Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Electron interaction with gel dosimeters : effective atomic numbers for collisional, radiative and total interaction processes

The effective atomic number is widely employed in radiation studies, particularly for the characterisation of interaction processes in dosimeters, biological tissues and substitute materials. Gel dosimeters are unique in that they comprise both the phantom and dosimeter material. In this work, effective atomic numbers for total and partial electron interaction processes have been calculated for the first time for a Fricke gel dosimeter, five hypoxic and nine normoxic polymer gel dosimeters. A range of biological materials are also presented for comparison. The spectrum of energies studied spans 10 keV to 100 MeV, over which the effective atomic number varies by 30 %. The effective atomic numbers of gels match those of soft tissue closely over the full energy range studied; greater disparities exist at higher energies but are typically within 4 %.

Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Adsorption isitherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part IV. Charge of maximum adsorption-Statistical mechanical basis

The charge at which adsorption of orgamc compounds attains a maximum ( \sigma MAX M) at an electrochenucal interface is analysed using several multi-state models in a hierarchical manner The analysis is based on statistical mechamcal results for the following models (A) two-state site parity, (B) two-state muhl-slte, and (C) three-state site parity The coulombic interactions due to permanent and reduced dipole effects (using mean field approximation), electrostatic field effects and specific substrate interactions have been taken into account. The simplest model in the hierarchy (two-state site parity) yields the exphcit dependence of ( \sigma MAX M) on the permanent dipole moment, polarizability of the solvent and the adsorbate, lattice spacing, effective coordination number, etc Other models in the baerarchy bring to hght the influence of the solvent structure and the role of substrate interactions, etc As a result of this approach, the "composition" of oM.x m terms of the fundamental molecular constants becomes clear. With a view to use these molecular results to maxamum advantage, the derived results for ( \sigma MAX M) have been converted into those involving experimentally observable parameters lake Co, C 1, E N, etc Wherever possible, some of the earlier phenomenologlcal relations reported for ( \sigma MAX M), notably by Parsons, Damaskm and Frumkln, and Trasattl, are shown to have a certain molecular basis, vlz a simple two-state sate panty model.As a corollary to the hxerarcbacal modelling, \sigma MAX M and the potential corresponding to at (Emax) are shown to be constants independent of 0max or Corg for all models The lmphcatlon of our analysis f o r OmMa x with respect to that predicted by the generalized surface layer equation (which postulates Om~ and Ema x varlaUon with 0) is discussed in detail Finally we discuss an passing o M. and the electrosorptlon valency an this context.

Is Human-X Chromosome Inactivation A Sex-Determining Device

The evolutionary function of X chromosome inactivation is thought to be dosage compensation. However, there is, at present, little evidence to suggest that most X chromosome-linked genes require such compensation. Another view--that X chromosome inactivation may be related to sex determination--is examined here. Consider a hypothetical DNA sequence regulating a major structural gene concerned with the determination of maleness. If this regulatory sequence occurs in both X and Y chromosomes and if its copy number in the Y chromosome is significantly greater than in the X chromosome, then the male-determining properties of the Y chromosome could be attributed to this higher copy number. On the other hand, if the Y chromosome has the same copy number of this sequence as the X chromosome, it is difficult to see how determination of two sexes would occur under such circumstances because XX and XY genomes would then be indistinguishable in this regard. Such a situation seems to occur in the human species with respect to the banded krait minor satellite, a repetitious DNA sequence associated with sex determination. This apparent difficulty may be resolved if X chromosome inactivation renders regulatory as well as structural genes nonfunctional and thereby brings about a significant reduction in the effective copy number of X chromosome-linked DNA sequences concerned with sex determination. It is suggested that X chromosome inactivation brings about, in this manner, a critical inequality between XX and XY embryos and that sex determination in humans is a consequence of this inequality. An analogous situation appears to exist in certain insects in which inactivation of a haploid set of chromosomes (and presumably, therefore, a 50% reduction in the effective copy number of most genes) is associated with maleness. If this line of reasoning is correct, it would suggest that sex determination may be the primary function of X chromosome inactivation.

The evolution of genomic imprinting

We explore three possible pathways for the evolution of genomic imprinting. (1) Imprinting may be advantageous in itself when imprinted and unimprinted alleles of a locus confer different phenotypes. If a segment of DNA is imprinted in the gametes of one sex but not in those of the other, it might lead to effects correlated with sexual dimorphism. More fundamentally, in certain organisms, sex determination might have evolved because of imprinting. When imprinting leads to chromosome elimination or inactivation and occurs in some embryos but not in others, two classes of embryos, differing in the number of functional gene copies, would result. A model for sex determination based on inequality in the actual or effective copy-number of particular noncoding, regulatory sequences of DNA has been proposed (Chandra, Proc. natn. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 82. 1165–1169 and 6947–6949, 1985). Maternal control of offspring sex is another possible consequence of imprinting; this would indicate a potential role for imprinting in sex ratio evolution. (2) Genes responsible for imprinting may have pleiotropic effects and they may have been selected for reasons other than their imprinting ability. Lack of evidence precludes further consideration of this possibility. (3) Imprinting could have co-evolved with other traits. For instance, gamete-specific imprinting could lead to a lowered fitness of androgenetic or gynogenetic diploids relative to the fitness of ‘normal’ diploids. This in turn would reinforce the evolution of anisogamy. The reversibility of imprinting raises the possibility of occasional incomplete or improper erasure. If the site of imprinting is the egg – as appears to be the case with the human X (Chandra and Brown, Nature 253. 165–168, 1975) – either improper imprinting or improper erasure could lead to unusual patterns of inheritance (as in the fragile-X syndrome) or fitness effects skipping generations.

Proposed role of w chromosome inactivation and the absence of dosage compensation in avian sex determination

Three features of avian sex chromosomes - female heterogamety (ZZ male, ZW female), the apparently inactive state of the W chromosome, and dose-dependent expression of Z-linked genes - are examined in regard to their possible relation to sex determination. It is proposed that the W chromosome is facultatively heterochromatic and that the Z and W chromosomes carry one or more homologous sex-determination genes. The absence of dosage compensation in ZZ embryos, and W inactivation in ZW embryos, would then bring about a 2n(ZZ)-n(ZW) inequality in the effective copy number of such genes. The absence of dosage compensation of Z-linked genes in ZZ embryos is viewed as a means by which two copies of Z-W homologous sex determination genes are kept active to meet the requirements of testis determination. W inactivation may promote ovarian development by reducing the effective copy number of these genes from 2n to n. If there is a W-specific gene for femaleness, spread of heterochromatization to this gene in cells forming the right gonadal primordium may explain the latter's normally undifferentiated state; reversal of heterochromatization may similarly explain the development of the right gonad into a testis following left ovariectomy.

Acoustic performance of hoses - A parametric study

Modeling of wave propagation in hoses, unlike in rigid pipes or waveguides, introduces a coupling between the inside medium, the hose wall, and the outside medium, This alters the axial wave number and thence the corresponding effective speed of sound inside the hose resulting in sound radiation into the outside medium, also called the breakout or shell noise, The existing literature on the subject is such that a hose cannot be integrated into the,whole piping system made up of sections of hoses, pipes, and mufflers to predict the acoustical performance in terms of transmission loss (TL), The present paper seeks to fill this gap, Three one-dimensional coupled wave equations are written to account for the presence of a yielding wall with a finite lumped transverse impedance of the hose material, The resulting wave equation can readily be reduced to a transfer matrix form using an effective wave number for a moving medium in a hose section, Incorporating the effect of fluid loading due to the outside medium also allows prediction of the transverse TL and the breakout noise, Axial TL and transverse TL have been combined into net TL needed by designers, Predictions of the axial as well as transverse TL are shown to compare well with those of a rigorous 3-D analysis using only one-hundredth of the computation time, Finally, results of some parametric studies are reported for engineers involved in the acoustical design of hoses. (C) 1996 Institute of Noise Control Engineering.

Estimating the fraction of progeny virions that must incorporate APOBEC3G for suppression of productive HIV-1 infection

The contest between the host factor APOBEC3G (A3G) and the HIV-1 protein Vif presents an attractive target of intervention. The extent to which the A3G-Vif interaction must be suppressed to tilt the balance in favor of A3G remains unknown. We employed stochastic simulations and mathematical modeling of the within-host dynamics and evolution of HIV-1 to estimate the fraction of progeny virions that must incorporate A3G to render productive infection unsustainable. Using three different approaches, we found consistently that a transition from sustained infection to suppression of productive infection occurred when the latter fraction exceeded similar to 0.8. The transition was triggered by A3G-induced hypermutations that led to premature stop codons compromising viral production and was consistent with driving the basic reproductive number, R-o, below unity. The fraction identified may serve as a quantitative guideline for strategies targeting the A3G-Vif axis. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Electric current induced flow of liquid metals: Mechanism and substrate-surface effects

Long range, continuous flow of liquid metals occurs upon application of an electric current. Here, we report experimental results elucidating the mechanism of current-induced liquid metal flow, and its dependence on substrate surface condition. It is shown that the observed flow is diffusion-controlled, with the flow-rate depending linearly on applied current density, indicating that it is driven by electromigration. The effective charge number for liquid electromigration, Z*, of several pure metals, such as Al, Bi, Ga, Sn, and Pb, were deduced from the experimental results and were found to be close to the elemental valency. With the exception of liquid Pb, Z* for all liquid metals tested in this study were positive, indicating that: (i) electron wind contributes much less to Z* in liquid metals than in solids, and (ii) with a few exceptions, liquid metals generally flow in the direction of the electric current. On smooth substrates which are wetted well by the liquid metal, flow occurs in a thin, continuous stream. On rough surfaces which are poorly wetted, on the other hand, discrete beads of liquid form, with mass transport between adjacent beads occurring by surface diffusion on the substrate. A rationale for the role of substrate roughness in fostering this observed transition in flow mechanism is presented. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.

Influence of fuel hydrogen fraction on syngas fueled SI engine: Fuel thermo-physical property analysis and in-cylinder experimental investigations

Hydrogen, either in pure form or as a gaseous fuel mixture specie enhances the fuel conversion efficiency and reduce emissions in an internal combustion engine. This is due to the reduction in combustion duration attributed to higher laminar flame speeds. Hydrogen is also expected to increase the engine convective heat flux, attributed (directly or indirectly) to parameters like higher adiabatic flame temperature, laminar flame speed, thermal conductivity and diffusivity and lower flame quenching distance. These factors (adversely) affect the thermo-kinematic response and offset some of the benefits. The current work addresses the influence of mixture hydrogen fraction in syngas on the engine energy balance and the thermo-kinematic response for close to stoichiometric operating conditions. Four different bio-derived syngas compositions with fuel calorific value varying from 3.14 MJ/kg to 7.55 MJ/kg and air fuel mixture hydrogen fraction varying from 7.1% to 14.2% by volume are used. The analysis comprises of (a) use of chemical kinetics simulation package CHEMKIN for quantifying the thermo-physical properties (b) 0-D model for engine in-cylinder analysis and (c) in-cylinder investigations on a two-cylinder engine in open loop cooling mode for quantifying the thermo-kinematic response and engine energy balance. With lower adiabatic flame temperature for Syngas, the in-cylinder heat transfer analysis suggests that temperature has little effect in terms of increasing the heat flux. For typical engine like conditions (700 K and 25 bar at CR of 10), the laminar flame speed for syngas exceeds that of methane (55.5 cm/s) beyond mixture hydrogen fraction of 11% and is attributed to the increase in H based radicals. This leads to a reduction in the effective Lewis number and laminar flame thickness, potentially inducing flame instability and cellularity. Use of a thermodynamic model to assess the isolated influence of thermal conductivity and diffusivity on heat flux suggests an increase in the peak heat flux between 2% and 15% for the lowest (0.420 MW/m(2)) and highest (0.480 MW/m(2)) hydrogen containing syngas over methane (0.415 MW/m(2)) fueled operation. Experimental investigations indicate the engine cooling load for syngas fueled engine is higher by about 7% and 12% as compared to methane fueled operation; the losses are seen to increase with increasing mixture hydrogen fraction. Increase in the gas to electricity efficiency is observed from 18% to 24% as the mixture hydrogen fraction increases from 7.1% to 9.5%. Further increase in mixture hydrogen fraction to 14.2% results in the reduction of efficiency to 23%; argued due to the changes in the initial and terminal stages of combustion. On doubling of mixture hydrogen fraction, the flame kernel development and fast burn phase duration decrease by about 7% and 10% respectively and the terminal combustion duration, corresponding to 90%-98% mass burn, increases by about 23%. This increase in combustion duration arises from the cooling of the near wall mixture in the boundary layer attributed to the presence of hydrogen. The enhancement in engine cooling load and subsequent reduction in the brake thermal efficiency with increasing hydrogen fraction is evident from the engine energy balance along with the cumulative heat release profiles. Copyright (C) 2015, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DECT evaluation of noncalc fied coronary artery plaque

Purpose: Composition of the coronary artery plaque is known to have critical role in heart attack. While calcified plaque can easily be diagnosed by conventional CT, it fails to distinguish between fibrous and lipid rich plaques. In the present paper, the authors discuss the experimental techniques and obtain a numerical algorithm by which the electron density (rho(e)) and the effective atomic number (Z(eff)) can be obtained from the dual energy computed tomography (DECT) data. The idea is to use this inversion method to characterize and distinguish between the lipid and fibrous coronary artery plaques. Methods: For the purpose of calibration of the CT machine, the authors prepare aqueous samples whose calculated values of (rho(e), Z(eff)) lie in the range of (2.65 x 10(23) <= rho(e) <= 3.64 x 10(23)/cm(3)) and (6.80 <= Z(eff) <= 8.90). The authors fill the phantom with these known samples and experimentally determine HU(V-1) and HU(V-2), with V-1,V-2 = 100 and 140 kVp, for the same pixels and thus determine the coefficients of inversion that allow us to determine (rho(e), Z(eff)) from the DECT data. The HU(100) and HU(140) for the coronary artery plaque are obtained by filling the channel of the coronary artery with a viscous solution of methyl cellulose in water, containing 2% contrast. These (rho(e), Z(eff)) values of the coronary artery plaque are used for their characterization on the basis of theoretical models of atomic compositions of the plaque materials. These results are compared with histopathological report. Results: The authors find that the calibration gives Pc with an accuracy of 3.5% while Z(eff) is found within 1% of the actual value, the confidence being 95%. The HU(100) and HU(140) are found to be considerably different for the same plaque at the same position and there is a linear trend between these two HU values. It is noted that pure lipid type plaques are practically nonexistent, and microcalcification, as observed in histopathology, has to be taken into account to explain the nature of the observed (rho(e), Z(eff)) data. This also enables us to judge the composition of the plaque in terms of basic model which considers the plaque to be composed of fibres, lipids, and microcalcification. Conclusions: This simple and reliable method has the potential as an effective modality to investigate the composition of noncalcified coronary artery plaques and thus help in their characterization. In this inversion method, (rho(e), Z(eff)) of the scanned sample can be found by eliminating the effects of the CT machine and also by ensuring that the determination of the two unknowns (rho(e), Z(eff)) does not interfere with each other and the nature of the plaque can be identified in terms of a three component model. (C) 2015 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Control dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With this model, we analysed the SARS epidemic data in Beijing. The data fitting gives the basic case reproduction number of 2.16 leading to the outbreak, and the variation of the effective reproduction number reflecting the control effect. Noticeably, our study shows that the response time and the strength of control measures have significant effects on the scale of the outbreak and the lasting time of the epidemic.