903 resultados para multivariate logistic regression analysis


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Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

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The history of the logistic function since its introduction in 1838 is reviewed, and the logistic model for a polychotomous response variable is presented with a discussion of the assumptions involved in its derivation and use. Following this, the maximum likelihood estimators for the model parameters are derived along with a Newton-Raphson iterative procedure for evaluation. A rigorous mathematical derivation of the limiting distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators is then presented using a characteristic function approach. An appendix with theorems on the asymptotic normality of sample sums when the observations are not identically distributed, with proofs, supports the presentation on asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, two applications of the model are presented using data from the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program, a prospective, population-based, randomized trial of treatment for hypertension. The first application compares the risk of five-year mortality from cardiovascular causes with that from noncardiovascular causes; the second application compares risk factors for fatal or nonfatal coronary heart disease with those for fatal or nonfatal stroke. ^

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INTRODUCTION: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common clinical syndrome with high mortality and long-term morbidity. To date there is no effective pharmacological therapy. Aspirin therapy has recently been shown to reduce the risk of developing ARDS, but the effect of aspirin on established ARDS is unknown.

METHODS: In a single large regional medical and surgical ICU between December 2010 and July 2012, all patients with ARDS were prospectively identified and demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were recorded retrospectively. Aspirin usage, both pre-hospital and during intensive care unit (ICU) stay, was included. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess the impact of these variables on ICU mortality.

RESULTS: In total, 202 patients with ARDS were included; 56 (28%) of these received aspirin either pre-hospital, in the ICU, or both. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, aspirin therapy, given either before or during hospital stay, was associated with a reduction in ICU mortality (odds ratio (OR) 0.38 (0.15 to 0.96) P = 0.04). Additional factors that predicted ICU mortality for patients with ARDS were vasopressor use (OR 2.09 (1.05 to 4.18) P = 0.04) and APACHE II score (OR 1.07 (1.02 to 1.13) P = 0.01). There was no effect upon ICU length of stay or hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION: Aspirin therapy was associated with a reduced risk of ICU mortality. These data are the first to demonstrate a potential protective role for aspirin in patients with ARDS. Clinical trials to evaluate the role of aspirin as a pharmacological intervention for ARDS are needed.

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Objective: To identify any association between the response priority code generated during calls to the ambulance communication centre and patient reports of pain severity.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of patient care records was undertaken for all patients transported by paramedics over a 7-day period. The primary research interest was the association between the response code allocated at the time of telephone triage and the initial pain severity score recorded using a numeric rating scale (NRS). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to analyse the association between the response priority variable and explanatory variables.

Results: There were 1246 cases in which both an initial pain score using the NRS and a response code were recorded. Of these cases, 716/1246 (57.5%) were associated with a code 1 ("time-critical") response. After adjusting for gender, age, cause of pain and duration of pain, a multivariate logistic regression analysis found no significant change in the odds of a patient in pain receiving a time-critical response compared with patients who had no pain, regardless of their initial pain score (NRS 1–3, odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.8; NRS 4–7, OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.8; NRS 8–10, OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.5 to 1.4).

Conclusion: The severity of pain experienced by the patient appeared to have no influence on the priority (urgency) of the dispatch response. Triage systems used to prioritise ambulance calls and decide the urgency of response or type of referral options should consider pain severity to facilitate timely and humane care.

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Background Medication side effects are an important cause of morbidity, mortality and costs in older people. The aim of our study was to examine prevalence and risk factors for self-reported medication side effects in an older cohort living independently in the community.

Methods The Melbourne Longitudinal Study on Healthy Ageing (MELSHA), collected information on those aged 65 years or older living independently in the community and commenced in 1994. Data on medication side effects was collected from the baseline cohort (n = 1000) in face-to-face baseline interviews in 1994 and analysed as cross-sectional data. Risk factors examined were: socio-demographics, health status and medical conditions; medication use and health service factors. Analysis included univariate logistic regression to estimate unadjusted risk and multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess confounding and estimate adjusted risk.

Results Self-reported medication side effects were reported by approximately 6.7% (67/1000) of the entire baseline MELSHA cohort, and by 8.5% (65/761) of those on medication. Identified risk factors were increased education level, co-morbidities and health service factors including recency of visiting the pharmacist, attending younger doctors, and their doctor's awareness of their medications. The greatest increase in risk for medication side effects was associated with liver problems and their doctor's awareness of their medications. Aging and gender were not risk factors.

Conclusion Prevalence of self-reported medication side effects was comparable with that reported in adults attending General Practices in a primary care setting in Australia. The prevalence and identified risk factors provide further insight and opportunity to develop strategies to address the problem of medication side effects in older people living independently in the community setting.

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The employment effect from raising the minimum wage has long been studied but remains in dispute. Our meta-analysis of 236 estimated minimum wage elasticities and 710 partial correlation coefficients from 16 UK studies finds no overall practically significant adverse employment effect. Unlike US studies, there seems to be little, if any, overall reporting bias. Multivariate meta-regression analysis identifies several research dimensions that are associated with differential employment effects. In particular, the residential home care industry may exhibit a genuinely adverse employment effect.

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OBJECTIVE: To compare the risk of shunt-dependent hydrocephalus after treatment of ruptured intracranial aneurysms by clipping versus coiling. METHODS: We analyzed 596 patients prospectively added to our database from July of 1999 to November of 2005 concerning the risk of shunt dependency after clipping versus coiling. Factors analyzed included age; sex; Hunt and Hess grade; Fisher grade; acute hydrocephalus; intraventricular hemorrhage; angiographic vasospasm; and number, size, and location of aneurysms. In addition, a meta-analysis of available data from the literature was performed identifying four studies with quantitative data on the frequency of clip, coil, and shunt dependency. RESULTS: The institutional series revealed Hunt and Hess grade, Fisher grade, acute hydrocephalus, intraventricular hemorrhage, and angiographic vasospasm as significant (P < 0.05) risk factors for shunt dependency after a univariate analysis. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, we isolated intraventricular hemorrhage, acute hydrocephalus, and angiographic vasospasm as independent, significant risk factors for shunt dependency. The meta-analysis, including the current data, revealed a significantly higher risk for shunt dependency after coiling than after clipping (P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Clipping of a ruptured aneurysm may be associated with a lower risk for developing shunt dependency, possibly by clot removal. This might influence long-term outcome and surgical decision making.

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OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

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Background Protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM) is common in people with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing maintenance haemodialysis (MHD) and correlates strongly with mortality. To this day, there is no gold standard for detecting PEM in patients on MHD. Aim of Study The aim of this study was to evaluate if Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), handgrip strength measurement, mid-upper arm muscle area (MUAMA), triceps skin fold measurement (TSF), serum albumin, normalised protein catabolic rate (nPCR), Kt/V and eKt/V, dry body weight, body mass index (BMI), age and time since start on MHD are relevant for assessing PEM in patients on MHD. Methods The predictive value of the selected parameters on mortality and mortality or weight loss of more than 5% was assessed. Quantitative data analysis of the 12 parameters in the same patients on MHD in autumn 2009 (n = 64) and spring 2011 (n = 40) with paired statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results Paired data analysis showed significant reduction of dry body weight, BMI and nPCR. Kt/Vtot did not change, eKt/v and hand grip strength measurements were significantly higher in spring 2011. No changes were detected in TSF, serum albumin, NRS-2002 and MUAMA. Serum albumin was shown to be the only predictor of death and of the combined endpoint “death or weight loss of more than 5%”. Conclusion We now screen patients biannually for serum albumin, nPCR, Kt/V, handgrip measurement of the shunt-free arm, dry body weight, age and time since initiation of MHD.

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We conducted a nested case-control study to determine the significant risk factors for developing encephalitis from West Nile virus (WNV) infection. The purpose of this research project was to expand the previously published Houston study of 2002–2004 patients to include data on Houston patients from four additional years (2005–2008) to determine if there were any differences in risk factors shown to be associated with developing the more severe outcomes of WNV infection, encephalitis and death, by having this larger sample size. A re-analysis of the risk factors for encephalitis and death was conducted on all of the patients from 2002–2008 and was the focus of this proposed research. This analysis allowed for the determination to be made that there are differences in the outcome in the risk factors for encephalitis and death with an increased sample size. Retrospective medical chart reviews were completed for the 265 confirmed WNV hospitalized patients; 153 patients had encephalitis (WNE), 112 had either viral syndrome with fever (WNF) or meningitis (WNM); a total of 22 patients died. Univariate logistic regression analyses on demographic, comorbidities, and social risk factors was conducted in a similar manner as in the previously conducted study to determine the risk factors for developing encephalitis from WNV. A multivariate model was developed by using model building strategies for the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The hypothesis of this study was that there would be additional risk factors shown to be significant with the increase in sample size of the dataset. This analysis with a greater sample size and increased power supports the hypothesis in that there were additional risk factors shown to be statistically associated with the more severe outcomes of WNV infection (WNE or death). Based on univariate logistic regression results, these data showed that even though age of 20–44 years was statistically significant as a protecting effect for developing WNE in the original study, the expanded sample lacked significance. This study showed a significant WNE risk factor to be chronic alcohol abuse, when it was not significant in the original analysis. Other WNE risk factors identified in this analysis that showed to be significant but were not significant in the original analysis were cancer not in remission > 5 years, history of stroke, and chronic renal disease. When comparing the two analyses with death as an outcome, two risk factors that were shown to be significant in the original analysis but not in the expanded dataset analysis were diabetes mellitus and immunosuppression. Three risk factors shown to be significant in this expanded analysis but were not significant in the original study were illicit drug use, heroin or opiate use, and injection drug use. However, with the multiple logistic regression models, the same independent risk factors for developing encephalitis of age and history of hypertension including drug induced hypertension were consistent in both studies.^

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Objectives: To evaluate the clinical value of pre-operative serum CA125 in predicting the presence of extra-uterine disease in patients with apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: Between October 6, 2005 and June 17, 2010, 760 patients were enrolled in an international, multicentre, prospective randomized trial (LACE) comparing laparotomy with laparoscopy in the management of endometrial cancer apparently confined to the uterus. This study is based on data from 657 patients with endometrial adenocarcinoma who had a pre-operative serum CA125 value, and was undertaken to correlate pre-operative serum CA125 with final stage. Results: Using a pre-operative CA-125 cutpoint of 30U/ml was associated with the smallest misclassification error (14.5%) using a multiple cross-validation method. Median pre-operative serum CA-125 was 14U/ml, and using a cutpoint of 30U/ml, 14.9% of patients had elevated CA-125 levels. Of 98 patients with elevated CA-125 level, 36 (36.7%) had evidence of extra-uterine disease. Of the 116 patients (17.7%) with evidence of extra-uterine disease, 31.0% had elevated CA-125 level. In univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, only pre-operative CA-125 level was found to be associated with extra-uterine spread of disease. Utilising a cutpoint of 30U/ml achieved a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 31.0%, 88.5%, 36.7% and 85.7% respectively. Overall, 326/657 (49.6%) of patients had full surgical staging involving lymph node dissection. When analysis was limited to patients that had undergone full surgical staging, the outcomes remained essentially unchanged. Conclusions: Elevated CA-125 above 30U/ml in patients with apparent early stage disease is associated with a sensitivity of 31.0% and specificity of 88.5% in detecting extra-uterine disease. Pre-operative identification of this risk factor may assist to triage patients to tertiary centres and comprehensive surgical staging.

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In the elderly, the risks for protein-energy malnutrition from older age, dementia, depression and living alone have been well-documented. Other risk factors including anorexia, gastrointestinal dysfunction, loss of olfactory and taste senses and early satiety have also been suggested to contribute to poor nutritional status. In Parkinson’s disease (PD), it has been suggested that the disease symptoms may predispose people with PD to malnutrition. However, the risks for malnutrition in this population are not well-understood. The current study’s aim was to determine malnutrition risk factors in community-dwelling adults with PD. Nutritional status was assessed using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Data about age, time since diagnosis, medications and living situation were collected. Levodopa equivalent doses (LDED) and LDED per kg body weight (mg/kg) were calculated. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI) and Spielberger Trait Anxiety questionnaire, respectively. Cognitive function was assessed using the Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination (ACE-R). Non-motor symptoms were assessed using the Scales for Outcomes in Parkinson's disease-Autonomic (SCOPA-AUT) and Modified Constipation Assessment Scale (MCAS). A total of 125 community-dwelling people with PD were included, average age of 70.2±9.3(35-92) years and average time since diagnosis of 7.3±5.9(0–31) years. Average body mass index (BMI) was 26.0±5.5kg/m2. Of these, 15% (n=19) were malnourished (SGA-B). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that older age (OR=1.16, CI=1.02-1.31), more depressive symptoms (OR=1.26, CI=1.07-1.48), lower levels of anxiety (OR=.90, CI=.82-.99), and higher LDED per kg body weight (OR=1.57, CI=1.14-2.15) significantly increased malnutrition risk. Cognitive function, living situation, number of prescription medications, LDED, years since diagnosis and the severity of non-motor symptoms did not significantly influence malnutrition risk. Malnutrition results in poorer health outcomes. Proactively addressing the risk factors can help prevent declines in nutritional status. In the current study, older people with PD with depression and greater amounts of levodopa per body weight were at increased malnutrition risk.

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Background. To establish whether sensorimotor function and balance are associated with on-road driving performance in older adults. Methods. The performance of 270 community-living adults aged 70–88 years recruited via the electoral roll was measured on a battery of peripheral sensation, strength, flexibility, reaction time, and balance tests and on a standardized measure of on-road driving performance. Results. Forty-seven participants (17.4%) were classified as unsafe based on their driving assessment. Unsafe driving was associated with reduced peripheral sensation, lower limb weakness, reduced neck range of motion, slow reaction time, and poor balance in univariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified poor vibration sensitivity, reduced quadriceps strength, and increased sway on a foam surface with eyes closed as significant and independent risk factors for unsafe driving. These variables classified participants into safe and unsafe drivers with a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 70%. Conclusions. A number of sensorimotor and balance measures were associated with driver safety and the multivariate model comprising measures of sensation, strength, and balance was highly predictive of unsafe driving in this sample. These findings highlight important determinants of driver safety and may assist in developing efficacious driver safety strategies for older drivers.

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Mediastinitis as a complication after cardiac surgery is rare but disastrous increasing the hospital stay, hospital costs, morbidity and mortality. It occurs in 1-3 % of patients after median sternotomy. The purpose of this study was to find out the risk factors and also to investigate new ways to prevent mediastinitis. First, we assessed operating room air contamination monitoring by comparing the bacteriological technique with continuous particle counting in low level contamination achieved by ultra clean garment options in 66 coronary artery bypass grafting operations. Second, we examined surgical glove perforations and the changes in bacterial flora of surgeons' fingertips in 116 open-heart operations. Third, the effect of gentamicin-collagen sponge on preventing surgical site infections (SSI) was studied in randomized controlled study with 557 participants. Finally, incidence, outcome, and risk factors of mediastinitis were studied in over 10,000 patients. With the alternative garment and textile system (cotton group and clean air suit group), the air counts fell from 25 to 7 colony-forming units/m3 (P<0.01). The contamination of the sternal wound was reduced by 46% and that of the leg wound by >90%. In only 17% operations both gloves were found unpunctured. Frequency of glove perforations and bacteria counts of hands were found to increase with operation time. With local gentamicin prophylaxis slightly less SSIs (4.0 vs. 5.9%) and mediastinitis (1.1 vs. 1.9%) occurred. We identified 120/10713 cases of postoperative mediastinitis (1.1%). During the study period, the patient population grew significantly older, the proportion of women and patients with ASA score >3 increased significantly. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the only significant predictor for mediastinitis was obesity. Continuous particle monitoring is a good intraoperative method to control the air contamination related to the theatre staff behavior during individual operation. When a glove puncture is detected, both gloves are to be changed. Before donning a new pair of gloves, the renewed disinfection of hands will help to keep their bacterial counts lower even towards the end of long operation. Gentamicin-collagen sponge may have beneficial effects on the prevention of SSI, but further research is needed. Mediastinitis is not diminishing. Larger populations at risk, for example proportions of overweight patients, reinforce the importance of surveillance and pose a challenge in focusing preventive measures.

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Pacientes com doença renal crônica (DRC) na fase não dialítica são normalmente orientados a seguir uma dieta hipoproteica e hipossódica. Estudos nacionais e internacionais mostram que a adesão a essa dieta tem sido baixa e difícil de ser mantida, pois requer mudanças importantes no hábito alimentar. O objetivo do presente estudo foi avaliar o impacto de um programa de educação nutricional sobre a adesão à dieta hipoproteica em pacientes com DRC em tratamento conservador. Trata-se de um ensaio clínico randomizado, prospectivo com duração de 5 1,5 meses. Foram acompanhados 85 pacientes com DRC na fase não dialítica, atendidos em dois Ambulatórios de Nutrição e Doenças Renais do Hospital Universitário Pedro Ernesto. Os pacientes foram divididos de forma aleatória em 2 grupos: Intervenção (n=39) e Controle (n=46). Os pacientes do Grupo Intervenção foram submetidos a um programa de educação nutricional, além da orientação de dieta hipoproteica (0,6 a 0,75 g/kg/dia). Os pacientes do Grupo Controle foram submetidos apenas à orientação de dieta hipoproteica (0,6 a 0,75 g/kg/dia). A avaliação da adesão foi feita a partir da estimativa do consumo de proteína por recordatório alimentar de 24 horas. Adotou-se como critério de adesão apresentar ao final do estudo redução de ao menos 20% da ingestão proteica inicial. A avaliação nutricional e laboratorial foi realizada no início e no término do estudo. Os parâmetros antropométricos avaliados foram peso, estatura, dobras cutâneas do tríceps, bíceps, subescapular e supra-ilíaca e perímetro da cintura e do braço. As laboratoriais foram creatinina, uréia, potássio, fósforo, glicose e albumina no plasma e sódio e uréia na urina de 24 horas. Ao avaliar o amostra total, 51,8% dos pacientes eram do sexo masculino, com média de idade de 63,4 11,0 anos, IMC indicativo de sobrepeso (28,8 5,4 kg/m2) e filtração glomerular estimada (FGe) de 32,6 12,2 mL/mim/1,73m2. As características iniciais não diferiram entre os Grupos Intervenção e Controle. Ambos os grupos apresentaram melhora dos parâmetros laboratoriais e antropometricos, com redução significante da uréia plasmática e da glicemia no Grupo Controle (P < 0,05 vs início do estudo) e do IMC em ambos os grupos (P < 0,05 vs início do estudo). Após o período de acompanhamento, o Grupo Intervenção e o Grupo Controle apresentaram ingestão proteica significantemente diferente (0,62 0,2 vs 0,77 0,26 g/kg/dia, respectivamente). A ingestão de sódio não mudou de forma significante em ambos os grupos no inicio e término do acompanhamento. A Adesão à ingestão proteica foi observada em 74,4% do Grupo Intervenção e em 47,8% do Grupo Controle (P < 0,05). A análise de regressão logística multivariada revelou que pertencer ao Grupo Intervenção e sexo masculino se associaram com a Adesão (P <0,05), mesmo após corrigir para outras variáveis testadas. Com base nos achados desse estudo, pode-se concluir que o programa de educação nutricional foi uma ferramenta eficaz no tratamento dietoterápico do paciente com DRC na pré-diálise, pois promoveu melhora na adesão à dieta hipoproteica, além de ter promovido melhora dos parâmetros antropométricos e laboratoriais.