Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: stratospheric and global circulation changes

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme ‘Maunder Minimum like’ grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference RCP8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (~1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.4 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (~−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern hemisphere (NH) winter-time, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ~3-4 m s1, with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian low at the surface and an increase in blocking over northern Europe and the north Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, new indices are developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential for pulse (GPP_P) and sustained (GPP_S) emissions, which measure the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the effects of different emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. Hence the GPP provides an additional perspective of the relative or absolute effects of emissions. It is however recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions and this limits the usefulness of a purely global metric. The GPP_P and GPP_S formulation consists of two terms, one dependent on the surface temperature change and the other dependent on the atmospheric component of the radiative forcing. For some forcing agents, and notably for CO2, these two terms oppose each other – as the forcing and temperature perturbations have different timescales, even the sign of the absolute GPP_P and GPP_S varies with time, and the opposing terms can make values sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. This makes the choice of CO2 as a reference gas problematic, especially for the GPP_S at time horizons less than about 60 years. In addition, few studies have presented results for the surface/atmosphere partitioning of different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantifying the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Values of the GPP_P and GPP_S for five long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon – BC) are presented, using illustrative values of required parameters. The resulting precipitation changes are given as the change at a specific time horizon (and hence they are end-point metrics) but it is noted that the GPPS can also be interpreted as the time-integrated effect of a pulse emission. Using CO2 as a references gas, the GPP_P and GPP_S for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPP_S is opposite in sign to the GTP_S. The sensitivity of these values to a number of input parameters is explored. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPP_P) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPP_S) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the five species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.

Integrated Sr isotope variations and global environmental changes through the late permian to early late triassic

New ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr data based on 127 well-preserved and well-dated conodont samples from South China were measured using a new technique (LA-MC-ICPMS) based on single conodont albid crown analysis. These reveal a spectacular climb in seawater ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios during the Early Triassic that was the most rapid of the Phanerozoic. The rapid increase began in Bed 25 of the Meishan section (GSSP of the Permian-Triassic boundary, PTB), and coincided closely with the latest Permian extinction. Modeling results indicate that the accelerated rise of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios can be ascribed to a rapid increase (>2.8×) of riverine flux of Sr caused by intensified weathering. This phenomenon could in turn be related to an intensification of warming-driven runoff and vegetation die-off. Continued rise of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios in the Early Triassic indicates that continental weathering rates were enhanced >1.9 times compared to those of the Late Permian. Continental weathering rates began to decline in the middle-late Spathian, which may have played a role in the decrease of oceanic anoxia and recovery of marine benthos. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values decline gradually into the Middle Triassic to an equilibrium values around 1.2 times those of the Late Permian level, suggesting that vegetation coverage did not attain pre-extinction levels thereby allowing higher runoff.

Global glacier changes

Changes in glaciers and ice caps provide some of the clearest evidence of climate change, and as such they constitute key variables for early detection strategies in global climate-related observations. These changes have impacts on global sea level fluctuations, the regional to local natural hazard situation, as well as on societies dependent on glacier meltwater. Internationally coordinated collection and publication of standardised information about ongoing glacier changes was initiated back in 1894. The compiled data sets on the global distribution and changes in glaciers and ice caps provide the backbone of the numerous scientific publications on the latest findings about surface ice on land. Since the very beginning, the compiled data has been published by the World Glacier Monitoring Service and its predecessor organisations. However, the corresponding data tables, formats and meta-data are mainly of use to specialists.

Late palaeozoic global changes affecting high-latitude environments and biotas : an introduction

The Late Palaeozoic Ice Age (LPIA), spanning approximately from ~320 Ma (Serpukhovian, late Mississippian) to 290 Ma (mid-Sakmarian, Early Permian), represents the vegetated Earth’s largest and most long-lasting regime of severe and multiple glaciations, involving processes and patterns probably comparable to those of the Last Ice Age. Accompanying the LPIA occurred a number of broadly synchronous global environmental and biotic changes. These global changes, as briefly reviewed and summarized in this introductory paper, comprised (but are not limited to) the following: massive continental reorganization in the lead up to the final assembly of Pangea resulting in profound changes in global palaeogeography, palaeoceanography and palaeobiogeogarphy; substantially lowered global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO₂), coupled with an unprecedented increase in atmospheric oxygen concentrations reaching Earth's all-time high in its last 600 million year history; sharp global temperature and sea-level drops (albeit with considerable spatial and temporal variability throughout the ice age); and apparently a prolonged period of global sluggish macro-evolution with both low extinction and origination rates compared to other times. In the aftermath of the LPIA, the world's climate entered into a transitional climate phase through the late Early to Middle Permian before its transformation into a greenhouse state towards the end-Permian. In recent years, considerable amount of data and interpretations have been published concerning the physical evidence in support of the LPIA, its broad timeframe and eustatic and ecosystem responses from the lower latitudes, but relatively less attention has been drawn to the impact of the ice age on late Palaeozoic high-latitude environments and biotas. It is with this mission in mind that we have organized this special issue, with the central focus on late Palaeozoic high latitude regions of both hemispheres, that is, Gondwana and northern Eurasia. Our aim is to gather a set of papers that not only document the physical environmental changes that had occurred in the polar regions of Gondwana and northern Eurasia during the LPIA, but also review on the biotic responses at different taxonomic, ecological and spatial scales to these physical changes in a refined chronological timeframe.

This introductory paper is designed to provide a global context for the special issue, with a brief review of key late Palaeozoic global environmental changes (including: changes in global land-sea configurations, atmospheric chemistry, global climate regimes, global ocean circulation patterns and sea levels) and large -scale biotic (biogeographic and evolutionary) responses, followed by a summary of what we see as unresolved scientific issues and various working hypotheses concerning late Palaeozoic global changes and, in particular, the LPIA, as a possible reference to future research.

Late Quaternary vegetational and climatic changes from tropical peats in southern India - An extended record up to 40,000 years BP

Stable carbon isotope ratios of peats dated (by C-14) back to 40 kyr BP from the montane region (> 1800 m asl) of the Nilgiris, southern India, reflect changes in the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plant types, which are influenced by soil moisture (and hence monsoonal precipitation), From prior to 40 kyr BP until 28 kyr BP, a general decline in delta(13)C values from about - 14 per mil to - 19 per mil suggests increased dominance of C3 plants concurrent with increasingly moist conditions, During 28-18 kyr BP there seems relatively little change with delta(13) C of - 19 to - 18 per mil, At about 16 kyr BP a sharp reversal in delta(13)C to a peak of - 14.7 per mil indicates a clear predominance of C4 vegetation associated with arid conditions, possibly during or just after the Last Glacial Maximum, A moist phase at about 9 kyr BP (the Holocene Optimum) with dominance of C3 vegetation type is observed, while arid conditions are re-established during 5-2 kyr BP with an overall dominance of C4 vegetation, New data do not support the occurrence of a moist phase coinciding with the Mediaeval Warm Period (at 0.6 kyr BP) as suggested earlier, Overall, the climate and vegetation in the high altitude regions of the southern Indian tropics seem to have responded to past global climatic changes, and this is consistent with other evidences from India and other tropical regions.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 degrees C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change

Radiative forcing is a useful tool for predicting equilibrium global temperature change. However, it is not so useful for predicting global precipitation changes, as changes in precipitation strongly depend on the climate change mechanism and how it perturbs the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Here a suite of climate model experiments and radiative transfer calculations are used to quantify and assess this dependency across a range of climate change mechanisms. It is shown that the precipitation response can be split into two parts: a fast atmospheric response that strongly correlates with the atmospheric component of radiative forcing, and a slower response to global surface temperature change that is independent of the climate change mechanism, ∼2-3% per unit of global surface temperature change. We highlight the precipitation response to black carbon aerosol forcing as falling within this range despite having an equilibrium response that is of opposite sign to the radiative forcing and global temperature change.

Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average 12% lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, 3% lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3% of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances.

Impacts of climate changes on crop physiology and food quality

Carbon emissions related to human activities have been significantly contributing to the elevation of atmospheric [CO(2)] and temperature. More recently, carbon emissions have greatly accelerated, thus much stronger effects on crops are expected. Here, we revise literature data concerning the physiological effects of CO(2) enrichment and temperature rise on crop species. We discuss the main advantages and limitations of the most used CO(2)-enrichment technologies, the Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) and the Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE). Within the conditions expected for the next few years, the physiological responses of crops suggest that they will grow faster, with slight changes in development, such as flowering and fruiting, depending on the species. There is growing evidence suggesting that C(3) crops are likely to produce more harvestable products and that both C(3) and C(4) crops are likely to use less water with rising atmospheric [CO(2)] in the absence of stressful conditions. However, the beneficial direct impact of elevated [CO(2)] on crop yield can be offset by other effects of climate change, such as elevated temperatures and altered patterns of precipitation. Changes in food quality in a warmer, high-CO(2) world are to be expected, e.g., decreased protein and mineral nutrient concentrations, as well as altered lipid composition. We point out that studies related to changes in crop yield and food quality as a consequence of global climatic changes should be priority areas for further studies, particularly because they will be increasingly associated with food security. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolite profiling reveals distinct changes in carbon and nitrogen metabolism in phosphate-deficient barley plants (Hordeum vulgare L.)

Plants modify metabolic processes for adaptation to low phosphate (P) conditions. Whilst transcriptomic analyses show that P deficiency changes hundreds of genes related to various metabolic processes, there is limited information available for global metabolite changes of P-deficient plants, especially for cereals. As changes in metabolites are the ultimate ‘readout’ of changes in gene expression, we profiled polar metabolites from both shoots and roots of P-deficient barley (Hordeum vulgare) using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The results showed that mildly P-deficient plants accumulated di- and trisaccharides (sucrose, maltose, raffinose and 6-kestose), especially in shoots. Severe P deficiency increased the levels of metabolites related to ammonium metabolism in addition to di- and trisaccharides, but reduced the levels of phosphorylated intermediates (glucose-6-P, fructose-6-P, inositol-1-P and glycerol-3-P) and organic acids (α-ketoglutarate, succinate, fumarate and malate). The results revealed that P-deficient plants modify carbohydrate metabolism initially to reduce P consumption, and salvage P from small P-containing metabolites when P deficiency is severe, which consequently reduced levels of organic acids in the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle. The extent of the effect of severe P deficiency on ammonium metabolism was also revealed by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC-MS) quantitative analysis of free amino acids. A sharp increase in the concentrations of glutamine and asparagine was observed in both shoots and roots of severely P-deficient plants. Based on these data, a strategy for improving the ability of cereals to adapt to low P environments is proposed that involves alteration in partitioning of carbohydrates into organic acids and amino acids to enable more efficient utilization of carbon in P-deficient plants.

Changes in Psychological Characteristics of Working Adults in Different Stages of Economic Transition in Lithuania

Global economic changes have psychological consequences and Mr. Lepeska set out to assess these changes in working adults in Lithuania between 1993 and 1997. He surveyed two groups of working adults, with a total of 200 people, randomly selected and representing different organisations and professions. In both groups around 30% of participants were managers, with the remainder working in non-managerial positions. The participants were surveyed twice, once in 1993 and the second time in 1997,using various psychodiagnostic tools to measure their psychological characteristics. The results showed that strategies for coping with stress have changed, with problem solving strategies being used more often, and avoidance behaviour or seeking social support less. Men tended to have rejected these strategy more radically than women. Attitudes towards work had become more positive, with managers' attitudes having changed more significantly than those of employees from lower levels of organisations. Younger people were more positive towards work-related changes, while situational anxiety tended to increase with age, although overall it remained low. Mr. Lepeska found that while there were some indications of an increasing individualist in relation to peers, the traditional collective orientation of Lithuanian adults had if anything increased. People have become more accepting of an unequal distribution of power, making it difficult to increase the participation of subordinates in decision making. He also noted a tendency for Lithuanians to see their organisations as traditional families, expecting them to take care of them physically and economically in return for loyalty. The strong feminine orientation with its stress on interpersonal relations and overall quality of life has also strengthened, but the ability of Lithuanians to take initiative and control their environment was relatively low. Mr. Lepeska concludes that organisations should seek to recruit people who are able to adjust more easily to changes and consider measuring dominance, individualism, and attitudes to work-related change and situational anxiety in the process of professional selection. There should also be more emphasis on team building and on training managers to maintain closer relationships with their subordinates so as to increase the latter's participation in decision making. Good interpersonal relations can be a strong work motivator, as may be special attention to the security needs of older employees.