Better cross hedges with composite hedging? Hedging equity portfolios using financial and commodity futures

Unless a direct hedge is available, cross hedging must be used. In such circumstances portfolio theory implies that a composite hedge (the use of two or more hedging instruments to hedge a single spot position) will be beneficial. The study and use of composite hedging has been neglected; possibly because it requires the estimation of two or more hedge ratios. This paper demonstrates a statistically significant increase in out-of-sample effectiveness from the composite hedging of the Amex Oil Index using S&P500 and New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures. This conclusion is robust to the technique used to estimate the hedge ratios, and to allowance for transactions costs, dividends and the maturity of the futures contracts.

Hedging under liquidity constraints

Although risk management can be justified by financial distress, the theoretical models usually contain hedging instruments free of funding risk. In practice, management of the counterparty risk in derivative transactions is of enhanced importance, consequently not only is trading on exchanges subject to the presence of a margin account, but also in bilateral (OTC) agreements parties will require margins or collateral from their partners in order to hedge the mark-tomarket loss of the transaction. The aim of this paper is to present and compare two models where the financing need of the hedging instrument also appears, influencing the hedging strategy and the optimal hedging ratio. Both models contain the same source of risk and optimisation criterion, but the liquidity risk is modelled in different ways. In the first model, there is no additional financing resource that can be used to finance the margin account in case of a margin call, which entails the risk of liquidation of the hedging position. In the second model, the financing is available but a given credit spread is to be paid for this, so hedging can become costly.

Valuuttakurssiriskin hallinta Yhdysvaltoihin listautuneessa sähkövoima- ja automaatioteknologia yrityksessä

Tutkimuksen päätavoite on tutkia ja kehittää Case -yrityksen valuuttakurssiriskin hallintaa. Tavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi tutkitaan kirjoitetunteorian ja tutkimusten pohjalta valuuttamarkkinoita ja -kursseja sekä valuuttakurssiriskin tunnistamista, suojaamista ja kirjaamis-ta. Eri suojausinstrumentteja ja US GAAP:in mukaista suojauslaskentaa tarkastellaan. Teoriat tarjoavat viitekehyksen Case -yrityksen valuuttahallinnan lähempään tarkasteluun. Pääpaino on empiirisessä, historiallisessa valuuttapositiotutkimuksessa, jonka tarkoituksena on selvittää yrityksessä vallinneiden valuuttasuojausten taso. Empiirinen tutkimus osoittaa joidenkin yksiköiden valuuttapolitiikan mukaisissa suojauskäytännöissä olevan parantamisen varaa. Suuriakin valuuttakurssimuutoksille alttiita avoimia positioita muodostuu johtuen liian vähäisestä tai liiallisesta suojaustoiminnasta (finanssitransaktioista). Joidenkin valuuttojen suojaaminen osoittautuu olevan vaikeampaa kuin toisten. Kirjoitetun teorian ja empiirisen tutkimuksen pohjalta tehdään valuuttariski-analyysi, pohditaan termiinien soveltuvuutta riskinhallinnan välineenä ja annetaan kehitys-ehdotuksia yrityksen nykyiselle valuuttahallinnolle ja johdon päätöksenteon tueksi. Case -yrityksen tulevia haasteita on kattavan valuuttapositio -seurantajärjestelmän kehittäminen.

Projektitoimintaa harjoittavan yrityksen valuuttahallinnon kehittäminen

Tämän tutkielman päätavoitteena on selvittää liittyykö tutkittavan, projektitoimintaa harjoittavan yrityksen valuuttahallinnon järjestämiseen kehitystarpeita, ja miten yrityksen käyttämät suojausmenetelmät vaikuttavat valuuttahallinnon organisointiin ja valuuttasuojauksen onnistumiseen. Tutkimuksessa käytetään toiminta-analyyttistä tutkimusotetta. Tutkimuksen toimeksiantaja on Andritz-Ahlstrom Oy. Tutkielman teoriaosuudessa on määritelty muuttujia, jotka vaikuttavat erityisesti valuuttahallintoon projektiympäristössä. Empiriaosuudessa on esitelty Andritz-Ahlstrom Oy:n valuuttahallinnon nykytilaa ja analysoitu sen kehitystarpeita sekä käytettyjen valuuttasuojausmenetelmien toimivuutta yrityksessä tehdyn osallistuvan havainnoinnin, vertailulaskelmien ja vapaamuotoisten haastattelujen perusteella.

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

Futures trading, spot price volatility and market efficiency: evidence from European real estate securities futures

In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Seguin (1992) and the Gray’s (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and quality of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naïve and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that the contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64 %.

Grau de evidenciação da contabilidade de hedge nos maiores bancos brasileiros e europeus

Ao se reportar resultados voláteis e, sem a devida evidenciação contábil (disclosure), pode-se transmitir uma imagem negativa aos investidores e levantar dúvidas em relação aos resultados futuros, a transparência e a capacidade de gerenciamento do risco por parte dos gestores das instituições financeiras. Nas últimas décadas, a utilização da contabilidade de hedge para a gestão do risco e resultado tem estado em evidência nos grandes bancos do Brasil e do exterior. Isto ocorre pois é onde se dá a convergência das demonstrações financeiras tanto em 2005 na Europa quanto em 2010 no Brasil para o novo padrão contábil internacional (IFRS) aplicado pelo IASB. Este padrão tem exigido dos bancos grandes esforços para estar em conformidade com as novas regras estabelecidas. Nesta mesma lógica, enquanto a contabilidade de hedge nos bancos assume um papel de destaque na gestão dos riscos e resultados; a divulgação precisa e concisa das demonstrações financeiras fornece aos acionistas, investidores e demais usuários importantes informações sobre o desempenho e a condução do negócio. Isto proporciona ao mercado uma melhor condição de avaliar os riscos envolvidos e de estimar os resultados futuros para a tomada de decisão de investimento. Dentro deste contexto, foi avaliado a qualidade e o grau de evidenciação das demonstrações contábeis dos principais bancos brasileiros e europeus aos requisitos do IFRS 7, IFRS 9 e outros mais de elaboração do próprio autor. Todos esses requisitos referem-se à divulgação de informações qualitativas e quantitativas pertinentes a contabilidade de hedge. Portanto, estão associados a estratégias de gestão de risco e resultado. A avaliação do grau de evidenciação das demonstrações financeiras ao IFRS 7 e IFRS 9 foi feita através de um estudo exploratório onde se analisou as notas explicativas em IFRS dos dez maiores bancos no Brasil e na Europa pelo critério “tamanho dos ativos”. Os resultados obtidos neste estudo indicam que 59,6% das instituições analisadas cumprem as exigências do IFRS7. Outra descoberta é que o índice de cumprimento dos bancos brasileiros é maior que os bancos europeus; 68,3% vs. 50,8%. Em relação ao IFRS 9 o percentual é de apenas 23% o que é explicado pelo fato da norma ainda não estar em vigor em ambas as regiões onde poucas instituições tem se antecipado de forma voluntária para atendê-la. A avaliação da qualidade das notas explicativas referente ao hedge contábil foi feita de maneira discricionária através da observação das informações prestadas para atender aos requisitos do IFRS 7 e 9 e dos demais requisitos adicionados pelo autor. Os resultados obtidos indicam que as notas carecem de maior detalhamento dos instrumentos de hedge utilizados, bem como os objetivos de cada hedge, para dar maior transparência ao usuário da informação sobre os riscos protegidos nos respectivos balanços. O crescimento do volume de informações prestadas nas notas explicativas dos grandes bancos brasileiros e europeus após a adoção do IFRS não configurou um aumento proporcional do conteúdo informacional, prevalecendo, ainda, a forma sobre a essência. Este movimento abre espaço para discussões futuras com os agentes de mercado sobre o tamanho e o conteúdo informacional adequado nas notas explicativas, com o intuito de buscar um equilíbrio entre o custo e o benefício da divulgação da informação sob a ótica da relevância e da materialidade.

Testing co-volatility spillovers for natural gas spot, futures and ETF spot using dynamic conditional covariances

There is substantial empirical evidence that energy and financial markets are closely connected. As one of the most widely-used energy resources worldwide, natural gas has a large daily trading volume. In order to hedge the risk of natural gas spot markets, a large number of hedging strategies can be used, especially with the rapid development of natural gas derivatives markets. These hedging instruments include natural gas futures and options, as well as Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) prices that are related to natural gas stock prices. The volatility spillover effect is the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical, biological or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility of another physical, biological or financial asset. Investigating volatility spillovers within and across energy and financial markets is a crucial aspect of constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies. The paper tests and calculates spillover effects among natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets using the multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK model. The data used include natural gas spot and futures returns data from two major international natural gas derivatives markets, namely NYMEX (USA) and ICE (UK), as well as ETF data of natural gas companies from the stock markets in the USA and UK. The empirical results show that there are significant spillover effects in natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets for both USA and UK. Such a result suggests that both natural gas futures and ETF products within and beyond the country might be considered when constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies for natural gas spot prices.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

Quantil Hedging for telegraph markets and its applications to a pricing of equity-linked life insurance contracts

En este documento está desarrollado un modelo de mercado financiero basado en movimientos aleatorios con tiempo continuo, con velocidades constantes alternantes y saltos cuando hay cambios en la velocidad. Si los saltos en la dirección tienen correspondencia con la dirección de la velocidad del comportamiento aleatorio subyacente, con respecto a la tasa de interés, el modelo no presenta arbitraje y es completo. Se construye en detalle las estrategias replicables para opciones, y se obtiene una presentación cerrada para el precio de las opciones. Las estrategias de cubrimiento quantile para opciones son construidas. Esta metodología es aplicada al control de riesgo y fijación de precios de instrumentos de seguros.

[construction Of Measurement Instruments In The Area Of Health].

Measurement instruments are an integral part of clinical practice, health evaluation and research. These instruments are only useful and able to present scientifically robust results when they are developed properly and have appropriate psychometric properties. Despite the significant increase of rating scales, the literature suggests that many of them have not been adequately developed and validated. The scope of this study was to conduct a narrative review on the process of developing new measurement instruments and to present some tools which can be used in some stages of the development process. The steps described were: I-The establishment of a conceptual framework, and the definition of the objectives of the instrument and the population involved; II-Development of the items and of the response scales; III-Selection and organization of the items and structuring of the instrument; IV-Content validity, V-Pre-test. This study also included a brief discussion on the evaluation of the psychometric properties due to their importance for the instruments to be accepted and acknowledged in both scientific and clinical environments.

Possibilidades e limites da avaliação da qualidade de vida : análise dos instrumentos WHOQOL e modelos clássicos de qualidade de vida no trabalho = Possibilities and limits of quality of life assessment : analysis of WHOQOL instruments and quality of work life classical models

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Influence of Hero Apical instruments on cleaning ovoid-shaped root canals

The cleaning capacity of Hero 642 nickel-titanium files, complemented by the Hero Apical instruments in flattened roots, was determined by histological analysis, considering the area of action of the instruments on the coronal walls and the presence of remaining debris. Twenty-four single-canal, human mandibular incisors were divided into three groups and prepared as follows: GI, instrumented with Hero 642 NiTi files 30/.06, 25/.06, 20/.06, 25/.06, and 30/.06; GII, instrumented as GI followed by Hero Apical size 30/.06; GIII, instrumented as GI followed by Hero Apical sizes 30/.06 and 30/.08, then returning to 30/.06 with pendulum movements. The apical thirds were prepared for histological processing, analyzed at 40× magnification and the images were examined morphometrically. Statistical analysis showed that GIII presented the best results for removing debris (5.22% ± 4.13), with more contact between the instruments and the root canal walls (19.31% ± 0.15). This differed statistically from GI (14.04% ± 4.96 debris removal, with 42.96% ± 7.11 instrument contact) and GII (12.62% ± 5.76 debris removal, with 35.01% ± 0.15 instrument contact). Root canal preparation with Hero 642, complemented by Hero Apical instruments (30/.06 and 30/.08, then re-instrumented with Hero Apical 30/.06 using pendulum movements), was more efficient for debris removal and allowed more contact of the instruments with the root canal walls. GII presented the worst results.

Sampled Control for Mean-Variance Hedging in a Jump Diffusion Financial Market

In this technical note we consider the mean-variance hedging problem of a jump diffusion continuous state space financial model with the re-balancing strategies for the hedging portfolio taken at discrete times, a situation that more closely reflects real market conditions. A direct expression based on some change of measures, not depending on any recursions, is derived for the optimal hedging strategy as well as for the ""fair hedging price"" considering any given payoff. For the case of a European call option these expressions can be evaluated in a closed form.