Quantifying the potential impacts of increasing agricultural fragmentation on land value

Societal expectations from rural lands have traditionally focused on the production of food and fibre. Yet the perception of rural areas is changing and they are now seen in many instances to be capable of delivering multiple functions or non‐commodity outputs including land conservation and the preservation of biodiversity, contributing to the sustainable management of renewable natural resources and enhancing the socio‐economic viability of many areas . The overall multi‐functionality is constrained or favoured by biophysical and socio‐economic drivers. As these types of drivers vary spatially and temporally, so does the functionality of the landscape and heterogeneous patterns emerge. Associated with multiple functions at a single location are a variety of pressures which can manifest themselves as conflict between interacting land uses. One such conflict in rural zones is that between agricultural use and residential use. Warrnambool City Council (WCC) is a Local Government Area (LGA) in southwest Victoria where the debate surrounding the best use of rural land is currently being debated. In a region where agriculture has historically been the mainstay of the economy there is some resistance to unplanned conversion to residential use. Despite concerns and much strategy being discussed it appears an investigation quantifying the impacts of these conversions is yet to be done. This paper addresses the issue of the allocation of land by using GIS mapping to incorporate economic, social and environmental attributes, and applying a theoretical economic framework for the optimal allocation of land to the comprehensive data set. Marginal values of land for competing purposes are estimated and discussed. The method is relevant for other regions where the rural/residential interface and associated planning decisions are highly topical.<br />