How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? : empirical analysis using state-level panel data

This paper examines empirically whether financial deepening has contributed to poverty reduction in India. Using unbalanced panel data for 28 states and union territories between 1973 and 2004, we estimate models in which the poverty ratio is explained by financial deepening, controlling for international openness, inflation rate, and economic growth. From the dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, we find that financial deepening and economic growth alleviate poverty, while international openness and the inflation rate have the opposite effect. These results are robust to changes in the poverty ratios in rural areas, urban areas, and the whole economy.

Financial depth, stock markets and economic growth in the EU-15 countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial depth on economic growth in the EU-15 countries from 1970 until 2012, using the two-step System GMM estimator. Even though it might be expected a positive impact, the results show it is negative and sometimes even negative and statistically significant. Among the reasons presented for this, the existence of banking crises seems to better explain these results. In tranquil periods, financial deepening appears to have a positive impact, whereas in banking crises it is persistently negative and statistically significant. Also, after an assessment of the impact of stock markets on economic growth, it appears that more developed countries in the EU-15 have an economy more reliant on this segment of the financial system rather than in bank intermediation.

Financial Repression in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714

If financial deepening aids economic growth, then financial repression should be harmful. We use a natural experiment – the change in the English usury laws in 1714 – to analyze the effects of interest rate restrictions. We use a sample of individual loan transactions to demonstrate how the reduction of the legal maximum rate of interest affected the supply and demand for credit. Average loan size and minimum loan size increased strongly, and access to credit worsened for those with little ‘social capital.’ While we have no direct evidence that loans were misallocated, the discontinuity in loan receipts makes this highly likely. We conclude that financial repression can undermine the positive effects of financial deepening.

A note on financial regulation and the brazilian response to the 2008‐09 financial crisis

Brazil was frequently criticized for its interventionist and heavy financial regulation up until the 2008‐09 world financial crisis.  According to the neo‐liberal or pro‐market view that predominated in academic and financial circles during the early 2000s, economic development came together with financial deepening, which in its turn could only be achieved through financial liberalization and deregulation. The currency crises of the 1990s notwithstanding, by the mid‐2000s Brazil’s segmented financial market and its restrictive reserve and capital requirements were seen as a symbol of inefficiency and backwardness by most financial specialists.  To the luck of the Brazilian population, most of the advices of such specialists were ignored by the Brazilian authorities, so that, when the 2008 financial crisis hit the world economy, Brazil still had powerful and efficient instruments to deal with the problem.  The objective of this note is to present the mains aspects of the Brazilian financial regulation and how they helped the economy to deal with the consequences of 2008‐09 financial meltdown.

Globalização e inconversibilidade monetária

The central hypothesis of this article is that in the context of globalization, monetary inconvertibility is a crucial problem of peripheral countries. It begins with a brief review of the debate from a historical point of view and then stresses the contemporary opposite's views on the fragility of financial system of emerging countries: the original sin and the debt intolerance hypothesis. Despite of supporting the first one, the article goes further and explores the domestic implication of inconvertibility. It criticizes the jurisdicional uncertainty proposition showing that an inherent flaw in the store of value of emerging market currencies, derived from original sin is the main reason for de facto inconvertibility and underdevelopment of domestic financial system of these countries.

A new approach to development banking in Jamaica

Includes bibliography

Evaluating productive efficiency:comparative study of commercial banks in Gulf countries

Financial institutes are an integral part of any modern economy. In the 1970s and 1980s, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries made significant progress in financial deepening and in building a modern financial infrastructure. This study aims to evaluate the performance (efficiency) of financial institutes (banking sector) in GCC countries. Since, the selected variables include negative data for some banks and positive for others, and the available evaluation methods are not helpful in this case, so we developed a Semi Oriented Radial Model to perform this evaluation. Furthermore, since the SORM evaluation result provides a limited information for any decision maker (bankers, investors, etc...), we proposed a second stage analysis using classification and regression (C&R) method to get further results combining SORM results with other environmental data (Financial, economical and political) to set rules for the efficient banks, hence, the results will be useful for bankers in order to improve their bank performance and to the investors, maximize their returns. Mainly there are two approaches to evaluate the performance of Decision Making Units (DMUs), under each of them there are different methods with different assumptions. Parametric approach is based on the econometric regression theory and nonparametric approach is based on a mathematical linear programming theory. Under the nonparametric approaches, there are two methods: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposal Hull (FDH). While there are three methods under the parametric approach: Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA); Thick Frontier Analysis (TFA) and Distribution-Free Analysis (DFA). The result shows that DEA and SFA are the most applicable methods in banking sector, but DEA is seem to be most popular between researchers. However DEA as SFA still facing many challenges, one of these challenges is how to deal with negative data, since it requires the assumption that all the input and output values are non-negative, while in many applications negative outputs could appear e.g. losses in contrast with profit. Although there are few developed Models under DEA to deal with negative data but we believe that each of them has it is own limitations, therefore we developed a Semi-Oriented-Radial-Model (SORM) that could handle the negativity issue in DEA. The application result using SORM shows that the overall performance of GCC banking is relatively high (85.6%). Although, the efficiency score is fluctuated over the study period (1998-2007) due to the second Gulf War and to the international financial crisis, but still higher than the efficiency score of their counterpart in other countries. Banks operating in Saudi Arabia seem to be the highest efficient banks followed by UAE, Omani and Bahraini banks, while banks operating in Qatar and Kuwait seem to be the lowest efficient banks; this is because these two countries are the most affected country in the second Gulf War. Also, the result shows that there is no statistical relationship between the operating style (Islamic or Conventional) and bank efficiency. Even though there is no statistical differences due to the operational style, but Islamic bank seem to be more efficient than the Conventional bank, since on average their efficiency score is 86.33% compare to 85.38% for Conventional banks. Furthermore, the Islamic banks seem to be more affected by the political crisis (second Gulf War), whereas Conventional banks seem to be more affected by the financial crisis.

Global and regional financial safety nets: lessons from Europe and Asia. Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06 [07?], November 2013

The Asian financial crisis (1997) and the European crisis (2009) have both contributed to the development and deepening of regional safety net arrangements. This paper analyses the relationships between global and regional financial safety nets, and uncovers the potential tensions and operational challenges associated with the involvement of several institutional players with potentially different interests, analytical biases and governance. The G20 has acknowledged the importance of these new players for the international monetary system, but the principles for cooperation between the IMF and regional financing arrangements are far too broad and ad hoc to contribute to a coherent and effective architecture. This paper tries to establish some lessons learned from the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the current European crisis in order to enhance the effectiveness, efficiency, equity and governance of these arrangements. In particular, it proposes changes to the IMF articles of agreement to allow for lending or guarantees to regional arrangements directly and it establishes some key desirable features and practices of regional mechanisms that should be adopted everywhere to ensure some global consistency, particularly in the field of macroeconomic surveillance, programme design and conditionality.

A ship run aground Deepening problems in the Ukrainian economy. OSW Commentary Number 173, 16 June 2015

The drop in Ukraine’s GDP by nearly 18% in the first three months of 2015 (versus the corresponding period in 2014) has confirmed the decline of the country’s economy. Over the last 14 months, the Ukrainian currency was subject to an almost threefold devaluation against the US dollar, and in April 2015 the inflation rate was 61% (year-on-year), which exacerbated the impoverishment of the general public and weakened domestic demand. The main reason behind the crisis has been the destruction of heavy industry and infrastructure in the war-torn Donbas region, over which Kyiv no longer has control, as well as a sharp decline in foreign trade (by 24% in 2014 and by 34% in the first quarter of 2015), recorded primarily in trading volume with Ukraine’s major trade partner, i.e. Russia (a drop of 43%). The conflict has also had a negative impact on the production figures for the two key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: agriculture and metallurgy, which account for approximately 50% of Ukrainian exports. The government’s response to the crisis has primarily been a reduction in the costs of financing the Donbas and an increase in the financial burden placed on the citizens and companies of Ukraine. No radical reforms which would encompass the entire system, including anti-corruption reforms, have been carried out to stop the embezzlement of state funds and to facilitate business activity. The reasons for not initiating reforms have included the lack of will to launch them, Ukraine’s traditionally slow pace of bureaucratic action and growing dissonance among the parties making up the parliamentary coalition. The few positive changes, including marketisation of energy prices and sustaining budgetary discipline (in the first quarter of 2015, budgetary revenues grew by 25%, though partly as a result of currency devaluation), are being carried out under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which is making the payment of further loan instalments to the tune of US$ 17.5 billion conditional upon reforms. Despite assistance granted by Western institutional donors and by individual states, the risk of Ukraine going bankrupt remains real. The issue of restructuring foreign debt worth US$ 15 billion has not been resolved, as foreign creditors who hold Ukrainian bonds have not consented to any partial cancellation of the debt. Whether Ukraine’s public finances can be stabilised will depend mainly on the situation in the east of the country and on the possible renewal of military action. It seems that the only way to rescue Ukraine’s public finances from deteriorating further is to continue to ‘freeze’ the conflict, to gradually implement wide-ranging reforms and to reach a consensus in negotiations with lenders.

Financial distress, financial constraint and investment decision: Evidence from Brazil

This paper analyses the presence of financial constraint in the investment decisions of 367 Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using a Bayesian econometric model with group-varying parameters. The motivation for this paper is the use of clustering techniques to group firms in a totally endogenous form. In order to classify the firms we used a hybrid clustering method, that is, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering techniques jointly. To estimate the parameters a Bayesian approach was considered. Prior distributions were assumed for the parameters, classifying the model in random or fixed effects. Ordinate predictive density criterion was used to select the model providing a better prediction. We tested thirty models and the better prediction considers the presence of 2 groups in the sample, assuming the fixed effect model with a Student t distribution with 20 degrees of freedom for the error. The results indicate robustness in the identification of financial constraint when the firms are classified by the clustering techniques. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sampled Control for Mean-Variance Hedging in a Jump Diffusion Financial Market

In this technical note we consider the mean-variance hedging problem of a jump diffusion continuous state space financial model with the re-balancing strategies for the hedging portfolio taken at discrete times, a situation that more closely reflects real market conditions. A direct expression based on some change of measures, not depending on any recursions, is derived for the optimal hedging strategy as well as for the ""fair hedging price"" considering any given payoff. For the case of a European call option these expressions can be evaluated in a closed form.