-based meshes as compared to the reference model were evaluated. Apparent Young’s moduli of the smooth voxel-based mesh were significantly closer to those of the reference model for the 16 and 32 μm resolutions. Improvements were not significant for the 64 μm, due to loss of trabecular connectivity in the model. This study shows that smoothing offers a real benefit to voxel-based meshes used in micro-FE. It might also broaden voxel-based meshing to other biomechanical domains where it was not used previously due to lack of accuracy. As an example, this work will be used in the framework of the European project ContraCancrum, which aims at providing a patient-specific simulation of tumour development in brain and lungs for oncologists. For this type of clinical application, such a fast, automatic, and accurate generation of the mesh is of great benefit.

Effect of low count sums on quantitative environmental reconstructions: an example using subfossil chironomids

The concentrations of chironomid remains in lake sediments are very variable and, therefore, chironomid stratigraphies often include samples with a low number of counts. Thus, the effect of low count sums on reconstructed temperatures is an important issue when applying chironomid‐temperature inference models. Using an existing data set, we simulated low count sums by randomly picking subsets of head capsules from surface‐sediment samples with a high number of specimens. Subsequently, a chironomid‐temperature inference model was used to assess how the inferred temperatures are affected by low counts. The simulations indicate that the variability of inferred temperatures increases progressively with decreasing count sums. At counts below 50 specimens, a further reduction in count sum can cause a disproportionate increase in the variation of inferred temperatures, whereas at higher count sums the inferences are more stable. Furthermore, low count samples may consistently infer too low or too high temperatures and, therefore, produce a systematic error in a reconstruction. Smoothing reconstructed temperatures downcore is proposed as a possible way to compensate for the high variability due to low count sums. By combining adjacent samples in a stratigraphy, to produce samples of a more reliable size, it is possible to assess if low counts cause a systematic error in inferred temperatures.