The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation.

Genetic diversity across geographical scales in marine coastal ecosystems: Holothuria arguinensis a model species

Coastal lagoons are considered one of the most productive areas of our planet harboring a large variety of habitats. Their transitional character, between terrestrial and marine environments, creates a very particular ecosystem with important variations of its environmental conditions. The organisms that are able to survive on these ecosystems frequently experience strong selective pressures and constrictions to gene flowwith marine populations, which could contribute to genetic divergence among populations inhabiting coastal lagoon and marine environments. Therefore, the main aims of this study are to asses the genetic diversity and population structure of Holothuria arguinensis across geographical ranges, to test the hypothesis of coastal lagoons as hotspots of genetic diversity in the Ria Formosa lagoon, and to determine the role of exporting standing genetic variation from the lagoon to open sea and their implications to recent geographical expansion events. To reach these objectives, we investigate the genetic structure of H. arguinensis using two mitochondrial DNA markers (COI and 16S) at different spatial scales: i) small, inside Ria Formosa coastal lagoon, South Portugal; 2) large, including most of the geographical distribution of this species (South and Western Portuguese coast and Canary islands); these results will allow us to compare the genetic diversity of lagoonal and marine populations of H. arguinensis. On this framework, its recent geographical expansion events, recorded by Rodrigues (2012) and González-Wangüemert and Borrero-Pérez (2012), will be analyzed considering the potential contribution from lagoonal genetic pool. Non-significant genetic structure and high haplotypic diversity were found inside the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon. Both genes were unable to detect significant genetic differentiation among lagoonal and marine localities, suggesting a high rate of gene flow. The results supported our hypotheses that coastal lagoons are not only acting as hotspots of genetic diversity, but also contributing for the genetic variability of the species, working as a source of new haplotypes and enhancing adaptation to the high variable conditions. Different genetic patterns of colonization were found on H. arguinensis, but they must be studied more deeply.

Maize streak virus: An old and complex 'emerging' pathogen

Maize streak virus (MSV; Genus Mastrevirus, Family Geminiviridae) occurs throughout Africa, where it causes what is probably the most serious viral crop disease on the continent. It is obligately transmitted by as many as six leafhopper species in the Genus Cicadulina, but mainly by C. mbila Naudé and C. storeyi. In addition to maize, it can infect over 80 other species in the Family Poaceae. Whereas 11 strains of MSV are currently known, only the MSV-A strain is known to cause economically significant streak disease in maize. Severe maize streak disease (MSD) manifests as pronounced, continuous parallel chlorotic streaks on leaves, with severe stunting of the affected plant and, usuallly, a failure to produce complete cobs or seed. Natural resistance to MSV in maize, and/or maize infections caused by non-maize-adapted MSV strains, can result in narrow, interrupted streaks and no obvious yield losses. MSV epidemiology is primarily governed by environmental influences on its vector species, resulting in erratic epidemics every 3-10 years. Even in epidemic years, disease incidences can vary from a few infected plants per field, with little associated yield loss, to 100% infection rates and complete yield loss. Taxonomy: The only virus species known to cause MSD is MSV, the type member of the Genus Mastrevirus in the Family Geminiviridae. In addition to the MSV-A strain, which causes the most severe form of streak disease in maize, 10 other MSV strains (MSV-B to MSV-K) are known to infect barley, wheat, oats, rye, sugarcane, millet and many wild, mostly annual, grass species. Seven other mastrevirus species, many with host and geographical ranges partially overlapping those of MSV, appear to infect primarily perennial grasses. Physical properties: MSV and all related grass mastreviruses have single-component, circular, single-stranded DNA genomes of approximately 2700 bases, encapsidated in 22 × 38-nm geminate particles comprising two incomplete T = 1 icosahedra, with 22 pentameric capsomers composed of a single 32-kDa capsid protein. Particles are generally stable in buffers of pH 4-8. Disease symptoms: In infected maize plants, streak disease initially manifests as minute, pale, circular spots on the lowest exposed portion of the youngest leaves. The only leaves that develop symptoms are those formed after infection, with older leaves remaining healthy. As the disease progresses, newer leaves emerge containing streaks up to several millimetres in length along the leaf veins, with primary veins being less affected than secondary or tertiary veins. The streaks are often fused laterally, appearing as narrow, broken, chlorotic stripes, which may extend over the entire length of severely affected leaves. Lesion colour generally varies from white to yellow, with some virus strains causing red pigmentation on maize leaves and abnormal shoot and flower bunching in grasses. Reduced photosynthesis and increased respiration usually lead to a reduction in leaf length and plant height; thus, maize plants infected at an early stage become severely stunted, producing undersized, misshapen cobs or giving no yield at all. Yield loss in susceptible maize is directly related to the time of infection: Infected seedlings produce no yield or are killed, whereas plants infected at later times are proportionately less affected. Disease control: Disease avoidance can be practised by only planting maize during the early season when viral inoculum loads are lowest. Leafhopper vectors can also be controlled with insecticides such as carbofuran. However, the development and use of streak-resistant cultivars is probably the most effective and economically viable means of preventing streak epidemics. Naturally occurring tolerance to MSV (meaning that, although plants become systemically infected, they do not suffer serious yield losses) has been found, which has primarily been attributed to a single gene, msv-1. However, other MSV resistance genes also exist and improved resistance has been achieved by concentrating these within individual maiz genotypes. Whereas true MSV immunity (meaning that plants cannot be symptomatically infected by the virus) has been achieved in lines that include multiple small-effect resistance genes together with msv-1, it has proven difficult to transfer this immunity into commercial maize genotypes. An alternative resistance strategy using genetic engineering is currently being investigated in South Africa. Useful websites: 〈http://www.mcb.uct.ac.za/MSV/mastrevirus.htm〉; 〈http://www. danforthcenter.org/iltab/geminiviridae/geminiaccess/mastrevirus/Mastrevirus. htm〉. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Genetic evidence for natural hybridization between Red Snow Crab (Chionoecetes japonicus) and Snow Crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in Korea

Both red snow crab (Chionoecetes japonicus Rathbun, 1932) and snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio Fabricius, 1788) are commercially important species in Korea. The geographical ranges of the two species overlap in the East Sea, where both species are fished commercially. Morphological identification of the two species and putative hybrids can be difficult because of their overlapping morphological characteristics. The presence of putative hybrids can affect the total allowable catch (TAC) of C. japonicus and C. opilio, and causes problems managing C. japonicus and C. opilio wild resources. To date, however, no natural hybridization has been reported between C. japonicus and C. opilio, despite their overlapping distributions along the coast of the East Sea. In this study, the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of major ribosomal RNA genes from the nuclear genome and the cytochrome oxidase I (CO I) gene from the mitochondrial genome were sequenced to determine whether natural hybridization occurs between the two species. Our results revealed that all putative hybrids identified using morphological traits had two distinct types of ITS sequences corresponding to those of both parental species. Mitochondrial CO I gene sequencing showed that all putative hybrids had sequences identical to C. japonicus. A genotyping assay based on single nucleotide polymorphisms in the ITS1 region and the CO I gene produced the most efficient and accurate identification of all hybrid individuals. Molecular data clearly demonstrate that natural hybridization does occur between C. japonicus and C. opilio, but only with C. japonicus as the maternal parent.

Genetic Diversity and Adaptation of Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.)

Acquiring sufficient information on the genetic variation, genetic differentiation, and the ecological and genetic relationships among individuals and populations are essential for establishing guidelines on conservation and utilization of the genetic resources of a species, and more particularly when biotic and abiotic stresses are considered. The aim of this study was to assess the extent and pattern of genetic variation in date palm (Phoenix dacttylifera L) cultivars; the genetic diversity and structure in its populations occurring over geographical ranges; the variation in economically and botanically important traits of it and the variation in its drought adaptive traits, in conservation and utilization context. In this study, the genetic diversity and relationships among selected cultivars from Sudan and Morocco were assessed using microsatellite markers. Microsatellite markers were also used to investigate the genetic diversity within and among populations collected from different geographic locations in Sudan. In a separate investigation, fruits of cultivars selected from Sudan, involved morphological and chemical characterization, and morphological and DNA polymorphism of the mother trees were also investigated. Morphological and photosynthetic adjustments to water stress were studied in the five most important date palm cultivars in Sudan, namely, Gondaila, Barakawi, Bitamoda, Khateeb and Laggai; and the mechanism enhancing photosynthetic gas exchange in date palm under water stress was also investigated. Results showed a significant (p < 0.001, t-test) differentiation between Sudan and Morocco groups of cultivars. However, the major feature of all tested cultivars was the complete lack of clustering and the absence of cultivars representing specific clones. The results indicated high genetic as well as compositional and morphological diversity among cultivars; while, compositional and morphological traits were found to be characteristic features that strongly differentiate cultivars as well as phenotypes. High genetic diversity was observed also in different populations. Slight but significant (p < 0.01, AMOVA) divergence was observed for soft and dry types; however, the genetic divergence among populations was relatively weak. The results showed a complex genetic relationships between some of the tested populations especially when isolation by distance was considered. The results of the study also revealed that date palm cultivars and phenotypes possess specific direct or interaction effects due to water availability on a range of morphological and physiological traits. Soft and dry phenotypes responded differently to different levels of water stress, while the dry phenotype was more sensitive and conservative. The results indicated that date palm has high fixation capacity to photosynthetic CO2 supply with interaction effect to water availability, which can be considered as advantageous when coping with stresses that may arise with climate change. In conclusion, although a large amount of diversity exists among date palm germplasm, the findings in this study show that the role of biological nature of the tree, isolation by distance and environmental effects on structuring date palm genome was highly influenced by human impacts. Identity of date palm cultivars as developed and manipulated by date palm growers, in the absence of scientific breeding programmes, may continue to mainly depend on tree morphology and fruit characters. The pattern of genetic differentiation may cover specific morphological and physiological traits that contribute to adaptive mechanisms in each phenotype. These traits can be considered for further studies related to drought adaptation in date palm.

Eurasian large mammal dynamics in response to changing environments during the Late Neogene

Nisäkkäiden levinneisyyteen, niiden morfologisiin ja ekologisiin piirteisiin vaikuttavat ympäristön sekä lyhyet että pitkäkestoiset muutokset, etenkin ilmaston ja kasvillisuuden vaihtelut. Työssä tutkittiin nisäkkäiden sopeutumista ilmastonmuutoksiin Euraasiassa viimeisen 24 miljoonan vuoden aikana. Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin varsinkin viimeiseen kahteen miljoonaan vuoteen, jonka aikana ilmasto muuttui voimakkaasti ja ihmisen toiminta alkoi tulla merkittäväksi. Tämän takia on usein vaikea erottaa, kummasta em. seikasta jonkin nisäkäslajin sukupuutto tai häviäminen alueelta johtui. Aineistona käytettiin laajaa venäjänkielistä kirjallisuutta, josta löytyvät tiedot ovat kääntämättöminä jääneet aiemmin länsimaisen tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Työssä käytettiin myös NOW-tietokantaa, jossa on fossiilisten nisäkkäiden löytöpaikat sekä niiden iät.

The range expansion of the European map butterfly in Finland

Climate change will influence the living conditions of all life on Earth. For some species the change in the environmental conditions that has occurred so far has already increased the risk of extinction, and the extinction risk is predicted to increase for large numbers of species in the future. Some species may have time to adapt to the changing environmental conditions, but the rate and magnitude of the change are too great to allow many species to survive via evolutionary changes. Species responses to climate change have been documented for some decades. Some groups of species, like many insects, respond readily to changes in temperature conditions and have shifted their distributions northwards to new climatically suitable regions. Such range shifts have been well documented especially in temperate zones. In this context, butterflies have been studied more than any other group of species, partly for the reason that their past geographical ranges are well documented, which facilitates species-climate modelling and other analyses. The aim of the modelling studies is to examine to what extent shifts in species distributions can be explained by climatic and other factors. Models can also be used to predict the future distributions of species. In this thesis, I have studied the response to climate change of one species of butterfly within one geographically restricted area. The study species, the European map butterfly (Araschnia levana), has expanded rapidly northwards in Finland during the last two decades. I used statistical and dynamic modelling approaches in combination with field studies to analyse the effects of climate warming and landscape structure on the expansion. I studied possible role of molecular variation in phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI), a glycolytic enzyme affecting flight metabolism and thereby flight performance, in the observed expansion of the map butterfly at two separate expansion fronts in Finland. The expansion rate of the map butterfly was shown to be correlated with the frequency of warmer than average summers during the study period. The result is in line with the greater probability of occurrence of the second generation during warm summers and previous results on this species showing greater mobility of the second than first generation individuals. The results of a field study in this thesis indicated low mobility of the first generation butterflies. Climatic variables alone were not sufficient to explain the observed expansion in Finland. There are also problems in transferring the climate model to new regions from the ones from which data were available to construct the model. The climate model predicted a wider distribution in the south-western part of Finland than what has been observed. Dynamic modelling of the expansion in response to landscape structure suggested that habitat and landscape structure influence the rate of expansion. In southern Finland the landscape structure may have slowed down the expansion rate. The results on PGI suggested that allelic variation in this enzyme may influence flight performance and thereby the rate of expansion. Genetic differences of the populations at the two expansion fronts may explain at least partly the observed differences in the rate of expansion. Individuals with the genotype associated with high flight metabolic rate were most frequent in eastern Finland, where the rate of range expansion has been highest.

Dung beetle communities in Madagascar

The traditional aim of community ecology has been to understand the origin and maintenance of species richness in local communities. Why certain species occur in one place but not in another, how ecologically apparently similar species use resources, what is the role of the regional species pool in affecting species composition in local communities, and so forth. Madagascar offers great opportunities to conduct such studies, since it is a very large island that has been isolated for tens of million of years. Madagascar has remarkable faunal and floral diversity and species level endemism reaches 100% in many groups of species. Madagascar is also exceptional for endemism at high taxonomic levels and for the skewed representation of many taxa in comparison with continental faunas. For example, native ungulates that are dominant large herbivorous mammals on the African continent are completely lacking in Madagascar. The largest native Malagasy herbivores, and the main dung producers for Malagasy dung beetles, are the endemic primates, lemurs. Cattle was introduced to Madagascar about 1,000 yrs ago and is today abundant and widespread. I have studied Malagasy dung beetle communities and the distributional patterns of species at several spatial scales and compared the results with comparable communities in other tropical areas. There are substantial differences in dung beetle communities in Madagascar and elsewhere in the tropics in terms of the life histories of the species, species ecological traits, local and regional species diversities, and the sizes of species geographical ranges. These differences are attributed to Madagascar s ancient isolation, large size, heterogeneous environment, skewed representation of the mammalian fauna, and recent though currently great human impact.

Dung beetle radiations in Madagascar

Speciation on islands is affected by island size and the range of habitats and resources available and often also by limited interactions with other taxa. An ancestral population may evolve into a large number of species via an adaptive radiation. In Madagascar, most groups of animals and plants have radiated on the island, having arrived via oceanic dispersal during the long isolation of Madagascar. Characteristic features of Malagasy biota are exceptionally high level of endemism, high species richness as well as lack of many higher taxa that are dominant on the African mainland. Malagasy dung beetles are dominated by two tribes, Canthonini and Helictopleurina, with more than 250 endemic species. In this thesis I have reconstructed molecular phylogenies for the two tribes using several gene regions and different phylogenetic methods. Evolution of closely related species and among populations of the same species was examined with haplotype networks. The Malagasy Canthonini consists of three large lineages, while Helictopleurina forms a monophyletic group. The ancestors of each of the four clades colonised Madagascar at different times during Cenozoic. The subsequent radiations differ in terms of the number of extant species (from 37 to more than 100) and the level of ecological differentiation. In addition, Onthophagini (6 species) and Scarabaeini (3) have colonised Madagascar several times, but they have not radiated and the few species have not entered forests where Canthonini and Helictopleurina mostly occur. Among the three Canthonini radiations, speciation appears to have been mostly allopatric in the oldest and the youngest clades, while in the Epactoides clade sister species have diverged in their ecologies but have similar geographical distributions, indicating that speciation may have occurred in regional sympatry. The most likely isolating mechanisms have been rivers and forest refugia during dry and cool geological periods. Most species are generalists feeding on both carrion and dung, and competition among ecologically similar species may prevent their coexistence in the same communities. Some species have evolved to forage in the canopy and a few species have shifted to use cattle dung, a new resource in the open habitats following the introduction of cattle 1500 years ago. The latter shift has allowed species to expand their geographical ranges.

Sun skink diversification across the Indian-Southeast Asian biogeographical interface

Aim Widespread, transcontinental vertebrate groups represent ideal systems for biogeographical studies, because they can shed light on a wide range of questions relating to species diversification across the geographical template. We combined extensive geographical and genetic sampling from across multiple biogeographical realms to examine the timing and location of diversification in Asian sun skinks, a clade characterized by problematic species boundaries and a particularly enigmatic evolutionary history. Location Indian subcontinent, the Philippines, Southeast Asia and Sundaland. Methods We sequenced one mitochondrial and nine nuclear genes for most species in the genus Eutropis, and estimated phylogenetic relationships and divergence times using coalescent methods. To investigate the location of diversification events, we also estimated ancestral geographical ranges using several methods. Finally, we explored patterns of genetic diversity within several poorly understood, but widely distributed species. Results Divergence-time estimates indicate that Eutropis began to diversify during the Eocene. Biogeographical reconstructions show that species diversification was associated with dispersal into three biogeographical realms: India, Sundaland and the Philippines. Main conclusions The results of this study clarify several questions related to the evolutionary history of Eutropis, and place them in the context of classic Southeast Asian biogeography. Our study represents one of the first to compile a heavily sampled multilocus dataset ranging across international boundaries in southern Asia that have historically prevented a unified understanding of biogeographical and evolutionary processes involving the Indian subcontinent, mainland southern Asia and the island archipelagos of Southeast Asia.

Systematic status of Fejervarya ((Amphibia, Anura, Dicroglossidae) from South and SE Asia with the description of a new species from the Western Ghats of Peninsular India

We carried out a large-scale phylogenetic analysis of fejervaryan (dicroglossid frogs with `Fejervaryan lines' on the ventral side of the body) frogs, distributed in South and SE Asia, using published and newly generated sequences of unidentified individuals from the northern Western Ghats. The results corroborate the presence of a larger fejervaryan clade with a sister relationship to a clade composed of Sphaerotheca. Two sister clades could be discerned within the lager fejervaryan clade. The unidentified individuals formed a monophyletic group and showed a strong support for a sister relationship with Minervarya sahyadris. The species was found to be highly divergent (16S rRNA-4% and tyr-1%) from its sister lineage Minervarya sahyadris, and the clade composed of these two lineages were found to be deeply nested within the larger clade of Fejervarya. Based on this, the genus Minervarya Dubois, Ohler and Biju, 2001 is synonymized under the genus Fejervarya Bolkay, 1915. The unidentified lineage is recognized, based on phylogenetic position, genetic divergence and morphological divergence, as a distinct species and named here as Fejervarya gomantaki sp. nov. The presence of rictal glands was observed to be a synapomorphic character shared by the nested clade members, Fejervarya sahyadris and Fejervarya gomantaki sp. nov. Based on the presence of rictal gland and small size, Minervarya chilapata, a species from a lowland region in the Eastern Himalayas, is synonymized under Fejervarya and evidence for morphological separation from the new species, Fejervarya gomantaki sp. nov. is provided. For the fejervaryan frogs, currently three generic names (Frost, 2015) are available for the two phylogenetic subclades; the genus Fejervarya Bolkay, 1915 for the species of fejervaryan frogs having distribution in the South East Asia; the genus Zakerana Howlader, 2011 for the species of fejervaryan frogs having distribution in the South Asia and the genus Minervarya Dubois, Ohler and Biju, 2001 nested within the `Zakerana clade'. In the phylogenetic analysis Minervarya sahyadris, the new species described herein as Fejervarya gomantaki sp. nov. are nested within the `Zakerana clade', if the `Zakerana clade' for the fejervaryan frogs having distribution in the South Asia is provided a generic status the nomen `Minervarya' should be considered as per the principle of priority of the ICZN Code. Taking into consideration the overlapping distribution ranges of members of the sister clades within the larger fejervaryan clade and the absence of distinct morphological characteristics, we also synonymize the genus Zakerana Howlader, 2011, a name assigned to one of the sister clades with members predominantly distributed in South Asia, under the genus Fejervarya Bolkay, 1915. We discuss the need for additional sampling to identify additional taxa and determine the geographical ranges of the members of the sister clades within Fejervarya to resolve taxonomy within this group.

Long-term response of Torrey pine to coastal climate: precipitation, temperature, and fog

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana Parry ex Carr.) has one of the most limited geographical ranges and population size in the Pinus genus; it is present only on Santa Rosa Island and on the coast between San Diego and Del Mar, where our research was conducted. A 168-year chronology (1827-1994) was developed using 28 increment cores extracted from 15 living and 2 dead stranding trees at Torrey Pines State Reserve, San Diego, California. ... The spatial correlation with western North America winter and spring precipitation, as well as with published tree-ring chronologies, indicates a connection with the American Southwest. Global correlation maps with winter sea level pressure and sea surface temperature are consistent with the hypothesis that San Diego precipitation is affected by a southerly displaced North Pacific storm track and by warmer water farther south, both leading to higher transport of lower latitude moisture.

The effects of dispersal mode on the spatial distribution patterns of intertidal molluscs.

1. As many species of marine benthic invertebrates have a limited capacity for movement as adults, dispersal mode is often considered as a determinant of geographical ranges, genetic structure and evolutionary history. Species that reproduce without a larval stage can only disperse by floating or rafting. It is proposed that the colonization processes associated with such direct developing species result in spatial distributions that show relatively greater fine scale patchiness than the distributions of species with a larval dispersal stage. This hypothesis was tested by collecting molluscs at different spatial scales in the Isle of Man. 2. Spatial distribution patterns supported the predictions based on dispersal mode. Estimated variance components for species with larval dispersal suggested that the majority of the spatial variation was associated with variation between shores. In comparison, there was relatively more variability within shores for abundance counts of species with direct development. 3. Multivariate analyses reflected the univariate results. An assemblage of direct developers provided a better discrimination between sites (100 m separation) but the group of species with larval dispersal gave a clearer separation of shores (separated by several km). 4. The fine scale spatial structure of direct developing species was reflected in higher average species diversity within quadrats. Species richness also reflected dispersal mode, with a higher fraction of the regional species pool present for direct developers in comparison to species with larval dispersal. This may reflect the improved local persistence of taxa that avoid the larval dispersal stage.

Deforestation and apparent extinctions of endemic forest beetles in Madagascar

Madagascar has lost about half of its forest cover since 1953 with much regional variation, for instance most of the coastal lowland forests have been cleared. We sampled the endemic forest dwelling Helictopleurini dung beetles across Madagascar during 2002–2006. Our samples include 29 of the 51 previously known species for which locality information is available. The most significant factor explaining apparent extinctions (species not collected by us) is forest loss within the historical range of the focal species, suggesting that deforestation has already caused the extinction, or effective extinction, of a large number of insect species with small geographical ranges, typical for many endemic taxa in Madagascar. Currently, roughly 10% of the original forest cover remains. Species–area considerations suggest that this will allow roughly half of the species to persist. Our results are consistent with this prediction.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.