Habit Formation and the Persistence of Monetary Shocks

This paper studies the persistent effects of monetary shocks on output. Previous empirical literature documents this persistence, but standard general equilibrium models with sticky prices fail to generate output responses beyond the duration of nominal contracts. This paper constructs and estimates a general equilibrium model with price rigidities, habit formation, and costly capital adjustment. The model is estimated via Maximum Likelihood using US data on output, the real money stock, and the nominal interest rate. Econometric results suggest that habit formation and adjustment costs to capital play an important role in explaining the output effects of monetary policy. In particular, impulse response analysis indicates that the model generates persistent, hump-shaped output responses to monetary shocks.

Shocks, Monetary Policy and Institutions: Explaining Unemployment Persistence in Persistence in “Europe” and the United States

This paper examines the rise in European unemployment since the 1970s by introducing endogenous growth into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and unemployment. We subject the model to an uncorrelated cost push shock, in order to mimic a scenario akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disinfl ation by following an interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a Bundesbank reaction function. 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment is still about 1.8 percentage points above its steady state. Our model also broadly reproduces cross country differences in unemployment by drawing on cross country differences in the size of cost push shock and the associated disinfl ation, the monetary policy reaction function and the wage setting structure.

Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

Shock persistence in a dual economy model of India

This article examines shock persistence in agricultural and industrial output in India. Drawing on the dual economy literature, the linkages between the sectors through the terms of trade are emphasised. However different dual economy models make differing assumptions regarding the categorisation of variables as being either endogenous or exogenous and this distinction is crucial in explaining the pattern of shock persistence. Using annual data for 1955-95, our results show that shocks to both output series are permanent while those to the terms of trade are transient.

Co-movement between two processes with local persistence

This paper introduces a residual based test where the null hypothesis of c:&InOvement between two processes with local persistenc~ can be tested, even under the presence of an endogenous regressor. It, therefore, fills in an existing lacuna in econometrics, in which longrun relationships can also be tested if the dependent and independent variables do not have a unit root, but do exhibit local persistence.

Wealth composition, endogenous fertility and the dynamics of income inequality

This paper analyzes how differences in the composition of wealth between human and physical capital among families affect fertility choices. These in tum influence the dynamics of wealth and income inequality across generations through a tradeoffbetween quantity and quality of children. Wealth composition affects fertility because physical capital has only a wealth effect on number of children, whereas human capital increases the time cost of child-rearing in addition to the wealth effect. I construct a model combining endogenous fertility with borrowing constraints in human capital investments, in which weaIth composition is determined endogenously. The model is calibrated to the PNAD, a Brazilian household survey, and the main findings of the paper can be summarized as follows. First, the model implies that the crosssection relationship between fertility and wealth typically displays a U-shaped pattem, reflecting differences in wealth composition between poor and rich families. Also, the quantity-quality tradeoff implies a concave cross-section relationship between investments per child and wealth. Second, as the economy develops and families overcome their bOlTowing constraints, the negative effect of weaIth on fertility becomes smaller, and persistence of inequality declines accordingly. The empirical evidence presented in this paper is consistent with both implications .

The Intrahippocampal Infusion Of Crotamine From Crotalus Durissus Terrificus Venom Enhances Memory Persistence In Rats.

Previous research has shown that crotamine, a toxin isolated from the venom of Crotalus durissus terrificus, induces the release of acetylcholine and dopamine in the central nervous system of rats. Particularly, these neurotransmitters are important modulators of memory processes. Therefore, in this study we investigated the effects of crotamine infusion on persistence of memory in rats. We verified that the intrahippocampal infusion of crotamine (1 μg/μl; 1 μl/side) improved the persistence of object recognition and aversive memory. By other side, the intrahippocampal infusion of the toxin did not alter locomotor and exploratory activities, anxiety or pain threshold. These results demonstrate a future prospect of using crotamine as potential pharmacological tool to treat diseases involving memory impairment, although it is still necessary more researches to better elucidate the crotamine effects on hippocampus and memory.

Islet Neogenesis-associated Protein (ingap): The Role Of Its Endogenous Production As A Positive Modulator Of Insulin Secretion.

Islet neogenesis-associated protein (INGAP) is a peptide found in pancreatic exocrine-, duct- and islet- non-β-cells from normal hamsters. Its increase induced by either its exogenous administration or by the overexpression of its gene enhances β-cell secretory function and increases β-cell mass by a combination of stimulation of cell replication and islet neogenesis and reduction of β-cell apoptosis. We studied the potential modulatory role of endogenous INGAP in insulin secretion using two different experimental approaches. Hamster islets transfected with INGAP-small interfering RNA (INGAP-siRNA) were used to study glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS). In parallel, freshly isolated islets were incubated with high glucose and the same concentration of either a specific anti-INGAP rabbit serum or normal rabbit serum. INGAP-siRNA transfected islets reduced their INGAP mRNA and protein content by 35.1% and 47.2%, respectively whereas GSIS decreased by 25.8%. GSIS by transfected islets attained levels comparable to those recorded in control islets when INGAP pentadecapeptide (INGAP-PP) was added to the culture medium. INGAP antibody in the medium decreased significantly GSIS in a dose-dependent manner. These results indicate that endogenous INGAP plays a physiological positive modulatory role in insulin secretion, supporting its possible use in the treatment of prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes.

Hypobromous Acid, A Powerful Endogenous Electrophile: Experimental And Theoretical Studies.

Hypobromous acid (HOBr) is an inorganic acid produced by the oxidation of the bromide anion (Br(-)). The blood plasma level of Br(-) is more than 1,000-fold lower than that of chloride anion (Cl(-)). Consequently, the endogenous production of HOBr is also lower compared to hypochlorous acid (HOCl). Nevertheless, there is much evidence of the deleterious effects of HOBr. From these data, we hypothesized that the reactivity of HOBr could be better associated with its electrophilic strength. Our hypothesis was confirmed, since HOBr was significantly more reactive than HOCl when the oxidability of the studied compounds was not relevant. For instance: anisole (HOBr, k2=2.3×10(2)M(-1)s(-1), HOCl non-reactive); dansylglycine (HOBr, k2=7.3×10(6)M(-1)s(-1), HOCl, 5.2×10(2)M(-1)s(-1)); salicylic acid (HOBr, k2=4.0×10(4)M(-1)s(-1), non-reactive); 3-hydroxybenzoic acid (HOBr, k2=5.9×10(4)M(-1)s(-1), HOCl, k2=1.1×10(1)M(-1)s(-1)); uridine (HOBr, k2=1.3×10(3)M(-1)s(-1), HOCl non-reactive). The compounds 4-bromoanisole and 5-bromouridine were identified as the products of the reactions between HOBr and anisole or uridine, respectively, i.e. typical products of electrophilic substitutions. Together, these results show that, rather than an oxidant, HOBr is a powerful electrophilic reactant. This chemical property was theoretically confirmed by measuring the positive Mulliken and ChelpG charges upon bromine and chlorine. In conclusion, the high electrophilicity of HOBr could be behind its well-established deleterious effects. We propose that HOBr is the most powerful endogenous electrophile.

Effect Of Pain Chronification And Chronic Pain On An Endogenous Pain Modulation Circuit In Rats.

We tested the hypothesis that chronic pain development (pain chronification) and ongoing chronic pain (chronic pain) reduce the activity and induce plastic changes in an endogenous analgesia circuit, the ascending nociceptive control. An important mechanism mediating this form of endogenous analgesia, referred to as capsaicin-induced analgesia, is its dependence on nucleus accumbens μ-opioid receptor mechanisms. Therefore, we also investigated whether pain chronification and chronic pain alter the requirement for nucleus accumbens μ-opioid receptor mechanisms in capsaicin-induced analgesia. We used an animal model of pain chronification in which daily subcutaneous prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) injections into the rat's hind paw for 14 days, referred to as the induction period of persistent hyperalgesia, induce a long-lasting state of nociceptor sensitization referred to as the maintenance period of persistent hyperalgesia, that lasts for at least 30 days following the cessation of the PGE2 treatment. The nociceptor hypersensitivity was measured by the shortening of the time interval for the animal to respond to a mechanical stimulation of the hind paw. We found a significant reduction in the duration of capsaicin-induced analgesia during the induction and maintenance period of persistent mechanical hyperalgesia. Intra-accumbens injection of the μ-opioid receptor selective antagonist Cys(2),Tyr(3),Orn(5),Pen(7)amide (CTOP) 10 min before the subcutaneous injection of capsaicin into the rat's fore paw blocked capsaicin-induced analgesia. Taken together, these findings indicate that pain chronification and chronic pain reduce the duration of capsaicin-induced analgesia, without affecting its dependence on nucleus accumbens μ-opioid receptor mechanisms. The attenuation of endogenous analgesia during pain chronification and chronic pain suggests that endogenous pain circuits play an important role in the development and maintenance of chronic pain.

Anomalous diffusion in non-Markovian walks having amnestically induced persistence

We report numerically and analytically estimated values for the Hurst exponent for a recently proposed non-Markovian walk characterized by amnestically induced persistence. These results are consistent with earlier studies showing that log-periodic oscillations arise only for large memory losses of the recent past. We also report numerical estimates of the Hurst exponent for non-Markovian walks with diluted memory. Finally, we study walks with a fractal memory of the past for a Thue-Morse and Fibonacci memory patterns. These results are interpreted and discussed in the context of the necessary and sufficient conditions for the central limit theorem to hold.

Spontaneous symmetry breaking in amnestically induced persistence

We investigate a recently proposed non-Markovian random walk model characterized by loss of memories of the recent past and amnestically induced persistence. We report numerical and analytical results showing the complete phase diagram, consisting of four phases, for this system: (i) classical nonpersistence, (ii) classical persistence, (iii) log-periodic nonpersistence, and (iv) log-periodic persistence driven by negative feedback. The first two phases possess continuous scale invariance symmetry, however, log-periodicity breaks this symmetry. Instead, log-periodic motion satisfies discrete scale invariance symmetry, with complex rather than real fractal dimensions. We find for log-periodic persistence evidence not only of statistical but also of geometric self-similarity.

Frequency of LCT-13910C > T single nucleotide polymorphism associated with adult-type hypolactasia/lactase persistence among Brazilians of different ethnic groups

Background: Adult-type hypolactasia, the physiological decline of lactase some time after weaning, was previously associated with the LCT -13910C>T polymorphism worldwide except in Africa. Lactase non-persistence is the most common phenotype in humans, except in northwestern Europe with its long history of pastoralism and milking. We had previously shown association of LCT -13910C>T polymorphism with adult-type hypolactasia in Brazilians; thus, we assessed its frequency among different Brazilian ethnic groups. Methods: We investigated the ethnicity-related frequency of this polymorphism in 567 Brazilians [mean age, 42.1 +/- 16.8 years; 157 (27.7%) men]; 399 (70.4%) White, 50 (8.8%) Black, 65 (11.5%) Brown, and 53 (9.3%) Japanese-Brazilian. DNA was extracted from leukocytes; LCT -13910C>T polymorphism was analyzed by PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism. Results: Prevalence of the CC genotype associated with hypolactasia was similar (57%) among White and Brown groups; however, prevalence was higher among Blacks (80%) and those of Japanese descent (100%). Only 2 (4%) Blacks had TT genotype, and 8 (16%) had the CT genotype. Assuming an association between CC genotype and hypolactasia, and CT and TT genotypes with lactase persistence, 356 (62.8%) individuals had hypolactasia and 211 (37.2%) had lactase persistence. The White and Brown groups had the same hypolactasia prevalence (similar to 57%); nevertheless, was 80% among Black individuals and 100% among Japanese-Brazilians (P < 0.01). Conclusion: The lactase persistence allele, LCT -13910T, was found in about 43% of both White and Brown and 20% of the Black Brazilians, but was absent among all Japanese Brazilians studied.

Activation of endogenous p53 by combined p19Arf gene transfer and nutlin-3 drug treatment modalities in the murine cell lines B16 and C6

Background: Reactivation of p53 by either gene transfer or pharmacologic approaches may compensate for loss of p19Arf or excess mdm2 expression, common events in melanoma and glioma. In our previous work, we constructed the pCLPG retroviral vector where transgene expression is controlled by p53 through a p53-responsive promoter. The use of this vector to introduce p19Arf into tumor cells that harbor p53wt should yield viral expression of p19Arf which, in turn, would activate the endogenous p53 and result in enhanced vector expression and tumor suppression. Since nutlin-3 can activate p53 by blocking its interaction with mdm2, we explored the possibility that the combination of p19Arf gene transfer and nutlin-3 drug treatment may provide an additive benefit in stimulating p53 function. Methods: B16 (mouse melanoma) and C6 (rat glioma) cell lines, which harbor p53wt, were transduced with pCLPGp19 and these were additionally treated with nutlin-3 or the DNA damaging agent, doxorubicin. Viral expression was confirmed by Western, Northern and immunofluorescence assays. p53 function was assessed by reporter gene activity provided by a p53-responsive construct. Alterations in proliferation and viability were measured by colony formation, growth curve, cell cycle and MTT assays. In an animal model, B16 cells were treated with the pCLPGp19 virus and/or drugs before subcutaneous injection in C57BL/6 mice, observation of tumor progression and histopathologic analyses. Results: Here we show that the functional activation of endogenous p53wt in B16 was particularly challenging, but accomplished when combined gene transfer and drug treatments were applied, resulting in increased transactivation by p53, marked cell cycle alteration and reduced viability in culture. In an animal model, B16 cells treated with both p19Arf and nutlin-3 yielded increased necrosis and decreased BrdU marking. In comparison, C6 cells were quite susceptible to either treatment, yet p53 was further activated by the combination of p19Arf and nutlin-3. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to apply both p19Arf and nutlin-3 for the stimulation of p53 activity. These results support the notion that a p53 responsive vector may prove to be an interesting gene transfer tool, especially when combined with p53- activating agents, for the treatment of tumors that retain wild-type p53.

Strain origin drives virulence and persistence of Xylella fastidiosa in alfalfa

Generalist pathogens frequently exist as a complex of genetically differentiated strains, which can differ in virulence and transmissibility. A description of the extent to which strain variability mediates host species competence is needed to understand disease dynamics for systems with both host and pathogen strain diversity. This study tested the hypothesis that strain-specific variation of a generalist vector-borne plant pathogen, Xylella fastidiosa, affects disease severity in alfalfa (Medicago sativa) and competence of this crop as a reservoir host. Alfalfa seedlings were inoculated with one of 23 X. fastidiosa isolates collected from different hosts, eight identified as belonging to an almond strain, and the remainder from a grape strain. Pathogen population, symptom severity and infection incidence were compared over five successive harvests. Infected plant size, measured mainly by plant height, internode length and above ground biomass, was reduced up to 50% compared to buffer-inoculated controls, and more severe symptoms were observed at later harvests and for higher pathogen populations. Grape isolates had higher bacterial populations within alfalfa than almond isolates. In addition, infection with grape isolates resulted in more severe alfalfa stunting than that caused by almond isolates. Moreover, there was a strong positive relationship between isolate multiplication rate and both symptom severity and infection persistence (i.e. maintenance of chronic infection within host). Isolates with low initial populations had low incidence at the final harvest, with one isolate dying out altogether. The results showed that X. fastidiosa-genetic diversity contributed to variation in alfalfa disease severity. The results also suggest that pathogen strain may mediate host competence via differences in bacterial population density and persistence.