On the characterisation and measurement of the welfare effects of income mobility from an ex-ante perspective

The paper employs a rank-dependent formulation of the social welfare function with time-separable utilities to evaluate the economic consequences of income mobility from an ex-ante perspective. The resultant class of measures can be decomposed not only in terms of structural and exchange mobility but also in terms of vertical and horizontal mobility, thereby encompassing two of the main approaches in the literature. We illustrate our measurement framework by comparing mobility in the USA and Germany using data from the Cross-National Equivalent File 1980-2005. We find that the pattern of income mobility in the USA was both less pro-poor and more horizontally inequitable than in Germany, but that the latter did not translate into higher levels of exchange mobility given higher levels of absolute inequality and the vertical stance of the growth process.

Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Insider trading, investment, and liquidity: a welfare analysis

We compare competitive equilibrium outcomes with and without trading by a privately infonned "monopolistic" insider, in a model with real investment portfolio choices ex ante, and noise trading generated by aggregate uncertainty regarding other agents' intertemporal consumption preferences. The welfare implications of insider trading for the ex ante expected utilities of outsiders are analyzed. The role of interim infonnation revelation due to insider trading, in improving the risk-sharing among outsiders with stochastic liquidity needs, is examined in detaiL

Ex-ante evaluation by the media of the Guimarães 2012 European Capital of Culture

The nomination of Guimarães to host the 2012 European Capital of Culture (ECC) has put on the agenda of the city the need of measuring the effects that the implementation of this mega event could have in it and in the municipality a whole. The balance of the benefits and costs and an extended community involvement tend to reduce negative impacts and enhance positive ones. This chapter analyzes the involvement of population and local associations in the planning and organization of the 2012 Guimarães European Capital of Culture, using the coverage made during 2011 by local and national press of the mega event. A content analysis of the news published covering the period between January and December 2011 and using three newspapers was conducted. From those, two were local and weekly newspapers and one was a national daily one. Looking to data results, it can be concluded that it was poor the community involvement and, also, the one of the cultural associations in the organizations of the 2012 ECC. A strong negative reaction to the model choose to plan the mega event conducted by official organizers was found, which has cast doubts on the desirable participation of the residents and, consequently, on the success of the mega event, especially in a perspective of a medium and long term effects.

Ex-ante evaluation by the media of the Guimarães 2012 European Capital of Culture

The nomination of Guimarães to host the 2012 European Capital of Culture (ECC) has put on the agenda of the city the need of measuring the effects that the implementation of this mega event could have in it and in the municipality a whole. The balance of the benefits and costs and an extended community involvement tend to reduce negative impacts and enhance positive ones. This chapter analyzes the involvement of population and local associations in the planning and organization of the 2012 Guimarães European Capital of Culture, using the coverage made during 2011 by local and national press of the mega event. A content analysis of the news published covering the period between January and December 2011 and using three newspapers was conducted. From those, two were local and weekly newspapers and one was a national daily one. Looking to data results, it can be concluded that it was poor the community involvement and, also, the one of the cultural associations in the organizations of the 2012 ECC. A strong negative reaction to the model choose to plan the mega event conducted by official organizers was found, which has cast doubts on the desirable participation of the residents and, consequently, on the success of the mega event, especially in a perspective of a medium and long term effects.

An ex-ante evaluation of the economic impact of Bt cotton adoption by spanish farmers facing the EU cotton sector reform

Cotton production in the European Union (EU) is limited to areas of Greece and Southern Spain (Andalusia). The 2004 reform of the EU cotton policy severely affected the profitability of the crop. In this article we analyze how the introduction of genetically modified (GM), insect-resistant cotton varieties (Bt cotton) might help EU cotton farmers to increase profitability and therefore face the cotton policy reform. We first study farmers’ attitudes toward adoption of Bt cotton varieties through a survey conducted in Andalusia (Southern Spain). The results show a positive attitude of Andalusian cotton farmers toward the Bt cotton varieties. Second, we perform an ex-ante analysis of the effects of introducing Bt cotton in Andalusia. Finally, we integrate the analysis of the effects of Bt cotton with the analysis of the EU cotton reform. Our results show that despite the significant economic benefits of Bt cotton, the current policy reform is likely to jeopardize the profitability of cotton production in the EU.

Uma avaliação ex-ante do impacto sobre a capacidade tecnológica da localidade acolhedora das empresas que aderiram ao regime automotivo brasileiro e os seus desdobramentos estaduais : o caso da instalação da General Motors do Brasil em Gravataí, Rio Grande do Sul

Esta tese discute três temas: políticas públicas, gestão tecnológica, e setor automotivo. Tendo por objetivo abreviar o ciclo de absorção e desenvolvimento de tecnologia, um volume expressivo de recursos tem sido transferido do setor público para o setor privado através do que é denominado de Política Pública Indutora (PPI). Os governos pretendem, assim, atrair aquelas empresas tecnologicamente mais capacitadas, na expectativa de que transfiram para a localidade onde se instalam o conhecimento que detêm. No Brasil, um dos setores-alvo deste tipo de política tem sido o automotivo, circunstância observada em diferentes momentos da história. Efetivamente, o Regime Automotivo Brasileiro pretende não apenas acelerar o desenvolvimento do país, mas também promover uma significativa transferência de tecnologia. A análise das PPI, por ser de extrema importância, é bastante influenciada e dificultada quer por seus defensores, quer por seus destratores, que as veêm sob os aspectos de sucesso ou não; mas, não bastasse essa dificuldade, há também o elevado conteúdo ideológico que sustenta as argumentações, que faz com que a avaliação se perca num quadro inconclusivo. Afinal, estas iniciativas são benéficas ou não para o país e para as economias regionais? Finalmente, a eficácia, e portanto o acerto desta estratégia só pode ser avaliado expost facto, quando já comprometidos, quiçá irremediavelmente, os recursos públicos. Por essa razão, este estudo desenvolve uma análise ex-ante das políticas públicas do tipo indutoras, fazendo uso de um modelo compreensivo que permite uma análise longitudinal, captando assim, as mudanças no ambiente. Entre outras, procurou-se responder à seguinte questão: é possível, hoje, inferir quanto à contrib uição, se positiva ou negativa, que o Regime Automotivo Brasileiro e os seus desdobramentos estaduais trarão à capacidade tecnológica no entorno da empresa atraída? O problema e a questão de pesquisa foram abordados, predominantemente, sob um enfoque qualitativo, e o método escolhido foi o estudo de caso. Com o auxílio do modelo proposto foi analisada e avaliada a potencialidade de aumento na capacidade tecnológica induzida pela instalação da unidade montadora da General Motors do Brasil, em Gravataí, Rio Grande do Sul. Ao final conclui- se que os benefícios previstos pelo Regime Automotivo Brasileiro, no que diz respeito a capacitação tecnológica local, dificilmente serão atingidos pela instalação de novas empresas automotivas ou a modernização das existentes.

Ex Ante Cost Benefit Analyses of Community-Based DRR Interventions in the Caribbean

This report presents a study on the cost benefit analyses (CBA) and cost effectiveness analysis (CEA) of community-based disaster risk reduction (DRR) interventions in the Caribbean. The DRR interventions, implemented by the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC), Port of Spain, in three Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Antigua & Barbuda, and Suriname, comprised the pilot phase of the Red Cross (RC) Project, Improving Climate Change Resilience of Caribbean Communities. This study is part of the endeavor by the DRR Program of Florida International University (FIU) and the United States Agency for International Development’s Office of the U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) to develop and foster DRR measures in the Latin American and Caribbean region since 2008.

Avaliação ex-ante, pelos media, de Guimarães 2012 capital europeia da Cultura

A nomeação de Guimarães como Capital Europeia da Cultura (CEC) em 2012 veio colocar na ordem do dia a necessidade de medir os efeitos que a concretização deste megaevento irá provocar na cidade e no município. A conveniente ponderação dos benefícios e dos custos e um alargado envolvimento da comunidade tendem a permitir encontrar formas de reduzir os impactos negativos e aumentar os impactos positivos. A presente comunicação analisa o envolvimento da população e das associações locais no planeamento e organização da Capital Europeia da Cultura 2012, aproximados pela via da cobertura feita pela imprensa local e nacional à preparação do megaevento. A análise de conteúdo das notícias publicadas abrangeu o período que medeia entre Janeiro e Dezembro de 2011 e respeitou a dois semanários locais e um diário nacional. Com base na análise efetuada, pode concluir-se que foi fraco o envolvimento da população e dos agentes culturais na organização da CEC 2012 e que existiu uma forte reação negativa ao modelo de planeamento do megaevento conduzido pela estrutura organizadora oficial, o que veio pôr em causa a desejável adesão dos vimaranenses ao mesmo e, por essa via, o respetivo sucesso, sobretudo numa perspetiva de efeitos a médio e longo prazo.

Perceptions of residents of hosting the “Guimarães 2012 European Capital of Culture”: An ex-ante approach

The European Capital of Culture is an annual mega-event, which can provide a good forum though which to challenge and engage local citizens, thus generating feelings of common citizenship. In addition, it presents an ideal opportunity to promote the restructuring of the hosting urban space. However, the success of both the organization and the city that hosts the cultural event depends on the residents’ commitment towards it, the consistency of the tourism attractions and activities supplied, and the capacity of anticipating and monitoring the evolution of tourists’ preferences. The present study aims to assess the intention to participate and the impacts perceived by residents of Guimarães from hosting one of the 2012 European Capitals of Culture (2012 ECOC) in the ex-ante period (2011). Through a convenience sample of 471 usable surveys applied to the local population, conducted between October and December 2011, we tried to identify some of these potential impacts. According to the results received, 40% of residents had a low or very low knowledge of the cultural program, although only 11% demonstrated no intention of attending any activity during the event. The comparison of the mean scores of the expected 2012 ECOC impacts by gender reveals that the most valued and least valued factors are common to female and male respondents. With regard to the differences between those that intended to attend the event and the ones that did not, expected participants rated positive and negative impact factors more than did the ones that did not intend to attend.

Perceptions of residents of hosting the “Guimarães 2012 European Capital of Culture”: an ex-ante approach

The European Capital of Culture is an annual mega-event, which can provide a good forum though which to challenge and engage local citizens, thus generating feelings of common citizenship. In addition, it presents an ideal opportunity to promote the restructuring of the hosting urban space. However, the success of both the organization and the city that hosts the cultural event depends on the residents’ commitment towards it, the consistency of the tourism attractions and activities supplied, and the capacity of anticipating and monitoring the evolution of tourists’ preferences. The present study aims to assess the intention to participate and the impacts perceived by residents of Guimarães from hosting one of the 2012 European Capitals of Culture (2012 ECOC) in the ex-ante period (2011). Through a convenience sample of 471 usable surveys applied to the local population, conducted between October and December 2011, we tried to identify some of these potential impacts. According to the results received, 40% of residents had a low or very low knowledge of the cultural program, although only 11% demonstrated no intention of attending any activity during the event. The comparison of the mean scores of the expected 2012 ECOC impacts by gender reveals that the most valued and least valued factors are common to female and male respondents. With regard to the differences between those that intended to attend the event and the ones that did not, expected participants rated positive and negative impact factors more than did the ones that did not intend to attend.

Plano de Fortalecimento da Gestão do Turismo (PFGT): uma avaliação ex ante no município de Nísia Floresta (RN)

Atualmente, o Plano de Desenvolvimento do Turismo (Prodetur) vem procurando fortalecer institucionalmente os destinos turísticos, a fim de garantir a ampliação e a continuidade das melhorias estruturais já realizadas quando da primeira fase do programa governamental, e ao mesmo tempo dotar os municípios de uma gestão pública mais eficiente, em que deverá também considerar o turismo como o eixo central na formulação e gerenciamento das políticas públicas municipais com foco no desenvolvimento local. Para tanto, o Prodetur lançou, no Rio Grande do Norte, o Plano de Fortalecimento da Gestão do Turismo, do Patrimônio Natural e Cultural em 2009. A pesquisa objetiva avaliar, de forma ex ante, a viabilidade da implementação do referido plano governamental no município de Nísia Floresta (RN). Adotaram-se as seis dimensões do modelo teórico de Draibe (2001) conjugadas com o modelo de Neves (1996) para conduzir a pesquisa. Metodologicamente, optou-se por uma abordagem qualitativa, na qual foram buscadas análises de documentos como o diagnóstico estratégico, o plano de ação proposto e realização de entrevistas semiestruturadas com alguns secretários municipais. Usou-se a análise de conteúdo como técnica de tratamento dos conteúdos das entrevistas e foram feitas observações não participantes. Assim foi possível desenhar a pesquisa avaliativa, caracterizando o momento administrativo e político atual e como esse desenho poderia interferir na implementação do plano avaliado. Conclui-se que o município não apresenta condições institucionais suficientes para a implementação do Plano Governamental financiado com recursos federais.

Welfare analysis of regulating mobile termination rates in the UK with an application to the Orange/T-Mobile merger

We present a calibrated model of the UK mobile telephony market with four mobile networks; calls to and from the fixed network; network-based price discrimination; and call externalities. Our results show that reducing mobile termination rates broadly in line with the recent European Commission Recommendation to either pure long-run incremental cost ; reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks; or Bill & Keep (i.e. zero termination rates), increases social welfare, consumer surplus and networks profits. Depending on the strength of call externalities, social welfare may increase by as much as £ 990 million to £ 4.5 billion per year, with Bill & Keep leading to the highest increase in welfare. We also apply the model to estimate the welfare effects of the 2010 merger between Orange and T-Mobile under different scenarios concerning MTRs, and predict that consumer surplus decreases strongly.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.