Evolution over time of heavy vehicle volume in toll roads: A dynamic panel data to identify key explanatory variables in Spain

Improving the knowledge of demand evolution over time is a key aspect in the evaluation of transport policies and in forecasting future investment needs. It becomes even more critical for the case of toll roads, which in recent decades has become an increasingly common device to fund road projects. However, literature regarding demand elasticity estimates in toll roads is sparse and leaves some important aspects to be analyzed in greater detail. In particular, previous research on traffic analysis does not often disaggregate heavy vehicle demand from the total volume, so that the specific behavioral patternsof this traffic segment are not taken into account. Furthermore, GDP is the main socioeconomic variable most commonly chosen to explain road freight traffic growth over time. This paper seeks to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of heavy vehicle demand in toll roads over time. To that end, we present a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables that explain the behavior of road freight traffic throughout the years. The results show that, despite the usual practice, GDP may not constitute a suitable explanatory variable for heavy vehicle demand. Rather, considering only the GDP of those sectors with a high impact on transport demand, such as construction or industry, leads to more consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990?2011 period. This is an interesting case in the international context, as road freight demand has experienced an even greater reduction in Spain than elsewhere, since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.

Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

End-of-life care in the critical care setting : nurses' practices and factors affecting these practices

Background: Critical care units are designed and resourced to save lives, yet the provision of end-of-life care is a significant component of nursing work in these settings. Limited research has investigated the actual practices of critical care nurses in the provision of end-of-life care, or the factors influencing these practices. To improve the care that patients at the end of life and their families receive, and to support nurses in the provision of this care, further research is needed. The purpose of this study was to identify critical care nurses' end-of-life care practices, the factors influencing the provision of end-of-life care and the factors associated with specific end-of-life care practices. Methods: A three-phase exploratory sequential mixed-methods design was utilised. Phase one used a qualitative approach involving interviews with a convenience sample of five intensive care nurses to identify their end-of-life care experiences and practices. In phase two, an online survey instrument was developed, based on a review of the literature and the findings of phase one. The survey instrument was reviewed by six content experts and pilot tested with a convenience sample of 28 critical care nurses (response rate 45%) enrolled in a postgraduate critical care nursing subject. The refined survey instrument was used in phase three of this study to conduct a national survey of critical care nurses. Descriptive analyses, exploratory factor analysis and univariate general linear modelling was undertaken on completed survey responses from 392 critical care nurses (response rate 25%). Results: Six end-of-life care practice areas were identified in this study: information sharing, environmental modification, emotional support, patient and family-centred decision making, symptom management and spiritual support. The items most frequently identified as always undertaken by critical care nurses in the provision of end-of-life care were from the information sharing and environmental modification practice areas. Items least frequently identified as always undertaken included items from the emotional support practice area. Eight factors influencing the provision of end-of-life care were identified: palliative values, patient and family preferences, knowledge, preparedness, organisational culture, resources, care planning, and emotional support for nurses. Strong agreement was noted with items reflecting values consistent with a palliative approach and inclusion of patient and family preferences. Variation was noted in agreement for items regarding opportunities for knowledge acquisition in the workplace and formal education, yet most respondents agreed that they felt adequately prepared. A context of nurse-led practice was identified, with variation in access to resources noted. Collegial support networks were identified as a source of emotional support for critical care nurses. Critical care nurses reporting values consistent with a palliative approach and/or those who scored higher on support for patient and family preferences were more likely to be engaged in end-of-life care practice areas identified in this study. Nurses who reported higher levels of preparedness and access to opportunities for knowledge acquisition were more likely to report engaging in interpersonal practices that supported patient and family centred decision making and emotional support of patients and their families. A negative relationship was identified between the explanatory variables of emotional support for nurses and death anxiety, and the patient and family centred decision making practice area. Contextual factors had a limited influence as explanatory variables of specific end-of-life care practice areas. Gender was identified as a significant explanatory variable in the emotional and spiritual support practice areas, with male gender associated with lower summated scores on these practice scales. Conclusions: Critical care nurses engage in practices to share control with and support inclusion of families experiencing death and dying. The most frequently identified end-of-life care practices were those that are easily implemented, practical strategies aimed at supporting the patient at the end of life and the patient's family. These practices arguably require less emotional engagement by the nurse. Critical care nurses' responses reflected values consistent with a palliative approach and a strong commitment to the inclusion of families in end-of-life care, and these factors were associated with engagement in all end-of-life care practice areas. Perceived preparedness or confidence with the provision of end-of-life care was associated with engagement in interpersonal caring practices. Critical care nurses autonomously engage in the provision of end-of-life care within the constraints of an environment designed for curative care and rely on their colleagues for emotional support. Critical care nurses must be adequately prepared and supported to provide comprehensive care in all areas of end-of-life care practice. The findings of this study raise important implications, and informed recommendations for practice, education and further research.

A continent-wide study reveals clear relationships between regional abiotic conditions and post-dispersal seed predation

Aim Large-scale patterns linking energy availability, biological productivity and diversity form a central focus of ecology. Despite evidence that the activity and abundance of animals may be limited by climatic variables associated with regional biological productivity (e.g. mean annual precipitation and annual actual evapotranspiration), it is unclear whether plant–granivore interactions are themselves influenced by these climatic factors across broad spatial extents. We evaluated whether climatic conditions that are known to alter the abundance and activity of granivorous animals also affect rates of seed removal. Location Eleven sites across temperate North America. Methods We used a common protocol to assess the removal of the same seed species (Avena sativa) over a 2-day period. Model selection via the Akaike information criterion was used to determine a set of candidate binomial generalized linear mixed models that evaluated the relationship between local climatic data and post-dispersal seed predation. Results Annual actual evapotranspiration was the single best predictor of the proportion of seeds removed. Annual actual evapotranspiration and mean annual precipitation were both positively related to mean seed removal and were included in four and three of the top five models, respectively. Annual temperature range was also positively related to seed removal and was an explanatory variable in three of the top four models. Main conclusions Our work provides the first evidence that energy and precipitation, which are known to affect consumer abundance and activity, also translate to strong, predictable patterns of seed predation across a continent. More generally, these findings suggest that future changes in temperature and precipitation could have widespread consequences for plant species composition in grasslands, through impacts on plant recruitment.

Rejected! The harmful effects of workgroup mistreatment and the moderating role of organisational norms

This program of research investigated the harmful effects of mistreatment by the workgroup, and the role of perceived rejection as a critical mediator linking mistreatment and outcomes. This research program had three primary purposes. First, the research aimed to examine the important role of workgroup mistreatment as an independent predictor of negative outcomes, over and above the influence of supervisor mistreatment. Second, the research aimed to examine the effect of perceived rejection as an explanatory variable linking workgroup mistreatment and outcomes. Finally, the moderating effect of organizational norms on the relationship between workgroup mistreatment and perceived rejection was examined. The relationships of interest were examined over four studies, using multiple methods of data collection, across part-time and full-time working samples. In Study 1 (Chapter 2), the independent role of workgroup mistreatment and the mediating role of perceived rejection were examined. One hundred and forty two part-time working participants took part in the study. The participants completed a questionnaire on workplace behaviors in their organizations. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed a strong harmful effect of workgroup mistreatment, independent of mistreatment by the supervisor. In addition, the results showed that perceived rejection fully mediated the relationship between workgroup mistreatment and depression and organizational based self esteem. The study highlighted that perceived rejection acts as a key underlying psychological mechanism involved in the effect of workgroup mistreatment. This study has been published in the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology. Study 2 and Study 3 were presented as one paper in Chapter 3. The aims of these two studies was to explore the effects of workgroup mistreatment on a wider range of individual and organizational level outcomes, and to provide further evidence of the mediating role of perceived rejection as observed in Study 1. The results from both studies demonstrated that workgroup mistreatment had a significant and independent role in predicting negative individual and organizational level outcomes, providing support for the findings of Study 1. In the first study, 189 participants received scenarios manipulating workgroup mistreatment and supervisor mistreatment. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed that workgroup mistreatment harmfully affected participants, over and above that of the supervisor. The results also demonstrated that perceived rejection mediated the positive relationships between workgroup mistreatment and depression and organizational deviance, and also the negative relationships between workgroup mistreatment and organizational based self esteem and organizational citizenship behaviors. The second study included an additional aim, to examine the moderating role of supportive organizational norms. Two hundred and twenty nine participants read scenarios that manipulated workgroup mistreatment, supervisor mistreatment and organizational norms. The results of hierarchical regression analyses revealed the significant harmful effects of workgroup mistreatment, over and above the influence of supervisor mistreatment. The results also revealed the mediating role of perceived rejection. The direct effect of positive organizational norms also emerged, consistent with previous research. In addition, the result revealed that employees who experienced supportive organizational norms were more likely to reconcile with their workgroup members after experiencing mistreatment compared to employees who experienced hostile organizational norms. Finally, an unexpected pattern on the key affective variables of depression and organizational based self esteem emerged, such that mistreatment led to more negative outcomes in the supportive norms condition than in the hostile condition, where employees appeared to be desensitized. This paper is currently under review at the Journal of Applied Social Psychology. In Study 4 (Chapter 4), the overall model of workplace mistreatment was tested on a sample of full-time workers in an applied setting. One hundred and seventy two adults took part in the study. Participants were required to evaluate their workplace regarding mistreatment and organizational norms and to report their own psychological, behavioral and organizational outcomes. The results revealed that workgroup mistreatment was associated with increased depression, stress and avoidance, over and above supervisor mistreatment. In addition, the results revealed that perceived rejection acted as an explanatory variable linking workgroup mistreatment to a number of outcomes. Furthermore, the moderating role of hostile organizational norms emerged on depression, stress, reconciliation and avoidance. This paper is currently under review at the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology. Overall, the four studies provided empirical support for the majority of the hypotheses. The effects were demonstrated for a range of psychological, behavioral, and organizational level outcomes, using multiple methods of data collection, across part-time and full-time workers. At the conclusion of the thesis (Chapter 5), an overall summary is provided of the findings across all four studies, practical and theoretical implications and research directions.

A Model to Estimate the Population Contributing to the Wastewater Using Samples Collected on Census Day

An important uncertainty when estimating per capita consumption of, for example, illicit drugs by means of wastewater analysis (sometimes referred to as “sewage epidemiology”) relates to the size and variability of the de facto population in the catchment of interest. In the absence of a day-specific direct population count any indirect surrogate model to estimate population size lacks a standard to assess associated uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect wastewater samples at a unique opportunity, that is, on a census day, as a basis for a model to estimate the number of people contributing to a given wastewater sample. Mass loads for a wide range of pharmaceuticals and personal care products were quantified in influents of ten sewage treatment plants (STP) serving populations ranging from approximately 3500 to 500 000 people. Separate linear models for population size were estimated with the mass loads of the different chemical as the explanatory variable: 14 chemicals showed good, linear relationships, with highest correlations for acesulfame and gabapentin. De facto population was then estimated through Bayesian inference, by updating the population size provided by STP staff (prior knowledge) with measured chemical mass loads. Cross validation showed that large populations can be estimated fairly accurately with a few chemical mass loads quantified from 24-h composite samples. In contrast, the prior knowledge for small population sizes cannot be improved substantially despite the information of multiple chemical mass loads. In the future, observations other than chemical mass loads may improve this deficit, since Bayesian inference allows including any kind of information relating to population size.

Estimating equations for parameters in stochastic growth models from tag-recapture data

James (1991, Biometrics 47, 1519-1530) constructed unbiased estimating functions for estimating the two parameters in the von Bertalanffy growth curve from tag-recapture data. This paper provides unbiased estimating functions for a class of growth models that incorporate stochastic components and explanatory variables. a simulation study using seasonal growth models indicates that the proposed method works well while the least-squares methods that are commonly used in the literature may produce substantially biased estimates. The proposed model and method are also applied to real data from tagged rack lobsters to assess the possible seasonal effect on growth.

Buffel grass in Queensland's semi-arid woodlands: response to local and landscape scale variables, and relationship with grass, forb and reptile species.

Buffel grass [Pennisetum ciliare (L.) Link] has been widely introduced in the Australian rangelands as a consequence of its value for productive grazing, but tends to competitively establish in non-target areas such as remnant vegetation. In this study, we examined the influence landscape-scale and local-scale variables had upon the distribution of buffel grass in remnant poplar box (Eucalyptus populnea F. Muell.) dominant woodland fragments in the Brigalow Bioregion, Queensland. Buffel grass and variables thought to influence its distribution in the region were measured at 60 sites, which were selected based on the amount of native woodland retained in the landscape and patch size. An information-theoretic modelling approach and hierarchical partitioning revealed that the most influential variable was the percent of retained vegetation within a 1-km spatial extent. From this, we identified a critical threshold of similar to 30% retained vegetation in the landscape, above which the model predicted buffel grass was not likely to occur in a woodland fragment. Other explanatory variables in the model were site based, and included litter cover and long-term rainfall. Given the paucity of information on the effect of buffel grass upon biodiversity values, we undertook exploratory analyses to determine whether buffel grass cover influenced the distribution of grass, forb and reptile species. We detected some trends; hierarchical partitioning revealed that buffel grass cover was the most important explanatory variable describing habitat preferences of four reptile species. However, establishing causal links - particularly between native grass and forb species and buffel grass - was problematic owing to possible confounding with grazing pressure. We conclude with a set of management recommendations aimed at reducing the spread of buffel grass into remnant woodlands.

Ratkaiseeko raha? : Tulospalkkiojärjestelmään ja työympäristöön liittyvien kokemusten yhteys esimiesten työtyytyväisyyteen ja työmotivaatioon

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between merit pay system and work environment and foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. There has been a lot of investigation on rewarding. Less research has been done on previous surveys among the merit pay systems and motivation investigations. According to former surveys, rewarding systems cannot be released from its context. Therefore this survey expanded to deal with work environment. It was also essential to investigate different dimensions of extrinsic and intrinsic motivation and equity of rewarding. Investigation or work motivation and work satisfaction was challenging because both of these concepts have been investigated under quite traditional frame of reference of work motivation theories. In some surveys, the concepts have not been even separated or they have been used even as synonyms. The data were collected with the 193 foremen working in the profit centers of the different chains of the company in the field of retail trade. The questions were: Are the experiences of merit pay system and work environment related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation? Are the backround variables related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation? The data collection was carried out by an electronic inquiry during May 2010. 137 replied from foremen working under merit pay system. The research material was analyzed with PASW-software. Various analyzing methods were used: factor analyses, regression analyses and group of different parametric and non-parametric analyses. In contrast to theoretical framework in the factor analyses work satisfaction and work motivation clustered into the same dimension. As a main result the atmosphere, possibilities to influence and the atmosphere of leading were strongly positively related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. According to regression analyses these factors were able to explain 55 % of the foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. The best explanatory variable was atmosphere. Instead, the backround variables (age, sex, working years, group of profession, education) were not associated with work satisfaction and work motivation.

Climate drivers for peatland palaeoclimate records

Reconstruction of hydroclimate variability is an important part of understanding natural climate change on decadal to millennial timescales. Peatland records reconstruct 'bog surface wetness' (BSW) changes, but it is unclear whether it is a relative dominance of precipitation or temperature that has driven these variations over Holocene timescales. Previously, correlations with instrumental climate data implied that precipitation is the dominant control. However, a recent chironomid inferred July temperature record suggested temperature changes were synchronous with BSW over the mid-late Holocene. This paper provides new analyses of these data to test competing hypotheses of climate controls on bog surface wetness and discusses some of the distal drivers of large-scale spatial patterns of BSW change. Using statistically based estimates of uncertainty in chronologies and proxy records, we show a correlation between Holocene summer temperature and BSW is plausible, but that chronologies are insufficiently precise to demonstrate this conclusively. Simulated summer moisture deficit changes for the last 6000 years forced by temperature alone are relatively small compared with observations over the 20th century. Instrumental records show that summer moisture deficit provides the best explanatory variable for measured water table changes and is more strongly correlated with precipitation than with temperature in both Estonia and the UK. We conclude that BSW is driven primarily by precipitation, reinforced by temperature, which is negatively correlated with precipitation and therefore usually forces summer moisture deficit in the same direction. In western Europe, BSW records are likely to be forced by changes in the strength and location of westerlies, linked to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and atmospheric circulation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Punitiveness and Political Culture: Notes from Some Small Countries

Green’s (2007, 2008, 2009) recent comparative work on child-on-child homicides in England and Norway has drawn attention to political-cultural explanations to account for differences in levels of state punitiveness. His work finds support for the distinction made by Arend Lijphart (1999) between consensus and majoritarian democracy, through his argument that English majoritarian political culture created powerful incentives to exploit the homicide of James Bulger in ways that were not present in Norway. Drawing on comparative research in Ireland, Scotland and New Zealand, this article joins with Green in enlisting political culture as an important explanatory variable yet challenges the usefulness of Lijphart’s typology in explaining penal difference.

Modelling trajectories through the educational system in North West England

The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and 'A'-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we find no evidence of any locality-level effects. Overall, none of the explanatory variables conventionally considered to affect educational attainment had a consistent effect across all three stages. Rather, each explanatory variable had a contingent effect at specific points within the overall trajectory of educational outcomes.

Relação entre despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações : análise da base de dados da OCDE 2012

RESUMO - Introdução: A despesa em saúde aumentou consideravelmente nas últimas décadas na maioria dos países industrializados. Por outro lado, os indicadores de saúde melhoraram. A evidência empírica sobre a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações tem sido inconclusiva. Este estudo aborda a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações através de dados agregados para 34 países para o período 1980-2010. Metodologia: Utilizou-se o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson para avaliar a correlação entre as variáveis explicativas e os indicadores de saúde. Procedeuse ainda à realização de uma regressão multivariada com dados em painel para cada indicador de saúde utilizado como variável dependente: esperança de vida à nascença e aos 65 anos para mulheres e homens, anos de vida potencialmente perdidos para mulheres e homens e mortalidade infantil. A principal variável explicativa utilizada foi a despesa em saúde, mas consideraram-se também vários fatores de confundimento, nomeadamente a riqueza, fatores estilo de vida, e oferta de cuidados. Resultados: A despesa per capita tem impacto nos indicadores de saúde mas ao adicionarmos a variável PIB per capita deixa de ser estatisticamente significativa. Outros fatores têm um impacto significativo para quase todos os indicadores de saúde utilizados: consumo de álcool e tabaco, gordura, o número de médicos e a imunização, confirmando vários resultados da literatura. Conclusão: Os resultados vão ao encontro de alguns estudos que afirmam o impacto marginal das despesas em saúde e do progresso da medicina nos resultados em saúde desde os anos 80 nos países industrializados.