Power Calculations for Preclinical Studies Using a K-Sample Rank Test and the Lehmann Alternative Hypothesis

Power calculations in a small sample comparative study, with a continuous outcome measure, are typically undertaken using the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic. When the sample size is small, this asymptotic result can be a poor approximation. An alternative approach, using a rank based test statistic, is an exact power calculation. When the number of groups is greater than two, the number of calculations required to perform an exact power calculation is prohibitive. To reduce the computational burden, a Monte Carlo resampling procedure is used to approximate the exact power function of a k-sample rank test statistic under the family of Lehmann alternative hypotheses. The motivating example for this approach is the design of animal studies, where the number of animals per group is typically small.

Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change

This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Testing the random walk hypothesis with variance ratio statistics

Mestrado em Finanças

Phylogenetics, Ancestral State Reconstruction, And A New Infrafamilial Classification Of The Pantropical Ochnaceae (medusagynaceae, Ochnaceae S.str., Quiinaceae) Based On Five Dna Regions.

Ochnaceae s.str. (Malpighiales) are a pantropical family of about 500 species and 27 genera of almost exclusively woody plants. Infrafamilial classification and relationships have been controversial partially due to the lack of a robust phylogenetic framework. Including all genera except Indosinia and Perissocarpa and DNA sequence data for five DNA regions (ITS, matK, ndhF, rbcL, trnL-F), we provide for the first time a nearly complete molecular phylogenetic analysis of Ochnaceae s.l. resolving most of the phylogenetic backbone of the family. Based on this, we present a new classification of Ochnaceae s.l., with Medusagynoideae and Quiinoideae included as subfamilies and the former subfamilies Ochnoideae and Sauvagesioideae recognized at the rank of tribe. Our data support a monophyletic Ochneae, but Sauvagesieae in the traditional circumscription is paraphyletic because Testulea emerges as sister to the rest of Ochnoideae, and the next clade shows Luxemburgia+Philacra as sister group to the remaining Ochnoideae. To avoid paraphyly, we classify Luxemburgieae and Testuleeae as new tribes. The African genus Lophira, which has switched between subfamilies (here tribes) in past classifications, emerges as sister to all other Ochneae. Thus, endosperm-free seeds and ovules with partly to completely united integuments (resulting in an apparently single integument) are characters that unite all members of that tribe. The relationships within its largest clade, Ochnineae (former Ochneae), are poorly resolved, but former Ochninae (Brackenridgea, Ochna) are polyphyletic. Within Sauvagesieae, the genus Sauvagesia in its broad circumscription is polyphyletic as Sauvagesia serrata is sister to a clade of Adenarake, Sauvagesia spp., and three other genera. Within Quiinoideae, in contrast to former phylogenetic hypotheses, Lacunaria and Touroulia form a clade that is sister to Quiina. Bayesian ancestral state reconstructions showed that zygomorphic flowers with adaptations to buzz-pollination (poricidal anthers), a syncarpous gynoecium (a near-apocarpous gynoecium evolved independently in Quiinoideae and Ochninae), numerous ovules, septicidal capsules, and winged seeds with endosperm are the ancestral condition in Ochnoideae. Although in some lineages poricidal anthers were lost secondarily, the evolution of poricidal superstructures secured the maintenance of buzz-pollination in some of these genera, indicating a strong selective pressure on keeping that specialized pollination system.

Correlation Between Testosterone And Psa Kinetics In Metastatic Prostate Cancer Patients Treated With Diverse Chemical Castrations.

To assess total testosterone and prostatic-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics among diverse chemical castrations, advanced-stage prostate cancer patients were randomized into three groups of 20: Group 1, Leuprolide 3.75 mg; Group 2, Leuprolide 7.5 mg; and Group 3, Goserelin 3.6 mg. All groups were treated with monthly application of the respective drugs. The patients' levels of serum total testosterone and PSA were evaluated at two time periods: before the treatment and 3 months after the treatment. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was utilized to verify the hypothesis of linear correlation between total testosterone and PSA levels. At the beginning the patients' age, stage, grade, PSA, and total testosterone were similar within the three groups, with median age 72, 70, and 70 years in Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Three months after the treatment, patients who received Leuprolide 7.5 mg presented significantly lower median total testosterone levels compared with Goserelin 3.6 mg and Leuprolide 3.75 mg (9.5 ng/dL vs. 20.0 ng/dL vs. 30.0 ng/dL, respectively; p = .0072), while those who received Goserelin 3.6 mg presented significantly lower PSA levels compared with Leuprolide 7.5 mg and Leuprolide 3.75 mg (0.67 vs. 1.86 vs. 2.57, respectively; p = .0067). There was no linear correlation between total testosterone and PSA levels. Overall, regarding castration levels of total testosterone, 28.77% of patients did not obtain levels ≤50 ng/dL and 47.80% did not obtain levels ≤20 ng/dL. There was no correlation between total testosterone and PSA kinetics and no equivalence among different pharmacological castrations.

Hipotaxe e Gramaticalização: uma Análise das Construções de Tempo e de Condição

This paper studies complex sentences with temporal hypotatic clauses and with conditional hypotatic clauses in order to investigate the degree of grammaticalization shown by these two kinds of utterances. Our hypothesis is that the more the hypotatic clause is integrated to the nuclear clause, the greater is the degree of grammaticalization. Such degree of integration was measured according to three groups of factors, and the results show that, regarding two of the variables evaluated, the conditional clauses are the most integrated to their nucleus, but, in another rank of evaluation, the temporal clauses are the most integrated ones. Considering that this study is based on a functionalist view, the results may be interpreted according to the principle that there is a competition of motivations in the use of language, so that each utterance reflects the balance of such forces.

A new genus and two new species of Stevardiinae (Characiformes: Characidae) with a hypothesis on their relationships based on morphological and histological data

Lepidocharax, new genus, and Lepidocharax diamantina and L. burnsi new species from eastern Brazil are described herein. Lepidocharax is considered a monophyletic genus of the Stevardiinae and can be distinguished from the other members of this subfamily except Planaltina, Pseudocorynopoma, and Xenurobrycon by having the dorsal-fin origin vertically aligned with the anal-fin origin, vs. dorsal fin origin anterior or posterior to anal-fin origin. Additionally the new genus can be distinguished from those three genera by not having the scales extending over the ventral caudal-fin lobe modified to form the dorsal border of the pheromone pouch organ or to represent a pouch scale in sexually mature males. In this paper, we describe these two recently discovered species and the ultrastructure of their spermatozoa.

Beyond the Fragmentation Threshold Hypothesis: Regime Shifts in Biodiversity Across Fragmented Landscapes

Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

TESTING STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS ON RANDOM TREES AND APPLICATIONS TO THE PROTEIN CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM

Efficient automatic protein classification is of central importance in genomic annotation. As an independent way to check the reliability of the classification, we propose a statistical approach to test if two sets of protein domain sequences coming from two families of the Pfam database are significantly different. We model protein sequences as realizations of Variable Length Markov Chains (VLMC) and we use the context trees as a signature of each protein family. Our approach is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type goodness-of-fit test proposed by Balding et at. [Limit theorems for sequences of random trees (2008), DOI: 10.1007/s11749-008-0092-z]. The test statistic is a supremum over the space of trees of a function of the two samples; its computation grows, in principle, exponentially fast with the maximal number of nodes of the potential trees. We show how to transform this problem into a max-flow over a related graph which can be solved using a Ford-Fulkerson algorithm in polynomial time on that number. We apply the test to 10 randomly chosen protein domain families from the seed of Pfam-A database (high quality, manually curated families). The test shows that the distributions of context trees coming from different families are significantly different. We emphasize that this is a novel mathematical approach to validate the automatic clustering of sequences in any context. We also study the performance of the test via simulations on Galton-Watson related processes.

LATENT RANK CHANGE DETECTION FOR ANALYSIS OF SPLICE-JUNCTION MICROARRAYS WITH NONLINEAR EFFECTS

Alternative splicing of gene transcripts greatly expands the functional capacity of the genome, and certain splice isoforms may indicate specific disease states such as cancer. Splice junction microarrays interrogate thousands of splice junctions, but data analysis is difficult and error prone because of the increased complexity compared to differential gene expression analysis. We present Rank Change Detection (RCD) as a method to identify differential splicing events based upon a straightforward probabilistic model comparing the over-or underrepresentation of two or more competing isoforms. RCD has advantages over commonly used methods because it is robust to false positive errors due to nonlinear trends in microarray measurements. Further, RCD does not depend on prior knowledge of splice isoforms, yet it takes advantage of the inherent structure of mutually exclusive junctions, and it is conceptually generalizable to other types of splicing arrays or RNA-Seq. RCD specifically identifies the biologically important cases when a splice junction becomes more or less prevalent compared to other mutually exclusive junctions. The example data is from different cell lines of glioblastoma tumors assayed with Agilent microarrays.

COMPETITION AMONG EUCALYPTUS TREES DEPENDS ON GENETIC VARIATION AND RESOURCE SUPPLY

Genetic variation and environmental heterogeneity fundamentally shape the interactions between plants of the same species. According to the resource partitioning hypothesis, competition between neighbors intensifies as their similarity increases. Such competition may change in response to increasing supplies of limiting resources. We tested the resource partitioning hypothesis in stands of genetically identical (clone-origin) and genetically diverse (seed-origin) Eucalyptus trees with different water and nutrient supplies, using individual-based tree growth models. We found that genetic variation greatly reduced competitive interactions between neighboring trees, supporting the resource partitioning hypothesis. The importance of genetic variation for Eucalyptus growth patterns depended strongly on local stand structure and focal tree size. This suggests that spatial and temporal variation in the strength of species interactions leads to reversals in the growth rank of seed-origin and clone-origin trees. This study is one of the first to experimentally test the resource partitioning hypothesis for intergenotypic vs. intragenotypic interactions in trees. We provide evidence that variation at the level of genes, and not just species, is functionally important for driving individual and community-level processes in forested ecosystems.

Acquisition of the English article system in SLA and the Missing Surface Inflection Hypothesis

This paper examines the article system in interlanguage grammar focusing on Japanese learners of English, whose native language lacks articles. It will be demonstrated that for the acquisition of the English article system, count/mass distinctions and definiteness are the crucial factors. Although Japanese does not employ the article system to encode these aspects, it will be argued that they are nevertheless syntactically encoded through its classifier system. Hence, the problem for these learners must be to map these features onto the appropriate surface forms as the Missing Surface Inflection Hypothesis predicts (Prévost & White 2000). This suggestion will further be supported empirically by a fill-in-the article task. It will be concluded that these Japanese learners understand the English article system fairly well, possibly due to their native language, yet have problems with realizing the relevant features (i.e. count/mass distinctions and definiteness) in the target language.

Regulation of photosynthetic pigments in micro-algae by multiple environmental factors: a dynamic balance hypothesis

Environmental effects on the concentration of photosynthetic pigments in micro-algae can be explained by dynamics of photosystem synthesis and deactivation. A model that couples photosystem losses to the relative cellular rates of energy harvesting (light absorption) and assimilation predicts optimal concentrations of light-harvesting pigments and balanced energy flow under environmental conditions that affect light availability and metabolic rates. Effects of light intensity, nutrient supply and temperature on growth rate and pigment levels were similar to general patterns observed across diverse micro-algal taxa. Results imply that dynamic behaviour associated with photophysical stress, and independent of gene regulation, might constitute one mechanism for photo-acclimation of photosynthesis.