970 resultados para management scenario


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Abstract Background This article aims to discuss the incorporation of traditional time in the construction of a management scenario for pink shrimp in the Patos Lagoon estuary (RS), Brazil. To meet this objective, two procedures have been adopted; one at a conceptual level and another at a methodological level. At the conceptual level, the concept of traditional time as a form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) was adopted. Method At the methodological level, we conduct a wide literature review of the scientific knowledge (SK) that guides recommendations for pink shrimp management by restricting the fishing season in the Patos Lagoon estuary; in addition, we review the ethno-scientific literature which describes traditional calendars as a management base for artisanal fishers in the Patos Lagoon estuary. Results Results demonstrate that TEK and SK describe similar estuarine biological processes, but are incommensurable at a resource management level. On the other hand, the construction of a “management scenario” for pink shrimp is possible through the development of “criteria for hierarchies of validity” which arise from a productive dialog between SK and TEK. Conclusions The commensurable and the incommensurable levels reveal different basis of time-space perceptions between traditional ecological knowledge and scientific knowledge. Despite incommensurability at the management level, it is possible to establish guidelines for the construction of “management scenarios” and to support a co-management process.

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This study answers to How scenario analysis could help acquiring companies to reduce uncertainty in the acquisition process? It is due to the mismatch between academic world’s caveat emptor and business world’s eagerness to pursue acquisitions that motivated this study. Acquisitions are as popular as ever, thus, managing the uncertainty surrounding these transactions is relevant. This study creates a generic theoretical model with a strategy-level scope. Thus, the study does not discuss nor does it seek answers to operational issues related in both fields. This study is explorative and constructivist in nature. It discusses briefly the concepts and relatedness of risk and uncertainty and establishes a hierarchy between these two: Risks being a “sub-section” of uncertainty, although not with clear boundaries. Acquisition theory follows the process view that understands acquisitions as a process with various levels – some strategic, some operational. Scenario analysis is presented as tool for management to enrich their strategic discussion and understand their future options. The empirical data collection is done through interviewing. The results are reflected on literature on strategic management, scenario literature, and on a consultancy’s report picturing firm’s strategies in accordance with their acquisition processes. The study has an abductive approach as it tries to combine multiple views and generates discussion between literature review, interviews, the report, and second round of literature. The model suggests three propositions: First, at the strategic decision making level, when the decision whether or not to pursue an acquisition growth strategy has been made, it provides firms new data and enriches the strategic discussion. Second, when the acquisition strategy has been created, it can be applied as a tool to measure possible acquisition targets against the backdrop of the first set of scenarios. Third, due to the scenario analysis’ requirement to include people with various backgrounds and from multiple levels of the corporate hierarchy, it could help managers to avoid biases stemming from hubris.

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Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

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The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

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Paraserianthes falcataria is a very fast growing, light wood tree species, that has recently gained wide interest in Indonesia for industrial wood processing. At the moment the P. falcataria plantations managed by smallholders are lacking predefined management programmes for commercial wood production. The general objective of this study was to model the growth and yield of Paraserianthes falcataria stands managed by smallholders in Ciamis, West Java, Indonesia and to develop management scenarios for different production objectives. In total 106 circular sample plots with over 2300 P. falcataria trees were assessed on smallholder plantation inventory. In addition, information on market prices of P. falcataria wood was collected through rapid appraisals among industries. A tree growth model based on Chapman-Richards function was developed on three different site qualities and the stand management scenarios were developed under three management objectives: (1) low initial stand density with low intensity stand management, (2) high initial stand density with medium intensity of intervention, (3) high initial stand density and strong intensity of silvicultural interventions, repeated more than once. In general, the 9 recommended scenarios have rotation ages varying from 4 to 12 years, planting densities from 4x4 meters (625 trees ha-1) to 3x2 meters (1666 trees ha-1) and thinnings at intensities of removing 30 to 60 % of the standing trees. The highest annual income would be generated on high-quality with a scenario with initial planting density 3x2 m (1666 trees ha-1) one thinning at intensity of removing 55 % of the standing trees at the age of 2 years and clear cut at the age of 4 years.

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Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) conservation) and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata) conservation). This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options that specify deferment and timing of harvest for large blocks helped ensure the stable presence of an intact mature forest matrix over time. The management scenario that focused on maintaining compositional targets best supported biodiversity objectives by providing the composition patterns required by the 13 focal species, but this scenario may be improved by adding some broad-scale spatial objectives to better maintain large blocks of interior forest habitat through time.

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Systematic Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) authorities of Sri Lanka contributes to exchange some productive outputs with localities; however it is still not in a successful mode due to limitations and environmental failures in their operation. Most of these local administrations are directly dumping Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) to an open dumping site, this manner of inappropriate disposal of MSW is become a major threat to the environment and public health in developing countries like Sri Lanka. This study was conducted for the MSWM practices of Balangoda Urban Council. The research was performed based on analyzing information obtained from field observations; reports; literature; questionnaire distribution among community; and a series of formal interviews with major stakeholders. The ongoing MSWM practices of Balangoda Urban Council encompass six categories as waste minimization and handling; waste collection; on-site separation; waste transportation; further management including grading, composting, recycling, producing sludge fertilizer; and final disposal to an open dump site. Apart from those, training sessions on MSWM are also being conducted. The purpose of this paper is to assess current status of urban waste management scenario and highlight strengths and weaknesses to understand the sustainability of the system which would help any local authority to improve MSWM.

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Health Information Exchange (HIE) is an interesting phenomenon. It is a patient centric health and/or medical information management scenario enhanced by integration of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). While health information systems are repositioning complex system directives, in the wake of the ‘big data’ paradigm, extracting quality information is challenging. It is anticipated that in this talk, ICT enabled healthcare scenarios with big data analytics will be shared. In addition, research and development regarding big data analytics, such as current trends of using these technologies for health care services and critical research challenges when extracting quality of information to improve quality of life will be discussed.

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Cement industry ranks 2nd in energy consumption among the industries in India. It is one of the major emitter of CO2, due to combustion of fossil fuel and calcination process. As the huge amount of CO2 emissions cause severe environment problems, the efficient and effective utilization of energy is a major concern in Indian cement industry. The main objective of the research work is to assess the energy cosumption and energy conservation of the Indian cement industry and to predict future trends in cement production and reduction of CO2 emissions. In order to achieve this objective, a detailed energy and exergy analysis of a typical cement plant in Kerala was carried out. The data on fuel usage, electricity consumption, amount of clinker and cement production were also collected from a few selected cement industries in India for the period 2001 - 2010 and the CO2 emissions were estimated. A complete decomposition method was used for the analysis of change in CO2 emissions during the period 2001 - 2010 by categorising the cement industries according to the specific thermal energy consumption. A basic forecasting model for the cement production trend was developed by using the system dynamic approach and the model was validated with the data collected from the selected cement industries. The cement production and CO2 emissions from the industries were also predicted with the base year as 2010. The sensitivity analysis of the forecasting model was conducted and found satisfactory. The model was then modified for the total cement production in India to predict the cement production and CO2 emissions for the next 21 years under three different scenarios. The parmeters that influence CO2 emissions like population and GDP growth rate, demand of cement and its production, clinker consumption and energy utilization are incorporated in these scenarios. The existing growth rate of the population and cement production in the year 2010 were used in the baseline scenario. In the scenario-1 (S1) the growth rate of population was assumed to be gradually decreasing and finally reach zero by the year 2030, while in scenario-2 (S2) a faster decline in the growth rate was assumed such that zero growth rate is achieved in the year 2020. The mitigation strategiesfor the reduction of CO2 emissions from the cement production were identified and analyzed in the energy management scenarioThe energy and exergy analysis of the raw mill of the cement plant revealed that the exergy utilization was worse than energy utilization. The energy analysis of the kiln system showed that around 38% of heat energy is wasted through exhaust gases of the preheater and cooler of the kiln sysetm. This could be recovered by the waste heat recovery system. A secondary insulation shell was also recommended for the kiln in the plant in order to prevent heat loss and enhance the efficiency of the plant. The decomposition analysis of the change in CO2 emissions during 2001- 2010 showed that the activity effect was the main factor for CO2 emissions for the cement industries since it is directly dependent on economic growth of the country. The forecasting model showed that 15.22% and 29.44% of CO2 emissions reduction can be achieved by the year 2030 in scenario- (S1) and scenario-2 (S2) respectively. In analysing the energy management scenario, it was assumed that 25% of electrical energy supply to the cement plants is replaced by renewable energy. The analysis revealed that the recovery of waste heat and the use of renewable energy could lead to decline in CO2 emissions 7.1% for baseline scenario, 10.9 % in scenario-1 (S1) and 11.16% in scenario-2 (S2) in 2030. The combined scenario considering population stabilization by the year 2020, 25% of contribution from renewable energy sources of the cement industry and 38% thermal energy from the waste heat streams shows that CO2 emissions from Indian cement industry could be reduced by nearly 37% in the year 2030. This would reduce a substantial level of greenhouse gas load to the environment. The cement industry will remain one of the critical sectors for India to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target. India’s cement production will continue to grow in the near future due to its GDP growth. The control of population, improvement in plant efficiency and use of renewable energy are the important options for the mitigation of CO2 emissions from Indian cement industries

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Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire managementscenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

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Práticas em gestão de projetos (GP), apesar de amplamente difundidas, utilizadas e pesquisadas, não garantem o desempenho (sucesso) do projeto em suas entregas em tempo e custos conforme planejamento. Observa-se que, apesar do uso extensivo de práticas de GP, falhas em relação ao atendimento do cronograma e orçamento são amplamente relatadas. Portanto, este trabalho tem como objetivo principal analisar a influência das práticas de gestão de projetos e do objetivo de desempenho no Comportamento de Cidadania Organizacional (OCB) da equipe de projetos. As dimensões que compuseram o OCB foram: Ajuda, Iniciativa e Compliance. Para testar a relação entre os fatores de práticas de GP (incipientes ou avançados) e objetivo de desempenho (normal ou desafiador) no comportamento da equipe foi utilizada a metodologia do experimento baseado em cenários (SBRP experiment). A amostra contou com 216 alunos de graduação e pós-graduação em administração. O estudo mostrou que a utilização de práticas em gestão de projetos não influenciou o Comportamento de Cidadania Organizacional da equipe de projetos. Entretanto, o objetivo de desempenho nas dimensões de tempo e custos influenciou o Comportamento Cidadão da equipe de projetos. Além desses resultados, a pesquisa mostrou que características pessoais, como experiência em liderar projetos, influenciou a propensão em aumento do comportamento cidadão mediante uma remuneração adicional. Como contribuição adicional este estudo mostra que existem diferenças de resultados nos diferentes grupos de respondentes (alunos de graduação e pós-graduação em administração), conforme encontrado em outros estudos. A utilização do experimento também foi um diferencial metodológico, em virtude de sua ainda baixa utilização em gestão de operações. Finalmente, este estudo também identificou as principais práticas utilizadas na gestão de projetos.

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Brazil is a major sugarcane producer and São Paulo State cultivates 5.5 million hectares, close to 50% of Brazil's sugarcane area. The rapid increase in production has brought into question the sustainability of biofuels, especially considering the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated to the agricultural sector. Despite the significant progress towards the green harvest practices, 1.67 million hectares were still burned in São Paulo State during the 2011 harvest season. Here an emissions inventory for the life cycle of sugarcane agricultural production is estimated using IPCC methodologies, according to the agriculture survey data and remote sensing database. Our hypothesis is that 1.67 million hectares shall be converted from burned to green harvest scenarios up to years 2021 (rate 1), 2014 (rate 2) or 2029 (rate 3). Those conversions would represent a significant GHG mitigation, ranging from 50.5 to 70.9 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2eq) up to 2050, depending on the conversion rate and the green harvest systems adopted: conventional (scenario S1) or conservationist management (scenario S2). We show that a green harvest scenario where crop rotation and reduced soil tillage are practiced has a higher mitigation potential (70.9 Mt CO2eq), which is already practiced in some of the sugarcane areas. Here we support the decision to not just stop burning prior to harvest, but also to consider other better practices in sugarcane areas to have a more sustainable sugarcane based ethanol production in the most dense cultivated sugarcane region in Brazil. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CPESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U?Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR_EVOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of scenarios and breakdown of LCOE contributors rather than provision of absolute values, as technological readiness levels are low for most of the advanced fuel cycle stages. The obtained estimations show an increase of LCOE ? averaged over the whole period ? with respect to the reference open cycle scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios. The main contribution to LCOE is the capital costs of new facilities, quantified between 60% and 69% depending on the scenario. An uncertainty analysis is provided around assumed low and high values of processes and technologies.

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Marine ecosystems are facing a diverse range of threats, including climate change, prompting international efforts to safeguard marine biodiversity through the use of spatial management measures. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been implemented as a conservation tool throughout the world, but their usefulness and effectiveness is strongly related to climate change. However, few MPA programmes have directly considered climate change in the design, management or monitoring of an MPA network. Under international obligations, EU, UK and national targets, Scotland has developed an MPA network that aims to protect marine biodiversity and contribute to the vision of a clean, healthy and productive marine environment. This is the first study to critically analyse the Scottish MPA process and highlight areas which may be improved upon in further iterations of the network in the context of climate change. Initially, a critical review of the Scottish MPA process considered how ecological principles for MPA network design were incorporated into the process, how stakeholder perceptions were considered and crucially what consideration was given to the influence of climate change on the eventual effectiveness of the network. The results indicated that to make a meaningful contribution to marine biodiversity protection for Europe the Scottish MPA network should: i) fully adopt best practice ecological principles ii) ensure effective protection and iii) explicitly consider climate change in the management, monitoring and future iterations of the network. However, this review also highlighted the difficulties of incorporating considerations of climate change into an already complex process. A series of international case studies from British Columbia, Canada; central California, USA; the Great Barrier Reef, Australia and the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand, were then conducted to investigate perceptions of how climate change has been considered in the design, implementation, management and monitoring of MPAs. The key lessons from this study included: i) strictly protected marine reserves are considered essential for climate change resilience and will be necessary as scientific reference sites to understand climate change effects ii) adaptive management of MPA networks is important but hard to implement iii) strictly protected reserves managed as ecosystems are the best option for an uncertain future. This work provides new insights into the policy and practical challenges MPA managers face under climate change scenarios. Based on the Scottish and international studies, the need to facilitate clear communication between academics, policy makers and stakeholders was recognised in order to progress MPA policy delivery and to ensure decisions were jointly formed and acceptable. A Delphi technique was used to develop a series of recommendations for considering climate change in Scotland’s MPA process. The Delphi participant panel was selected for their knowledge of the Scottish MPA process and included stakeholders, policy makers and academics with expertise in MPA research. The results from the first round of the Delphi technique suggested that differing views of success would likely influence opinions regarding required management of MPAs, and in turn, the data requirements to support management action decisions. The second round of the Delphi technique explored this further and indicated that there was a fundamental dichotomy in panellists’ views of a successful MPA network depending upon whether they believed the MPAs should be strictly protected or allow for sustainable use. A third, focus group round of the Delphi Technique developed a feature-based management scenario matrix to aid in deciding upon management actions in light of changes occurring in the MPA network. This thesis highlights that if the Scottish MPA network is to fulfil objectives of conservation and restoration, the implications of climate change for the design, management and monitoring of the network must be considered. In particular, there needs to be a greater focus on: i) incorporating ecological principles that directly address climate change ii) effective protection that builds resilience of the marine and linked social environment iii) developing a focused, strong and adaptable monitoring framework iv) ensuring mechanisms for adaptive management.

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This paper explores the effect of using regional data for livestock attributes on estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the northern beef industry in Australia, compared with using state/territory-wide values, as currently used in Australia’s national GHG inventory report. Regional GHG emissions associated with beef production are reported for 21 defined agricultural statistical regions within state/territory jurisdictions. A management scenario for reduced emissions that could qualify as an Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) project was used to illustrate the effect of regional level model parameters on estimated abatement levels. Using regional parameters, instead of state level parameters, for liveweight (LW), LW gain and proportion of cows lactating and an expanded number of livestock classes, gives a 5.2% reduction in estimated emissions (range +12% to –34% across regions). Estimated GHG emissions intensity (emissions per kilogram of LW sold) varied across the regions by up to 2.5-fold, ranging from 10.5 kg CO2-e kg–1 LW sold for Darling Downs, Queensland, through to 25.8 kg CO2-e kg–1 LW sold for the Pindan and North Kimberley, Western Australia. This range was driven by differences in production efficiency, reproduction rate, growth rate and survival. This suggests that some regions in northern Australia are likely to have substantial opportunities for GHG abatement and higher livestock income. However, this must be coupled with the availability of management activities that can be implemented to improve production efficiency; wet season phosphorus (P) supplementation being one such practice. An ERF case study comparison showed that P supplementation of a typical-sized herd produced an estimated reduction of 622 t CO2-e year–1, or 7%, compared with a non-P supplemented herd. However, the different model parameters used by the National Inventory Report and ERF project means that there was an anomaly between the herd emissions for project cattle excised from the national accounts (13 479 t CO2-e year–1) and the baseline herd emissions estimated for the ERF project (8 896 t CO2-e year–1) before P supplementation was implemented. Regionalising livestock model parameters in both ERF projects and the national accounts offers the attraction of being able to more easily and accurately reflect emissions savings from this type of emissions reduction project in Australia’s national GHG accounts.