Predicting the behaviour of structures under impact loads using geometrically distorted scaled models

When a scaled structure (model or replica) is used to predict the response of a full-size compound (prototype), the model geometric dimensions should relate to the corresponding prototype dimensions by a single scaling factor. However, owing to manufacturing technical restrictions, this condition cannot be accomplished for some of the dimensions in real structures. Accordingly, the distorted geometry will not comply with the overall geometric scaling factor, infringing the Pi theorem requirements for complete dynamic similarity. In the present study, a method which takes geometrical distortions into account is introduced, leading to a model similar to the prototype. As a means to infer the performance of this method, three analytical problems of structures subjected to dynamic loads are analysed. It is shown that the replica developed applying this technique is able to accurately predict the full-size structure behaviour even when the studied models have some of their dimensions severely distorted. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting answering behaviour in online question answering communities

The value of Question Answering (Q&A) communities is dependent on members of the community finding the questions they are most willing and able to answer. This can be difficult in communities with a high volume of questions. Much previous has work attempted to address this problem by recommending questions similar to those already answered. However, this approach disregards the question selection behaviour of the answers and how it is affected by factors such as question recency and reputation. In this paper, we identify the parameters that correlate with such a behaviour by analysing the users' answering patterns in a Q&A community. We then generate a model to predict which question a user is most likely to answer next. We train Learning to Rank (LTR) models to predict question selections using various user, question and thread feature sets. We show that answering behaviour can be predicted with a high level of success, and highlight the particular features that inuence users' question selections.

The differential role of alcohol expectancies, drinking refusal self-efficacy and coping resources in predicting alcohol consumption in community and clinical samples

This study explored the relationship between coping, alcohol expectancies and drinking refusal self-efficacy in predicting drinking behaviour in both community and clinical samples. These variables were found to have differential effects in their association with frequency and volume of alcohol consumption across the two samples. Generally, drinking refusal self-efficacy was a more salient factor in relation to frequency and volume of community drinking, while coping and expectancies were more strongly associated with frequency of drinking sessions by problem drinkers. The interaction between expectancies and drinking refusal self-efficacy was related to volume of consumption in both groups, while coping and expectancies interacted in their association with frequency in the clinical group. The findings are discussed with regard to the different patterns of cognitive variables governing the decision to drink and the amount consumed in each drinking session, which may differentiate community and problem drinkers.

Modelling of cold-formed purlin-sheeting systems .1. Full model

Purlin-sheeting systems used for roofs and walls commonly take the form of cold-formed channel or zed section purlins, screw-connected to corrugated sheeting. These purlin-sheeting systems have been the subject of numerous theoretical and experimental investigations over the past three decades, but the complexity of the systems has led to great difficulty in developing a sound and general model. This paper presents a non-linear elasto-plastic finite element model, capable of predicting the behaviour of purlin-sheeting systems without the need for either experimental input or over simplifying assumptions. The model incorporates both the sheeting and the purlin, and is able to account for cross-sectional distortion of the purlin, the flexural and membrane restraining effects of the sheeting, and failure of the purlin by local buckling or yielding. The validity of the model is shown by its good correlation with experimental results. A simplified version of this model, which is more suitable for use in a design environment, is presented in a companion paper. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Quantitative refinement of reaction-based biomodels

In the field of molecular biology, scientists adopted for decades a reductionist perspective in their inquiries, being predominantly concerned with the intricate mechanistic details of subcellular regulatory systems. However, integrative thinking was still applied at a smaller scale in molecular biology to understand the underlying processes of cellular behaviour for at least half a century. It was not until the genomic revolution at the end of the previous century that we required model building to account for systemic properties of cellular activity. Our system-level understanding of cellular function is to this day hindered by drastic limitations in our capability of predicting cellular behaviour to reflect system dynamics and system structures. To this end, systems biology aims for a system-level understanding of functional intraand inter-cellular activity. Modern biology brings about a high volume of data, whose comprehension we cannot even aim for in the absence of computational support. Computational modelling, hence, bridges modern biology to computer science, enabling a number of assets, which prove to be invaluable in the analysis of complex biological systems, such as: a rigorous characterization of the system structure, simulation techniques, perturbations analysis, etc. Computational biomodels augmented in size considerably in the past years, major contributions being made towards the simulation and analysis of large-scale models, starting with signalling pathways and culminating with whole-cell models, tissue-level models, organ models and full-scale patient models. The simulation and analysis of models of such complexity very often requires, in fact, the integration of various sub-models, entwined at different levels of resolution and whose organization spans over several levels of hierarchy. This thesis revolves around the concept of quantitative model refinement in relation to the process of model building in computational systems biology. The thesis proposes a sound computational framework for the stepwise augmentation of a biomodel. One starts with an abstract, high-level representation of a biological phenomenon, which is materialised into an initial model that is validated against a set of existing data. Consequently, the model is refined to include more details regarding its species and/or reactions. The framework is employed in the development of two models, one for the heat shock response in eukaryotes and the second for the ErbB signalling pathway. The thesis spans over several formalisms used in computational systems biology, inherently quantitative: reaction-network models, rule-based models and Petri net models, as well as a recent formalism intrinsically qualitative: reaction systems. The choice of modelling formalism is, however, determined by the nature of the question the modeler aims to answer. Quantitative model refinement turns out to be not only essential in the model development cycle, but also beneficial for the compilation of large-scale models, whose development requires the integration of several sub-models across various levels of resolution and underlying formal representations.

Propriétés des monocouches auto-assemblées du liquide ionique 1-(12-mercaptododécyl)-3-méthylimidazolium

Les propriétés d'une nouvelle classe de chimie de surface basée sur les monocouches auto-assemblées de liquides ioniques (ILs-SAMs), ont été étudiées pour une utilisation dans la construction de biocapteurs basés sur la résonance des plasmons de surface (SPR). Les biocapteurs sont utiles pour détecter des biomolécules spécifiques dans une matrice biologique complexe. Cependant, le signal analytique de la biomolécule spécifique peut être masqué par l’adsorption non spécifique de la matrice biologique, produisant une réponse faussement positive. Par ailleurs, l'activité des récepteurs moléculaires est souvent réduite par des techniques d'immobilisation chimique. Ainsi, il est essentiel de déterminer une surface idéale pour la préparation de biocapteurs. Les liquides ioniques sont bien connus pour favoriser l'activité des récepteurs moléculaires et cette étude enquête si cette propriété importante peut se traduire sur des capteurs SPR. Différents liquides ioniques ont été utilisés pour former des monocouches auto-assemblées sur une surface d'or. Les ILs-SAMs sont tous basés sur les sels de mercapto-(chaîne alkyle)nCH2-méthylimidazolium avec différentes chaînes alkyles (n = 3, 6, 9, 12) et différents contre-anions (Br-, BF4-, PF6-, NTf2-). Des études cinétiques de l'adsorption non spécifique de sérum bovin ont été réalisées sur des capteurs SPR avec un instrument construit sur mesure, basé sur l'interrogation des longueurs d’ondes SPR sur un prisme d’inversion d’image (dove). Par la suite, l’anti-IgG de chèvre sélective à l’IgG humain a été utilisé en tant que modèle pour la confection de biocapteurs sur les ILs-SAMs. En solution, il est possible d’effectuer des échanges du contre-anion des liquides ioniques pour un contre-anion de plus en plus hydrophobe. Cependant, l’échange inverse, soit vers des anions de plus en plus hydrophile, s’avère impossible. Toutefois, il a été observé par les travaux présentés dans ce mémoire, que les liquides ioniques immobilisés sur une surface d'or ont la capacité d'échanger leurs contre-anions réversiblement, procurant une méthode simple de moduler leurs propriétés physico-chimiques. Ce phénomène a été observé par la mesure d’angles de contacts et par les techniques spectroscopiques de l’infrarouge moyen (mid-IR), des photoélectrons de rayon-X (XPS) et par la diffusion Raman exaltée par les surfaces (SERS) ii ainsi que par la spectrométrie de masse (MS). La connaissance des propriétés d’échange d’anion est importante pour prédire le comportement de ces surfaces de liquides ioniques dans les tampons et fluides biologiques.

Predictability Of Share Prices In India: A Study Of The Applicability Of Technical Analysis

In spite of the far longed practices of technical analysis by many participants in Indian stock market, none have arrived at the exact position of technical analysis as a tool for foretelling share prices. There is no evidence supporting that one has established its definite role in predicting the behaviour of share price and also to see the extent of validity (how far reliable) of technical tools in Indian stock market. The problem is the vacuum in the arena of securities market analysis where an unrecognised tool is practised, i.e., whether to hold on to technical analysis or to drop it. Again, as already stated in this chapter, its validity need not continue forever. It may become futile as happened in developed markets. Continuous practice of a tool, which is valid only during discontinuous times is also an error. The efficacy of different market phenomena in terms of their ability to foretell the extent and direction of the price movements and reliability thereof remain as not yet proved in. This requires further study in this area so that this controversy may be settled. A solution to the problem requires enquiring and establishing the applicability of technical analysis, if any, there is in the Indian stock market. The study has the following two broad objectives for the purpose of confirming the applicability, if any, of technical analysis in the Indian stock market. The first objective is to ascertain the current validity of ‘traditional holding with respect to patterns’ and the second objective is to ascertain the ‘consistent superiority’, if any, of technical indicators over non-signal strategies in return generation. The study analyses the five patterns, which are widely known and commonly found in publications. They are: (1) Symmetrical Triangles, (2) Rising Wedges, (3) Falling Wedges, (4) Head and Shoulders Top and (5) Head and Shoulders Bottom.

Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Investigation of flux in flat-plate modules for membrane distillation

A theoretical model for predicting the behaviour of membrane distillation by incorporating mass and heat transfer equations has been used to find permeate fluxes, and has been validated experimentally. The model accurately predicts mass and heat transfer. The main work studied the effect of module design using a flat-plate module in laminar flow conditions. Areas of investigation included the use of channels across the membrane surface, decreasing the available membrane surface area, and widening the inlet and outlet channels. The work showed that widening the channels increased the flux. Increased flux was also obtained by the use of channels on the permeate side, though not on the feed side.

Estudo do comportamento de fundações superficiais assentes em solos tratados

Este trabalho é parte integrante de uma linha de pesquisa destinada ao estudo de viabilidade técnica de melhoramento artificial de camadas de solo. Objetiva-se com este trabalho contribuir para a viabilização de uso de solos melhorados para suporte de fundações superficiais. O estudo baseou-se em resultados experimentais de provas de carga em placas circulares de 0,30m e 0,60m de diâmetro sobre camadas de solo melhorado com cimento (teor de 5%) de 0,15m, 0,30111 e 0,60m de espessura. Os diâmetros das placas (D) e as espessuras das camadas de solo melhorado com cimento (H) foram fixados de forma a obter-se três valores distintos da relação H/D, correspondendo a 0,5, 1 e 2. Os resultados, representados adimensionalmente através de relações entre a tensão normalizada e o recalque relativo, demonstram a influência da espessura da camada de solo melhorado no comportamento de fbndações superficiais submetidas a carregamento vertical. Uma correlação de natureza semiempirica é desenvolvida de forma a permitir a previsão da magnitude de recalques e tensões de ruptura de sapatas a partir de resultados de ensaios de placa. Foram também avaliados a aplicabiidade de modelos analíticos para fundações superficiais assentes em perfis de solos não homegêneos com características coesivo-fnccionais. Neste sentido, apresenta-se urna comparação quantitativa e qualitativa entre os diversos métodos de previsão da capacidade de suporte e recalques, bem como uma validação das proposições através de comparações entre resultados calculados e medidos experimentalmente em campo. Os principais resultados obtidos na pesquisa são: [a] melhora de desempenho das fundações quando apoiadas em solos tratados, [b] dificuldade de previsão das cargas de ruptura e níveis de recalques em fundações apoiadas em solos estratifcados através de métodos analíticos, refletindo a complexidade deste problema de interação solo-estrutura e [c] desenvolvimento de uma metodologia semi-empírica para estimativa do comportamento de fùndações superíiciais com base em resultados de ensaios de placa.

Sistemi liquido cristallini complessi: simulazioni al calcolatore e studi ESR

The aim of this PhD thesis was to study at a microscopic level different liquid crystal (LC) systems, in order to determine their physical properties, resorting to two distinct methodologies, one involving computer simulations, and the other spectroscopic techniques, in particular electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy. By means of the computer simulation approach we tried to demonstrate this tool effectiveness for calculating anisotropic static properties of a LC material, as well as for predicting its behaviour and features. This required the development and adoption of suitable molecular models based on a convenient intermolecular potentials reflecting the essential molecular features of the investigated system. In particular, concerning the simulation approach, we have set up models for discotic liquid crystal dimers and we have studied, by means of Monte Carlo simulations, their phase behaviour and self­-assembling properties, with respect to the simple monomer case. Each discotic dimer is described by two oblate Gay­Berne ellipsoids connected by a flexible spacer, modelled by a harmonic "spring" of three different lengths. In particular we investigated the effects of dimerization on the transition temperatures, as well as on the characteristics of molecular aggregation displayed and the relative orientational order. Moving to the experimental results, among the many experimental techniques that are typically employed to evaluate LC system distinctive features, ESR has proved to be a powerful tool in microscopic scale investigation of the properties, structure, order and dynamics of these materials. We have taken advantage of the high sensitivity of the ESR spin probe technique to investigate increasingly complex LC systems ranging from devices constituted by a polymer matrix in which LC molecules are confined in shape of nano- droplets, as well as biaxial liquid crystalline elastomers, and dimers whose monomeric units or lateral groups are constituted by rod-like mesogens (11BCB). Reflection-mode holographic-polymer dispersed liquid crystals (H-PDLCs) are devices in which LCs are confined into nanosized (50­-300 nm) droplets, arranged in layers which alternate with polymer layers, forming a diffraction grating. We have determined the configuration of the LC local director and we have derived a model of the nanodroplet organization inside the layers. Resorting also to additional information on the nanodroplet size and shape distribution provided by SEM images of the H-PDLC cross-section, the observed director configuration has been modeled as a bidimensional distribution of elongated nanodroplets whose long axis is, on the average, parallel to the layers and whose internal director configuration is a uniaxial quasi- monodomain aligned along the nanodroplet long axis. The results suggest that the molecular organization is dictated mainly by the confinement, explaining, at least in part, the need for switching voltages significantly higher and the observed faster turn-off times in H-PDLCs compared to standard PDLC devices. Liquid crystal elastomers consist in cross-linked polymers, in which mesogens represent the monomers constituting the main chain or the laterally attached side groups. They bring together three important aspects: orientational order in amorphous soft materials, responsive molecular shape and quenched topological constraints. In biaxial nematic liquid crystalline elastomers (BLCEs), two orthogonal directions, rather than the one of normal uniaxial nematic, can be controlled, greatly enhancing their potential value for applications as novel actuators. Two versions of a side-chain BLCEs were characterized: side­-on and end­-on. Many tests have been carried out on both types of LCE, the main features detected being the lack of a significant dynamical behaviour, together with a strong permanent alignment along the principal director, and the confirmation of the transition temperatures already determined by DSC measurements. The end­-on sample demonstrates a less hindered rotation of the side group mesogenic units and a greater freedom of alignment to the magnetic field, as already shown by previous NMR studies. Biaxial nematic ESR static spectra were also obtained on the basis of Molecular Dynamics generated biaxial configurations, to be compared to the experimentally determined ones, as a mean to establish a possible relation between biaxiality and the spectral features. This provides a concrete example of the advantages of combining the computer simulation and spectroscopic approaches. Finally, the dimer α,ω-bis(4'-cyanobiphenyl-4-yl)undecane (11BCB), synthesized in the "quest" for the biaxial nematic phase has been analysed. Its importance lies in the dimer significance as building blocks in the development of new materials to be employed in innovative technological applications, such as faster switching displays, resorting to the easier aligning ability of the secondary director in biaxial phases. A preliminary series of tests were performed revealing the population of mesogenic molecules as divided into two groups: one of elongated straightened conformers sharing a common director, and one of bent molecules, which display no order, being equally distributed in the three dimensions. Employing this model, the calculated values show a consistent trend, confirming at the same time the transition temperatures indicated by the DSC measurements, together with rotational diffusion tensor values that follow closely those of the constituting monomer 5CB.

Applying qualitative reasoning to finance

Qualitative reasoning has traditionally been applied in the domain of physical systems, where there are well established and understood laws governing the behaviour of each `component' in the system. Such application has shown that it is possible to produce models which can be used for explaining and predicting the behaviour of physical phenomena and also trouble-shooting. The principles underlying the theory ensure that the models are robust and exhibit consistent behaviour under all conditions. This research examines the validity of applying the theory in the financial domain where such laws may not exist or if they do, may not be universally applicable. In particular, it investigates how far these principles and techniques may be applied in the construction of financial analysis models. Because of the inherent differences in the nature of these two domains, it is argued that a different qualitative value system ought to be employed. The dissertation enlarges on the constraints this places on model descriptions and the effect it may have on the power and usefulness of the resulting models. It also describes the implementation of a system that investigates the implications of applying this theory by way of testing it on situations drawn from both text-books and published financial information.

Mechanical properties of sheet metal under forming conditions

In the bulge test, a sheet metal specimen is clamped over a circular hole in a die and formed into a bulge by the hydraulic pressure on one side of the specirnen. As the unsupported part of the specimen is deformed in this way, its area is increased, in other words, the material is generally stretched and its thickness generally decreased. The stresses causing this stretching action are the membrane stresses in the shell generated by the hydraulic pressure, in the same way as the rubber in a toy balloon is stretched by the membrane stresses caused by the air inside it. The bulge test is a widely used sheet metal test, to determine the "formability" of sheet materials. Research on this forming process (2)-(15)* has hitherto been almost exclusively confined to predicting the behaviour of the bulged specimen through the constitutive equations (stresses and strains in relation to displacements and shapes) and empirical work hardening characteristics of the material as determined in the tension test. In the present study the approach is reversed; the stresses and strains in the specimen are measured and determined from the geometry of the deformed shell. Thus, the bulge test can be used for determining the stress-strain relationship in the material under actual conditions in sheet metal forming processes. When sheet materials are formed by fluid pressure, the work-piece assumes an approximately spherical shape, The exact nature and magnitude of the deviation from the perfect sphere can be defined and measured by an index called prolateness. The distribution of prolateness throughout the workpiece at any particular stage of the forming process is of fundamental significance, because it determines the variation of the stress ratio on which the mode of deformation depends. It is found. that, before the process becomes unstable in sheet metal, the workpiece is exactly spherical only at the pole and at an annular ring. Between the pole and this annular ring the workpiece is more pointed than a sphere, and outside this ring, it is flatter than a sphere. In the forming of sheet materials, the stresses and hence the incremental strains, are closely related to the curvatures of the workpiece. This relationship between geometry and state of stress can be formulated quantitatively through prolateness. The determination of the magnitudes of prolateness, however, requires special techniques. The success of the experimental work is due to the technique of measuring the profile inclination of the meridional section very accurately. A travelling microscope, workshop protractor and surface plate are used for measurements of circumferential and meridional tangential strains. The curvatures can be calculated from geometry. If, however, the shape of the workpiece is expressed in terms of the current radial (r) and axial ( L) coordinates, it is very difficult to calculate the curvatures within an adequate degree of accuracy, owing to the double differentiation involved. In this project, a first differentiation is, in effect, by-passed by measuring the profile inclination directly and the second differentiation is performed in a round-about way, as explained in later chapters. The variations of the stresses in the workpiece thus observed have not, to the knowledge of the author, been reported experimentally. The static strength of shells to withstand fluid pressure and their buckling strength under concentrated loads, both depend on the distribution of the thickness. Thickness distribution can be controlled to a limited extent by changing the work hardening characteristics of the work material and by imposing constraints. A technique is provided in this thesis for determining accurately the stress distribution, on which the strains associated with thinning depend. Whether a problem of controlled thickness distribution is tackled by theory, or by experiments, or by both combined, the analysis in this thesis supplies the theoretical framework and some useful experimental techniques for the research applied to particular problems. The improvement of formability by allowing draw-in can also be analysed with the same theoretical and experimental techniques. Results on stress-strain relationships are usually represented by single stress-strain curves plotted either between one stress and one strain (as in the tension or compression tests) or between the effective stress and effective strain, as in tests on tubular specimens under combined tension, torsion and internal pressure. In this study, the triaxial stresses and strains are plotted simultaneously in triangular coordinates. Thus, both stress and strain are represented by vectors and the relationship between them by the relationship between two vector functions. From the results so obtained, conclusions are drawn on both the behaviour and the properties of the material in the bulge test. The stress ratios are generally equal to the strain-rate ratios (stress vectors collinear with incremental strain vectors) and the work-hardening characteristics, which apply only to the particular strain paths are deduced. Plastic instability of the material is generally considered to have been reached when the oil pressure has attained its maximum value so that further deformation occurs under a constant or lower pressure. It is found that the instability regime of deformation has already occurred long before the maximum pressure is attained. Thus, a new concept of instability is proposed, and for this criterion, instability can occur for any type of pressure growth curves.

The application of computerised modelling techniques in manufacturing system design

The absence of a definitive approach to the design of manufacturing systems signifies the importance of a control mechanism to ensure the timely application of relevant design techniques. To provide effective control, design development needs to be continually assessed in relation to the required system performance, which can only be achieved analytically through computer simulation. The technique providing the only method of accurately replicating the highly complex and dynamic interrelationships inherent within manufacturing facilities and realistically predicting system behaviour. Owing to the unique capabilities of computer simulation, its application should support and encourage a thorough investigation of all alternative designs. Allowing attention to focus specifically on critical design areas and enabling continuous assessment of system evolution. To achieve this system analysis needs to efficient, in terms of data requirements and both speed and accuracy of evaluation. To provide an effective control mechanism a hierarchical or multi-level modelling procedure has therefore been developed, specifying the appropriate degree of evaluation support necessary at each phase of design. An underlying assumption of the proposal being that evaluation is quick, easy and allows models to expand in line with design developments. However, current approaches to computer simulation are totally inappropriate to support the hierarchical evaluation. Implementation of computer simulation through traditional approaches is typically characterized by a requirement for very specialist expertise, a lengthy model development phase, and a correspondingly high expenditure. Resulting in very little and rather inappropriate use of the technique. Simulation, when used, is generally only applied to check or verify a final design proposal. Rarely is the full potential of computer simulation utilized to aid, support or complement the manufacturing system design procedure. To implement the proposed modelling procedure therefore the concept of a generic simulator was adopted, as such systems require no specialist expertise, instead facilitating quick and easy model creation, execution and modification, through simple data inputs. Previously generic simulators have tended to be too restricted, lacking the necessary flexibility to be generally applicable to manufacturing systems. Development of the ATOMS manufacturing simulator, however, has proven that such systems can be relevant to a wide range of applications, besides verifying the benefits of multi-level modelling.