Levesys : innovation management enabling a conversation about the future

This case study reports on the impact and business transformation of an IMP³rove assessment and follow-up workshop on Australian SME LEVESYS (www.levesys.com), which was undertaken by QMI Solutions. Innovation was not a foreign term to the company, which focuses on the development of enterprise resource planning (ERP) software for the Australian construction sector. However, before seeing and undergoing the IMP³rove process, this company had difficulty articulating their innovation problems and, therefore, had not achieved growth targets from its R&D efforts. This case study highlights the role of IMP³rove in assisting LEVESYS to take the first step in transforming itself through innovation.

Examining how projections about the future of society are related to present-day climate change action

Global climate change will affect all domains of person-environment relations. Tackling climate change will require social change that can be motivated by people’s imaginings of the future of their society where such social change has occurred. We use the “collective futures” framework to examine whether beliefs about the future of society are related to present-day intentions to take climate change action. Participants from two Brazilian samples imagined their society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated and then rated how this future society would differ from Brazilian society today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development and personal-level traits and values. To the extent that participants believed preventing climate change would result in societal development and more competence traits, they were more willing to engage in environmental citizenship activities. Individual differences in future time perspective also impacted environmental citizenship intention. Societal development and consideration of future consequences seem to be distinct routes by which future thinking influence climate change action.

Collective futures: How projections about the future of society are related to actions and attitudes supporting social change

We identified the active ingredients in people’s visions of society’s future (“collective futures”) that could drive political behavior in the present. In eight studies (N = 595), people imagined society in 2050 where climate change was mitigated (Study 1), abortion laws relaxed (Study 2), marijuana legalized (Study 3), or the power of different religious groups had increased (Studies 4-8). Participants rated how this future society would differ from today in terms of societal-level dysfunction and development (e.g., crime, inequality, education, technology), people’s character (warmth, competence, morality), and their values (e.g., conservation, self-transcendence). These measures were related to present-day attitudes/intentions that would promote/prevent this future (e.g., act on climate change, vote for a Muslim politician). A projection about benevolence in society (i.e., warmth/morality of people’s character) was the only dimension consistently and uniquely associated with present-day attitudes and intentions across contexts. Implications for social change theories, political communication, and policy design are discussed.

Franchise nations : the future of nations?

In this paper, I extend the notion of franchise nations, borrowed from Neal Stephenson’s cyberpunk novel Snow Crash (1993), in order to employ it as a device for thinking about the future of the nation. I argue the concept to be particularly well suited for such contemplation because of its sound grounding in the historical intermesh of economic, political and cultural motivations intrinsic to the concept as well as lived experience of the nation. I illustrate this very briefly by casting (mainland) China as the master franchisor and the overseas Chinese as franchisees. Specifically, I discuss the media events concerning China that took place during 2008, such as the protests and counter-protests that occurred at various legs of the Olympic Torch Relay, the Sichuan earthquake of 12 May and the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics on 8 August, and reactions to these happenings from overseas Chinese located variously in Australia, Canada and the United States. I argue that employing the notion of franchise nations lays bare the commercial and political instrumentalism behind the promotion and courtship of diasporas by home nations but, crucially, also aids in the understanding of the reciprocal processes by which franchisees are fashioned out of these communities. Finally, I suggest that, aside from China, franchise nations may also be a useful approach for thinking about how nations like India and Singapore are expanded, exported and explained into the future.

The future for public health

What is the future for public health in the twenty first century? Can we glean an idea about the future of public health from its past? As Winston Churchill once said ‘the further backward you look, the further forward you can see’. What then can we see in the history of public health that gives us an idea of where public health might be headed in the future? In the twentieth century there was substantial progress in public health in Australia. These improvements were brought about through a number of factors. In part, improvements were due to improved knowledge about the natural history of disease and its treatment. Added to this knowledge was a shifting focus from legislative measures to protect health, to the emergence of improved promotion and prevention strategies and a general improvement in social and economic conditions for people living in countries like Australia. The same could not, however, be said for poorer countries, many of whom have the most fundamental of sanitary and health protection issues still to deal with. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa and Russia, the decline in life expectancy may be an aberration or it may be related to a range of interconnected factors. In Russia, factors such as alcoholism, violence, suicide, accidents and cardiovascular disease could be contributing to the falling life expectancy (McMichael & Butler 2007). In sub-Saharan Africa, a range of issues such as HIV/AIDS, poverty, malaria, tuberculosis, undernutrition, totally inadequate infrastructure, gender inequality, conflict and violence, political taboos and a complete lack of political will, have all contributed to a dramatic drop in life expectancy (McMichael & Butler 2007).

The future of design

When asked about the future of design, I immediately think of two things. Firstly, I am drawn to the concept of design thinking - the process individuals go through when critically evaluating a situation, place, space or circumstance and reframing it. Design thinking is the critical reframing process. Secondly, my thoughts turn to education and the teaching of design thinking and the late philosopher John Dewey (1910:139), who states...

Emergency healthcare of the future

Emergency healthcare is a high profile component of modern healthcare systems, which over the past three decades has fundamentally transformed in many countries. However, despite this rapid development, and associated investments in service standards, there is a high level of concern with the performance of emergency health services relating principally to system wide congestion. The factors driving this problem are complex but relate largely to the combined impact of growing demand, expanded scope of care and blocked access to inpatient beds. These factors are unlikely to disappear in the medium term despite the National Emergency Access Target. The aim of this article is to stimulate a conversation about the future design and functioning of emergency healthcare systems; examining what we understand about the problem and proposing a rationale that may underpin future strategic approaches. This is also an invitation to join the conversation.

Echoes of the future: Adults with disabilities living at home with their parents

Almost 90% of all adult sons and daughters with disabilities live at home with their parents. Consequently, they have life experiences that are atypical for most of their adult peers and their aging caregivers are under stress due to failing health, financial pressures, bereavement, and worry about the future.

Adults with intellectual disabilities and aging parents took part in focus groups and interviews. results show a loving and caring home environment but evidence a lack of effective life skills development and futures planning. the paper draws attention to the inevitable crisis that occurs when aging caregivers are no longer able to care. The urgent need for skill development and timely futures planning is outlined.

Remembering forwards: or how to live together in the future with divided memories

Memory is thought to be about the past. The past is a problem in conflict transformation. This lecture suggests memory can also be about the future. It introduces the notion of remembering forwards, which is contrasted with remembering backwards. The distinction between these two forms of remembering defines the burden of memory in post-conflict societies generally and specifically in Ireland. In societies emerging out of conflict, where divided memories in part constituted the conflict, social memory privileges remembering backward. Collective and personal memories elide within social memory to perpetuate divided group identities and contested personal narratives. Above all, social memory works to arbitrate the future, by predisposing an extreme memory culture that locks people into the past. Forgetting the past is impossible and undesirable. What is needed in societies emerging out of conflict is to be released from the hold that oppressive and haunting memories have over people. This lecture will suggest that this is found in the idea of remembering forwards. This is not the same as forgetting. It is remembering to cease to remember oppressive and haunting memories. It does not involve non-remembrance but active remembering: remembering to cease to remember the past. While the past lives in us always, remembering forwards assists us in not living in the past. Remembering forwards thus allows us to live in tolerance in the future despite the reality that divided memories endure and live on. The lecture further argues that these enduring divided memories need to be reimagined by the application of truth, tolerance, togetherness and trajectory. The lecture suggests that it is through remembering forwards with truth, tolerance, togetherness and trajectory that people in post-conflict societies can inherit the future despite their divided pasts and live in tolerance in the midst of contested memories.

A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution

Although panel discussants disagreed whether the biodiversity crisis constitutes a mass extinction event, all agreed that current extinction rates are 50–500 times background and are increasing and that the consequences for the future evolution of life are serious. In response to the on-going rapid decline of biomes and homogenization of biotas, the panelists predicted changes in species geographic ranges, genetic risks of extinction, genetic assimilation, natural selection, mutation rates, the shortening of food chains, the increase in nutrient-enriched niches permitting the ascendancy of microbes, and the differential survival of ecological generalists. Rates of evolutionary processes will change in different groups, and speciation in the larger vertebrates is essentially over. Action taken over the next few decades will determine how impoverished the biosphere will be in 1,000 years when many species will suffer reduced evolvability and require interventionist genetic and ecological management. Whether the biota will continue to provide the dependable ecological services humans take for granted is less clear. The discussants offered recommendations, including two of paramount importance (concerning human populations and education), seven identifying specific scientific activities to better equip us for stewardship of the processes of evolution, and one suggesting that such stewardship is now our responsibility. The ultimate test of evolutionary biology as a science is not whether it solves the riddles of the past but rather whether it enables us to manage the future of the biosphere. Our inability to make clearer predictions about the future of evolution has serious consequences for both biodiversity and humanity.

The German Constitutional Court’s decision about the European Central Bank’s OMT [Outright Monetary Transactions] mechanism: A masterpiece of judicial arrogance. European Policy Briefs No. 30, April 2014

The German Constitutional Court (BVG) recently referred different questions to the European Court of Justice for a preliminary ruling. They concern the legality of the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transaction mechanism created in 2012. Simultaneously, the German Court has threatened to disrupt the implementation of OTM in Germany if its very restrictive analysis is not validated by the European Court of Justice. This raises fundamental questions about the future efficiency of the ECB’s monetary policy, the damage to the independence of the ECB, the balance of power between judges and political organs in charge of economic policy, in Germany and in Europe, and finally the relationship between the BVG and other national or European courts.