International Portfolio Investments and The Informational Value of Trade

A large volume of literature suggests that information asymmetry resulting from the spatial separation between investors and investments have a significant impact on the composition of investors’ domestic and international portfolios. I show that institutional factors affecting trading in tangible goods help explain a substantial portion of investors’ spatial bias. More importantly, I demonstrate that an information flow medium with breadth and richness directly linked to the bilateral commitment of resources between countries, that I measure by their trading intensity in tangible goods, is consistent with the prevailing country allocation in investors’ international portfolios.

The Informational Value of Corporate Credit Ratings

This thesis examines the quality of credit ratings issued by the three major credit rating agencies - Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch. If credit ratings are informative, then prices of underlying credit instruments such as fixed-income securities and credit default insurance should change to reflect the new credit risk information. Using data on 246 different major fixed income securities issuers and spanning January 2000 to December 2011, we find that credit default swaps (CDS) spreads do not react to changes in credit ratings. Hence credit ratings for all three agencies are not price informative. CDS prices are mostly determined by historical CDS prices while ratings are mostly determined by historical ratings. We find that credit ratings are marginally more sensitive to CDS than CDS are sensitive to ratings.

Genetic testing with primary prevention and moral hazard

We develop a model where a free genetic test reveals whether the individual tested has a low or high probability of developing a disease. A costly prevention effort allows high-risk agents to decrease the probability of developing the disease. Agents are not obliged to take the test, but must disclose its results to insurers. Insurers offer separating contracts which take into account the individual risk, so that taking the test is associated to a discrimination risk. We study the individual decisions to take the test and to undertake the prevention effort as a function of the effort cost and of its e¢ ciency. We obtain that, if effort is observable by insurers, agents undertake the test only if the effort cost is neither too large nor too low. If the effort cost is not observable by insurers, they face a moral hazard problem which induces them to under-provide insurance. We obtain the counterintuitive result that moral hazard increases the value of the test if the effort cost is low enough. Also, agents may perform the test for lower levels of prevention e¢ ciency when effort is not observable

The diagnostic value of a treadmill test in predicting lumbar spinal stenosis

Lumbar spinal stenosis is a frequent indication for spinal surgery. The predictive quality of treadmill testing and MRI for diagnostic verification is not yet clearly defined. Aim of the current study was to assess correlations between treadmill testing and MRI findings in the lumbar spine. Twenty-five patients with lumbar spinal stenosis were prospectively examined. Treadmill tests were performed and the area of the dural sac and neuroforamina was examined with MRI for the narrowest spinal segment. VAS and ODI were used for clinical assessment. The median age of the patients was 67 years. In the narrowest spinal segment the median area of the dural sac was 91 mm(2). The median ODI was 66 per cent. The median walking distance in the treadmill test was 70 m. The distance reached in the treadmill test correlated with the area of the dural sac (Spearman's rho = 0.53) and ODI (rho = -0.51), but not with the area of the neuroforamina and VAS. The distance reached in the treadmill test predicts the grade of stenosis in MRI but has a limited diagnostic importance for the level of clinical symptoms in lumbar spinal stenosis.

The value of health and wellbeing : an empirical model of value creation in social marketing

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of multiple actors in the value creation process for a preventative health service, and observe the subsequent impact on key service outcomes of satisfaction and customer behaviour intentions to use a preventative health service again in the future. Design/methodology/approach An online self-completion survey of Australian women (n=797) was conducted to test the proposed framework in the context of a free, government-provided breastscreening service. Data were analysed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Findings The findings indicate that functional and emotional value are created from organisational and customer resources. These findings indicate that health service providers and customers are jointly responsible for the successful creation of value, leading to desirable outcomes for all stakeholders. Practical implications The results highlight to health professionals the aspects of service that can be managed in order to create value with target audiences. The findings also indicate the importance of the resources provided by users in the creation of value, signifying the importance of customer education and management. Originality/value This study provides a significant contribution to social marketing through the provision of an empirically validated model of value creation in a preventative health service. The model demonstrates how the creation and provision of value can lead to the achievement of desirable social behaviours - a key aim of social marketing.

Prognostic value of hTERT mRNA expression in surgical samples of lung cancer patients : the European Early Lung Cancer Project

Lung cancer is the most important cause of cancer-related mortality. Resectability and eligibility for treatment with adjuvant chemotherapy is determined by staging according to the TNM classification. Other determinants of tumour behaviour that predict disease outcome, such as molecular markers, may improve decision-making. Activation of the gene encoding human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) is implicated in the pathogenesis of lung cancer, and consequently detection of hTERT mRNA might have prognostic value for patients with early stage lung cancer. A cohort of patients who underwent a complete resection for early stage lung cancer was recruited as part of the European Early Lung Cancer (EUELC) project. In 166 patients expression of hTERT mRNA was determined in tumour tissue by quantitative real-time RT-PCR and related to that of a house-keeping gene (PBGD). Of a subgroup of 130 patients tumour-distant normal tissue was additionally available for hTERT mRNA analysis. The correlation between hTERT levels of surgical samples and disease-free survival was determined using a Fine and Gray hazard model. Although hTERT mRNA positivity in tumour tissue was significantly associated with clinical stage (Fisher's exact test p=0.016), neither hTERT mRNA detectability nor hTERT mRNA levels in tumour tissue were associated with clinical outcome. Conversely, hTERT positivity in adjacent normal samples was associated with progressive disease, 28% of patients with progressive disease versus 7.5% of disease-free patients had detectable hTERT mRNA in normal tissue [adjusted HR: 3.60 (1.64-7.94), p=0.0015]. hTERT mRNA level in tumour tissue has no prognostic value for patients with early stage lung cancer. However, detection of hTERT mRNA expression in tumour-distant normal lung tissue may indicate an increased risk of progressive disease.

Value of total body potassium in assessing the nutritional status of children with end-stage liver disease

Malnutrition is a common problem in children with end-stage liver disease (ESLD), and accurate assessment of nutritional status is essential in managing these children. In a retrospective study, we compared nutritional assessment by anthropometry with that by body composition. We analyzed all consecutive measurements of total body potassium (TBK, n = 186) of children less than 3 years old with ESLD awaiting transplantation found in our database. The TBK values obtained by whole body counting of 40K were compared with reference TRK values of healthy children. The prevalence of malnutrition, as assessed by weight (weight Z score < -2) was 28%, which was significantly lower (chi-square test, p < 0.0001) than the prevalence of malnutrition (76%) assessed by TBK (< 90% of expected TRK for age). These results demonstrated that body weight underestimated the nutritional deficit and stressed the importance of measuring body composition as part of assessing nutritional status of children with ESLD.

Informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance market

This thesis studies the informational efficiency of the European Union emission allowance (EUA) market. In an efficient market, the market price is unpredictable and profits above average are impossible in the long run. The main research problem is does the EUA price follow a random walk. The method is an econometric analysis of the price series, which includes an autocorrelation coefficient test and a variance ratio test. The results reveal that the price series is autocorrelated and therefore a nonrandom walk. In order to find out the extent of predictability, the price series is modelled with an autoregressive model. The conclusion is that the EUA price is autocorrelated only to a small degree and that the predictability cannot be used to make extra profits. The EUA market is therefore considered informationally efficient, although the price series does not fulfill the requirements of a random walk. A market review supports the conclusion, but it is clear that the maturing of the market is still in process.

Digestible protein and energy value of fish meal, dextrin, fish oil and soybean oil for Thai sharpunti (Puntius gonionotus Bleeker)

A laboratory trial was conducted to determine the digestible protein and energy value of fish meal, dextrin, fish oil and soybean oil for Thai sharpunti (Puntius gonionotus Bleeker). A reference diet containing 35% protein was formulated in which fish meal was the sole source of protein. Five test diets were formulated using reference diet and individual test ingredients (fish meal, dextrin, fish oil and soybean oil). Each treatment had three replicates with 15 fish per replicate. Fish were fed twice daily at the rate of 5% of their body weight. The result of the study indicated that the dietary protein in both reference and test diets were well digested and the apparent protein digestibility (APD) values of test diets ranged between 82.81 and 85.99%. The APD value of fish meal protein was 88.05%. The apparent digestible energy (ADE) value for the test ingredients ranged between 70.79 and 85.80% with soybean oil having the highest and fish meal the lowest value. The ADE values calculated in terms of Kcal/g of ingredients were 3.68, 3.22, 4.38 and 4.44 Kcal/g for fish meal, dextrin, fish oil and soybean oil respectively.

Do You Want to Hear the Bad News? The Value of Diagnostic Tests for Alzheimer's Disease.

OBJECTIVE: The diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains difficult. Lack of diagnostic certainty or possible distress related to a positive result from diagnostic testing could limit the application of new testing technologies. The objective of this paper is to quantify respondents' preferences for obtaining AD diagnostic tests and to estimate the perceived value of AD test information. METHODS: Discrete-choice experiment and contingent-valuation questions were administered to respondents in Germany and the United Kingdom. Choice data were analyzed by using random-parameters logit. A probit model characterized respondents who were not willing to take a test. RESULTS: Most respondents indicated a positive value for AD diagnostic test information. Respondents who indicated an interest in testing preferred brain imaging without the use of radioactive markers. German respondents had relatively lower money-equivalent values for test features compared with respondents in the United Kingdom. CONCLUSIONS: Respondents preferred less invasive diagnostic procedures and tests with higher accuracy and expressed a willingness to pay up to €700 to receive a less invasive test with the highest accuracy.

The value of tests in the diagnosis and management of glaucoma.

PURPOSE:

To assess the noneconomic value of tests used in the diagnosis and management of glaucoma, and explore the contexts and factors that determine such value.

DESIGN:

Perspective.

METHODS:

Selected articles from primary and secondary sources were reviewed and interpreted in the context of the authors' clinical and research experience, influenced by our perspectives on the tasks of reducing the global problem of irreversible blindness caused by glaucoma. The value of any test used in glaucoma is addressed by 3 questions regarding: its contexts, its kind of value, and its implicit or explicit benefits.

RESULTS:

Tonometry, slit-lamp gonioscopy, and optic disc evaluation remain the foundation of clinic-based case finding, whether in areas of more or less abundant resources. In resource-poor areas, there is urgency in identifying patients at risk for severe functional loss of vision; screening strategies have proven ineffective, and efforts are hindered by the inadequate allocation of support. In resource-abundant areas, the wider spectrum of glaucoma is addressed, with emphasis on early detection of structural changes of little functional consequence; these are increasingly the focus of new and expensive technologies whose clinical value has not been established in longitudinal and population-based studies. These contrasting realities in part reflect differences among the value ascribed, often implicitly, to the tests used in glaucoma.

CONCLUSIONS:

The value of any test is determined by 3 aspects: its context of usage; its comparative worth and to whom its benefit accrues; and how we define historically what we are testing. These multiple factors

The Value of Full Scale Prototype Data - Testing Oyster 800 at EMEC, Orkney

This paper demonstrates the unparalleled value of full scale data which has been acquired from ocean trials of Aquamarine Power’s Oyster 800 Wave Energy Converter (WEC) at the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC), Orkney, Scotland.
High quality prototype and wave data were simultaneously recorded in over 750 distinct sea states (comprising different wave height, wave period and tidal height combinations) and include periods of operation where the hydraulic Power Take-Off (PTO) system was both pressurised (damped operation) and de-pressurised (undamped operation).
A detailed model-prototype correlation procedure is presented where the full scale prototype behaviour is compared to predictions from both experimental and numerical modelling techniques via a high temporal resolution wave-by-wave reconstruction. This unquestionably provides the definitive verification of the capabilities of such research techniques and facilitates a robust and meaningful uncertainty analysis to be performed on their outputs.
The importance of a good data capture methodology, both in terms of handling and accuracy is also presented. The techniques and procedures implemented by Aquamarine Power for real-time data management are discussed, including lessons learned on the instrumentation and infrastructure required to collect high-value data.

Diagnostic value of surgical lung biopsy: comparison with clinical and radiological diagnosis

OBJECTIVE: To determine overall and disease-related accuracy of the clinical/imagiological evaluation for pulmonary infiltrates of unknown aetiology, compared with the pathological result of the surgical lung biopsy (SLB) and to evaluate the need for the latter in this setting. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of the experiences of SLB in 366 consecutive patients during the past 5 years. The presumptive diagnosis was based on clinical, imagiological and non-invasive or minimally invasive diagnostic procedures and compared with the gold standard of histological diagnosis by SLB. We considered five major pathological groups: diffuse parenchymal lung disease (DPLD), primitive neoplasms, metastases, infectious disease and other lesions. Patients with previous histological diagnosis were excluded. RESULTS: In 56.0% of patients (n=205) clinical evaluation reached a correct diagnosis, in 42.6% a new diagnosis was established (n=156) by the SLB, which was inconclusive in 1.4% (n=5). The pre-test probability for each disease was 85% for DPLD, 75% for infectious disease, 64% for primitive neoplasms and 60% for metastases. Overall sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the clinical/radiological diagnosis were 70%, 90%, 62% and 92%, respectively. For DPLD: 67%, 90%, 76% and 85%; primitive neoplasms: 47%, 90%, 46% and 90%; metastases: 99%, 79%, 60% and 99%; infectious disease 38%, 98%, 53% and 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a high sensitivity and specificity of the clinical and imagiological diagnosis, the positive predictive value was low, particularly in the malignancy group. SLB should be performed in pulmonary infiltrates of unknown aetiology because the clinical/imagiological assessment missed and/or misdiagnosed an important number of patients.