Bayesian imputation of non-chosen attribute values in revealed preference surveys

Obtaining attribute values of non-chosen alternatives in a revealed preference context is challenging because non-chosen alternative attributes are unobserved by choosers, chooser perceptions of attribute values may not reflect reality, existing methods for imputing these values suffer from shortcomings, and obtaining non-chosen attribute values is resource intensive. This paper presents a unique Bayesian (multiple) Imputation Multinomial Logit model that imputes unobserved travel times and distances of non-chosen travel modes based on random draws from the conditional posterior distribution of missing values. The calibrated Bayesian (multiple) Imputation Multinomial Logit model imputes non-chosen time and distance values that convincingly replicate observed choice behavior. Although network skims were used for calibration, more realistic data such as supplemental geographically referenced surveys or stated preference data may be preferred. The model is ideally suited for imputing variation in intrazonal non-chosen mode attributes and for assessing the marginal impacts of travel policies, programs, or prices within traffic analysis zones.

Modeling the Links between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing in the Context of Climate Change: Results from an Econometric Analysis on the European Forest Ecosystems

25 p.

Comparative Study of Informal Health Care Networks and Elderly Health Status in Argentina and Cuba

The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of informal care support networks on the health status, life satisfaction, happiness and anxiety of elderly individuals in Argentina and Cuba. Recent economic changes, demographic changes, the structure of families and changes in women?s labor participation have affected the availability of informal care. Additionally, the growing number of elderly as a percentage of total population has significant implications for both formal and informal care in Argentina and Cuba. Methods: The SABE - Survey on Health, Well-Being, and Aging in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2000 was used as the data source. The survey has a sample of 10,656 individuals aged 60 years and older residing in private households occupied by permanent dwellers in 7 cities in the Latin American and Caribbean region. My study will focus on the Buenos Aires and Havana samples in which there were 1043 individuals and 1905 individuals respectively. General sampling design was used to establish comparability between countries. Individuals requiring assistance are surveyed on their source of help and the relative impact of informal versus paid help is measured for this group. Other measures of social support (number of living children, companionship and number of individuals living in the same dwelling) are used to measure networks for the full sample. Multivariate probit regression analyses were run separately for Cuba and for Argentina to evaluate the marginal impacts of the types of social support on health status, life satisfaction, happiness and anxiety. Results: For Argentina, almost all of the family help variables positively impact good health. Getting help from most other members of the family negatively impacts satisfaction with life. Happiness is affected differently by each of the family help variables but community support increases the likelihood of being happy. Although none of the family or community help variables show statistical significance, most negatively affect anxiety levels. In Cuba, all of the social support variables have a positive marginal impact on the health status of the elderly. In this case, some of the family and community help variables have a negative marginal impact on life satisfaction; however, it appears that having those closest to the elderly, children, spouse, or other family, positively impacts life satisfaction. Most of the support variables negatively impact happiness. Receiving help from a child, spouse or parent is associated with a marginal increase in anxiety, whereas receiving help from a grandchild, another family member or a friend actually reduces anxiety. Discussion: The study highlights the necessity for enhancing the coordination of various care networks in order to provide adequate care and reduce the burdens of old age on the individual, family and society and the need for consistent support for the caregivers. More qualitative work should be done to identify how support is given and what comprises the support. The constant change and advancement of the world, and the growth of the Latin American and Caribbean region, suggests that more updates studies need to be done.

Portfolio selection under higher moments using fuzzy multi-objective linear programming

Since asset returns have been recognized as not normally distributed, the avenue of research regarding portfolio higher moments soon emerged. To account for uncertainty and vagueness of portfolio returns as well as of higher moment risks, we proposed a new portfolio selection model employing fuzzy sets in this paper. A fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) for portfolio optimization is formulated using marginal impacts of assets on portfolio higher moments, which are modelled by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Through a consistent centroid-based ranking of fuzzy numbers, the fuzzy MOLP is transformed into an MOLP that is then solved by the maximin method. By taking portfolio higher moments into account, the approach enables investors to optimize not only the normal risk (variance) but also the asymmetric risk (skewness) and the risk of fat-tails (kurtosis). An illustrative example demonstrates the efficiency of the proposed methodology comparing to previous portfolio optimization models.

Proceedings of the 1998 Science Board Symposium on The Impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño Event on the North Pacific Ocean and Its Marginal Seas

Preface [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James J. O'Brien The big picture - The ENSO of 1997-98 [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James E. Overland, Nicholas A. Bond & Jennifer Miletta Adams Atmospheric anomalies in 1997: Links to ENSO? [pdf, 0.54 Mb] Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Olga Trusenkova, Serge Trousenkov, Dmitry Kaplunenko, Elena Ustinova & Antonina Polyakova The ENSO signal in the northwest Pacific [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Robert L. Smith, A. Huyer, P.M. Kosro & J.A. Barth Observations of El Niño off Oregon: July 1997 to present (October 1998) [pdf, 1.31 Mb] Patrica A. Wheeler & Jon Hill Biological effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño event off Oregon: Nutrient and chlorophyll distributions [pdf, 1.13 Mb] William T. Peterson Hydrography and zooplankton off the central Oregon coast during the 1997-1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.26 Mb] William Crawford, Josef Cherniawsky, Michael Foreman & Peter Chandler El Niño sea level signal along the west coast of Canada [pdf, 1.25 Mb] Howard J. Freeland & Rick Thomson The El Niño signal along the west coast of Canada - temperature, salinity and velocity [pdf, 0.49 Mb] Frank A. Whitney, David L. Mackas, David W. Welch & Marie Robert Impact of the 1990s El Niños on nutrient supply and productivity of Gulf of Alaska waters [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Craig McNeil, David Farmer & Mark Trevorrow Dissolved gas measurements at Stn. P4 during the 97-98 El Niño [pdf, 0.13 Mb] Kristen L.D. Milligan, Colin D. Levings & Robert E. DeWreede Data compilation and preliminary time series analysis of abundance of a dominant intertidal kelp species in relation to the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.05 Mb] S.M. McKinnell, C.C. Wood, M. Lapointe, J.C. Woodey, K.E. Kostow, J. Nelson & K.D. Hyatt Reviewing the evidence that adult sockeye salmon strayed from the Fraser River and spawned in other rivers in 1997 [pdf,0.03 Mb] G.A. McFarlane & R.J. Beamish Sardines return to British Columbia waters [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Ken H. Morgan Impact of the 1997/98 El Niño on seabirds of the northeast Pacific [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Thomas C. Royer & Thomas Weingartner Coastal hydrographic responses in the northern Gulf of Alaska to the 1997-98 ENSO event [pdf, 0.76 Mb] John F. Piatt, Gary Drew, Thomas Van Pelt, Alisa Abookire, April Nielsen, Mike Shultz & Alexander Kitaysky Biological effects of the 1997/98 ENSO in Cook Inlet, Alaska [pdf, 0.22 Mb] H.J. Niebauer The 1997-98 El Niño in the Bering Sea as compared with previous ENSO events and the "regime shift" of the late 1970s [pdf, 0.10 Mb] A.S. Krovnin, G.P. Nanyushin, M.Yu. Kruzhalov, G.V. Khen, M.A. Bogdanov, E.I. Ustinova, V.V. Maslennikov, A.M. Orlov, B.N. Kotenev, V.V. Bulanov & G.P. Muriy The state of the Far East seas during the 1997/98 El Niño event [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Stacy Smith & Susan Henrichs Phytoplankton collected by a time-series sediment trap deployed in the southeast Bering Sea during 1997 [pdf, 0.21 Mb] Cynthia T. Tynan Redistributions of cetaceans in the southeast Bering Sea relative to anomalous oceanographic conditions during the 1997 El Niño [pdf, 0.02 Mb] Akihiko Yatsu, Junta Mori, Hiroyuki Tanaka, Tomowo Watanabe, Kazuya Nagasawa, Yikimasa Ishida, Toshimi Meguro, Yoshihiko Kamei & Yasunori Sakurai Stock abundance and size compositions of the neon flying squid in the central North Pacific Ocean during 1979-1998 [pdf, 0.11 Mb] O.B. Feschenko A new point of view concerning the El Niño mechanism [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Nathan Mantua 97/98 Ocean climate variability in the northeast Pacific: How much blame does El Niño deserve? [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Vadim P. Pavlychev Sharp changes of hydrometeorological conditions in the northwestern Pacific during the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Jingyi Wang Predictability and forecast verification of El Niño events [pdf, 0.01 Mb] (Document contains 110 pages)

Long-term impacts of harvest residue management on nutrition, growth and productivity of an exotic pine plantation of sub-tropical Australia

Residue retention is an important issue in evaluating the sustainability of production forestry. However, its long-term impacts have not been studied extensively, especially in sub-tropical environments. This study investigated the long-term impact of harvest residue retention on tree nutrition, growth and productivity of a F1 hybrid (Pinus elliottii var. elliottii × Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis) exotic pine plantation in sub-tropical Australia, under three harvest residue management regimes: (1) residue removal, RR0; (2) single residue retention, RR1; and (3) double residue retention, RR2. The experiment, established in 1996, is a randomised complete block design with 4 replicates. Tree growth measurements in this study were carried out at ages 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 years, while foliar nutrient analyses were carried out at ages 2, 4, 6 and 10 years. Litter production and litter nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) measurements were carried out quarterly over a 15-month period between ages 9 and 10 years. Results showed that total tree growth was still greater in residue-retained treatments compared to the RR0 treatment. However, mean annual increments of diameter at breast height (MAID) and basal area (MAIB) declined significantly after age 4 years to about 68-78% at age 10 years. Declining foliar N and P concentrations accounted for 62% (p < 0.05) of the variation of growth rates after age 4 years, and foliar N and P concentrations were either marginal or below critical concentrations. In addition, litter production, and litter N and P contents were not significantly different among the treatments. This study suggests that the impact of residue retention on tree nutrition and growth rates might be limited over a longer period, and that the integration of alternative forest management practices is necessary to sustain the benefits of harvest residues until the end of the rotation.

Resin defect impacts on the value of graded recovery and evaluation of technologies for internal defect detection in slash pine logs.

The key outcome will be to identify a technology that is practical to use to scan logs identified by the modelling as suspect or marginal for sawing and to confirm their unsuitability for value adding sawing by internal scanning.

The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

Characterization of toxic impacts on living marine resources in tidal rivers of the Chesapeake Bay

In 1999, the Chesapeake Bay Program completed a survey of existing data on chemical contaminants and the potential for bioeffects in 38 tidal river systems of Chesapeake Bay. This review led to the identification of 20 areas for which there were insufficient data to adequately characterize the potential for contaminant bioeffects on the Bay’s living resources. The goal of the present study was to estimate the current status of ecological condition in five of these areas and thus help to complete the overall toxics inventory for the Bay. These five systems included the Chester River, Nanticoke River, Pocomoke River, Lower Mobjack Bay (Poquosin and Back Rivers) and the South and Rhode Rivers. This study utilized a Sediment Quality Triad (SQT) approach in combination with additional water-column contaminant analysis to allow for a “weight of evidence” assessment of environmental condition. A total of 60 stations distributed among the five systems, using a probabilistic stratified random design, were sampled during the summer of 2004 to allow for synoptic measures of sediment contamination, sediment toxicity, and benthic condition. Upon completion of all analyses, stations were assigned to one of four categories based on the three legs of the triad. Stations with high sediment quality had no hits on any of the three legs of the triad; those with moderate quality had one hit; those with marginal quality had two hits; and those with poor quality had hits for all three legs of the triad. The Pocomoke River had by far the largest proportion of the total area (97.5%) classified as having high sediment quality, while the Rhode/South system had the highest proportion (11.4%) classified as poor. None of the stations in the Chester River, Nanticoke River, and Lower Mobjack Bay systems were classified as poor. More than 65% of the area of each of the five systems was classified with high to moderate sediment quality. The Rhode/South system had 30.4% of total area classified with marginally to severely poor quality. The results of this study highlight the importance of using multiple indicators and a “weight of evidence” approach to characterize environmental quality and the potential bioeffects of toxic contaminants.

Marginal Activity Access Cost (MAAC): a new indicator for sustainable Land Use/Transport (LUT) planning

The paper presents the ‘Marginal Activity Access Cost’, an accessibility indicator providing estimation in monetary terms of the impacts on mobility and on the environment of locating a single new activity in a specific zone of the urban area. In the first part of this paper, the new indicator is presented and compared to other accessibility indicators proposed in literature. In the second part, the MAAC is validated through an application to the urban area of Rome. The paper concludes with brief remarks on using the proposed accessibility indicator as index of performance for sustainable spatial planning.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Impacts of Climate variability on Agriculture in Kerala

The study revealed that southwest monsoon rainfall in Kerala has been declining while increasing in post monsoon season. The annual rainfall exhibits a cyclic trend of 40-60 years, with a significant decline in recent decades. The intensity of climatological droughts was increasing across the State of Kerala through it falls under heavy rainfall zone due to unimodal rainfall pattern. The moisture index across the State of Kerala was moving from B4 to B3 humid, indicating that the State was moving from wetness to dryness within the humid climate.The study confirms that a warming Kerala is real as maximum, minimum and mean temperatures and temperature ranges are increasing. The rate of increase in maximum temperature was high (1.46°C) across the high ranges, followed by the coastal belt (1.09°C) of Kerala while the rate of increase was relatively marginal (0.25°C) across the midlands. The rate of increase in temperature across the high ranges is probably high because of deforestation. It indicates that the highranges and coastal belts in Kerala are vulnerable to global warming and climate change when compared to midlands.Interestingly, the trend in annual rainfall is increasing at Pampadumpara (Idukki), while declining at Ambalavayal across the highranges. In the case of maximum temperature, it was showing increasing trend at Pampadumpara while declining trend at Ambalavayal. In the case of minimum temperature it is declining at Pampadumpara while increasing in Ambalavalal.The paddy productivity in Kerala during kharif / virippu is unlikely to decline due to increasing temperature on the basis of long term climate change, but likely to decline to a considerable extent due to prolonged monsoon season, followed by unusual summer rains as noticed in 2007-08 and 2010-11.All the plantation crops under study are vulnerable to climate variability such as floods and droughts rather than long term changes in temperature and rainfall.

Quantifying the potential impacts of increasing agricultural fragmentation on land value

Societal expectations from rural lands have traditionally focused on the production of food and fibre. Yet the perception of rural areas is changing and they are now seen in many instances to be capable of delivering multiple functions or non‐commodity outputs including land conservation and the preservation of biodiversity, contributing to the sustainable management of renewable natural resources and enhancing the socio‐economic viability of many areas . The overall multi‐functionality is constrained or favoured by biophysical and socio‐economic drivers. As these types of drivers vary spatially and temporally, so does the functionality of the landscape and heterogeneous patterns emerge. Associated with multiple functions at a single location are a variety of pressures which can manifest themselves as conflict between interacting land uses. One such conflict in rural zones is that between agricultural use and residential use. Warrnambool City Council (WCC) is a Local Government Area (LGA) in southwest Victoria where the debate surrounding the best use of rural land is currently being debated. In a region where agriculture has historically been the mainstay of the economy there is some resistance to unplanned conversion to residential use. Despite concerns and much strategy being discussed it appears an investigation quantifying the impacts of these conversions is yet to be done. This paper addresses the issue of the allocation of land by using GIS mapping to incorporate economic, social and environmental attributes, and applying a theoretical economic framework for the optimal allocation of land to the comprehensive data set. Marginal values of land for competing purposes are estimated and discussed. The method is relevant for other regions where the rural/residential interface and associated planning decisions are highly topical.

Impacts of solar lanterns in geographically challenged locations : experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Despite continuous efforts to improve the coverage, the access to electricity remains insufficient in many developing countries, particularly in geographically challenged locations, due mostly to the high cost of grid extension. To rigorously investigate the effectiveness of solar products as an alternative in remote areas, we conducted a randomized controlled trial in river islands of northern Bangladesh where no grid-based electricity is available. We found that solar lanterns significantly increased home study hours among schooled children, especially in the night and before exams. School attendance rate also initially increases due to the provision of solar lamps, although such effects fade away over time. The increased study time and initial school attendance rate, however, did not improve children's exam results. We also found marginal improvements on health-related indicators, such as eye redness and irritation, but negligible impacts on respiratory indicators. Households that received solar lanterns substituted the traditional lighting sources with modern technology, leading to a significant decrease in annual biomass fuel consumptions, particularly kerosene. Finally, treated households showed a greater self-reported willingness to purchase solar products compared with the control group.

Lessons from the past: Evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions

Mass extinctions have played many evolutionary roles, involving differential survivorship or selectivity of taxa and traits, the disruption or preservation of evolutionary trends and ecosystem organization, and the promotion of taxonomic and morphological diversifications—often along unexpected trajectories—after the destruction or marginalization of once-dominant clades. The fossil record suggests that survivorship during mass extinctions is not strictly random, but it often fails to coincide with factors promoting survival during times of low extinction intensity. Although of very serious concern, present-day extinctions have not yet achieved the intensities seen in the Big Five mass extinctions of the geologic past, which each removed ≥50% of the subset of relatively abundant marine invertebrate genera. The best comparisons for predictive purposes therefore will involve factors such as differential extinction intensities among regions, clades, and functional groups, rules governing postextinction biotic interchanges and evolutionary dynamics, and analyses of the factors that cause taxa and evolutionary trends to continue unabated, to suffer setbacks but resume along the same trajectory, to survive only to fall into a marginal role or disappear (“dead clade walking”), or to undergo a burst of diversification. These issues need to be addressed in a spatially explicit framework, because the fossil record suggests regional differences in postextinction diversification dynamics and biotic interchanges. Postextinction diversifications lag far behind the initial taxonomic and morphological impoverishment and homogenization; they do not simply reoccupy vacated adaptive peaks, but explore opportunities as opened and constrained by intrinsic biotic factors and the ecological and evolutionary context of the radiation.