Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Outer Trust-Region Method for Constrained Optimization

Given an algorithm A for solving some mathematical problem based on the iterative solution of simpler subproblems, an outer trust-region (OTR) modification of A is the result of adding a trust-region constraint to each subproblem. The trust-region size is adaptively updated according to the behavior of crucial variables. The new subproblems should not be more complex than the original ones, and the convergence properties of the OTR algorithm should be the same as those of Algorithm A. In the present work, the OTR approach is exploited in connection with the ""greediness phenomenon"" of nonlinear programming. Convergence results for an OTR version of an augmented Lagrangian method for nonconvex constrained optimization are proved, and numerical experiments are presented.

The importance of neighbourhood size in self organising systems

In recent times, the analysis of SOM (self-organising map) performance has concentrated on optimising the gain decay, rather than the size, form and decay of the neighbourhood function. We propose that the size, form and decay of region size plays a much more significant role in the learning, and especially in the development, of topographic feature maps. In this paper, a biologically-derived SOM model is presented. This model is able to select a single winning neuron and to form Gaussian outputs about this winner, without the need for a meta-level decision-making structure to artificially select a winner and fit a Gaussian output to that winner. Using this model, some fundamental characteristics of the relationship between neighbourhood size and SOM output states are demonstrated.

Size frequency distribution of beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits in dementia with Lewy bodies

In Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Down's syndrome (DS), the size frequency distribution of the beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits can be described by a log-normal model and may indictae the growth of the deposits. This study determined the size frequency distribution of the Abeta deposits in the temporal lobe in 8 casaes of dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) with associated AD pathology (DLB/AD. The size distributions of Abeta deposits were unimodal and positively skewed; the mean size of deposi and the degree of skew varying with deposit type and brain region. Size distributions of the primitive deposits had lower means and were less skewed compared with the diffuse and classic deposits. In addition, size distributions in the hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus (PHG) had larger means and a greater degree of skew compared with other cortical gyri. All size distributions deviated significantly from a log-normal model. There were more Abeta deposits than expected in the smaller size classes and fewer than expected near the mean and in the larger size classes. The data suggest thatthe pattern of growth of the Abeta deposits in DLB/AD depends both on deposit morphology and brain area. In addition, Abeta deposits in DLB appear to grow to within a more restricted size range than predicted and hence, to have less potential for growth compared with cases of 'pure' AD and DS.

Uncertainty Quantification in Ultrasonic Wave Based Detection of Delamination in Composite Structures

In this paper we consider the problem of guided wave scattering from delamination in laminated composite and further the problem of estimating delamination size and layer-wise location from the guided wave measurement. Damage location and region/size can be estimated from time of flight and wave packet spread, whereas depth information can be obtained from wavenumber modulation in the carrier packet. The key challenge is that these information are highly sensitive to various uncertainties. Variation in reflected and transmitted wave amplitude in a bar due to boundary/interface uncertainty is studied to illustrate such effect. Effect of uncertainty in material parameters on the time of flight are estimated for longitudinal wave propagation. To evaluate the effect of uncertainty in delamination detection, we employ a time domain spectral finite element (tSFEM) scheme where wave propagation is modeled using higher-order interpolation with shape function have spectral convergence properties. A laminated composite beam with layer-wise placement of delamination is considered in the simulation. Scattering due to the presence of delamination is analyzed. For a single delamination, two identical waveforms are created at the two fronts of the delamination, whereas waves in the two sub-laminates create two independent waveforms with different wavelengths. Scattering due to multiple delaminations in composite beam is studied.

Evaluating boundary dependent errors in QM/MM simulations.

Hybrid quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) simulations provide a powerful tool for studying chemical reactions, especially in complex biochemical systems. In most works to date, the quantum region is kept fixed throughout the simulation and is defined in an ad hoc way based on chemical intuition and available computational resources. The simulation errors associated with a given choice of the quantum region are, however, rarely assessed in a systematic manner. Here we study the dependence of two relevant quantities on the QM region size: the force error at the center of the QM region and the free energy of a proton transfer reaction. Taking lysozyme as our model system, we find that in an apolar region the average force error rapidly decreases with increasing QM region size. In contrast, the average force error at the polar active site is considerably higher, exhibits large oscillations and decreases more slowly, and may not fall below acceptable limits even for a quantum region radius of 9.0 A. Although computation of free energies could only be afforded until 6.0 A, results were found to change considerably within these limits. These errors demonstrate that the results of QM/MM calculations are heavily affected by the definition of the QM region (not only its size), and a convergence test is proposed to be a part of setting up QM/MM simulations.

Weekend versus weekday admission and mortality after acute pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Optimal management of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) requires medical expertise, diagnostic testing, and therapies that may not be available consistently throughout the entire week. We sought to assess whether associations exist between weekday or weekend admission and mortality and length of hospital stay for patients hospitalized with PE. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated patients discharged with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania (January 2000 to November 2002). We used random-effect logistic models to study the association between weekend admission and 30-day mortality and used discrete survival models to study the association between weekend admission and time to hospital discharge, adjusting for hospital (region, size, and teaching status) and patient factors (race, insurance, severity of illness, and use of thrombolytic therapy). Among 15 531 patient discharges with PE, 3286 patients (21.2%) had been admitted on a weekend. Patients admitted on weekends had a higher unadjusted 30-day mortality rate (11.1% versus 8.8%) than patients admitted on weekdays, with no difference in length of stay. Patients admitted on weekends had significantly greater adjusted odds of dying (odds ratio 1.17, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.34) than patients admitted on weekdays. The higher mortality among patients hospitalized on weekends was driven by the increased mortality rate among the most severely ill patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with PE who are admitted on weekends have a significantly higher short-term mortality than patients admitted on weekdays. Quality-improvement efforts should aim to ensure a consistent approach to the management of PE 7 days a week.

Human frontal lobes are not relatively large

One of the most pervasive assumptions about human brain evolution is that it involved relative enlargement of the frontal lobes. We show that this assumption is without foundation. Analysis of five independent data sets using correctly scaled measures and phylogenetic methods reveals that the size of human frontal lobes, and of specific frontal regions, is as expected relative to the size of other brain structures. Recent claims for relative enlargement of human frontal white matter volume, and for relative enlargement shared by all great apes, seem to be mistaken. Furthermore, using a recently developed method for detecting shifts in evolutionary rates, we find that the rate of change in relative frontal cortex volume along the phylogenetic branch leading to humans was unremarkable and that other branches showed significantly faster rates of change. Although absolute and proportional frontal region size increased rapidly in humans, this change was tightly correlated with corresponding size increases in other areas andwhole brain size, and with decreases in frontal neuron densities. The search for the neural basis of human cognitive uniqueness should therefore focus less on the frontal lobes in isolation and more on distributed neural networks.

Hierarchical Assembly of CaMoO(4) Nano-Octahedrons and Their Photoluminescence Properties

Hierarchical assemblies of CaMoO4 (CM) nano-octahedrons were obtained by microwave-assisted hydrothemial synthesis at 120 degrees C for different times. These structures were structurally, morphologically and optically characterized by X-ray diffraction, micro-Raman spectroscopy, field-emission gun scanning electron microscopy, ultraviolet-visible absorption spectroscopy and photoluminescence measurements. First-principle calculations have been carried out to understand the structural and electronic order-disorder effects as a function of the particle/region size. Supercells of different dimensions were constructed to simulate the geometric distortions along both they and z planes of the scheelite structure. Based on these experimental results and with the help of detailed structural simulations, we were able to model the nature of the order-disorder in this important class of materials and discuss the consequent implications on its physical properties, in particular, the photoluminescence properties of CM nanocrystals.

Layered dynamic probabilistic networks for spatio-temporal modelling

In applications such as tracking and surveillance in large spatial environments, there is a need for representing dynamic and noisy data and at the same time dealing with them at different levels of detail. In the spatial domain, there has been work dealing with these two issues separately, however, there is no existing common framework for dealing with both of them. In this paper, we propose a new representation framework called the Layered Dynamic Probabilistic Network (LDPN), a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN), capable of handling uncertainty and representing spatial data at various levels of detail. The framework is thus particularly suited to applications in wide-area environments which are characterised by large region size, complex spatial layout and multiple sensors/cameras. For example, a building has three levels: entry/exit to the building, entry/exit between rooms and moving within rooms. To avoid the problem of a relatively large state space associated with a large spatial environment, the LDPN explicitly encodes the hierarchy of connected spatial locations, making it scalable to the size of the environment being modelled. There are three main advantages of the LDPN. First, the reduction in state space makes it suitable for dealing with wide area surveillance involving multiple sensors. Second, it offers a hierarchy of intervals for indexing temporal data. Lastly, the explicit representation of intermediate sub-goals allows for the extension of the framework to easily represent group interactions by allowing coupling between sub-goal layers of different individuals or objects. We describe an adaptation of the likelihood sampling inference scheme for the LDPN, and illustrate its use in a hypothetical surveillance scenario.

An empirical study of neighbourhood decay in Kohonen's self organizing map

In this paper, empirical results are presented which suggest that size and rate of decay of region size plays a much more significant role in the learning, and especially the development, of topographic feature maps. Using these results as a basis, a scheme for decaying region size during SOM training is proposed. The proposed technique provides near optimal training time. This scheme avoids the need for sophisticated learning gain decay schemes, and precludes the need for a priori knowledge of likely training times. This scheme also has some potential uses for continuous learning.

What determines habitat quality for a declining woodland bird in a fragmented environment: the grey-crowned babbler pomatostomus temporalis in South-Eastern Australia?

Understanding what constitutes high quality habitat is crucial for the conservation of species, especially those threatened with extinction. Habitat quality frequently is inferred by comparing the attributes of sites where a species is present with those where it is absent. However, species presence may not always indicate high quality habitat. Demographic parameters are likely to provide a more biologically relevant measure of quality, including a species' ability to successfully reproduce. We examined factors believed to influence territory quality for the grey-crowned babbler (Pomatostomus temporalis), a cooperatively breeding woodland bird that has experienced major range contraction and population decline in south-eastern Australia. Across three broad regions, we identified active territories and determined the presence of fledglings and the size of family groups, as surrogates of territory quality. These measures were modelled in relation to habitat attributes within territories, the extent of surrounding wooded vegetation, isolation from neighbouring groups, and the size of the neighbourhood population. Fledgling presence was strongly positively associated with group size, indicating that helpers enhance breeding success. Surprisingly, no other territory or landscape-scale variables predicted territory quality, as inferred from either breeding success or group size. Relationships between group size and environmental variables may be obscured by longer-term dynamics in group size. Variation in biotic interactions, notably competition from the noisy miner (Manorina melanocephala), also may contribute. Conservation actions that enhance the number and size of family groups will contribute towards reversing declines of this species. Despite associated challenges, demographic studies have potential to identify mechanistic processes that underpin population performance; critical knowledge for effective conservation management.

Assessing the maturity levei of an organization in its adoption of collaboration technologies

Nowadays there are many information technologies that can make a significant difference to support collaborative efforts in the workspace. The role of IT is to support group collaboration by empowering team members with the right capabilities. One way to assess capabilities is through a maturity model. This paper proposes a first version of the Collaboration-Technology Maturity model (CTMM), aiming to serve as a strategic instrument for IT managers to control and manage the adoption of Collaboration Technologies (CITs) among their organizations. Our contribution is both theoretical and practical as we propose a descriptive maturity model. Nevertheless, it is also an application method and assessment instruments. We also completed an empirical evaluation by conducting 89 assessments at Latin American companies of all sizes and industries. This extensive field exercise allowed us to not only evaluate the usefulness of the model and instruments but also investigate CIT adoption patterns in Latin America in an attempt to collect historical data to further evolve CTMM into a comparative model. Responses were used to provide conclusions on CIT adoption in Latin America with respect to three specific backgrounds: the country of origin (region), size (in number of employees) and industry type. The implications of our findings are discussed for practitioners and researchers.

Hierarchical Assembly of CaMoO4 Nano-Octahedrons and Their Photoluminescence Properties

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Prognostic importance of anaemia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Although associated with adverse outcomes in other cardiopulmonary diseases, limited evidence exists on the prognostic value of anaemia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We sought to examine the associations between anaemia and mortality and length of hospital stay in patients with PE. We evaluated 14,276 patients with a primary diagnosis of PE from 186 hospitals in Pennsylvania, USA. We used random-intercept logistic regression to assess the association between anaemia at the time of presentation and 30-day mortality and discrete-time logistic hazard models to assess the association between anaemia and time to hospital discharge, adjusting for patient (age, gender, race, insurance type, clinical and laboratory variables) and hospital (region, size, teaching status) factors. Anaemia was present in 38.7% of patients at admission. Patients with anaemia had a higher 30-day mortality (13.7% vs. 6.3%; p <0.001) and a longer length of stay (geometric mean, 6.9 vs. 6.6 days; p <0.001) compared to patients without anaemia. In multivariable analyses, anaemia remained associated with an increased odds of death (OR 1.82, 95% CI: 1.60-2.06) and a decreased odds of discharge (OR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.82-0.89). Anaemia is very common in patients presenting with PE and is independently associated with an increased short-term mortality and length of stay.