Strategic argumentation: A game theoretical investigation

Argumentation is modelled as a game where the payoffs are measured in terms of the probability that the claimed conclusion is, or is not, defeasibly provable, given a history of arguments that have actually been exchanged, and given the probability of the factual premises. The probability of a conclusion is calculated using a standard variant of Defeasible Logic, in combination with standard probability calculus. It is a new element of the present approach that the exchange of arguments is analysed with game theoretical tools, yielding a prescriptive and to some extent even predictive account of the actual course of play. A brief comparison with existing argument-based dialogue approaches confirms that such a prescriptive account of the actual argumentation has been almost lacking in the approaches proposed so far.

Online games for the teaching of mathematics

In this article we present a didactic experience developed by the GIE (Group of Educational Innovation) “Pensamiento Matemático” of the Polytechnics University of Madrid (UPM), in order to bring secondary students and university students closer to Mathematics. It deals with the development of a virtual board game called Mate-trivial. The mechanics of the game is to win points by going around the board which consists of four types of squares identified by colours: “Statistics and Probability”, “Calculus and Analysis”, “Algebra and Geometry” and “Arithmetic and Number Theory ”. When landing on a square, a question of its category is set out: a correct answer wins 200 points, if wrong it loses 100 points, and not answering causes no effect on the points, but all the same, two minutes out of the 20 minutes that each game lasts are lost. For the game to be over it is necessary, before those 20 minutes run out, to reach the central square and succeed in the final task: four chained questions, one of each type, which must be all answered correctly. It is possible to choose between two levels to play: Level 1, for pre-university students and Level 2 for university students. A prototype of the game is available at the website “Aula de Pensamiento Matemático” developed by the GIE: http://innovacioneducativa.upm.es/pensamientomatematico/. This activity lies within a set of didactic actions which the GIE is developing in the framework of the project “Collaborative Strategies between University and Secondary School Education for the teaching and learning of Mathematics: An Application to solve problems while playing”, a transversal project financed by the UPM.

A Preface Paradox for Intention

In this paper I argue that there is a preface paradox for intention. The preface paradox for intention shows that intentions do not obey an agglomeration norm, requiring one to intend conjunctions of whatever else one intends. But what norms do intentions obey? I will argue that intentions come in degrees. These partial intentions are governed by the norms of the probability calculus. First, I will give a dispositional theory of partial intention, on which degrees of intention are the degrees to which one possesses the dispositions characteristic of full intention. I will use this dispositional theory to defend probabilism about intention. Next, I will offer a more general argument for probabilism about intention. To do so, I will generalize recent decision theoretic arguments for probabilism from the case of belief to the case of intention.

The philosophical significance of Cox's theorem

Cox's theorem states that, under certain assumptions, any measure of belief is isomorphic to a probability measure. This theorem, although intended as a justification of the subjectivist interpretation of probability theory, is sometimes presented as an argument for more controversial theses. Of particular interest is the thesis that the only coherent means of representing uncertainty is via the probability calculus. In this paper I examine the logical assumptions of Cox's theorem and I show how these impinge on the philosophical conclusions thought to be supported by the theorem. I show that the more controversial thesis is not supported by Cox's theorem. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seeking Relationships in Big Data: A Bayesian Perspective

The real purpose of collecting big data is to identify causality in the hope that this will facilitate credible predictivity . But the search for causality can trap one into infinite regress, and thus one takes refuge in seeking associations between variables in data sets. Regrettably, the mere knowledge of associations does not enable predictivity. Associations need to be embedded within the framework of probability calculus to make coherent predictions. This is so because associations are a feature of probability models, and hence they do not exist outside the framework of a model. Measures of association, like correlation, regression, and mutual information merely refute a preconceived model. Estimated measures of associations do not lead to a probability model; a model is the product of pure thought. This paper discusses these and other fundamentals that are germane to seeking associations in particular, and machine learning in general. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.1.2, H.2.4., G.3.

Probabilistic Evaluation of Three-Dimensional Reconstructions from X-Ray Images Spanning a Limited Angle

An important part of computed tomography is the calculation of a three-dimensional reconstruction of an object from series of X-ray images. Unfortunately, some applications do not provide sufficient X-ray images. Then, the reconstructed objects no longer truly represent the original. Inside of the volumes, the accuracy seems to vary unpredictably. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to evaluate any reconstruction, voxel by voxel. The evaluation is based on a sophisticated probabilistic handling of the measured X-rays, as well as the inclusion of a priori knowledge about the materials that the object receiving the X-ray examination consists of. For each voxel, the proposed method outputs a numerical value that represents the probability of existence of a predefined material at the position of the voxel while doing X-ray. Such a probabilistic quality measure was lacking so far. In our experiment, false reconstructed areas get detected by their low probability. In exact reconstructed areas, a high probability predominates. Receiver Operating Characteristics not only confirm the reliability of our quality measure but also demonstrate that existing methods are less suitable for evaluating a reconstruction.

Fractional derivatives: probability interpretation and frequency response of rational approximations

The theory of fractional calculus (FC) is a useful mathematical tool in many applied sciences. Nevertheless, only in the last decades researchers were motivated for the adoption of the FC concepts. There are several reasons for this state of affairs, namely the co-existence of different definitions and interpretations, and the necessity of approximation methods for the real time calculation of fractional derivatives (FDs). In a first part, this paper introduces a probabilistic interpretation of the fractional derivative based on the Grünwald-Letnikov definition. In a second part, the calculation of fractional derivatives through Padé fraction approximations is analyzed. It is observed that the probabilistic interpretation and the frequency response of fraction approximations of FDs reveal a clear correlation between both concepts.

Privacy Calculus on Social Networking Sites: Explorative Evidence from Germany and USA

Worldwide social networks, like Facebook, face fierce competition from local platforms when expanding globally. To remain attractive social network providers need to encourage user self-disclosure. Yet, little research exists on how cultural differences impact selfdisclosure on these platforms. Addressing this gap, this study explores the differences in perceptions of disclosure-relevant determinants between German and US users. Survey of Facebook members indicates that German users expect more damage and attribute higher probability to privacy-related violations. On the other hand, even though American users show higher level of privacy concern, they extract more benefits from their social networking activities, have more trust in the service provider and legal assurances as well as perceive more control. These factors may explain a higher level of self-disclosure indicated by American users. Our results provide relevant insights for the social network providers who can adjust their expansion strategy with regard to cultural differences.

Calculus of the uncertainty in acoustic field measurements: comparative study between the uncertainty propagation method and the distribution propagation method

The new Spanish Regulation in Building Acoustic establishes values and limits for the different acoustic magnitudes whose fulfillment can be verify by means field measurements. In this sense, an essential aspect of a field measurement is to give the measured magnitude and the uncertainty associated to such a magnitude. In the calculus of the uncertainty it is very usual to follow the uncertainty propagation method as described in the Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurements (GUM). Other option is the numerical calculus based on the distribution propagation method by means of Monte Carlo simulation. In fact, at this stage, it is possible to find several publications developing this last method by using different software programs. In the present work, we used Excel for the Monte Carlo simulation for the calculus of the uncertainty associated to the different magnitudes derived from the field measurements following ISO 140-4, 140-5 and 140-7. We compare the results with the ones obtained by the uncertainty propagation method. Although both methods give similar values, some small differences have been observed. Some arguments to explain such differences are the asymmetry of the probability distributions associated to the entry magnitudes,the overestimation of the uncertainty following the GUM

Fractional Calculus of P-transforms

MSC 2010: 44A20, 33C60, 44A10, 26A33, 33C20, 85A99

One Step Forward: Contrasting The Effects Of Toe Clipping And Pit Tagging On Frog Survival And Recapture Probability.

Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark-recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark-recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog.

Probability currents and entropy production in nonequilibrium lattice systems

The structure of probability currents is studied for the dynamical network after consecutive contraction on two-state, nonequilibrium lattice systems. This procedure allows us to investigate the transition rates between configurations on small clusters and highlights some relevant effects of lattice symmetries on the elementary transitions that are responsible for entropy production. A method is suggested to estimate the entropy production for different levels of approximations (cluster sizes) as demonstrated in the two-dimensional contact process with mutation.

Expertise and the perception of kinematic and situational probability information

Two experiments were conducted on the nature of expert perception in the sport of squash. In the first experiment, ten expert and fifteen novice players attempted to predict the direction and force of squash strokes from either a film display (occluded at variable time periods before and after the opposing player had struck the ball) or a matched point-light display (containing only the basic kinematic features of the opponent's movement pattern). Experts outperformed the novices under both display conditions, and the same basic time windows that characterised expert and novice pick-up of information in the film task also persisted in the point-light task. This suggests that the experts' perceptual advantage is directly related to their superior pick-up of essential kinematic information. In the second experiment, the vision of six expert and six less skilled players was occluded by remotely triggered liquid-crystal spectacles at quasi-random intervals during simulated match play. Players were required to complete their current stroke even when the display was occluded and their prediction performance was assessed with respect to whether they moved to the correct half of the court to match the direction and depth of the opponent's stroke. Consistent with experiment 1, experts were found to be superior in their advance pick-up of both directional and depth information when the display was occluded during the opponent's hitting action. However, experts also remained better than chance, and clearly superior to less skilled players, in their prediction performance under conditions where occlusion occurred before any significant pre-contact preparatory movement by the opposing player was visible. This additional source of expert superiority is attributable to their superior attunement to the information contained in the situational probabilities and sequential dependences within their opponent's pattern of play.

A Fibred Tableau Calculus for Modal Logics of Agents

In previous works we showed how to combine propositional multimodal logics using Gabbay's \emph{fibring} methodology. In this paper we extend the above mentioned works by providing a tableau-based proof technique for the combined/fibred logics. To achieve this end we first make a comparison between two types of tableau proof systems, (\emph{graph} $\&$ \emph{path}), with the help of a scenario (The Friend's Puzzle). Having done that we show how to uniformly construct a tableau calculus for the combined logic using Governatori's labelled tableau system \KEM. We conclude with a discussion on \KEM's features.