Random propagation in complex systems : nonlinear matrix recursions and epidemic spread

This dissertation studies long-term behavior of random Riccati recursions and mathematical epidemic model. Riccati recursions are derived from Kalman filtering. The error covariance matrix of Kalman filtering satisfies Riccati recursions. Convergence condition of time-invariant Riccati recursions are well-studied by researchers. We focus on time-varying case, and assume that regressor matrix is random and identical and independently distributed according to given distribution whose probability distribution function is continuous, supported on whole space, and decaying faster than any polynomial. We study the geometric convergence of the probability distribution. We also study the global dynamics of the epidemic spread over complex networks for various models. For instance, in the discrete-time Markov chain model, each node is either healthy or infected at any given time. In this setting, the number of the state increases exponentially as the size of the network increases. The Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution where all the nodes are healthy with probability 1. Since the probability distribution of Markov chain defined on finite state converges to the stationary distribution, this Markov chain model concludes that epidemic disease dies out after long enough time. To analyze the Markov chain model, we study nonlinear epidemic model whose state at any given time is the vector obtained from the marginal probability of infection of each node in the network at that time. Convergence to the origin in the epidemic map implies the extinction of epidemics. The nonlinear model is upper-bounded by linearizing the model at the origin. As a result, the origin is the globally stable unique fixed point of the nonlinear model if the linear upper bound is stable. The nonlinear model has a second fixed point when the linear upper bound is unstable. We work on stability analysis of the second fixed point for both discrete-time and continuous-time models. Returning back to the Markov chain model, we claim that the stability of linear upper bound for nonlinear model is strongly related with the extinction time of the Markov chain. We show that stable linear upper bound is sufficient condition of fast extinction and the probability of survival is bounded by nonlinear epidemic map.

Synthesis and biological activity of anticoagulant heparan sulfate glycopolymers

Heparin has been used as an anticoagulant drug for more than 70 years. The global distribution of contaminated heparin in 2007, which resulted in adverse clinical effects and over 100 deaths, emphasizes the necessity for safer alternatives to animal-sourced heparin. The structural complexity and heterogeneity of animal-sourced heparin not only impedes safe access to these biologically active molecules, but also hinders investigations on the significance of structural constituents at a molecular level. Efficient methods for preparing new synthetic heparins with targeted biological activity are necessary not only to ensure clinical safety, but to optimize derivative design to minimize potential side effects. Low molecular weight heparins have become a reliable alternative to heparin, due to their predictable dosages, long half-lives, and reduced side effects. However, heparin oligosaccharide synthesis is a challenging endeavor due to the necessity for complex protecting group manipulation and stereoselective glycosidic linkage chemistry, which often result in lengthy synthetic routes and low yields. Recently, chemoenzymatic syntheses have produced targeted ultralow molecular weight heparins with high-efficiency, but continue to be restricted by the substrate specificities of enzymes.

To address the need for access to homogeneous, complex glycosaminoglycan structures, we have synthesized novel heparan sulfate glycopolymers with well-defined carbohydrate structures and tunable chain length through ring-opening metathesis polymerization chemistry. These polymers recapitulate the key features of anticoagulant heparan sulfate by displaying the sulfation pattern responsible for heparin’s anticoagulant activity. The use of polymerization chemistry greatly simplifies the synthesis of complex glycosaminoglycan structures, providing a facile method to generate homogeneous macromolecules with tunable biological and chemical properties. Through the use of in vitro chromogenic substrate assays and ex vivo clotting assays, we found that the HS glycopolymers exhibited anticoagulant activity in a sulfation pattern and length-dependent manner. Compared to heparin standards, our short polymers did not display any activity. However, our longer polymers were able to incorporate in vitro and ex vivo characteristics of both low-molecular-weight heparin derivatives and heparin, displaying hybrid anticoagulant properties. These studies emphasize the significance of sulfation pattern specificity in specific carbohydrate-protein interactions, and demonstrate the effectiveness of multivalent molecules in recapitulating the activity of natural polysaccharides.

Towards conditional RNAi : shape and sequence transduction with small conditional RNAs

RNA interference (RNAi) is a powerful biological pathway allowing for sequence-specific knockdown of any gene of interest. While RNAi is a proven tool for probing gene function in biological circuits, it is limited by being constitutively ON and executes the logical operation: silence gene Y. To provide greater control over post-transcriptional gene silencing, we propose engineering a biological logic gate to implement “conditional RNAi.” Such a logic gate would silence gene Y only upon the expression of gene X, a completely unrelated gene, executing the logic: if gene X is transcribed, silence independent gene Y. Silencing of gene Y could be confined to a specific time and/or tissue by appropriately selecting gene X.

To implement the logic of conditional RNAi, we present the design and experimental validation of three nucleic acid self-assembly mechanisms which detect a sub-sequence of mRNA X and produce a Dicer substrate specific to gene Y. We introduce small conditional RNAs (scRNAs) to execute the signal transduction under isothermal conditions. scRNAs are small RNAs which change conformation, leading to both shape and sequence signal transduction, in response to hybridization to an input nucleic acid target. While all three conditional RNAi mechanisms execute the same logical operation, they explore various design alternatives for nucleic acid self-assembly pathways, including the use of duplex and monomer scRNAs, stable versus metastable reactants, multiple methods of nucleation, and 3-way and 4-way branch migration.

We demonstrate the isothermal execution of the conditional RNAi mechanisms in a test tube with recombinant Dicer. These mechanisms execute the logic: if mRNA X is detected, produce a Dicer substrate targeting independent mRNA Y. Only the final Dicer substrate, not the scRNA reactants or intermediates, is efficiently processed by Dicer. Additional work in human whole-cell extracts and a model tissue-culture system delves into both the promise and challenge of implementing conditional RNAi in vivo.

Financial equilibrium, voting procedures, and coalition structures in allocational mechanisms

This thesis is comprised of three chapters, each of which is concerned with properties of allocational mechanisms which include voting procedures as part of their operation. The theme of interaction between economic and political forces recurs in the three chapters, as described below.

Chapter One demonstrates existence of a non-controlling interest shareholders' equilibrium for a stylized one-period stock market economy with fewer securities than states of the world. The economy has two decision mechanisms: Owners vote to change firms' production plans across states, fixing shareholdings; and individuals trade shares and the current production / consumption good, fixing production plans. A shareholders' equilibrium is a production plan profile, and a shares / current good allocation stable for both mechanisms. In equilibrium, no (Kramer direction-restricted) plan revision is supported by a share-weighted majority, and there exists no Pareto superior reallocation.

Chapter Two addresses efficient management of stationary-site, fixed-budget, partisan voter registration drives. Sufficient conditions obtain for unique optimal registrar deployment within contested districts. Each census tract is assigned an expected net plurality return to registration investment index, computed from estimates of registration, partisanship, and turnout. Optimum registration intensity is a logarithmic transformation of a tract's index. These conditions are tested using a merged data set including both census variables and Los Angeles County Registrar data from several 1984 Assembly registration drives. Marginal registration spending benefits, registrar compensation, and the general campaign problem are also discussed.

The last chapter considers social decision procedures at a higher level of abstraction. Chapter Three analyzes the structure of decisive coalition families, given a quasitransitive-valued social decision procedure satisfying the universal domain and ITA axioms. By identifying those alternatives X* ⊆ X on which the Pareto principle fails, imposition in the social ranking is characterized. Every coaliton is weakly decisive for X* over X~X*, and weakly antidecisive for X~X* over X*; therefore, alternatives in X~X* are never socially ranked above X*. Repeated filtering of alternatives causing Pareto failure shows states in X^n*~X^((n+1))* are never socially ranked above X^((n+1))*. Limiting results of iterated application of the *-operator are also discussed.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Digested sludge: delineation and modeling for ocean disposal

Experimental work was performed to delineate the system of digested sludge particles and associated trace metals and also to measure the interactions of sludge with seawater. Particle-size and particle number distributions were measured with a Coulter Counter. Number counts in excess of 10¹² particles per liter were found in both the City of Los Angeles Hyperion mesophilic digested sludge and the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts (LACSD) digested primary sludge. More than 90 percent of the particles had diameters less than 10 microns.

Total and dissolved trace metals (Ag, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were measured in LACSD sludge. Manganese was the only metal whose dissolved fraction exceeded one percent of the total metal. Sedimentation experiments for several dilutions of LACSD sludge in seawater showed that the sedimentation velocities of the sludge particles decreased as the dilution factor increased. A tenfold increase in dilution shifted the sedimentation velocity distribution by an order of magnitude. Chromium, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn were also followed during sedimentation. To a first approximation these metals behaved like the particles.

Solids and selected trace metals (Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were monitored in oxic mixtures of both Hyperion and LACSD sludges for periods of 10 to 28 days. Less than 10 percent of the filterable solids dissolved or were oxidized. Only Ni was mobilized away from the particles. The majority of the mobilization was complete in less than one day.

The experimental data of this work were combined with oceanographic, biological, and geochemical information to propose and model the discharge of digested sludge to the San Pedro and Santa Monica Basins. A hydraulic computer simulation for a round buoyant jet in a density stratified medium showed that discharges of sludge effluent mixture at depths of 730 m would rise no more than 120 m. Initial jet mixing provided dilution estimates of 450 to 2600. Sedimentation analyses indicated that the solids would reach the sediments within 10 km of the point discharge.

Mass balances on the oxidizable chemical constituents in sludge indicated that the nearly anoxic waters of the basins would become wholly anoxic as a result of proposed discharges. From chemical-equilibrium computer modeling of the sludge digester and dilutions of sludge in anoxic seawater, it was predicted that the chemistry of all trace metals except Cr and Mn will be controlled by the precipitation of metal sulfide solids. This metal speciation held for dilutions up to 3000.

The net environmental impacts of this scheme should be salutary. The trace metals in the sludge should be immobilized in the anaerobic bottom sediments of the basins. Apparently no lifeforms higher than bacteria are there to be disrupted. The proposed deep-water discharges would remove the need for potentially expensive and energy-intensive land disposal alternatives and would end the discharge to the highly productive water near the ocean surface.

Baryon and lepton numbers in particle physics beyond the standard model

The works presented in this thesis explore a variety of extensions of the standard model of particle physics which are motivated by baryon number (B) and lepton number (L), or some combination thereof. In the standard model, both baryon number and lepton number are accidental global symmetries violated only by non-perturbative weak effects, though the combination B-L is exactly conserved. Although there is currently no evidence for considering these symmetries as fundamental, there are strong phenomenological bounds restricting the existence of new physics violating B or L. In particular, there are strict limits on the lifetime of the proton whose decay would violate baryon number by one unit and lepton number by an odd number of units.

The first paper included in this thesis explores some of the simplest possible extensions of the standard model in which baryon number is violated, but the proton does not decay as a result. The second paper extends this analysis to explore models in which baryon number is conserved, but lepton flavor violation is present. Special attention is given to the processes of μ to e conversion and μ → eγ which are bound by existing experimental limits and relevant to future experiments.

The final two papers explore extensions of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) in which both baryon number and lepton number, or the combination B-L, are elevated to the status of being spontaneously broken local symmetries. These models have a rich phenomenology including new collider signatures, stable dark matter candidates, and alternatives to the discrete R-parity symmetry usually built into the MSSM in order to protect against baryon and lepton number violating processes.

Development of Metalloenzyme Dioxygen Reduction Cathodes

The prime thrust of this dissertation is to advance the development of fuel cell dioxygen reduction cathodes that employ some variant of multicopper oxidase enzymes as the catalyst. The low earth-abundance of platinum metal and its correspondingly high market cost has prompted a general search amongst chemists and materials scientists for reasonable alternatives to this metal for facilitating catalytic dioxygen reduction chemistry. The multicopper oxidases (MCOs), which constitute a class of enzyme that naturally catalyze the reaction O₂ + 4H⁺ + 4e^- → 2H₂O, provide a promising set of biochemical contenders for fuel cell cathode catalysts. In MCOs, a substrate reduces a copper atom at the type 1 site, where charge is then transferred to a trinuclear copper cluster consisting of a mononuclear type 2 or “normal copper” site and a binuclear type 3 copper site. Following the reduction of all four copper atoms in the enzyme, dioxygen is then reduced to water in two two-electron steps, upon binding to the trinuclear copper cluster. We identified an MCO, a laccase from the hyperthermophilic bacterium Thermus thermophilus strain HB27, as a promising candidate for cathodic fuel cell catalysis. This protein demonstrates resilience at high temperatures, exhibiting no denaturing transition at temperatures high as 95°C, conditions relevant to typical polymer electrolyte fuel cell operation.

In Chapter I of this thesis, we discuss initial efforts to physically characterize the enzyme when operating as a heterogeneous cathode catalyst. Following this, in Chapter II we then outline the development of a model capable of describing the observed electrochemical behavior of this enzyme when operating on porous carbon electrodes. Developing a rigorous mathematical framework with which to describe this system had the potential to improve our understanding of MCO electrokinetics, while also providing a level of predictive power that might guide any future efforts to fabricate MCO cathodes with optimized electrochemical performance. In Chapter III we detail efforts to reduce electrode overpotentials through site-directed mutagenesis of the inner and outer-sphere ligands of the Cu sites in laccase, using electrochemical methods and electronic spectroscopy to try and understand the resultant behavior of our mutant constructs. Finally, in Chapter IV, we examine future work concerning the fabrication of enhanced MCO cathodes, exploring the possibility of new cathode materials and advanced enzyme deposition techniques.

Light-matter Interactions in Semiconductors and Metals: From Nitride Optoelectronics to Quantum Plasmonics

This thesis puts forth a theory-directed approach coupled with spectroscopy aimed at the discovery and understanding of light-matter interactions in semiconductors and metals.

The first part of the thesis presents the discovery and development of Zn-IV nitride materials.The commercial prominence in the optoelectronics industry of tunable semiconductor alloy materials based on nitride semiconductor devices, specifically InGaN, motivates the search for earth-abundant alternatives for use in efficient, high-quality optoelectronic devices. II-IV-N2 compounds, which are closely related to the wurtzite-structured III-N semiconductors, have similar electronic and optical properties to InGaN namely direct band gaps, high quantum efficiencies and large optical absorption coefficients. The choice of different group II and group IV elements provides chemical diversity that can be exploited to tune the structural and electronic properties through the series of alloys. The first theoretical and experimental investigation of the ZnSnxGe1−xN2 series as a replacement for III-nitrides is discussed here.

The second half of the thesis shows ab−initio calculations for surface plasmons and plasmonic hot carrier dynamics. Surface plasmons, electromagnetic modes confined to the surface of a conductor-dielectric interface, have sparked renewed interest because of their quantum nature and their broad range of applications. The decay of surface plasmons is usually a detriment in the field of plasmonics, but the possibility to capture the energy normally lost to heat would open new opportunities in photon sensors, energy conversion devices and switching. A theoretical understanding of plasmon-driven hot carrier generation and relaxation dynamics in the ultrafast regime is presented here. Additionally calculations for plasmon-mediated upconversion as well as an energy-dependent transport model for these non-equilibrium carriers are shown.

Finally, this thesis gives an outlook on the potential of non-equilibrium phenomena in metals and semiconductors for future light-based technologies.