Modelling trajectories through the educational system in North West England

The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and 'A'-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we find no evidence of any locality-level effects. Overall, none of the explanatory variables conventionally considered to affect educational attainment had a consistent effect across all three stages. Rather, each explanatory variable had a contingent effect at specific points within the overall trajectory of educational outcomes.