Asociaciones entre la red social y la discapacidad al comienzo de la vejez en las ciudades de Madrid y Barcelona en 2005

La pérdida de autonomía a edades avanzadas no se asocia únicamente con el envejecimiento sino también con características del entorno físico y social. Investigaciones recientes han demostrado que la red social, la integración social y la participación, actúan como predictores de la discapacidad en la vejez. El objetivo de este trabajo es nalizar el efecto de la red social sobre el nivel de autonomía(en términos de discapacidad instrumental y básica) en etapas iniciales de la vejez.

A monitorização da carga de treino através da análise tempo-movimento e da perceção subjetiva do esforço, PSE, no futebol

O objetivo do presente estudo foi verificar se existe variação dos parâmetros que caraterizam a atividade motora de jogadores de futebol em treino, obtidos através do Viper Software STATSports, ao longo de vários microciclos (MCs) integrando o período preparatório (PP) e o início do período competitivo (PC), assim como, averiguar a associação existente entre a variação destes parâmetros, MC a MC, e a Perceção Subjetiva do Esforço Sessão (PSE-sessão) respetiva, e verificar, ainda, se existe correlação entre estes parâmetros e a PSE, em cada MC do período considerado. A amostra do estudo foi constituída por 13 jogadores (idade: 25 ± 1,78 anos) de futebol do sexo masculino a competir no escalão de Séniores da Associação Futebol de Setúbal. A recolha de dados ocorreu durante o PP (4 semanas) e o PC (4 semanas). Os jogadores incluídos no estudo cumpriram o único critério definido: a realização total das sessões de treino previstas. Os instrumentos utilizados durante o processo foram o sistema Viper (Viper Software v.1.2, STATSports), integrando um GPS 10 Hz, acelerómetro 100 Hz, cardiofrequencímetro e a escala de PSE adaptada por Foster. Verificou-se elevada variabilidade no comportamento dos parâmetros no PP, mas não nos 3 últimos MCs já integrados no PC. Verificamos forte associação entre os parâmetros Distância Explosiva (r=0,762), Nº Esforços de Elevada Carga Metabólica (r=0,714), Nº Acelerações (r=0,714), Nº Desacelerações (r=0,762) e a PSE-sessão (p˂0,05). O parâmetro com maior potencial preditor de elevados valores da PSE-sessão é a Distância Explosiva (p˂0,001). Por fim, não encontramos uma associação regular entre os parâmetros e a PSE-sessão em cada MC. Os valores de PSE-sessão apresentados durante o estudo são semelhantes a valores apresentados em outros estudos no futebol profissional. Conclui-se que no PP ocorreu a variabilidade de todos os parâmetros e estabilização no PC da Distância Total, Distância de Elevada Carga Metabólica, Distâcia Explosiva, Nº Esforços de Elevada Carga Metabólica e PSE-sessão. A PSE-sessão depende dos parâmetros Distância Explosiva, Nº Esforços de Elevada Carga Metabólica, Nº Acelerações e Nº Desacelerações, i.e., as ações de elevada exigência metabólica e neuromuscular explicam a relação existente entre os parâmetros de carga e a PSE-sessão como indicador global de carga interna. A utilização do sistema Viper possibilita a recolha de parâmetros que descrevem as exigências fisícas a que os jogadores estão sujeitos e fornece informação fundamental para o planeamento do treino em conjunto com a recolha sistemática da PSE-sessão.

Integrated pest management and the (un)sustainable use of pesticides

Doutoramento em Engenharia Agronómica - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

A neural approach for determination of global energetic efficiency indicator in groundwater wells

In most of the cases, the systems of water distribution from groundwater wells use electrical submersible pumps. All electrical energy is applied to the pumps; however, other components (pipes, valves, etc.) of these systems are also responsible by the higher or lower consumption of electric energy. The supervisors and operators of the systems should thus have knowledge of the global energetic behavior of the process in order to administrate it properly. This work suggests a 'Global Energetic Efficiency Indicator' for groundwater wells by using mathematical equations and neural networks. Simulation results will be presented in order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Avaliação da comunicação expressiva em crianças dos 6 aos 41 meses de idade na região norte de Portugal: um estudo exploratório com o Early Communication Indicator

Dissertação de mestrado em Educação Especial (área de especialização em Intervenção Precoce)

The Inventor Balance and the Functional Specialization in Global Inventive Activities

We study the functional specialization whereby some countries contribute relatively more inventors vs. organizations in the production of inventions at a global scale. We propose a conceptual framework to explain this type of functional specialization, which posits the presence of feedbacks between two distinct sub-systems, each one providing inventors and organizations. We quantify the phenomenon by means of a new metric, the “inventor balance”, which we compute using patent data. We show that the observed imbalances, which are often conspicuous, are determined by several factors: the innovativeness of a country relative to its level of economic development, relative factor endowments, the degree of technological specialization and, last, cultural traits. We argue that the “inventor balance” is a useful indicator for policy makers, and its routine analysis could lead to better informed innovation policies.

Towards a global criteria based framework for the sustainability assessment of bioethanol supply chains: application to the Swiss dilemma : is local produced bioethanol more sustainable than bioethanol imported from Brazil?

Biofuels are considered as a promising substitute for fossil fuels when considering the possible reduction of greenhouse gases emissions. However limiting their impacts on potential benefits for reducing climate change is shortsighted. Global sustainability assessments are necessary to determine the sustainability of supply chains. We propose a new global criterion based framework enabling a comprehensive international comparison of bioethanol supply chains. The interest of this framework is that the selection of the sustainability indicators is qualified on three criterions: relevance, reliability and adaptability to the local context. Sustainability issues have been handled along environmental, social and economical issues. This new framework has been applied for a specific issue: from a Swiss perspective, is locally produced bioethanol in Switzerland more sustainable than imported from Brazil? Thanks to this framework integrating local context in its indicator definition, Brazilian production of bioethanol is shown as energy efficient and economically interesting for Brazil. From a strictly economic point of view, bioethanol production within Switzerland is not justified for Swiss consumption and questionable for the environmental issue. The social dimension is delicate to assess due to the lack of reliable data and is strongly linked to the agricultural policy in both countries. There is a need of establishing minimum sustainability criteria for imported bioethanol to avoid unwanted negative or leakage effects.

A global climatology of wind–wave interaction

Generally, ocean waves are thought to act as a drag on the surface wind so that momentum is transferred downwards, from the atmosphere into the waves. Recent observations have suggested that when long wavelength waves, characteristic of remotely generated swell, propagate faster than the surface wind momentum can also be transferred upwards. This upward momentum transfer acts to accelerate the near-surface wind, resulting in a low-level wave-driven wind jet. Previous studies have suggested that the sign reversal of the momentum flux is well predicted by the inverse wave age, the ratio of the surface wind speed to the speed of the waves at the peak of the spectrum. ECMWF ERA-40 data has been used here to calculate the global distribution of the inverse wave age to determine whether there are regions of the ocean that are usually in the wind-driven wave regime and others that are generally in the wave-driven wind regime. The wind-driven wave regime is found to occur most often in the mid-latitude storm tracks where wind speeds are generally high. The wave-driven wind regime is found to be prevalent in the tropics where wind speeds are generally light and swell can propagate from storms at higher latitudes. The inverse wave age is also a useful indicator of the degree of coupling between the local wind and wave fields. The climatologies presented emphasise the non-equilibrium that exists between the local wind and wave fields and highlight the importance of swell in the global oceans.

GISQ, a multifunctional indicator of soil quality

We present here an indicator of soil quality that evaluates soil ecosystem services through a set of 5 subindicators, and further combines them into a single general Indicator of Soil Quality (GISQ). We used information derived from 54 properties commonly used to describe the multifaceted aspects of soil quality. The design and calculation of the indicators were based on sequences of multivariate analyses. Subindicators evaluated the physical quality, chemical fertility, organic matter stocks, aggregation and morphology of the upper 5 cm of soil and the biodiversity of soil macrofauna. A GISQ combined the different subindicators providing a global assessment of soil quality. Research was conducted in two hillside regions of Colombia and Nicaragua, with similar types of land use and socio-economic context. However, soil and climatic conditions differed significantly. In Nicaragua, soil quality was assessed at 61 points regularly distributed 200 m apart on a regular grid across the landscape. In Colombia, 8 plots representing different types of land use were arbitrarily chosen in the landscape and intensively sampled. Indicators that were designed in the Nicaragua site were further applied to the Colombian site to test for their applicability. In Nicaragua, coffee plantations, fallows, pastures and forest had the highest values of GISQ (1.00; 0.80; 0.78 and 0.77, respectively) while maize crops and eroded soils (0.19 and 0.10) had the lowest values. Examination of subindicator values allowed the separate evaluation of different aspects of soil quality: subindicators of organic matter, aggregation and morphology and biodiversity of macrofauna had the maximum values in coffee plantations (0.89; 0.72 and 0.56, respectively on average) while eroded soils had the lowest values for these indicators (0.10; 0.31 and 0.33, respectively). Indicator formulae derived from information gained at the Nicaraguan sites were not applicable to the Colombian situation and site-specific constants were calculated. This indicator allows the evaluation of soil quality and facilitates the identification of problem areas through the individual values of each subindicator. It allows monitoring of change through time and can guide the implementation of soil restoration technologies. Although GISQ formulae computed on a set of data were only valid at a regional scale, the methodology used to create these indices can be applied everywhere.

Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport

The possibility of a rapid collapse in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), with associated impacts on climate, has long been recognized. The suggested basis for this risk is the existence of two stable regimes of the AMOC (‘on’ and ‘off’), and such bistable behaviour has been identified in a range of simplified climate models. However, up to now, no state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate model (AOGCM) has exhibited such behaviour, leading to the interpretation that the AMOC is more stable than simpler models indicate. Here we demonstrate AMOC bistability in the response to freshwater perturbations in the FAMOUS AOGCM - the most complex AOGCM to exhibit such behaviour to date. The results also support recent suggestions that the direction of the net freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic by the AMOC may be a useful physical indicator of the existence of bistability. We also present new estimates for this net freshwater transport by the AMOC from a range of ocean reanalyses which suggest that the Atlantic AMOC is currently in a bistable regime, although with large uncertainties. More accurate observational constraints, and an improved physical understanding of this quantity, could help narrow uncertainty in the future evolution of the AMOC and to assess the risk of a rapid AMOC collapse.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

An objective, niche-based approach to indicator species selection

1. Species-based indices are frequently employed as surrogates for wider biodiversity health and measures of environmental condition. Species selection is crucial in determining an indicators metric value and hence the validity of the interpretation of ecosystem condition and function it provides, yet an objective process to identify appropriate indicator species is frequently lacking. 2. An effective indicator needs to (i) be representative, reflecting the status of wider biodiversity; (ii) be reactive, acting as early-warning systems for detrimental changes in environmental conditions; (iii) respond to change in a predictable way. We present an objective, niche-based approach for species' selection, founded on a coarse categorisation of species' niche space and key resource requirements, which ensures the resultant indicator has these key attributes. 3. We use UK farmland birds as a case study to demonstrate this approach, identifying an optimal indicator set containing 12 species. In contrast to the 19 species included in the farmland bird index (FBI), a key UK biodiversity indicator that contributes to one of the UK Government's headline indicators of sustainability, the niche space occupied by these species fully encompasses that occupied by the wider community of 62 species. 4. We demonstrate that the response of these 12 species to land-use change is a strong correlate to that of the wider farmland bird community. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of the index based on their population trends closely matches the population dynamics of the wider community. However, in both analyses, the magnitude of the change in our indicator was significantly greater, allowing this indicator to act as an early-warning system. 5. Ecological indicators are embedded in environmental management, sustainable development and biodiversity conservation policy and practice where they act as metrics against which progress towards national, regional and global targets can be measured. Adopting this niche-based approach for objective selection of indicator species will facilitate the development of sensitive and representative indices for a range of taxonomic groups, habitats and spatial scales.

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that projecte change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small