Importance of resolution and model configuration when downscaling extreme precipitation

Dynamical downscaling is frequently used to investigate the dynamical variables of extra-tropical cyclones, for example, precipitation, using very high-resolution models nested within coarser resolution models to understand the processes that lead to intense precipitation. It is also used in climate change studies, using long timeseries to investigate trends in precipitation, or to look at the small-scale dynamical processes for specific case studies. This study investigates some of the problems associated with dynamical downscaling and looks at the optimum configuration to obtain the distribution and intensity of a precipitation field to match observations. This study uses the Met Office Unified Model run in limited area mode with grid spacings of 12, 4 and 1.5 km, driven by boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF Operational Analysis to produce high-resolution simulations for the Summer of 2007 UK flooding events. The numerical weather prediction model is initiated at varying times before the peak precipitation is observed to test the importance of the initialisation and boundary conditions, and how long the simulation can be run for. The results are compared to raingauge data as verification and show that the model intensities are most similar to observations when the model is initialised 12 hours before the peak precipitation is observed. It was also shown that using non-gridded datasets makes verification more difficult, with the density of observations also affecting the intensities observed. It is concluded that the simulations are able to produce realistic precipitation intensities when driven by the coarser resolution data.

The effect of model configuration on modelled hillslope–riparian interactions

The transfer of hillslope water to and through the riparian zone forms a research area of importance in hydrological investigations. Numerical modelling schemes offer a way to visualise and quantify first-order controls on catchment runoff response and mixing. We use a two-dimensional Finite Element model to assess the link between model setup decisions (e.g. zero-flux boundary definitions, soil algorithm choice) and the consequential hydrological process behaviour. A detailed understanding of the consequences of model configuration is required in order to produce reliable estimates of state variables. We demonstrate that model configuration decisions can determine effectively the presence or absence of particular hillslope flow processes and, the magnitude and direction of flux at the hillslope–riparian interface. If these consequences are not fully explored for any given scheme and application, the resulting process inference may well be misleading.

Model Configuration And Data Management In The Short-Term Water Information Forecasting Tools

The Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools (SWIFT) is a suite of tools for flood and short-term streamflow forecasting, consisting of a collection of hydrologic model components and utilities. Catchments are modeled using conceptual subareas and a node-link structure for channel routing. The tools comprise modules for calibration, model state updating, output error correction, ensemble runs and data assimilation. Given the combinatorial nature of the modelling experiments and the sub-daily time steps typically used for simulations, the volume of model configurations and time series data is substantial and its management is not trivial. SWIFT is currently used mostly for research purposes but has also been used operationally, with intersecting but significantly different requirements. Early versions of SWIFT used mostly ad-hoc text files handled via Fortran code, with limited use of netCDF for time series data. The configuration and data handling modules have since been redesigned. The model configuration now follows a design where the data model is decoupled from the on-disk persistence mechanism. For research purposes the preferred on-disk format is JSON, to leverage numerous software libraries in a variety of languages, while retaining the legacy option of custom tab-separated text formats when it is a preferred access arrangement for the researcher. By decoupling data model and data persistence, it is much easier to interchangeably use for instance relational databases to provide stricter provenance and audit trail capabilities in an operational flood forecasting context. For the time series data, given the volume and required throughput, text based formats are usually inadequate. A schema derived from CF conventions has been designed to efficiently handle time series for SWIFT.

Towards an understanding of model driven process configuration and its support at large

The common presupposition of Enterprise Systems (ES) is that they lead to significant efficiency gains. However, this is only the case for well-implemented ES that meet organisational requirements. The list of major ES implementation failures is as long as the list of success stories. We argue here that this arises from a more fundamental problem, the functionalist approach to ES development and provision. As long as vendors will continue to develop generic, difficult-to-adapt ES packages, this problem will prevail because organisations have a non-generic character. A solution to this problem can only consist in rethinking the way ES packages are provided. We propose a strict abstraction layer of ES functionalities and their representation as conceptual models. ES vendors must provide sufficient means for configuring these conceptual models. We discuss in this paper what generic situations can occur during process model configuration in order to understand process model configuration in depth.

From conceptual process models to running systems: A holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise system processes

This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of enterprise system implementations. First, we argue that existing process modeling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we argue that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the enabling mechanisms. We introduce a business example using SAP modeling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

From conceptual process models to running workflows : a holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise systems

The configuration of comprehensive Enterprise Systems to meet the specific requirements of an organisation up to today is consuming significant resources. The results of failing implementation projects are severe and may even threaten the organisation’s existence. This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of Enterprise Systems implementations. First, we argue that existing process modelling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it necessary to integrate them. We describe how to do this using the meta models of the involved languages. Second, we motivate that an integrated process model based on the integrated meta model needs to be configurable and elaborate on the mechanisms by which this model configuration can be achieved. We introduce a business example using SAP modelling techniques to illustrate the proposed method.

The impact of two coupled cirrus microphysics-radiation parameterizations on the temperature and specific humidity biases in the tropical tropopause layer in a climate model

The impact of two different coupled cirrus microphysics-radiation parameterizations on the zonally averaged temperature and humidity biases in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) of a Met Office climate model configuration is assessed. One parameterization is based on a linear coupling between a model prognostic variable, the ice mass mixing ratio, qi, and the integral optical properties. The second is based on the integral optical properties being parameterized as functions of qi and temperature, Tc, where the mass coefficients (i.e. scattering and extinction) are parameterized as nonlinear functions of the ratio between qi and Tc. The cirrus microphysics parameterization is based on a moment estimation parameterization of the particle size distribution (PSD), which relates the mass moment (i.e. second moment if mass is proportional to size raised to the power of 2 ) of the PSD to all other PSD moments through the magnitude of the second moment and Tc. This same microphysics PSD parameterization is applied to calculate the integral optical properties used in both radiation parameterizations and, thus, ensures PSD and mass consistency between the cirrus microphysics and radiation schemes. In this paper, the temperature-non-dependent and temperature-dependent parameterizations are shown to increase and decrease the zonally averaged temperature biases in the TTL by about 1 K, respectively. The temperature-dependent radiation parameterization is further demonstrated to have a positive impact on the specific humidity biases in the TTL, as well as decreasing the shortwave and longwave biases in the cloudy radiative effect. The temperature-dependent radiation parameterization is shown to be more consistent with TTL and global radiation observations.

Study of a wind-wave numerical model and its integration with ocean and oil-spill numerical models

The ability to represent the transport and fate of an oil slick at the sea surface is a formidable task. By using an accurate numerical representation of oil evolution and movement in seawater, the possibility to asses and reduce the oil-spill pollution risk can be greatly improved. The blowing of the wind on the sea surface generates ocean waves, which give rise to transport of pollutants by wave-induced velocities that are known as Stokes’ Drift velocities. The Stokes’ Drift transport associated to a random gravity wave field is a function of the wave Energy Spectra that statistically fully describe it and that can be provided by a wave numerical model. Therefore, in order to perform an accurate numerical simulation of the oil motion in seawater, a coupling of the oil-spill model with a wave forecasting model is needed. In this Thesis work, the coupling of the MEDSLIK-II oil-spill numerical model with the SWAN wind-wave numerical model has been performed and tested. In order to improve the knowledge of the wind-wave model and its numerical performances, a preliminary sensitivity study to different SWAN model configuration has been carried out. The SWAN model results have been compared with the ISPRA directional buoys located at Venezia, Ancona and Monopoli and the best model settings have been detected. Then, high resolution currents provided by a relocatable model (SURF) have been used to force both the wave and the oil-spill models and its coupling with the SWAN model has been tested. The trajectories of four drifters have been simulated by using JONSWAP parametric spectra or SWAN directional-frequency energy output spectra and results have been compared with the real paths traveled by the drifters.

Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes

The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from similar to 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Business process extensibility

Vendors provide reference process models as consolidated, off-the-shelf solutions to capture best practices in a given industry domain. Customers can then adapt these models to suit their specific requirements. Traditional process flexibility approaches facilitate this operation, but do not fully address it as they do not sufficiently take controlled change guided by vendors’ reference models into account. This tension between the customer’s freedom of adapting reference models, and the ability to incorporate with relatively low effort vendor-initiated reference model changes, thus needs to be carefully balanced. This paper introduces process extensibility as a new paradigm for customising reference processes and managing their evolution over time. Process extensibility mandates a clear recognition of the different responsibilities and interests of reference model vendors and consumers, and is concerned with keeping the effort of customer-side reference model adaptations low while allowing sufficient room for model change.

Numerical Modelling of the Observed Diurnal Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

Electron-scale electrostatic solitary waves and shocks: the role of superthermal electrons

The propagation of electron-acoustic solitary waves and shock structures is investigated in a plasma characterized by a superthermal electron population. A three-component plasma model configuration is employed, consisting of inertial (“cold”) electrons, inertialess ? (kappa) distributed superthermal (“hot”) electrons and stationary ions. A multiscale method is employed, leading to a Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation for the electrostatic potential (in the absence of dissipation). Taking into account dissipation, a hybrid Korteweg-de Vries-Burgers (KdVB) equation is derived. Exact negative-potential pulse- and kink-shaped solutions (shocks) are obtained. The relative strength among dispersion, nonlinearity and damping coefficients is discussed. Excitations formed in superthermal plasma (finite ?) are narrower and steeper, compared to the Maxwellian case (infinite ?). A series of numerical simulations confirms that energy initially stored in a solitary pulse which propagates in a stable manner for large ? (Maxwellian plasma) may break down to smaller structures or/and to random oscillations, when it encounters a small-? (nonthermal) region. On the other hand, shock structures used as initial conditions for numerical simulations were shown to be robust, essentially responding to changed in the environment by a simple profile change (in width).

Experimental validation of a drive-by stiffness identification method for bridge monitoring

An experimental investigation is carried out to verify the feasibility of using an instrumented vehicle to detect and monitor bridge dynamic parameters. The low-cost method consists of the use of a moving vehicle fitted with accelerometers on its axles. In the laboratory experiment, the vehicle–bridge interaction model consists of a scaled two-axle vehicle model crossing a simply supported steel beam. The bridge model also includes a scaled road surface profile. The effects of varying the vehicle model configuration and speed are investigated. A finite element beam model is calibrated using the experimental results, and a novel algorithm for the identification of global bridge stiffness is validated. Using measured vehicle accelerations as input to the algorithm, the beam stiffness is identified with a reasonable degree of accuracy.