Bayesian inference for two-parameter gamma distribution assuming different noninformative priors

In this paper distinct prior distributions are derived in a Bayesian inference of the two-parameters Gamma distribution. Noniformative priors, such as Jeffreys, reference, MDIP, Tibshirani and an innovative prior based on the copula approach are investigated. We show that the maximal data information prior provides in an improper posterior density and that the different choices of the parameter of interest lead to different reference priors in this case. Based on the simulated data sets, the Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the unknown parameters are computed and the performance of the prior distributions are evaluated. The Bayesian analysis is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to generate samples from the posterior distributions under the above priors.

A Bayesian Analysis of Spectral ARMA Model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A bayesian analysis for the parameters of the exponential-logarithmic distribution

The exponential-logarithmic is a new lifetime distribution with decreasing failure rate and interesting applications in the biological and engineering sciences. Thus, a Bayesian analysis of the parameters would be desirable. Bayesian estimation requires the selection of prior distributions for all parameters of the model. In this case, researchers usually seek to choose a prior that has little information on the parameters, allowing the data to be very informative relative to the prior information. Assuming some noninformative prior distributions, we present a Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Jeffreys prior is derived for the parameters of exponential-logarithmic distribution and compared with other common priors such as beta, gamma, and uniform distributions. In this article, we show through a simulation study that the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist except under restrictive conditions. In addition, the posterior density is sometimes bimodal when an improper prior density is used. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Análise Bayesiana para a distribuição Exponencial-Logarítmica

Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

Estimating vadose zone hydraulic properties using ground penetrating radar: The impact of prior information

A number of geophysical methods, such as ground-penetrating radar (GPR), have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for the effective estimation of vadose zone hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. A critical issue in stochastic inversion is choosing prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data. A well chosen prior should reflect as honestly as possible the initial state of knowledge regarding the parameters and be neither overly specific nor too conservative. In a Bayesian context, combining the prior with available data yields a posterior state of knowledge about the parameters, which can then be used statistically for predictions and risk assessment. Here we investigate the influence of prior information regarding the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters, which describe vadose zone hydraulic properties, on the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data collected under steady state, natural-loading conditions. We do this using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach, considering first noninformative uniform prior distributions and then more informative priors derived from soil property databases. For the informative priors, we further explore the effect of including information regarding parameter correlation. Analysis of both synthetic and field data indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when we combine these data with a realistic, informative prior.

Bayesian estimation of generalized exponential distribution under noninformative priors

The generalized exponential distribution, proposed by Gupta and Kundu (1999), is a good alternative to standard lifetime distributions as exponential, Weibull or gamma. Several authors have considered the problem of Bayesian estimation of the parameters of generalized exponential distribution, assuming independent gamma priors and other informative priors. In this paper, we consider a Bayesian analysis of the generalized exponential distribution by assuming the conventional non-informative prior distributions, as Jeffreys and reference prior, to estimate the parameters. These priors are compared with independent gamma priors for both parameters. The comparison is carried out by examining the frequentist coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals. We shown that maximal data information prior implies in an improper posterior distribution for the parameters of a generalized exponential distribution. It is also shown that the choice of a parameter of interest is very important for the reference prior. The different choices lead to different reference priors in this case. Numerical inference is illustrated for the parameters by considering data set of different sizes and using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods.

Modulation of post-coital dopaminergic tone by prior parity

The aim of this study was to investigate the possible effects of reproductive experience on dopaminergic profile in three different brain tissues, hypothalamus, striatum and cortex in rats on 7th-8th day of pregnancy during the light-dark shift (between 1700-1900h). Results showed that in hypothalamus, dopamine levels increased and DOPAC/DA decreased as a function of parity. In cortex, no differences were observed. In striata, the haloperidol-induced HVA and HVA/DA increases were less intense in experienced animals. These findings suggested that reproductive experience produced functional central changes during pregnancy, with different neurochemical responses depending on the brain region.

An expert flow system involving in-line prior assay for turbidimetric determination of chloride and sulphate in natural waters

A multi-pumping flow system exploiting prior assay is proposed for sequential turbidimetric determination of sulphate and chloride in natural waters. Both methods are implemented in the same manifold that provides facilities for: in-line sample clean-up with a Bio-Rex 70 mini-column with fluidized beads: addition of low amounts of sulphate or chloride ions to the reaction medium for improving supersaturation; analyte precipitation with Ba(2+) or Ag(+); real-time decision on the need for next assay. The sample is initially run for chloride determination, and the analytical signal is compared with a preset value. If higher, the sample is run again, now for sulphate determination. The strategy may lead to all increased sample throughput. The proposed system is computer-controlled and presents enhanced figures of merit. About 10 samples are run per hour (about 60 measurements) and results are reproducible and Unaffected by the presence of potential interfering ions at concentration levels usually found in natural waters. Accuracy was assessed against ion chromatography. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of beta-artemether and its main metabolite dihydroartemisinin in plasma employing liquid-phase microextraction prior to liquid chromatographic-tandem mass spectrometric analysis

A method for the determination of artemether (ART) and its main metabolite dihydroartemisinin (DHA) in plasma employing liquid-phase microextraction (LPME) for sample preparation prior to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS-MS) was developed. The analytes were extracted from 1 nil, of plasma utilizing a two-phase LPME procedure with artemisinin as internal standard. Using the optimized LPME conditions, mean absolute recovery rates of 25 and 32% for DHA and ART, respectively, were achieved using toluene-n-octanol (1:1, viv) as organic phase with an extraction time of 30 min. After extraction, the analytes were resolved within 5 min using a mobile phase consisting of methanol-ammonium acetate (10 mmol L(-1) pH 5.0, 80:20. v/v) on a laboratory-made column based on poly(methyltetradecylsiloxane) attached to a zirconized-silica support. MS-MS detection was employed using an electrospray interface in the positive ion mode. The method developed was linear over the range of 5-1000 ng mL(-1) for both analytes. Precision and accuracy were within acceptable levels of confidence (<15%). The assay was applied to the determination of these analytes in plasma from rats treated with ART. The two-phase LPME procedure is affordable and the solvent consumption was very low compared to the traditional methods of sample preparation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prior and concomitant dehydroepiandrosterone treatment affects immunologic response of cultured macrophages infected with Trypanosoma cruzi in vitro?

DHEA, a steroid hormone synthesized from cholesterol by cells of the adrenal cortex, plays an essential role in enhancing the host`s resistance to different experimental infections. Receptors for this hormone can be found in distinct immune cells (especially macrophages) that are known to be the first line defense against Trypanosoma cruzi infection. These cells operate through an indirect pathway releasing nitric oxide (NO) and cytokines such TNF-alpha and IL-12 which in turn trigger an enhancement of natural killer cells and lymphocytes which finally secrete pro and anti-inflammatory cytokines. The effects of pre- and post-infection DHEA treatment on production of IL-12, TNF alpha and NO were evaluated. T. cruzi infected macrophages post treated with DHEA displayed enhanced concentrations of TNF-alpha, IL-12 and NO. Probably, the mechanisms that induced the production of cytokines by infected cells are more efficient when the immune system has been stimulated first by parasite invasion, suggesting that the protective role of DHEA is greater when administered post infection. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prior calcium channel blockade and short-term survival following acute myocardial infarction

There is concern over the safety of calcium channel blockers (CCBs) in acute coronary disease. We sought to determine if patients taking calcium channel blockers (CCBs) at the time of admission with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) had a higher case-fatality compared with those taking beta-blockers or neither medication. Clinical and drug treatment variables at the time of hospital admission predictive of survival at 28 days were examined in a community-based registry of patients aged under 65 years admitted to hospital for suspected AMI in Perth, Australia, between 1984 and 1993. Among 7766 patients, 1291 (16.6%) were taking a CCB and 1259 (16.2%) a betablocker alone at hospital admission. Patients taking CCBs had a worse clinical profile than those taking a beta-blocker alone or neither drug (control group), and a higher unadjusted 28-day mortality (17.6% versus 9.3% and 11.1% respectively, both P < 0.001). There was no significant heterogeneity with respect to mortality between nifedipine, diltiazem, or verapamil when used alone, or with a beta-blocker. After adjustment for factors predictive of death at 28 days, patients taking a CCB were found not to have an excess chance of death compared with the control group (odds ratio [OR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.87, 1.30), whereas those taking a beta-blocker alone had a lower odds of death (OR 0.75, 95% CI; 0.59, 0.94). These results indicate that established calcium channel blockade is not associated with an excess risk of death following AMI once other differences between patients are taken into account, but neither does it have the survival advantage seen with prior beta-blocker therapy.

Children`s oral production of narratives and constructive memory using prior reading of pictures

With the purpose of approximating two issues, oral narrative and constructive memory, we assume that children, as well as adults, have a constructive memory. Accordingly, researchers of the constructive memory share with piagetians the vision that memory is an applied cognition. Under this perspective, understanding and coding into memory constitute a process which is considered similar to the piagetian assimilation of building an internal conceptual representation of the information (hence the term constructive memory. The objective of this study is to examine and illustrate, through examples drawn from a research about oral narrative with 5, 8 and 10 years old children, the extent to which the constructive memory is stimulated by the acquisition of the structures of knowledge or ""mental models"" (schemes of stories and scenes, scripts), and if they automatically employ them to process constructively the information in storage and rebuild them in the recovery. A sequence of five pictures from a book without text was transformed into computerized program, and the pictures were thus presented to the children. The story focuses on a misunderstanding of two characters on a different assessment about a key event. In data collection, the demands of memory were preserved, since children narrate their stories when the images were no longer viewed on the computer screen. Each narrative was produced as a monologue. The results show that this story can be told either in a descriptive level or in a more elaborated level, where intentions and beliefs are attributed to the characters. Although this study allows an assessment of the development of children`s capabilities (both cognitive and linguistic) to narrate a story, there are for sure other issues that could be exploited.

Double-blind, Randomized placebo controlled trial of fulvestrant compared with exemestane after prior nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitor therapy in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, advanced breast cancer: Results from EFECT

Purpose The third-generation nonsteroidal aromatase inhibitors (AIs) are increasingly used as adjuvant and first-line advanced therapy for postmenopausal, hormone receptor-positive (HR +) breast cancer. Because many patients subsequently experience progression or relapse, it is important to identify agents with efficacy after AI failure. Materials and Methods Evaluation of Faslodex versus Exemestane Clinical Trial (EFECT) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled, multicenter phase III trial of fulvestrant versus exemestane in postmenopausal women with HR + advanced breast cancer (ABC) progressing or recurring after nonsteroidal AI. The primary end point was time to progression (TTP). A fulvestrant loading-dose (LD) regimen was used: 500 mg intramuscularly on day 0, 250 mg on days 14, 28, and 250 mg every 28 days thereafter. Exemestane 25 mg orally was administered once daily. Results A total of 693 women were randomly assigned to fulvestrant (n = 351) or exemestane ( n = 342). Approximately 60% of patients had received at least two prior endocrine therapies. Median TTP was 3.7 months in both groups ( hazard ratio = 0.963; 95% CI, 0.819 to 1.133; P = .6531). The overall response rate ( 7.4% v 6.7%; P = .736) and clinical benefit rate ( 32.2% v 31.5%; P = .853) were similar between fulvestrant and exemestane respectively. Median duration of clinical benefit was 9.3 and 8.3 months, respectively. Both treatments were well tolerated, with no significant differences in the incidence of adverse events or quality of life. Pharmacokinetic data confirm that steady-state was reached within 1 month with the LD schedule of fulvestrant. Conclusion Fulvestrant LD and exemestane are equally active and well-tolerated in a meaningful proportion of postmenopausal women with ABC who have experienced progression or recurrence during treatment with a nonsteroidal AI.

Use of Acoustic Doppler Sonography to Ascertain the Feasibility of the Pedicled Nasoseptal Flap After Prior Bilateral Sphenoidotomy

Objectives/Hypothesis: Blood supply to the Hadad-Bassagasteguy pedicled nasoseptal flap may be interrupted by surgery of the pterygopalatine fossa, posterior septectomy, or large sphenoidotomies. This would preclude its use for reconstruction of skull base defects after expanded endonasal approaches (EEA). We present a novel method to ascertain the patency of the nasoseptal artery after prior surgery, and consequently the availability of the nasoseptal flap, using acoustic Doppler sonography. Study Design: Retrospective clinical review. Methods: Four patients who underwent EEAs were evaluated intraoperatively with acoustic Doppler sonography. The mucosa that covers the inferior aspect of the rostrum of the sphenoid sinus was scanned with the tip of the probe. Reflection of sound waves representing intravascular blood flow was assessed. Results: In three patients, the artery was identified in at least one side. One remaining patient showed no acoustic signal suggesting loss of the nasoseptal artery bilaterally, therefore necessitating the use of a fat graft for the reconstruction. Conclusions: Acoustic Doppler sonography seems to be a feasible and effective way to ascertain the availability of the nasoseptal artery. It is a relatively inexpensive and simple technique that can be performed by any endoscopic surgeon.