基于路网的不确定性轨迹预测

移动对象的轨迹预测研究已成为当前移动对象研究中关注的热点,移动对象的轨迹预测技术具有高度的研究价值及广阔的应用前景.目前移动对象的轨迹预测方法主要是针对历史轨迹确定的欧氏空间轨迹预测,但有相当一部分的应用要求预测历史轨迹存在不确定性的移动对象在受限路网中的轨迹.为了解决这一问题,首先提出了不确定性轨迹的生成方法及其表示形式,然后提出了一种基于路网的不确定性轨迹频繁模式挖掘算法,最后给出了利用索引快速查找轨迹模式并进行预测的方法.实验结果表明该方法具有较高的预测准确率、较好的查询效率以及较低的存储空间.

The Alcohol Helplessness Scale and its prediction of depression among problem drinkers

Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained.

Convergence-guaranteed time-varying RRT path planning for profiling floats in 4-Dimensional flow

This paper presents an extension to the Rapidly-exploring Random Tree (RRT) algorithm applied to autonomous, drifting underwater vehicles. The proposed algorithm is able to plan paths that guarantee convergence in the presence of time-varying ocean dynamics. The method utilizes 4-Dimensional, ocean model prediction data as an evolving basis for expanding the tree from the start location to the goal. The performance of the proposed method is validated through Monte-Carlo simulations. Results illustrate the importance of the temporal variance in path execution, and demonstrate the convergence guarantee of the proposed methods.

Towards the Use of Radar Winds in Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide the basis for weather forecasting by simulating the evolution of the atmospheric state. A good forecast requires that the initial state of the atmosphere is known accurately, and that the NWP model is a realistic representation of the atmosphere. Data assimilation methods are used to produce initial conditions for NWP models. The NWP model background field, typically a short-range forecast, is updated with observations in a statistically optimal way. The objective in this thesis has been to develope methods in order to allow data assimilation of Doppler radar radial wind observations. The work has been carried out in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) 3-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Observation modelling is a key element in exploiting indirect observations of the model variables. In the radar radial wind observation modelling, the vertical model wind profile is interpolated to the observation location, and the projection of the model wind vector on the radar pulse path is calculated. The vertical broadening of the radar pulse volume, and the bending of the radar pulse path due to atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Radar radial wind observations are modelled within observation errors which consist of instrumental, modelling, and representativeness errors. Systematic and random modelling errors can be minimized by accurate observation modelling. The impact of the random part of the instrumental and representativeness errors can be decreased by calculating spatial averages from the raw observations. Model experiments indicate that the spatial averaging clearly improves the fit of the radial wind observations to the model in terms of observation minus model background (OmB) standard deviation. Monitoring the quality of the observations is an important aspect, especially when a new observation type is introduced into a data assimilation system. Calculating the bias for radial wind observations in a conventional way can result in zero even in case there are systematic differences in the wind speed and/or direction. A bias estimation method designed for this observation type is introduced in the thesis. Doppler radar radial wind observation modelling, together with the bias estimation method, enables the exploitation of the radial wind observations also for NWP model validation. The one-month model experiments performed with the HIRLAM model versions differing only in a surface stress parameterization detail indicate that the use of radar wind observations in NWP model validation is very beneficial.

A simple diesel engine air-path model to predict the cylinder charge during transients: Strategies for reducing transient emissions spikes

Simple air-path models for modern (VGT/EGR equipped) diesel engines are in common use, and have been reported in the literature. This paper addresses some of the shortcomings of control-oriented models to allow better prediction of the cylinder charge properties. A fast response CO2 analyzer is used to validate the model by comparing the recorded and predicted CO2 concentrations in both the intake port and exhaust manifold of one of the cylinders. Data showing the recorded NOx emissions and exhaust gas opacity during a step change in engine load illustrate the spikes in both NOx and smoke seen during transient conditions. The predicted cylinder charge properties from the model are examined and compared with the measured NOx and opacity. Together, the emissions data and charge properties paint a consistent picture of the phenomena occurring during the transient. Alternative strategies for the fueling and cylinder charge during these load transients are investigated and discussed. Experimental results are presented showing that spikes in both NOx and smoke can be avoided at the expense of some loss in torque response. Even if the torque response must be maintained, it is demonstrated that it is still possible to eliminate spikes in NOx emissions for the transient situation being examined. Copyright © 2006 SAE International.

A coupled hydro-mechanical analysis for prediction of hydraulic fracture propagation in saturated porous media using EFG mesh-less method

The details of the Element Free Galerkin (EFG) method are presented with the method being applied to a study on hydraulic fracturing initiation and propagation process in a saturated porous medium using coupled hydro-mechanical numerical modelling. In this EFG method, interpolation (approximation) is based on nodes without using elements and hence an arbitrary discrete fracture path can be modelled.The numerical approach is based upon solving two governing partial differential equations of equilibrium and continuity of pore water simultaneously. Displacement increment and pore water pressure increment are discretized using the same EFG shape functions. An incremental constrained Galerkin weak form is used to create the discrete system of equations and a fully implicit scheme is used for discretization in the time domain. Implementation of essential boundary conditions is based on the penalty method. In order to model discrete fractures, the so-called diffraction method is used.Examples are presented and the results are compared to some closed-form solutions and FEM approximations in order to demonstrate the validity of the developed model and its capabilities. The model is able to take the anisotropy and inhomogeneity of the material into account. The applicability of the model is examined by simulating hydraulic fracture initiation and propagation process from a borehole by injection of fluid. The maximum tensile strength criterion and Mohr-Coulomb shear criterion are used for modelling tensile and shear fracture, respectively. The model successfully simulates the leak-off of fluid from the fracture into the surrounding material. The results indicate the importance of pore fluid pressure in the initiation and propagation pattern of fracture in saturated soils. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Integration of relational and hierarchical network information for protein function prediction

BACKGROUND:In the current climate of high-throughput computational biology, the inference of a protein's function from related measurements, such as protein-protein interaction relations, has become a canonical task. Most existing technologies pursue this task as a classification problem, on a term-by-term basis, for each term in a database, such as the Gene Ontology (GO) database, a popular rigorous vocabulary for biological functions. However, ontology structures are essentially hierarchies, with certain top to bottom annotation rules which protein function predictions should in principle follow. Currently, the most common approach to imposing these hierarchical constraints on network-based classifiers is through the use of transitive closure to predictions.RESULTS:We propose a probabilistic framework to integrate information in relational data, in the form of a protein-protein interaction network, and a hierarchically structured database of terms, in the form of the GO database, for the purpose of protein function prediction. At the heart of our framework is a factorization of local neighborhood information in the protein-protein interaction network across successive ancestral terms in the GO hierarchy. We introduce a classifier within this framework, with computationally efficient implementation, that produces GO-term predictions that naturally obey a hierarchical 'true-path' consistency from root to leaves, without the need for further post-processing.CONCLUSION:A cross-validation study, using data from the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, shows our method offers substantial improvements over both standard 'guilt-by-association' (i.e., Nearest-Neighbor) and more refined Markov random field methods, whether in their original form or when post-processed to artificially impose 'true-path' consistency. Further analysis of the results indicates that these improvements are associated with increased predictive capabilities (i.e., increased positive predictive value), and that this increase is consistent uniformly with GO-term depth. Additional in silico validation on a collection of new annotations recently added to GO confirms the advantages suggested by the cross-validation study. Taken as a whole, our results show that a hierarchical approach to network-based protein function prediction, that exploits the ontological structure of protein annotation databases in a principled manner, can offer substantial advantages over the successive application of 'flat' network-based methods.

Behavior-Based branch prediction by dynamically clustering branch instructions

Conditional branches frequently exhibit similar behavior (bias, time-varying behavior,...), a property that can be used to improve branch prediction accuracy. Branch clustering constructs groups or clusters of branches with similar behavior and applies different branch prediction techniques to each branch cluster. We revisit the topic of branch clustering with the aim of generalizing branch clustering. We investigate several methods to measure cluster information, with the most effective the storage of information in the branch target buffer. Also, we investigate alternative methods of using the branch cluster identification in the branch predictor. By these improvements we arrive at a branch clustering technique that obtains higher accuracy than previous approaches presented in the literature for the gshare predictor. Furthermore, we evaluate our branch clustering technique in a wide range of predictors to show the general applicability of the method. Branch clustering improves the accuracy of the local history (PAg) predictor, the path-based perceptron and the PPM-like predictor, one of the 2004 CBP finalists.

Strength prediction of single- and double-lap joints by standard and extended finite element modelling

The structural integrity of multi-component structures is usually determined by the strength and durability of their unions. Adhesive bonding is often chosen over welding, riveting and bolting, due to the reduction of stress concentrations, reduced weight penalty and easy manufacturing, amongst other issues. In the past decades, the Finite Element Method (FEM) has been used for the simulation and strength prediction of bonded structures, by strength of materials or fracture mechanics-based criteria. Cohesive-zone models (CZMs) have already proved to be an effective tool in modelling damage growth, surpassing a few limitations of the aforementioned techniques. Despite this fact, they still suffer from the restriction of damage growth only at predefined growth paths. The eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) is a recent improvement of the FEM, developed to allow the growth of discontinuities within bulk solids along an arbitrary path, by enriching degrees of freedom with special displacement functions, thus overcoming the main restriction of CZMs. These two techniques were tested to simulate adhesively bonded single- and double-lap joints. The comparative evaluation of the two methods showed their capabilities and/or limitations for this specific purpose.

Verification and FPGA circuits of a block-2 fast path-based predictor

This paper formally derives a new path-based neural branch prediction algorithm (FPP) into blocks of size two for a lower hardware solution while maintaining similar input-output characteristic to the algorithm. The blocked solution, here referred to as B2P algorithm, is obtained using graph theory and retiming methods. Verification approaches were exercised to show that prediction performances obtained from the FPP and B2P algorithms differ within one mis-prediction per thousand instructions using a known framework for branch prediction evaluation. For a chosen FPGA device, circuits generated from the B2P algorithm showed average area savings of over 25% against circuits for the FPP algorithm with similar time performances thus making the proposed blocked predictor superior from a practical viewpoint.

FPGA organization for the fast path-based neural branch predictor

This paper develops cycle-level FPGA circuits of an organization for a fast path-based neural branch predictor Our results suggest that practical sizes of prediction tables are limited to around 32 KB to 64 KB in current FPGA technology due mainly to FPGA area of logic resources to maintain the tables. However the predictor scales well in terms of prediction speed. Table sizes alone should not be used as the only metric for hardware budget when comparing neural-based predictor to predictors of totally different organizations. This paper also gives early evidence to shift the attention on to the recovery from mis-prediction latency rather than on prediction latency as the most critical factor impacting accuracy of predictions for this class of branch predictors.

A local-global scheme for tracking crack path in three-dimensional solids

This paper aims to contribute to the three-dimensional generalization of numerical prediction of crack propagation through the formulation of finite elements with embedded discontinuities. The analysis of crack propagation in two-dimensional problems yields lines of discontinuity that can be tracked in a relatively simple way through the sequential construction of straight line segments oriented according to the direction of failure within each finite element in the solid. In three-dimensional analysis, the construction of the discontinuity path is more complex because it requires the creation of plane surfaces within each element, which must be continuous between the elements. In the method proposed by Chaves (2003) the crack is determined by solving a problem analogous to the heat conduction problem, established from local failure orientations, based on the stress state of the mechanical problem. To minimize the computational effort, in this paper a new strategy is proposed whereby the analysis for tracking the discontinuity path is restricted to the domain formed by some elements near the crack surface that develops along the loading process. The proposed methodology is validated by performing three-dimensional analyses of basic problems of experimental fractures and comparing their results with those reported in the literature.

Contributions to trajectory prediction theory and its application to arrival management for air traffic control

La gestión del tráfico aéreo (Air Traffic Management, ATM) está experimentando un cambio de paradigma hacia las denominadas operaciones basadas trayectoria. Bajo dicho paradigma se modifica el papel de los controladores de tráfico aéreo desde una operativa basada su intervención táctica continuada hacia una labor de supervisión a más largo plazo. Esto se apoya en la creciente confianza en las soluciones aportadas por las herramientas automatizadas de soporte a la decisión más modernas. Para dar soporte a este concepto, se precisa una importante inversión para el desarrollo, junto con la adquisición de nuevos equipos en tierra y embarcados, que permitan la sincronización precisa de la visión de la trayectoria, basada en el intercambio de información entre ambos actores. Durante los últimos 30 a 40 años las aerolíneas han generado uno de los menores retornos de la inversión de entre todas las industrias. Sin beneficios tangibles, la industria aérea tiene dificultades para atraer el capital requerido para su modernización, lo que retrasa la implantación de dichas mejoras. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo responder a la pregunta de si las capacidades actualmente instaladas en las aeronaves comerciales se pueden aplicar para lograr la sincronización de la trayectoria con el nivel de calidad requerido. Además, se analiza en ella si, conjuntamente con mejoras en las herramientas de predicción trayectorias instaladas en tierra en para facilitar la gestión de las arribadas, dichas capacidades permiten obtener los beneficios esperados en el marco de las operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Esto podría proporcionar un incentivo para futuras actualizaciones de la aviónica que podrían llevar a mejoras adicionales. El concepto operacional propuesto en esta tesis tiene como objetivo permitir que los aviones sean pilotados de una manera consistente con las técnicas actuales de vuelo optimizado. Se permite a las aeronaves que desciendan en el denominado “modo de ángulo de descenso gestionado” (path-managed mode), que es el preferido por la mayoría de las compañías aéreas, debido a que conlleva un reducido consumo de combustible. El problema de este modo es que en él no se controla de forma activa el tiempo de llegada al punto de interés. En nuestro concepto operacional, la incertidumbre temporal se gestiona en mediante de la medición del tiempo en puntos estratégicamente escogidos a lo largo de la trayectoria de la aeronave, y permitiendo la modificación por el control de tierra de la velocidad de la aeronave. Aunque la base del concepto es la gestión de las ordenes de velocidad que se proporcionan al piloto, para ser capaces de operar con los niveles de equipamiento típicos actualmente, dicho concepto también constituye un marco en el que la aviónica más avanzada (por ejemplo, que permita el control por el FMS del tiempo de llegada) puede integrarse de forma natural, una vez que esta tecnología este instalada. Además de gestionar la incertidumbre temporal a través de la medición en múltiples puntos, se intenta reducir dicha incertidumbre al mínimo mediante la mejora de las herramienta de predicción de la trayectoria en tierra. En esta tesis se presenta una novedosa descomposición del proceso de predicción de trayectorias en dos etapas. Dicha descomposición permite integrar adecuadamente los datos de la trayectoria de referencia calculada por el Flight Management System (FMS), disponibles usando Futuro Sistema de Navegación Aérea (FANS), en el sistema de predicción de trayectorias en tierra. FANS es un equipo presente en los aviones comerciales de fuselaje ancho actualmente en la producción, e incluso algunos aviones de fuselaje estrecho pueden tener instalada avionica FANS. Además de informar automáticamente de la posición de la aeronave, FANS permite proporcionar (parte de) la trayectoria de referencia en poder de los FMS, pero la explotación de esta capacidad para la mejora de la predicción de trayectorias no se ha estudiado en profundidad en el pasado. La predicción en dos etapas proporciona una solución adecuada al problema de sincronización de trayectorias aire-tierra dado que permite la sincronización de las dimensiones controladas por el sistema de guiado utilizando la información de la trayectoria de referencia proporcionada mediante FANS, y también facilita la mejora en la predicción de las dimensiones abiertas restantes usado un modelo del guiado que explota los modelos meteorológicos mejorados disponibles en tierra. Este proceso de predicción de la trayectoria de dos etapas se aplicó a una muestra de 438 vuelos reales que realizaron un descenso continuo (sin intervención del controlador) con destino Melbourne. Dichos vuelos son de aeronaves del modelo Boeing 737-800, si bien la metodología descrita es extrapolable a otros tipos de aeronave. El método propuesto de predicción de trayectorias permite una mejora en la desviación estándar del error de la estimación del tiempo de llegada al punto de interés, que es un 30% menor que la que obtiene el FMS. Dicha trayectoria prevista mejorada se puede utilizar para establecer la secuencia de arribadas y para la asignación de las franjas horarias para cada aterrizaje (slots). Sobre la base del slot asignado, se determina un perfil de velocidades que permita cumplir con dicho slot con un impacto mínimo en la eficiencia del vuelo. En la tesis se propone un nuevo algoritmo que determina las velocidades requeridas sin necesidad de un proceso iterativo de búsqueda sobre el sistema de predicción de trayectorias. El algoritmo se basa en una parametrización inteligente del proceso de predicción de la trayectoria, que permite relacionar el tiempo estimado de llegada con una función polinómica. Resolviendo dicho polinomio para el tiempo de llegada deseado, se obtiene de forma natural el perfil de velocidades optimo para cumplir con dicho tiempo de llegada sin comprometer la eficiencia. El diseño de los sistemas de gestión de arribadas propuesto en esta tesis aprovecha la aviónica y los sistemas de comunicación instalados de un modo mucho más eficiente, proporcionando valor añadido para la industria. Por tanto, la solución es compatible con la transición hacia los sistemas de aviónica avanzados que están desarrollándose actualmente. Los beneficios que se obtengan a lo largo de dicha transición son un incentivo para inversiones subsiguientes en la aviónica y en los sistemas de control de tráfico en tierra. ABSTRACT Air traffic management (ATM) is undergoing a paradigm shift towards trajectory based operations where the role of an air traffic controller evolves from that of continuous intervention towards supervision, as decision making is improved based on increased confidence in the solutions provided by advanced automation. To support this concept, significant investment for the development and acquisition of new equipment is required on the ground as well as in the air, to facilitate the high degree of trajectory synchronisation and information exchange required. Over the past 30-40 years the airline industry has generated one of the lowest returns on invested capital among all industries. Without tangible benefits realised, the airline industry may find it difficult to attract the required investment capital and delay acquiring equipment needed to realise the concept of trajectory based operations. In response to these challenges facing the modernisation of ATM, this thesis aims to answer the question whether existing aircraft capabilities can be applied to achieve sufficient trajectory synchronisation and improvements to ground-based trajectory prediction in support of the arrival management process, to realise some of the benefits envisioned under trajectory based operations, and to provide an incentive for further avionics upgrades. The proposed operational concept aims to permit aircraft to operate in a manner consistent with current optimal aircraft operating techniques. It allows aircraft to descend in the fuel efficient path managed mode as preferred by a majority of airlines, with arrival time not actively controlled by the airborne automation. The temporal uncertainty is managed through metering at strategically chosen points along the aircraft’s trajectory with primary use of speed advisories. While the focus is on speed advisories to support all aircraft and different levels of equipage, the concept also constitutes a framework in which advanced avionics as airborne time-of-arrival control can be integrated once this technology is widely available. In addition to managing temporal uncertainty through metering at multiple points, this temporal uncertainty is minimised by improving the supporting trajectory prediction capability. A novel two-stage trajectory prediction process is presented to adequately integrate aircraft trajectory data available through Future Air Navigation Systems (FANS) into the ground-based trajectory predictor. FANS is standard equipment on any wide-body aircraft in production today, and some single-aisle aircraft are easily capable of being fitted with FANS. In addition to automatic position reporting, FANS provides the ability to provide (part of) the reference trajectory held by the aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS), but this capability has yet been widely overlooked. The two-stage process provides a ‘best of both world’s’ solution to the air-ground synchronisation problem by synchronising with the FMS reference trajectory those dimensions controlled by the guidance mode, and improving on the prediction of the remaining open dimensions by exploiting the high resolution meteorological forecast available to a ground-based system. The two-stage trajectory prediction process was applied to a sample of 438 FANS-equipped Boeing 737-800 flights into Melbourne conducting a continuous descent free from ATC intervention, and can be extrapolated to other types of aircraft. Trajectories predicted through the two-stage approach provided estimated time of arrivals with a 30% reduction in standard deviation of the error compared to estimated time of arrival calculated by the FMS. This improved predicted trajectory can subsequently be used to set the sequence and allocate landing slots. Based on the allocated landing slot, the proposed system calculates a speed schedule for the aircraft to meet this landing slot at minimal flight efficiency impact. A novel algorithm is presented that determines this speed schedule without requiring an iterative process in which multiple calls to a trajectory predictor need to be made. The algorithm is based on parameterisation of the trajectory prediction process, allowing the estimate time of arrival to be represented by a polynomial function of the speed schedule, providing an analytical solution to the speed schedule required to meet a set arrival time. The arrival management solution proposed in this thesis leverages the use of existing avionics and communications systems resulting in new value for industry for current investment. The solution therefore supports a transition concept from mixed equipage towards advanced avionics currently under development. Benefits realised under this transition may provide an incentive for ongoing investment in avionics.

Event-based visual servoing with features’ prediction

Event-based visual servoing is a recently presented approach that performs the positioning of a robot using visual information only when it is required. From the basis of the classical image-based visual servoing control law, the scheme proposed in this paper can reduce the processing time at each loop iteration in some specific conditions. The proposed control method enters in action when an event deactivates the classical image-based controller (i.e. when there is no image available to perform the tracking of the visual features). A virtual camera is then moved through a straight line path towards the desired position. The virtual path used to guide the robot improves the behavior of the previous event-based visual servoing proposal.