Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Avaliação da contaminação em metais pesados no pescado: análise da situação do pescado comercializado em Portugal e dos alertas emitidos pelo sistema RASFF (Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed)

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Tecnologia e Segurança Alimentar

Developing new approaches for detecting and preventing Aedes aegypti population outbreaks: basis for surveillance, alert and control system

A new approach to dengue vector surveillance based on permanent egg-collection using a modified ovitrap and Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis(Bti) was evaluated in different urban landscapes in Recife, Northeast Brazil. From April 2004 to April 2005, 13 egg-collection cycles of four weeks were carried out. Geo-referenced ovitraps containing grass infusion, Bti and three paddles were placed at fixed sampling stations distributed over five selected sites. Continuous egg-collections yielded more than four million eggs laid into 464 sentinel-ovitraps over one year. The overall positive ovitrap index was 98.5% (over 5,616 trap observations). The egg density index ranged from 100 to 2,500 eggs per trap-cycle, indicating a wide spread and high density of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) breeding populations in all sites. Fluctuations in population density over time were observed, particularly a marked increase from January on, or later, according to site. Massive egg-collection carried out at one of the sites prevented such a population outbreak. At intra-site level, egg counts made it possible to identify spots where the vector population is consistently concentrated over the time, pinpointing areas that should be considered high priority for control activities. The results indicate that these could be promising strategies for detecting and preventing Ae. aegypti population outbreaks.

Predicting the mating system from phenotypic correlations between life-history and sperm quality traits in the Alpine whitefish Coregonus zugensis

The mating behavior and reproductive strategies of Alpine whitefish like Coregonus zugensis (Nusslin) are poorly understood, probably because they spawn in deep water where direct observations are difficult. In this study, we interpret life-history and sperm quality traits of fish that we caught from their spawning place. We found that males invest heavily into gonadal tissue (up to 5.6% of their body weight), which is, in comparison to other fish, consistent with external fertilization, distinct pairing and moderate to high communal spawning, or no pairing and low to moderate communal spawning. Sperm competition theory and recent experimental studies on other salmonids predict that males optimize ejaculate characteristics in relation to the costs of sperm and the level of competition they have to expect: dominant males are predicted to invest less into ejaculate quality and to have slower spermatozoa than subdominant males. We found that spermatozoa of older males are slower than those of younger males. Moreover, older males have larger breeding tubercles, a secondary sexual trait that has, in some previous studies, been found to be linked to good condition and to good genetic quality. Our results suggest that C. zugensis has age-linked reproductive strategies, that multimale spawning is common, i.e., that sperm competition plays a significant role, and that older males are on average dominant over younger males at the spawning place.

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.