Alternative explanations of the volatility trend : Are they really that different?

We analyse the puzzling behavior of the volatility of individual stock returns around the turn of the Millennium. There has been much academic interest in this topic, but no convincing explanation has arisen. Our goal is to pull together the many competing explanations currently proposed in the literature to delermine which, if any, are capable of explaining the volatility trend. We find that many of the different explanations capture the same unusual trend around the Millennium. We find that many of the variables are very highly correlated and it is thus difficult to disentangle their relalive ability to exlplain the time-series behavior in volatility. It seems thai all of the variables that track average volatility well do so mainly by capturing changes in the post-1994 period. These variables have no time-series explanatory power in the pre-1995 years, questioning the underlying idea that any of the explanations currently plesented in the literature can track the trend in volatility over long periods.

Does feminism spoil girls? Explanations for official rises in female delinquency

Official rates of female delinquency have been rising steadily in countries such as Australia, England, Canada and the United States since the 1960s. They have also generally been rising at a rate faster than that for boys. As yet there is little consensus about the reasons for these rises or even whether such rate rises reflect any real increase in female delinquency at all. Against this backdrop of rising official crimes rates for young women, this article revisits the various criminological explanations for these trends.

Explanations of police racism

This paper describes the development of a substantive theory about police racism as the most significant factor, from among a number of competing societal based explanations, in accounting for Aboriginal over-representation in police arrest rates.

Comparing different explanations of the volatility trend

We analyze the puzzling behavior of the volatility of individual stock returns over the past few decades. The literature has provided many different explanations to the trend in volatility and this paper tests the viability of the different explanations. Virtually all current theoretical arguments that are provided for the trend in the average level of volatility over time lend themselves to explanations about the difference in volatility levels between firms in the cross-section. We therefore focus separately on the cross-sectional and time-series explanatory power of the different proxies. We fail to find a proxy that is able to explain both dimensions well. In particular, we find that Cao et al. [Cao, C., Simin, T.T., Zhao, J., 2008. Can growth options explain the trend in idiosyncratic risk? Review of Financial Studies 21, 2599–2633] market-to-book ratio tracks average volatility levels well, but has no cross-sectional explanatory power. On the other hand, the low-price proxy suggested by Brandt et al. [Brandt, M.W., Brav, A., Graham, J.R., Kumar, A., 2010. The idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: time trend or speculative episodes. Review of Financial Studies 23, 863–899] has much cross-sectional explanatory power, but has virtually no time-series explanatory power. We also find that the different proxies do not explain the trend in volatility in the period prior to 1995 (R-squared of virtually zero), but explain rather well the trend in volatility at the turn of the Millennium (1995–2005).

Everyone's problem but nobody's job : staff perceptions and explanations for poor nutritional intake in older medical patients

Aim: Up to 60% of older medical patients are malnourished with further decline during hospital stay. There is limited evidence for effective nutrition intervention. Staff focus groups were conducted to improve understanding of potential contextual and cultural barriers to feeding older adults in hospital. Methods: Three focus groups involved 22 staff working on the acute medical wards of a large tertiary teaching hospital. Staff disciplines were nursing, dietetics, speech pathology, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, pharmacy. A semistructured topic guide was used by the same facilitator to prompt discussions on hospital nutrition care including barriers. Focus groups were tape-recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Results: All staff recognised malnutrition to be an important problem in older patients during hospital stay and identified patient-level barriers to nutrition care such as non-compliance to feeding plans and hospital-level barriers including nursing staff shortages. Differences between disciplines revealed a lack of a coordinated approach, including poor knowledge of nutrition care processes, poor interdisciplinary communication, and a lack of a sense of shared responsibility/coordinated approach to nutrition care. All staff talked about competing activities at meal times and felt disempowered to prioritise nutrition in the acute medical setting. Staff agreed education and ‘extra hands’ would address most barriers but did not consider organisational change. Conclusions: Redesigning the model of care to reprioritise meal-time activities and redefine multidisciplinary roles and responsibilities would support coordinated nutrition care. However, effectiveness may also depend on hospitalwide leadership and support to empower staff and increase accountability within a team-led approach.

Physical activity parenting measurement and research : challenges, explanations, and solutions

Physical activity (PA) parenting research has proliferated over the past decade, with findings verifying the influential role that parents play in children's emerging PA behaviors. This knowledge, however, has not translated into effective family-based PA interventions. During a preconference workshop to the 2012 International Society for Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity annual meeting, a PA parenting workgroup met to: (1) Discuss challenges in PA parenting research that may limit its translation, (2) identify explanations or reasons for such challenges, and; (3) recommend strategies for future research. Challenges discussed by the workgroup included a proliferation of disconnected and inconsistently measured constructs, a limited understanding of the dimensions of PA parenting, and a narrow conceptualization of hypothesized moderators of the relationship between PA parenting and child PA. Potential reasons for such challenges emphasized by the group included a disinclination to employ theory when developing measures and examining predictors and outcomes of PA parenting as well as a lack of agreed-upon measurement standards. Suggested solutions focused on the need to link PA parenting research with general parenting research, define and adopt rigorous standards of measurement, and identify new methods to assess PA parenting. As an initial step toward implementing these recommendations, the workgroup developed a conceptual model that: (1) Integrates parenting dimensions from the general parenting literature into the conceptualization of PA parenting, (2) draws on behavioral and developmental theory, and; (3) emphasizes areas which have been neglected to date including precursors to PA parenting and effect modifiers.

A qualitative exploration of young Australian adults’ understanding of and explanations for alcohol-involved rape

Little is known about the beliefs that underlie the biased attributions that typically characterise people’s perceptions of intoxicated sexual perpetrators and their victims. Guided by consensual qualitative research, we explored young Australian adults’ (18-25 years; N = 15) attributions for an alcohol-involved rape based on focus groups and interviews. Prominent themes indicated that participants rarely labelled the assault as rape and, instead, adhered to miscommunication explanations. Participants emphasised the developmental value of the victimisation experience although recognising its harmful consequences. Both perpetrator and victim were held strongly responsible based on perceived opportunities to prevent the assault but implicit justifications were, nevertheless, evident. As such, explicit and implicit attributions were contradictory, with the latter reflecting the attributional double standard previously observed in quantitative rape-perception research. Findings underscore the need to challenge pervasive rape myths and equip young adults with knowledge on how to respond supportively to the commonly stigmatised victims of rape.

Society by Numbers : Studies on Model-Based Explanations in the Social Sciences

The aim of this dissertation is to provide conceptual tools for the social scientist for clarifying, evaluating and comparing explanations of social phenomena based on formal mathematical models. The focus is on relatively simple theoretical models and simulations, not statistical models. These studies apply a theory of explanation according to which explanation is about tracing objective relations of dependence, knowledge of which enables answers to contrastive why and how-questions. This theory is developed further by delineating criteria for evaluating competing explanations and by applying the theory to social scientific modelling practices and to the key concepts of equilibrium and mechanism. The dissertation is comprised of an introductory essay and six published original research articles. The main theses about model-based explanations in the social sciences argued for in the articles are the following. 1) The concept of explanatory power, often used to argue for the superiority of one explanation over another, compasses five dimensions which are partially independent and involve some systematic trade-offs. 2) All equilibrium explanations do not causally explain the obtaining of the end equilibrium state with the multiple possible initial states. Instead, they often constitutively explain the macro property of the system with the micro properties of the parts (together with their organization). 3) There is an important ambivalence in the concept mechanism used in many model-based explanations and this difference corresponds to a difference between two alternative research heuristics. 4) Whether unrealistic assumptions in a model (such as a rational choice model) are detrimental to an explanation provided by the model depends on whether the representation of the explanatory dependency in the model is itself dependent on the particular unrealistic assumptions. Thus evaluating whether a literally false assumption in a model is problematic requires specifying exactly what is supposed to be explained and by what. 5) The question of whether an explanatory relationship depends on particular false assumptions can be explored with the process of derivational robustness analysis and the importance of robustness analysis accounts for some of the puzzling features of the tradition of model-building in economics. 6) The fact that economists have been relatively reluctant to use true agent-based simulations to formulate explanations can partially be explained by the specific ideal of scientific understanding implicit in the practise of orthodox economics.

Trends and Explanations for Socioeconomic Differences in Physical Activity

Very limited scientific knowledge exists on the trends and explanations of socioeconomic differences in physical activity among adults. There is a paucity of studies examining whether determinants vary across socioeconomic position and different life stages. This study examines a) how socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity have changed in Finland from 1978 to 2002 and b) the contribution of childhood socioeconomic position, adolescence sports and exercise, adulthood socioeconomic position, working conditions and other adulthood health behaviours to socioeconomic differences in leisure-time physical activity. This study utilised three population-based datasets collected by the National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL, formerly National Institute for Public Health): the Health Behaviour and Health among the Finnish Adult Population Study from 1978 to 2002 (N=96 105), the National FINRISK Study 2002 and its physical activity sub-study (N= 9 179), and the Health 2000 Study (N=8 028). Survey information was collected by self-administered questionnaires, interviews at home, and measurements made at the study site. The response rates varied from 69 to 89 per cent. Several socioeconomic measures were linked from the national population registers. Based on the results, those with low income were physically inactive during leisure-time and while commuting from 1978 to 2002. Manual worker women, however, were more physically active commuters compared to their counterparts. Parental socioeconomic position contributed directly to adulthood educational differences in leisure-time physical inactivity but also indirectly through adulthood socioeconomic position (occupation, household income) and other unhealthy behaviours (mainly smoking). Among those with low education participation in competitive sports in youth and among those with high education exercise in late adolescence contributed to leisure-time physical activity in adulthood. Long exposure to physically strenuous working conditions in men and current job strain in women contributed to occupational class differences in leisure-time physical activity. Socioeconomic differences in physical activity have remained similar for twenty years in Finland. Educational career seems to have a strong contribution to physical activity. To adopt a lifelong physically active life-style, one should participate in a range of different sports and exercise in adolescence and in youth, have a low exposure to physically and mentally strenuous working conditions in later life and have other healthy behaviours in later life.

Multiple socioeconomic circumstances and health : associations and explanations among Finnish and British public sector employees

Socioeconomic health inequalities have been widely documented, with a lower social position being associated with poorer physical and general health and higher mortality. For mental health the results have been more varied. However, the mechanisms by which the various dimensions of socioeconomic circumstances are associated with different domains of health are not yet fully understood. This is related to a lack of studies tackling the interrelations and pathways between multiple dimensions of socioeconomic circumstances and domains of health. In particular, evidence from comparative studies of populations from different national contexts that consider the complexity of the causes of socioeconomic health inequalities is needed. The aim of this study was to examine the associations of multiple socioeconomic circumstances with physical and mental health, more specifically physical functioning and common mental disorders. This was done in a comparative setting of two cohorts of white-collar public sector employees, one from Finland and one from Britain. The study also sought to find explanations for the observed associations between economic difficulties and health by analysing the contribution of health behaviours, living arrangements and work-family conflicts. The survey data were derived from the Finnish Helsinki Health Study baseline surveys in 2000-2002 among the City of Helsinki employees aged 40-60 years, and from the fifth phase of the London-based Whitehall II study (1997-9) which is a prospective study of civil servants aged 35-55 years at the time of recruitment. The data collection in the two countries was harmonised to safeguard maximal comparability. Physical functioning was measured with the Short Form (SF-36) physical component summary and common mental disorders with the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Socioeconomic circumstances were parental education, childhood economic difficulties, own education, occupational class, household income, housing tenure, and current economic difficulties. Further explanatory factors were health behaviours, living arrangements and work-family conflicts. The main statistical method used was logistic regression analysis. Analyses were conducted separately for the two sexes and two cohorts. Childhood and current economic difficulties were associated with poorer physical functioning and common mental disorders generally in both cohorts and sexes. Conventional dimensions of socioeconomic circumstances i.e. education, occupational class and income were associated with physical functioning and mediated each other’s effects, but in different ways in the two cohorts: education was more important in Helsinki and occupational class in London. The associations of economic difficulties with health were partly explained by work-family conflicts and other socioeconomic circumstances in both cohorts and sexes. In conclusion, this study on two country-specific cohorts confirms that different dimensions of socioeconomic circumstances are related but not interchangeable. They are also somewhat differently associated with physical and mental domains of health. In addition to conventionally measured dimensions of past and present socioeconomic circumstances, economic difficulties should be taken into account in studies and attempts to reduce health inequalities. Further explanatory factors, particularly conflicts between work and family, should also be considered when aiming to reduce inequalities and maintain the health of employees.

Explanations of the general sketches of settlements on the Chonhar peninsula

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New lads or ladettes? A critique of current theoretical explanations for young women’s violence proliferated over social media

Current theoretical explanations for young women’s violence examine physical violence as a masculine behaviour. This means that young women are constructed as rejecting elements of their femininity in favour of masculine behaviours in order to perform violence in an acceptable way, which results in them being constructed as violent femmes, new lads or ladettes. Alternatively, theoretical explanations construct young women as adhering to a feminine gender performance when avoiding physical violence, or engaging what are traditionally considered to be feminine characteristics of aggression. This paper critiques existing theoretical approaches applied to young women’s violence, by drawing on empirical research that examined young women’s physical altercations proliferated through social media. Preliminary research findings illustrate how continuing to construct young women’s violence through a gendered paradigm offers inadequate explanations for what young women’s violence actually entails. It concludes by suggesting how young women’s violence may be more adequately explained using a theoretical framework of embodying gender that moves away from gender dichotomies and constructs violence as a series of bodily practices.

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This paper examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left-right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. However, spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the United States. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia’s stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.