Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A grid-based index method for time warping distance

Recently DTW (dynamic time warping) has been recognized as the most robust distance function to measure the similarity between two time series, and this fact has spawned a flurry of research on this topic. Most indexing methods proposed for DTW are based on the R-tree structure. Because of high dimensionality and loose lower bounds for time warping distance, the pruning power of these tree structures are quite weak, resulting in inefficient search. In this paper, we propose a dimensionality reduction method motivated by observations about the inherent character of each time series. A very compact index file is constructed. By scanning the index file, we can get a very small candidate set, so that the number of page access is dramatically reduced. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on real and synthetic datasets.

Grid-based method for ranking images with multiple objects

One of the content-based image retrieval techniques is the shape-based technique, which allows users to ask for objects similar in shape to a query object. Sajjanhar and Lu proposed a method for shape representation and similarity measure called the grid-based method [1]. They have shown that the method is effective for the retrieval of segmented objects based on shape. In this paper, we describe a system which uses the grid-based method for retrieval of images with multiple objects. We perform experiments on the prototype system to compare the performance of the grid-based method with the Fourier descriptors method [2]. Preliminary results have been presented.

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Grid-based histogram arithmetic for the probabilistic analysis of functions

The selection of predefined analytic grids (partitions of the numeric ranges) to represent input and output functions as histograms has been proposed as a mechanism of approximation in order to control the tradeoff between accuracy and computation times in several áreas ranging from simulation to constraint solving. In particular, the application of interval methods for probabilistic function characterization has been shown to have advantages over other methods based on the simulation of random samples. However, standard interval arithmetic has always been used for the computation steps. In this paper, we introduce an alternative approximate arithmetic aimed at controlling the cost of the interval operations. Its distinctive feature is that grids are taken into account by the operators. We apply the technique in the context of probability density functions in order to improve the accuracy of the probability estimates. Results show that this approach has advantages over existing approaches in some particular situations, although computation times tend to increase significantly when analyzing large functions.

Usability and security of gaze-based graphical grid passwords

We present and analyze several gaze-based graphical password schemes based on recall and cued-recall of grid points; eye-trackers are used to record user's gazes, which can prevent shoulder-surfing and may be suitable for users with disabilities. Our 22-subject study observes that success rate and entry time for the grid-based schemes we consider are comparable to other gaze-based graphical password schemes. We propose the first password security metrics suitable for analysis of graphical grid passwords and provide an in-depth security analysis of user-generated passwords from our study, observing that, on several metrics, user-generated graphical grid passwords are substantially weaker than uniformly random passwords, despite our attempts at designing schemes to improve quality of user-generated passwords.

Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.