Les prédicteurs dynamiques (pré-traitement et en cours de traitement) en lien avec la récidive criminelle chez les agresseurs sexuels adultes

La récidive sexuelle est un sujet d’intérêt pour plusieurs chercheurs et intervenants qui travaillent auprès des délinquants sexuels. Afin de mieux prévenir la récidive sexuelle, il importe de bien connaître les causes sous-jacentes à cette problématique. De cette manière, il sera possible d’élaborer des programmes de traitement efficaces et spécifiques à la problématique. Au cours des dernières années, les études sur les prédicteurs de la récidive sexuelle ont mis l’accent essentiellement sur les prédicteurs statiques, mais aussi et de plus en plus sur les prédicteurs dynamiques. Cependant, il ressort de ces études que les caractéristiques inhérentes à l’implication du délinquant à l’intérieur de son programme de traitement ont été peu étudiées. Conséquemment, le but de cette étude est d’analyser les prédicteurs dynamiques de la récidive, l’alliance thérapeutique, la motivation en cours de traitement et le support social en lien à la récidive sexuelle. Pour ce faire, un échantillon de 299 agresseurs sexuels adultes de sexe masculin est pris en considération. Les données pour mener à terme les analyses statistiques sont recueillies avant le début du traitement et en cours de traitement. Trois types de récidive sont considérés : 1) sexuelle, 2) violente, 3) générale. Les variables indépendantes portent sur des outils psychométriques et sont de deux ordres : 1) pré-traitement, 2) en cours de traitement. Deux variables contrôles sont utilisées : 1) traitement complété ou non, 2) type de traitement; cognitivo-comportemental ou mixte. Ainsi, des analyses préliminaires (test T pour groupes indépendants) sont effectuées afin de sélectionner les variables utilisées pour la réalisation des analyses de survie. En raison de la faible prévalence de récidive sexuelle (5,4%), seules les récidives violentes (10,5%) et générales (18,7%) sont considérées. L’étude nous apprend que les résultats aux analyses de survie pour les récidives violentes et générales tendent à être en continuité à celles retrouvées dans les études existantes sur le sujet. Effectivement, l’étude actuelle informe de la pertinence de compléter un programme de traitement comme facteur de protection contribuant à réduire le risque probable de récidive. Le fait de présenter des croyances pédophiliques ou encore, de ne pas présenter de traits de personnalité compulsive sont des facteurs qui contribuent à augmenter les risques relatifs de récidive criminelle.

Fractional control with a smith predictor

The advantageous use of fractional calculus (FC) in the modeling and control of many dynamical systems has been recognized. In this paper, we study the control of a heat diffusion system based on the application of the FC concepts. Several algorithms are investigated and compared, when integrated within a Smith predictor control structure. Simulations are presented assessing the performance of the proposed fractional algorithms.

Integration methods in dynamic analysis

"Series title: Springerbriefs in applied sciences and technology, ISSN 2191-530X"

Dynamic arterial elastance to predict arterial pressure response to volume loading in preload-dependent patients

INTRODUCTION Hemodynamic resuscitation should be aimed at achieving not only adequate cardiac output but also sufficient mean arterial pressure (MAP) to guarantee adequate tissue perfusion pressure. Since the arterial pressure response to volume expansion (VE) depends on arterial tone, knowing whether a patient is preload-dependent provides only a partial solution to the problem. The objective of this study was to assess the ability of a functional evaluation of arterial tone by dynamic arterial elastance (Ea(dyn)), defined as the pulse pressure variation (PPV) to stroke volume variation (SVV) ratio, to predict the hemodynamic response in MAP to fluid administration in hypotensive, preload-dependent patients with acute circulatory failure. METHODS We performed a prospective clinical study in an adult medical/surgical intensive care unit in a tertiary care teaching hospital, including 25 patients with controlled mechanical ventilation who were monitored with the Vigileo(®) monitor, for whom the decision to give fluids was made because of the presence of acute circulatory failure, including arterial hypotension (MAP ≤65 mmHg or systolic arterial pressure <90 mmHg) and preserved preload responsiveness condition, defined as a SVV value ≥10%. RESULTS Before fluid infusion, Ea(dyn) was significantly different between MAP responders (MAP increase ≥15% after VE) and MAP nonresponders. VE-induced increases in MAP were strongly correlated with baseline Ea(dyn) (r(2) = 0.83; P < 0.0001). The only predictor of MAP increase was Ea(dyn) (area under the curve, 0.986 ± 0.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84-1). A baseline Ea(dyn) value >0.89 predicted a MAP increase after fluid administration with a sensitivity of 93.75% (95% CI, 69.8%-99.8%) and a specificity of 100% (95% CI, 66.4%-100%). CONCLUSIONS Functional assessment of arterial tone by Ea(dyn), measured as the PVV to SVV ratio, predicted arterial pressure response after volume loading in hypotensive, preload-dependent patients under controlled mechanical ventilation.

Combination of MRI and dynamic FET PET for initial glioma grading.

AIM: MRI and PET with 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine (FET) have been increasingly used to evaluate patients with gliomas. Our purpose was to assess the additive value of MR spectroscopy (MRS), diffusion imaging and dynamic FET-PET for glioma grading. PATIENTS, METHODS: 38 patients (42 ± 15 aged, F/M: 0.46) with untreated histologically proven brain gliomas were included. All underwent conventional MRI, MRS, diffusion sequences, and FET-PET within 3±4 weeks. Performances of tumour FET time-activity-curve, early-to-middle SUVmax ratio, choline / creatine ratio and ADC histogram distribution pattern for gliomas grading were assessed, as compared to histology. Combination of these parameters and respective odds were also evaluated. RESULTS: Tumour time-activity-curve reached the best accuracy (67%) when taken alone to distinguish between low and high-grade gliomas, followed by ADC histogram analysis (65%). Combination of time-activity-curve and ADC histogram analysis improved the sensitivity from 67% to 86% and the specificity from 63-67% to 100% (p < 0.008). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, negative slope of the tumour FET time-activity-curve however remains the best predictor of high-grade glioma (odds 7.6, SE 6.8, p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Combination of dynamic FET-PET and diffusion MRI reached good performance for gliomas grading. The use of FET-PET/MR may be highly relevant in the initial assessment of primary brain tumours.

Combination of MRI and dynamic FET PET for initial glioma grading.

AIM: MRI and PET with 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine (FET) have been increasingly used to evaluate patients with gliomas. Our purpose was to assess the additive value of MR spectroscopy (MRS), diffusion imaging and dynamic FET-PET for glioma grading. PATIENTS, METHODS: 38 patients (42 ± 15 aged, F/M: 0.46) with untreated histologically proven brain gliomas were included. All underwent conventional MRI, MRS, diffusion sequences, and FET-PET within 3±4 weeks. Performances of tumour FET time-activity-curve, early-to-middle SUVmax ratio, choline / creatine ratio and ADC histogram distribution pattern for gliomas grading were assessed, as compared to histology. Combination of these parameters and respective odds were also evaluated. RESULTS: Tumour time-activity-curve reached the best accuracy (67%) when taken alone to distinguish between low and high-grade gliomas, followed by ADC histogram analysis (65%). Combination of time-activity-curve and ADC histogram analysis improved the sensitivity from 67% to 86% and the specificity from 63-67% to 100% (p < 0.008). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, negative slope of the tumour FET time-activity-curve however remains the best predictor of high-grade glioma (odds 7.6, SE 6.8, p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Combination of dynamic FET-PET and diffusion MRI reached good performance for gliomas grading. The use of FET-PET/MR may be highly relevant in the initial assessment of primary brain tumours.

Variación de volumen sistólico como predictor de hipovolemia en pacientes pediátricos con choque séptico

El compromiso del sistema cardiovascular es frecuente en los pacientes en estado crítico, por tanto la monitorización hemodinámica es esencial para un tratamiento apropiado dirigido a objetivos terapéuticos en este grupo de pacientes. La monitorización hemodinámica del gasto cardíaco y la estimación del volumen intravascular son fundamentales para el manejo de los pacientes pediátricos en estado crítico, la medición del gasto cardíaco es uno de los principales elementos para evaluar la situación hemodinámica y la perfusión tisular de un paciente ayudando a dirigir el tratamiento y a monitorizar la respuesta clínica en pacientes con choque séptico. La hipovolemia es una causa común para la falla circulatoria en pacientes en condición crítica, el encontrar un método confiable para medición de precarga es importante para guiar la administración de líquidos. Tradicionalmente se han utilizado medidas de la volemia asociadas como la presión venosa central (PVC), frecuencia cardiaca (FC), presión arterial (PA) y el gasto urinario. Estos indicadores tienen grandes factores de distracción que hacen que su valor sea limitado y por tanto se tengan que buscar alternativas más confiables. En años recientes se han postulado parámetros dinámicos para la evaluación de la precarga, entre ellos uno de los mas ampliamente estudiado es la medición de la variabilidad de Volumen sistólico (VVS); Este valor se basa en el concepto de que durante la inspiración, la disminución del retorno venoso produce una disminución del Volumen sistólico, lo cual se manifiesta como una disminución en la onda de pulso; Por tanto en una situación de hipovolemia esta diferencia será mayor, dado que será más evidente la disminución del volumen al final de la diástole. En adultos este parámetro se ha convertido en una herramienta útil para evaluar estado de volumen de los pacientes que se encuentran en estado crítico y ha demostrado su utilidad para predecir respuesta a administración de fluidos en diferentes poblaciones de pacientes. En la actualidad no hay estudios en niños que comparen la medición de VVS contra dichas medidas tradicionales de volemia.

DCE: the dynamic conditional execution in a multipath control independent architecture

This thesis presents DCE, or Dynamic Conditional Execution, as an alternative to reduce the cost of mispredicted branches. The basic idea is to fetch all paths produced by a branch that obey certain restrictions regarding complexity and size. As a result, a smaller number of predictions is performed, and therefore, a lesser number of branches are mispredicted. DCE fetches through selected branches avoiding disruptions in the fetch flow when these branches are fetched. Both paths of selected branches are executed but only the correct path commits. In this thesis we propose an architecture to execute multiple paths of selected branches. Branches are selected based on the size and other conditions. Simple and complex branches can be dynamically predicated without requiring a special instruction set nor special compiler optimizations. Furthermore, a technique to reduce part of the overhead generated by the execution of multiple paths is proposed. The performance achieved reaches levels of up to 12% when comparing a Local predictor used in DCE against a Global predictor used in the reference machine. When both machines use a Local predictor, the speedup is increased by an average of 3-3.5%.

Dynamic Optimization of SLA-Based Services Scaling Rules

Current advanced cloud infrastructure management solutions allow scheduling actions for dynamically changing the number of running virtual machines (VMs). This approach, however, does not guarantee that the scheduled number of VMs will properly handle the actual user generated workload, especially if the user utilization patterns will change. We propose using a dynamically generated scaling model for the VMs containing the services of the distributed applications, which is able to react to the variations in the number of application users. We answer the following question: How to dynamically decide how many services of each type are needed in order to handle a larger workload within the same time constraints? We describe a mechanism for dynamically composing the SLAs for controlling the scaling of distributed services by combining data analysis mechanisms with application benchmarking using multiple VM configurations. Based on processing of multiple application benchmarks generated data sets we discover a set of service monitoring metrics able to predict critical Service Level Agreement (SLA) parameters. By combining this set of predictor metrics with a heuristic for selecting the appropriate scaling-out paths for the services of distributed applications, we show how SLA scaling rules can be inferred and then used for controlling the runtime scale-in and scale-out of distributed services. We validate our architecture and models by performing scaling experiments with a distributed application representative for the enterprise class of information systems. We show how dynamically generated SLAs can be successfully used for controlling the management of distributed services scaling.

Dynamic Activity-Related Incentives for Physical Activity.

The present studies adopted the theoretical framework of activity- and purpose-related incentives (Rheinberg, 2008) to explain the maintenance of physical activity. We hypothesized that activity-related incentives (e.g., “fun”) increase more than purpose-related incentives (e.g., “health”) between the initiation and maintenance phase of physical activity. Additionally, change in activity-related incentives was hypothesized to be a better predictor of maintenance of physical activity than change in purpose-related incentives. Two correlative field studies with rehabilitation patients (Study 1) and Nordic Walkers (Study 2) were conducted to test the hypotheses. Participants’ incentives of physical activity were measured at the beginning of exercising and two weeks (Study 1; T2) and three months (Study 2; T2) later. At T2, participants were asked for their current physical activity. Both studies showed a greater change of activity-related incentives than purpose-related incentives. Furthermore, change in activity-related incentives was more predictive of the maintenance of physical activity than change in purpose-related incentives. The results showed the important role of activity-related incentives in maintenance of physical activity. The theoretical contribution to physical activity maintenance research and practical implications for health promotion programs were discussed.

Combination of MRI and dynamic FET PET for initial glioma grading

AIM MRI and PET with 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine (FET) have been increasingly used to evaluate patients with gliomas. Our purpose was to assess the additive value of MR spectroscopy (MRS), diffusion imaging and dynamic FET-PET for glioma grading. PATIENTS, METHODS 38 patients (42 ± 15 aged, F/M: 0.46) with untreated histologically proven brain gliomas were included. All underwent conventional MRI, MRS, diffusion sequences, and FET-PET within 3±4 weeks. Performances of tumour FET time-activity-curve, early-to-middle SUVmax ratio, choline / creatine ratio and ADC histogram distribution pattern for gliomas grading were assessed, as compared to histology. Combination of these parameters and respective odds were also evaluated. RESULTS Tumour time-activity-curve reached the best accuracy (67%) when taken alone to distinguish between low and high-grade gliomas, followed by ADC histogram analysis (65%). Combination of time-activity-curve and ADC histogram analysis improved the sensitivity from 67% to 86% and the specificity from 63-67% to 100% (p < 0.008). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, negative slope of the tumour FET time-activity-curve however remains the best predictor of high-grade glioma (odds 7.6, SE 6.8, p = 0.022). CONCLUSION Combination of dynamic FET-PET and diffusion MRI reached good performance for gliomas grading. The use of FET-PET/MR may be highly relevant in the initial assessment of primary brain tumours.

Mechanical properties and comparisons of dynamic and static Young's moduli at DSDP Holes 69-504B, 70-504B and 83-504B

From laboratory tests under simulated downhole conditions we tentatively conclude that the higher the triaxial-compressive strength, the lower the drilling rate of basalts from DSDP Hole 504B. Because strength is roughly proportional to Young's modulus of elasticity, which is related in turn to seismic-wave velocities, one may be able to estimate drilling rates from routine shipboard measurements. However, further research is needed to verify that P-wave velocity is a generally useful predictor of relative drilling rate.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.

Reference Values For High-density Lipoprotein Particle Size And Volume By Dynamic Light Scattering In A Brazilian Population Sample And Their Relationships With Metabolic Parameters.

Current data indicate that the size of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) may be considered an important marker for cardiovascular disease risk. We established reference values of mean HDL size and volume in an asymptomatic representative Brazilian population sample (n=590) and their associations with metabolic parameters by gender. Size and volume were determined in HDL isolated from plasma by polyethyleneglycol precipitation of apoB-containing lipoproteins and measured using the dynamic light scattering (DLS) technique. Although the gender and age distributions agreed with other studies, the mean HDL size reference value was slightly lower than in some other populations. Both HDL size and volume were influenced by gender and varied according to age. HDL size was associated with age and HDL-C (total population); non- white ethnicity and CETP inversely (females); HDL-C and PLTP mass (males). On the other hand, HDL volume was determined only by HDL-C (total population and in both genders) and by PLTP mass (males). The reference values for mean HDL size and volume using the DLS technique were established in an asymptomatic and representative Brazilian population sample, as well as their related metabolic factors. HDL-C was a major determinant of HDL size and volume, which were differently modulated in females and in males.

Interaction Between Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Dynamic Nonlinear Model.

The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.