Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results showthat reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm–2 (40Wm–2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964–1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

Balloon-borne disposable radiometer for cloud detection

A low cost, disposable instrument for measuring solar radiation during meteorological balloon flights through cloud layers is described. Using a photodiode detector and low thermal drift signal conditioning circuitry, the device showed less than 1% drift for temperatures varied from +20 °C to −35 °C. The angular response to radiation, which declined less rapidly than the cosine of the angle between the incident radiation and normal incidence, is used for cloud detection exploiting the motion of the platform. Oriented upwards, the natural motion imposed by the balloon allows cloud and clear air to be distinguished by the absence of radiation variability within cloud, where the diffuse radiation present is isotropic. The optical method employed by the solar radiation instrument has also been demonstrated to provide higher resolution measurements of cloud boundaries than relative humidity measurements alone.

Interobserver variability of radiation therapists aligning to fiducial markers for prostate radiation therapy

As the use of fiducial markers (FMs) for the localisation of the prostate during external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) has become part of routine practice, radiation therapists (RTs) have become increasingly responsible for online image interpretation. The aim of this investigation was to quantify the limits of agreement (LoA) between RTs when localising to FMs with orthogonal kilovoltage (kV) imaging. Methods Six patients receiving prostate EBRT utilising FMs were included in this study. Treatment localisation was performed using kV imaging prior to each fraction. Online stereoscopic assessment of FMs, performed by the treating RTs, was compared with the offline assessment by three RTs. Observer agreement was determined by pairwise Bland-Altman analysis. Results Stereoscopic analysis of 225 image pairs was performed online at the time of treatment, and offline by three RT observers. Eighteen pairwise Bland-Altman analyses were completed to assess the level of agreement between observers. Localisation by RTs was found to be within clinically acceptable 95% LoAs. Conclusions Small differences between RTs, in both the online and offline setting, were found to be within clinically acceptable limits. RTs were able to make consistent and reliable judgements when matching FMs on planar kV imaging.

RACIAL/ETHNIC VARIABILITY IN THE EFFECT OF RADIATION ON SECOND PRIMARY THYROID CANCER IN CHILDREN: ANALYSIS USING SURVEILLANCE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND END RESULTS DATA

Increases in pediatric thyroid cancer incidence could be partly due to previous clinical intervention. This retrospective cohort study used 1973-2012 data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program to assess the association between previous radiation therapy exposure in development of second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) among 0-19-year-old children. Statistical analysis included the calculation of summary statistics and univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Relative to no previous radiation therapy exposure, cases exposed to radiation had 2.46 times the odds of developing SPTC (95% CI: 1.39-4.34). After adjustment for sex and age at diagnosis, Hispanic children who received radiation therapy for a first primary malignancy had 3.51 times the odds of developing SPTC compared to Hispanic children who had not received radiation therapy, [AOR=3.51, 99% CI: 0.69-17.70, p=0.04]. These findings support the development of age-specific guidelines for the use of radiation based interventions among children with and without cancer.

Annual Average Value of Solar Radiation and its Variability in Portugal

Solar resource assessment is essential for the different phases of solar energy projects, such as preliminary design engineering, financing including due diligence and, later, insurance phases. An important aspect is the long term resource estimation. This kind of estimation can only be obtained through the statistical analysis of long-term data series of solar radiation measurements, preferably ground measurements. This paper is a first step in this direction, with an initial statistical analysis performed over the radiation data from a national measurement network, consisting of eighty-nine meteorological stations. These preliminary results are presented in figures that represent the annual average values of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and its Variability in the Portuguese continental territory. These results show that the South of Portugal is the most suitable area for the implementation of medium to large scale solar plants.

Assessment of cone beam CT registration for prostate radiation therapy : fiducial marker and soft tissue methods

Introduction This investigation aimed to assess the consistency and accuracy of radiation therapists (RTs) performing cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) alignment to fiducial markers (FMs) (CBCTFM) and the soft tissue prostate (CBCTST). Methods Six patients receiving prostate radiation therapy underwent daily CBCTs. Manual alignment of CBCTFM and CBCTST was performed by three RTs. Inter-observer agreement was assessed using a modified Bland–Altman analysis for each alignment method. Clinically acceptable 95% limits of agreement with the mean (LoAmean) were defined as ±2.0 mm for CBCTFM and ±3.0 mm for CBCTST. Differences between CBCTST alignment and the observer-averaged CBCTFM (AvCBCTFM) alignment were analysed. Clinically acceptable 95% LoA were defined as ±3.0 mm for the comparison of CBCTST and AvCBCTFM. Results CBCTFM and CBCTST alignments were performed for 185 images. The CBCTFM 95% LoAmean were within ±2.0 mm in all planes. CBCTST 95% LoAmean were within ±3.0 mm in all planes. Comparison of CBCTST with AvCBCTFM resulted in 95% LoA of −4.9 to 2.6, −1.6 to 2.5 and −4.7 to 1.9 mm in the superior–inferior, left–right and anterior–posterior planes, respectively. Conclusions Significant differences were found between soft tissue alignment and the predicted FM position. FMs are useful in reducing inter-observer variability compared with soft tissue alignment. Consideration needs to be given to margin design when using soft tissue matching due to increased inter-observer variability. This study highlights some of the complexities of soft tissue guidance for prostate radiation therapy.

Investigation of fiducial marker and soft-tissue image guidance techniques in prostate radiation therapy

This thesis examines and compares imaging methods used during the radiotherapy treatment of prostate cancer. The studies found that radiation therapists were able to localise and target the prostate consistently with planar imaging techniques and that the use of small gold markers in the prostate reduced the variation in prostate localisation when using volumetric imaging. It was concluded that larger safety margins are required when using volumetric imaging without gold markers.

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine preventable infectious diseases and immunisation service delivery system

Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.

Relative contributions of light interception and radiation use efficiency to the reduction of maize productivity under cold temperatures

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a chill-susceptible crop cultivated in northern latitude environments. The detrimental effects of cold on growth and photosynthetic activity have long been established. However, a general overview of how important these processes are with respect to the reduction of productivity reported in the field is still lacking. In this study, a model-assisted approach was used to dissect variations in productivity under suboptimal temperatures and quantify the relative contributions of light interception (PARc) and radiation use efficiency (RUE) from emergence to flowering. A combination of architectural and light transfer models was used to calculate light interception in three field experiments with two cold-tolerant lines and at two sowing dates. Model assessment confirmed that the approach was suitable to infer light interception. Biomass production was strongly affected by early sowings. RUE was identified as the main cause of biomass reduction during cold events. Furthermore, PARc explained most of the variability observed at flowering, its relative contributions being more or less important according to the climate experienced. Cold temperatures resulted in lower PARc, mainly because final leaf length and width were significantly reduced for all leaves emerging after the first cold occurrence. These results confirm that virtual plants can be useful as fine phenotyping tools. A scheme of action of cold on leaf expansion, light interception and radiation use efficiency is discussed with a view towards helping breeders define relevant selection criteria. This paper originates from a presentation at the 5th International Workshop on Functional–Structural Plant Models, Napier, New Zealand, November 2007.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against similar to 0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); similar to 60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and similar to 40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our similar to 100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Trends and Variability of AVHRR-Derived NPP in India

In this paper, we estimate the trends and variability in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) over India for the period 1982-2006. We find an increasing trend of 3.9% per decade (r = 0.78, R-2 = 0.61) during the analysis period. A multivariate linear regression of NPP with temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, soil water and surface solar radiation (r = 0.80, R-2 = 0.65) indicates that the increasing trend is partly driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and the consequent CO2 fertilization of the ecosystems. However, human interventions may have also played a key role in the NPP increase: non-forest NPP growth is largely driven by increases in irrigated area and fertilizer use, while forest NPP is influenced by plantation and forest conservation programs. A similar multivariate regression of interannual NPP anomalies with temperature, precipitation, soil water, solar radiation and CO2 anomalies suggests that the interannual variability in NPP is primarily driven by precipitation and temperature variability. Mean seasonal NPP is largest during post-monsoon and lowest during the pre-monsoon period, thereby indicating the importance of soil moisture for vegetation productivity.

Sources of black carbon aerosols in South Asia and surrounding regions during the Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, Gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB)

This study examines differences in the surface black carbon (BC) aerosol loading between the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS) and identifies dominant sources of BC in South Asia and surrounding regions during March-May 2006 (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, Gases and Radiation Budget, ICARB) period. A total of 13 BC tracers are introduced in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry to address these objectives. The model reproduced the temporal and spatial variability of BC distribution observed over the AS and the BoB during the ICARB ship cruise and captured spatial variability at the inland sites. In general, the model underestimates the observed BC mass concentrations. However, the model-observation discrepancy in this study is smaller compared to previous studies. Model results show that ICARB measurements were fairly well representative of the AS and the BoB during the pre-monsoon season. Elevated BC mass concentrations in the BoB are due to 5 times stronger influence of anthropogenic emissions on the BoB compared to the AS. Biomass burning in Burma also affects the BoB much more strongly than the AS. Results show that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, respectively, accounted for 60 and 37% of the average +/- standard deviation (representing spatial and temporal variability) BC mass concentration (1341 +/- 2353 ng m(-3)) in South Asia. BC emissions from residential (61 %) and industrial (23 %) sectors are the major anthropogenic sources, except in the Himalayas where vehicular emissions dominate. We find that regional-scale transport of anthropogenic emissions contributes up to 25% of BC mass concentrations in western and eastern India, suggesting that surface BC mass concentrations cannot be linked directly to the local emissions in different regions of South Asia.