Power Study on Testing Epidemic Alternatives

Detecting change points in epidemic models has been studied by many scholars. Yao (1993) summarized five existing test statistics in the literature. Out of those test statistics, it was observed that the likelihood ratio statistic showed its standout power. However, all of the existing test statistics are based on an assumption that population variance is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in practice. To avoid assuming known population variance, a new test statistic for detecting epidemic models is studied in this thesis. The new test statistic is a parameter-free test statistic which is more powerful compared to the existing test statistics. Different sample sizes and lengths of epidemic durations are used for the power comparison purpose. Monte Carlo simulation is used to find the critical values of the new test statistic and to perform the power comparison. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation result, it can be concluded that the sample size and the length of the duration have some effect on the power of the tests. It can also be observed that the new test statistic studied in this thesis has higher power than the existing test statistics do in all of cases.

Walking the Coleridge Way : using cultural tourism to change perceptions of Somerset after the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001

This paper explores one of the ways in which the Somerset region in the United Kingdom, devastated by the foot and mouth epidemic in 2001, is trying to free itself from recurring negative representations and create more positive images of the area. After the epidemic projects were sought that would promote a more positive image and draw tourists back to the area. One of these projects drew on literary tourism to reinvigorate the site. A Walking and Bridle trail called the ‘Coleridge Way Walk’ has been implemented to take the images of the area from ones of disease and dirtiness to ones of Romantic longing. The Coleridge Way Walk uses past imaginings to re-energise the area. This energy, in part, comes from ‘re-imagining’ the site through past imaginings. The Coleridge Way Walk uses the past to create future direction for the once tainted area.

An epidemic of pain in an Australian radiology practice

This paper presents findings from a study of an organisationally mandated assimilation process of an enterprise-wide information system in a radiology practice in Australia. A number of interviews with radiologists, radiographers and administrative staff are used to explore the impact of institutional structures on the assimilation process. The case study develops an argument that culture within and outside the Australian Radiology Practice (ARP), social structures within the ARP and organisational-level management mandates have impacted on the assimilation process. The study develops a theoretical framework that integrates elements of social actor theory (Lamb & Kling, 2003) to provide a more fine-grained analysis concentrating on the relationship among the radiology practitioners, the technology (an enterprise-wide Health Information System) and a larger social milieu surrounding its use. This study offers several theoretical and practical implications for technology assimilation in the health and radiology industry regarding the important roles social interactions, individual self-perceptions, organisational mandates and policies can play in assimilating new ICTs.

Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

The high road or the low road? Alternatives for Australia's future

The OECD suggests that countries now have a choice. They can focus on development based on either:  competition via investment in technology and innovation - which is important in high knowledge industries and high innovation economies, or  competition via exchange rates and wages - which is important in industries producing standardised, lower-tech goods and services. The first route will maximise higher-skilled, higher-paid employment growth and living standards. Given the lack of control over the exchange rate, the second route requires competition based on wages. It is essential to understand that markets themselves won’t shift a country from one path to the other. These conclusions arise from the OECD’s recognition that technical progress - the creation of new products or the adoption of more efficient methods of production - is the main source of economic growth and enhanced quality of life. Technological change is, the OECD suggests, ...also the engine for job creation as higher wages and profits resulting from technology-induced productivity gains and lower prices lead to increased demand for new products from existing as well as new industries (1997: 4).Further, Competitiveness in high-technology industries is mainly driven by technology factors and much less by wage and exchange rate movements, while the reverse is true in low-technology industries (OECD 1996e: 12). The OECD has shown that sound macroeconomic conditions, such as the low inflation and reduced public sector debt visible in almost all member countries in the 1990s, are not enough to deal with high levels of unemployment and the need to increase levels of income: If economic performance is to improve, additional structural reform, which can increase innovation and the diffusion of technologies within and among national economies, seems necessary (OECD 1997: 4 Emphasis added).

Summary report : the high road or the low road? Alternatives for Australia's future

This document is a summary of the findings of the inaugural study commissioned by the Australian Business Foundation Limited. It was conducted by Professor Jane Marceau, Pro-Vice Chancellor (Research) at the University of Western Sydney Macarthur, Dr Karen Manley, Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Western Sydney Macarthur and Mr Derek Sicklen, Managing Director of Australian Economic Analysis Pty Limited. The full report is available from the Australian Business Foundation. The Australian Business Foundation Limited is a recently formed independent economic and industry policy think-tank. It has been established and sponsored by Australian Business Limited, a pre-eminent and long-standing industry association and business services network. The report is in three parts. The first reviews the key findings of contemporary international economic and innovation-oriented analyses of the characteristics of high growth economies. The second assesses the shape, structure and dynamics of Australian industry as these compare with the characteristics for successful economic development suggested in the literature. Finally, the report indicates the nature of urgently required policy directions.

The role of academic community in higher learning : Alternatives to a drive-thru education

The purpose of our paper is to illustrate the fundamental importance of developing academic community among first year students. We argue that a sense of academic community is of fundamental importance in combating the effects of the neo-liberal economic discourse on higher education, and that the values of higher education are incongruent with those of economic rationalism. The discursive commodification of the student, and of education itself, works against the formation of community, both within the university environment and in the wider society. We argue that, at present, the dominant discourse shaping the social practice of higher education is that of neo-liberal economics. Community values stand in opposition to the dominant discourse, and are integral to the long-term survival of a socially critical and socially responsive society. We conclude that the importance of establishing a sense of academic community during the first year of university is justified by its ultimate value to society.

Alternatives to the behavioural technicist approaches to study skills

The content and approach of study skills courses are critiqued and alternatives are suggested. It is proposed that an approach providing students with knowledge about the cognitive processes involved in mastering complex material would make the study skills teacher an agent of social change aiming for the enlightenment and emancipation of students and lecturers.

Alternatives to youth imprisonment : evaluating the Victorian youth attendance order

On 22 June 1988 the then Minister for Community Services Victoria, Race Matthews, officially launched the Youth Attendance Order (YAO), a high tariff alternative for young offenders aged between 15 and 18 years who were facing a term of detention. Throughout the order's gestation, much debate occurred about the impact it would have on rates of juvenile incarceration as well as about the potential ‘net widening’ effect it could have on less serious offenders. In May 1994 the National Centre For Socio-Legal Studies at La Trobe University submitted its report evaluating the Victorian Youth Attendance Order. This article presents some of the major findings of that report and examines the future options for this high tariff order in juvenile justice