Owner-driven decision support in holding-specific forest planning

Socio-economic and demographic changes among family forest owners and demands for versatile forestry decision aid motivated this study, which sought grounds for owner-driven forest planning. Finnish family forest owners’ forest-related decision making was analyzed in two interview-based qualitative studies, the main findings of which were surveyed quantitatively. Thereafter, a scheme for adaptively mixing methods in individually tailored decision support processes was constructed. The first study assessed owners’ decision-making strategies by examining varying levels of the sharing of decision-making power and the desire to learn. Five decision-making modes – trusting, learning, managing, pondering, and decisive – were discerned and discussed against conformable decision-aid approaches. The second study conceptualized smooth communication and assessed emotional, practical, and institutional boosters of and barriers to such smoothness in communicative decision support. The results emphasize the roles of trust, comprehension, and contextual services in owners’ communicative decision making. In the third study, a questionnaire tool to measure owners’ attitudes towards communicative planning was constructed by using trusting, learning, and decisive dimensions. Through a multivariate analysis of survey data, three owner groups were identified as fusions of the original decision-making modes: trusting learners (53%), decisive learners (27%), and decisive managers (20%). Differently weighted communicative services are recommended for these compound wishes. The findings of the studies above were synthesized in a form of adaptive decision analysis (ADA), which allows and encourages the decision-maker (owner) to make deliberate choices concerning the phases of a decision aid (planning) process. The ADA model relies on adaptability and feedback management, which foster smooth communication with the owner and (inter-)organizational learning of the planning institution(s). The summarized results indicate that recognizing the communication-related amenity values of family forest owners may be crucial in developing planning and extension services. It is therefore recommended that owners, root-level planners, consultation professionals, and pragmatic researchers collaboratively continue to seek stable change.

Suunnittelunäkemys metsäorganisaatioissa ja sen vaikutus tietojärjestelmälle asetettaviin vaatimuksiin

Department of Forest Resource Management in the University of Helsinki has in years 2004?2007 carried out so-called SIMO -project to develop a new generation planning system for forest management. Project parties are organisations doing most of Finnish forest planning in government, industry and private owned forests. Aim of this study was to find out the needs and requirements for new forest planning system and to clarify how parties see targets and processes in today's forest planning. Representatives responsible for forest planning in each organisation were interviewed one by one. According to study the stand-based system for managing and treating forests continues in the future. Because of variable data acquisition methods with different accuracy and sources, and development of single tree interpretation, more and more forest data is collected without field work. The benefits of using more specific forest data also calls for use of information units smaller than tree stand. In Finland the traditional way to arrange forest planning computation is divided in two elements. After updating the forest data to present situation every stand unit's growth is simulated with different alternative treatment schedule. After simulation, optimisation selects for every stand one treatment schedule so that the management program satisfies the owner's goals in the best possible way. This arrangement will be maintained in the future system. The parties' requirements to add multi-criteria problem solving, group decision support methods as well as heuristic and spatial optimisation into system make the programming work more challenging. Generally the new system is expected to be adjustable and transparent. Strict documentation and free source code helps to bring these expectations into effect. Variable growing models and treatment schedules with different source information, accuracy, methods and the speed of processing are supposed to work easily in system. Also possibilities to calibrate models regionally and to set local parameters changing in time are required. In future the forest planning system will be integrated in comprehensive data management systems together with geographic, economic and work supervision information. This requires a modular method of implementing the system and the use of a simple data transmission interface between modules and together with other systems. No major differences in parties' view of the systems requirements were noticed in this study. Rather the interviews completed the full picture from slightly different angles. In organisation the forest management is considered quite inflexible and it only draws the strategic lines. It does not yet have a role in operative activity, although the need and benefits of team level forest planning are admitted. Demands and opportunities of variable forest data, new planning goals and development of information technology are known. Party organisations want to keep on track with development. One example is the engagement in extensive SIMO-project which connects the whole field of forest planning in Finland.

Internet- ja postikysely osallistavan suunnittelun menetelmänä Puijon metsäsuunnitteluprosessissa

Osallistavan suunnittelun määrä Suomessa on viime vuosina kasvanut huomattavasti. Asukaskyselyt ovat yksi tapa osallistaa asukkaita, ja ne sopivat erityisesti suuren yleisön osallistamiseen. Internetissä toteutetut asukaskyselyt nopeuttaisivat ja helpottaisivat asukaskyselyiden tekemistä mm. siksi, että tieto voidaan tallentaa suoraan sähköiseen muotoon. Internetin käyttö asukaskyselyiden tekemisessä on kuitenkin uusi menetelmä, josta on vasta vähän tutkimustietoa. Ongelmallista Internet-kyselyissä on se, että kasvaneista käyttäjämääristä huolimatta kaikilla ei edelleenkään ole mahdollisuutta käyttää Internetiä. Lisäksi Internet-kyselyn otos on yleensä valikoitunut ja otoskoon määritteleminen on hankalaa. Tutkielma toteutettiin osana Kuopion kaupungin Puijon alueen vuorovaikutteista suunnitteluprosessia. Tutkielman tavoitteena oli vertailla Internet-kyselyä postikyselyyn, jotta saataisiin selville, onko Internet-kysely kelvollinen osallistamismenetelmä. Lisäksi tavoitteena oli profiloida vastaajia mielipiteiden ja taustamuuttujien perusteella. Tutkielman aineistona oli Kuopiossa tammikuussa 2009 toteutetun, Puijon aluetta koskevan asukaskyselyn tulokset. Aineiston analysointiin käytettiin faktorianalyysia, klusterianalyysia, erotteluanalyysia ja korrespondenssianalyysia. Katoa tutkittiin ?2-testillä ja laskemalla ristitulosuhteet. Sekä Internet- että postikyselyn vastaajista muodostuivat Tyytymättömien, Tyytyväisten ja Luonnonsuojelijoiden vastaajaryhmät, joilla olivat melko samanlaiset mielipiteet ja taustamuuttujat molemmissa aineistoissa. Tyytymättömät olivat tyytymättömiä Puijon alueen nykytilaan eivätkä arvostaneet Puijoa. Myös Luonnonsuojelijat olivat tyytymättömiä Puijon alueen ja metsien nykyiseen hoitoon, mutta eivät kannattaneet metsänhoitoa. Tyytyväisten mielestä Puijon alueella kaikki on nyt kunnossa. Lisäksi postikyselyn aineistosta muodostui Kehittäjät-ryhmä ja Internet-kyselyn vastaajista Virkistäytyjät-ryhmä. Internet-kyselyssä 46–60-vuotiaat ja korkeakoulutetut olivat yliedustettuina, mutta kummallakaan kyselyllä ei saatu edustavaa otosta kuopiolaisista. Katoa oli paljon. Edes keskustelua herättänyt aihe ei riittänyt aktivoimaan kuopiolaisia vastaamaan kyselyyn ja tutkielmassa käytettyjen tutkimusmenetelmien kannalta kyselylomake oli puutteellinen. Tämän tutkielman tuloksista saatiin lopulta lähinnä suuntaviivoja Puijon suunnitelmaehdotuksille. Kunnissa tarvitaan uusia työkaluja osallistamiseen, ja tähän tarpeeseen Internet-kysely olisi kustannustehokas vastaus. Sen vuoksi Internet-kyselyä kannattaa edelleen tutkia ja kehittää. Internet-kyselyllä olisi mahdollista saada edustavampi otos, jos vastaajat valittaisiin satunnaisotannalla ja he saisivat salasanan kyselyyn. Myös kaikille avoimella kyselyllä voitaisiin kartoittaa mielipiteitä, kunhan tuloksia tulkittaisiin kriittisesti.

Non-industrial private forest landowners’ choices of timber management strategies.

The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.

A participatory approach to tactical forest planning.

The paper examines the needs, premises and criteria for effective public participation in tactical forest planning. A method for participatory forest planning utilizing the techniques of preference analysis, professional expertise and heuristic optimization is introduced. The techniques do not cover the whole process of participatory planning, but are applied as a tool constituting the numerical core for decision support. The complexity of multi-resource management is addressed by hierarchical decision analysis which assesses the public values, preferences and decision criteria toward the planning situation. An optimal management plan is sought using heuristic optimization. The plan can further be improved through mutual negotiations, if necessary. The use of the approach is demonstrated with an illustrative example, it's merits and challenges for participatory forest planning and decision making are discussed and a model for applying it in general forest planning context is depicted. By using the approach, valuable information can be obtained about public preferences and the effects of taking them into consideration on the choice of the combination of standwise treatment proposals for a forest area. Participatory forest planning calculations, carried out by the approach presented in the paper, can be utilized in conflict management and in developing compromises between competing interests.

Private and municipal forests and the forestry planning system in Japan - trends and problems after World War II.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.