A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypotheses testing for structural calibration model

The main objective of this paper is to discuss maximum likelihood inference for the comparative structural calibration model (Barnett, in Biometrics 25:129-142, 1969), which is frequently used in the problem of assessing the relative calibrations and relative accuracies of a set of p instruments, each designed to measure the same characteristic on a common group of n experimental units. We consider asymptotic tests to answer the outlined questions. The methodology is applied to a real data set and a small simulation study is presented.

Hypotheses Testing on a Multivariate Null Intercept Errors-in-Variables Model

Considering the Wald, score, and likelihood ratio asymptotic test statistics, we analyze a multivariate null intercept errors-in-variables regression model, where the explanatory and the response variables are subject to measurement errors, and a possible structure of dependency between the measurements taken within the same individual are incorporated, representing a longitudinal structure. This model was proposed by Aoki et al. (2003b) and analyzed under the bayesian approach. In this article, considering the classical approach, we analyze asymptotic test statistics and present a simulation study to compare the behavior of the three test statistics for different sample sizes, parameter values and nominal levels of the test. Also, closed form expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix are presented. We consider two real numerical illustrations, the odontological data set from Hadgu and Koch (1999), and a quality control data set.

On Special Case of Multiple Hypotheses Optimal Testing for Three Differently Distributed Random Variables

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P30.

Ambiente de desenvolvimento e início da vida reprodutiva em mulheres Brasileiras

Modelos teóricos inspirados na teoria da história de vida têm avaliado padrões de reprodução humanos em países desenvolvidos, com resultados ainda não conclusivos. Em vista das condições de vida na população brasileira, foram investigadas relações entre marcos da carreira reprodutiva feminina, condições ambientais e variáveis psicossociais relacionadas às condições de criação. Foram entrevistadas 606 mulheres em seis estados. Os resultados apóiam a teoria da história de vida, mostrando associações entre condições de vida na infância e início da vida sexual e da reprodução, mas não com a idade da menarca. Sugerimos que diferentes marcadores da vida reprodutiva podem estar sob controle de diferentes fenômenos e que a diversidade de condições da população brasileira oferece contextos alternativos para testar hipóteses.

Interspecific variation in plumage colour among birds: species recognition or light environment?

The traditional explanation for interspecific plumage colour variation in birds is that colour differences between species are adaptations to minimize the risk of hybridization. Under this explanation, colour differences between closely related species of birds represent reproductive character displacement. An alternative explanation is that interspecific variation in plumage colour is an adaptive response to variation in light environments across habitats. Under this explanation, differences in colour between closely related species are a product of selection on signal efficiency. We use a comparative approach to examine these two hypotheses, testing the effects of sympatry and habitat use, respectively, on divergence in male plumage colour. Contrary to the prediction of the Species Isolation Hypothesis, we find no evidence that sympatric pairs of species are consistently more divergent in coloration than are allopatric pairs of species. However, in agreement with the Light Environment Hypothesis, we find significant associations between plumage coloration and habitat use. All of these results remain qualitatively unchanged irrespective of the statistical methodology used to compare reflectance spectra, the body regions used in the analyses, or the exclusion of areas of plumage not used in sexual displays. Our results suggest that, in general, interspecific variation in plumage colour among birds is more strongly influenced by the signalling environment than by the risk of hybridization.

Cross-cultural validity of the demand-control questionnaire: Swedish and Brazilian workers

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cross-cultural validity of the Demand-Control Questionnaire, comparing the original Swedish questionnaire with the Brazilian version. METHODS We compared data from 362 Swedish and 399 Brazilian health workers. Confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses were performed to test structural validity, using the robust weighted least squares mean and variance-adjusted (WLSMV) estimator. Construct validity, using hypotheses testing, was evaluated through the inspection of the mean score distribution of the scale dimensions according to sociodemographic and social support at work variables. RESULTS The confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses supported the instrument in three dimensions (for Swedish and Brazilians): psychological demands, skill discretion and decision authority. The best-fit model was achieved by including an error correlation between work fast and work intensely (psychological demands) and removing the item repetitive work (skill discretion). Hypotheses testing showed that workers with university degree had higher scores on skill discretion and decision authority and those with high levels of Social Support at Work had lower scores on psychological demands and higher scores on decision authority. CONCLUSIONS The results supported the equivalent dimensional structures across the two culturally different work contexts. Skill discretion and decision authority formed two distinct dimensions and the item repetitive work should be removed.

Disentangling the effects of key innovations on the diversification of Bromelioideae (bromeliaceae).

The evolution of key innovations, novel traits that promote diversification, is often seen as major driver for the unequal distribution of species richness within the tree of life. In this study, we aim to determine the factors underlying the extraordinary radiation of the subfamily Bromelioideae, one of the most diverse clades among the neotropical plant family Bromeliaceae. Based on an extended molecular phylogenetic data set, we examine the effect of two putative key innovations, that is, the Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and the water-impounding tank, on speciation and extinction rates. To this aim, we develop a novel Bayesian implementation of the phylogenetic comparative method, binary state speciation and extinction, which enables hypotheses testing by Bayes factors and accommodates the uncertainty on model selection by Bayesian model averaging. Both CAM and tank habit were found to correlate with increased net diversification, thus fulfilling the criteria for key innovations. Our analyses further revealed that CAM photosynthesis is correlated with a twofold increase in speciation rate, whereas the evolution of the tank had primarily an effect on extinction rates that were found five times lower in tank-forming lineages compared to tank-less clades. These differences are discussed in the light of biogeography, ecology, and past climate change.

The COSMIN checklist for evaluating the methodological quality of studies on measurement properties: a clarification of its content

Background: The COSMIN checklist (COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement INstruments) was developed in an international Delphi study to evaluate the methodological quality of studies on measurement properties of health-related patient reported outcomes (HR-PROs). In this paper, we explain our choices for the design requirements and preferred statistical methods for which no evidence is available in the literature or on which the Delphi panel members had substantial discussion. Methods: The issues described in this paper are a reflection of the Delphi process in which 43 panel members participated. Results: The topics discussed are internal consistency (relevance for reflective and formative models, and distinction with unidimensionality), content validity (judging relevance and comprehensiveness), hypotheses testing as an aspect of construct validity (specificity of hypotheses), criterion validity (relevance for PROs), and responsiveness (concept and relation to validity, and (in) appropriate measures).Conclusions: We expect that this paper will contribute to a better understanding of the rationale behind the items, thereby enhancing the acceptance and use of the COSMIN checklist.

A note on robust detection

We introduce a simple new hypothesis testing procedure, which,based on an independent sample drawn from a certain density, detects which of $k$ nominal densities is the true density is closest to, under the total variation (L_{1}) distance. Weobtain a density-free uniform exponential bound for the probability of false detection.

Searchig the links between "knowledge governance mechanisms", "the individual conditions of knowledge sharing", and "individual's knowledge sharing behaviour".

The objective of this study was to understand how organizational knowledge governance mechanisms affect individual motivation, opportunity, and the ability to share knowledge (MOA framework), and further, how individual knowledge-sharing conditions affect actual knowledge sharing behaviour. The study followed the knowledge governance approach and a micro-foundations perspective to develop a theoretical model and hypotheses, which could explain the casual relationships between knowledge governance mechanisms, individual knowledge sharing conditions, and individual knowledge sharing behaviour. The quantitative research strategy and multivariate data analysis techniques (SEM) were used in the hypotheses testing with a survey dataset of 256 employees from eleven military schools of Finnish Defence Forces (FDF). The results showed that “performance-based feedback and rewards” affects employee’s “intrinsic motivation towards knowledge sharing”, that “lateral coordination” affects employee’s “knowledge self-efficacy”, and that ”training and development” is positively related to “time availability” for knowledge sharing but affects negatively employee’s knowledge self-efficacy. Individual motivation and knowledge self-efficacy towards knowledge sharing affected knowledge sharing behaviour when work-related knowledge was shared 1) between employees in a department and 2) between employees in different departments, however these factors did not play a crucial role in subordinate–superior knowledge sharing. The findings suggest that individual motivation, opportunity, and the ability towards knowledge sharing affects individual knowledge sharing behaviour differently in different knowledge sharing situations. Furthermore, knowledge governance mechanisms can be used to manage individual-level knowledge sharing conditions and individual knowledge sharing behaviour but their affect also vary in different knowledge sharing situations.

Comparing time-varying autoregressive structures of locally stationary processes

In this paper, a novel statistical test is introduced to compare two locally stationary time series. The proposed approach is a Wald test considering time-varying autoregressive modeling and function projections in adequate spaces. The covariance structure of the innovations may be also time- varying. In order to obtain function estimators for the time- varying autoregressive parameters, we consider function expansions in splines and wavelet bases. Simulation studies provide evidence that the proposed test has a good performance. We also assess its usefulness when applied to a financial time series.

Auction econometrics by least squares

This paper proposes a method to structurally estimate an auction model using a variation of OLS, under commonly held assumptions in both auction theory and econometrics. In spite of its computational simplicity, the method applies to a wide variety of environments, including interdependent values in general, and certain forms of endogenous participation and bidder asymmetry. Furthermore, it can be used for hypotheses testing about the shape of the valuation distribution, valuation interdependence, or existence of bidder asymmetry.

Ambiente de desenvolvimento e início da vida reprodutiva em mulheres Brasileiras

Modelos teóricos inspirados na teoria da história de vida têm avaliado padrões de reprodução humanos em países desenvolvidos, com resultados ainda não conclusivos. Em vista das condições de vida na população brasileira, foram investigadas relações entre marcos da carreira reprodutiva feminina, condições ambientais e variáveis psicossociais relacionadas às condições de criação. Foram entrevistadas 606 mulheres em seis estados. Os resultados apóiam a teoria da história de vida, mostrando associações entre condições de vida na infância e início da vida sexual e da reprodução, mas não com a idade da menarca. Sugerimos que diferentes marcadores da vida reprodutiva podem estar sob controle de diferentes fenômenos e que a diversidade de condições da população brasileira oferece contextos alternativos para testar hipóteses.

Phylogenomische Analysen bei Metazoen - Zur Stellung der Xenoturbellida und Syndermata

Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Dissertation wurde die phylogenetischen Stellungen der Xenoturbellida (Deuterostomia) und der Syndermata (Protostomia) mit phylogenomischen Techniken untersucht. Auf methodischer Ebene konnte gezeigt werden, dass ribosomale Proteine aufgrund ihres mittleren bis hohen Konservierungsgrades, ihrer Häufigkeit in kleineren EST-Projekten, damit verbunden ihrer Häufigkeit in Datenbanken und ihres phylogenetischen Informationsgehalts nützliche Werkzeuge für phylogenetische Fragestellungen sind. Es konnte durch phylogenetische Rekonstruktionen und Hypothesentests auf Basis eines 11.912 Aminosäuren langen Datensatzes gezeigt werden, dass die Xenoturbellida innerhalb der Deuterostomia eine Schwestergruppenbeziehung zu den Ambulacraria eingehen. Diese Arbeit zeigt im Vergleich aller bisher durchgeführten Arbeiten die beste statistische Unterstützung für diese Topologie. Weiterhin konnte untermauert werden, dass die Urochordata vermutlich anstelle der Cephalochordata die Schwestergruppe der Vertebrata sind. Der Vergleich der publizierten Xenoturbella EST-Datensätze mit dem eigenen Datensatz ließ den Rückschluß zu, dass ESTs offenbar klar weniger anfällig gegen Kontaminationen mit Erbmaterial (DNA+RNA) anderer Spezies sind als PCR-Amplifikate genomischer oder mitochondrialer Gene. Allerdings bestimmt anscheinend der physiologische Zustand der Tiere die Repräsentation von Transkriptklassen wie Stressproteine und mitochondriale Transkripte. Die bakteriellen Transkripte in einem der EST-Datensätze stammen vermutlich von Chlamydien, die möglicherweise symbiontisch in Xenoturbella bocki leben. Im Bereich der Protostomia wurden drei EST-Projekte für Vertreter der Syndermata durchgeführt. Basierend auf drei verschiedenen Proteinalignment-Datensätzen von ca. 11.000 Aminosäuren Länge konnte gezeigt werden, dass die Syndermata innerhalb der Spiralia einzugruppieren sind und dass sie mit den Gnathostomulida das monophyletische Supertaxon Gnathifera bilden. Die genaue phylogenetische Position der Syndermata innerhalb der Spiralia konnte hingegen noch nicht eindeutig geklärt werden, ebenso wie kein kongruenter Beweis für die Existenz des Supertaxons Platyzoa gefunden werden konnte. Im Rahmen der Untersuchung der internen Phylogenie der Syndermata konnten drei der fünf konkurrierenden Hypothesen aufgrund der Paraphylie der Eurotatoria ausgeschlossen werden. Da keine Daten der Seisonidea in den Analysen implementiert waren, bleibt die Frage der internen Phylogenie der Syndermata letztlich offen. Klar ist jedoch, dass die Eurotatoria nicht wie bislang angenommen monophyletisch sind, da die räderorgantragenden Bdelloidea keinesfalls den morphologisch diesbezüglich ähnlichen Monogononta ähnlich sind, sondern den räderorganlosen Acanthocephala näher stehen. Die Abbildung der molekularen Phylogenie auf die morphologischen Verhältnisse zeigt, dass das Räderorgan (partiell oder komplett) offenbar kurz nach der Aufspaltung der Syndermata in Monogononta und Acanthocephala + Bdelloidea in der Acanthocephala + Bdelloidea-Linie reduziert wurde. Die Entstehung des einziehbaren hinteren Körperteils (Rostrum bei Bdelloidea bzw. Proboscis bei Acanthocephala) in der Acanthocephala + Bdelloidea-Linie könnte das Schlüsselereignis zur Entstehung des Endoparasitismus der Acanthocephala gewesen sein.