Distribution-Free Bounds for Serial Correlation Coefficients in Heteroskedastic Symmetric Time Series

We consider the problem of testing whether the observations X1, ..., Xn of a time series are independent with unspecified (possibly nonidentical) distributions symmetric about a common known median. Various bounds on the distributions of serial correlation coefficients are proposed: exponential bounds, Eaton-type bounds, Chebyshev bounds and Berry-Esséen-Zolotarev bounds. The bounds are exact in finite samples, distribution-free and easy to compute. The performance of the bounds is evaluated and compared with traditional serial dependence tests in a simulation experiment. The procedures proposed are applied to U.S. data on interest rates (commercial paper rate).

An outline of a one semester course on distribution-free statistical inference: hypothesis testing (as given at Columbia University, Autumn 1958)

Mode of access: Internet.

Free-form optical systems for nonimaging applications : Sistemas ópticos anamórficos para aplicaciones anidólicas

La óptica anidólica es una rama de la óptica cuyo desarrollo comenzó a mediados de la década de 1960. Este relativamente nuevo campo de la óptica se centra en la transferencia eficiente de la luz, algo necesario en muchas aplicaciones, entre las que destacamos los concentradores solares y los sistemas de iluminación. Las soluciones de la óptica clásica a los problemas de la transferencia de energía de la luz sólo son adecuadas cuando los rayos de luz son paraxiales. La condición paraxial no se cumple en la mayoría de las aplicaciones para concentración e iluminación. Esta tesis contiene varios diseños free-form (aquellos que no presentan ninguna simetría, ni de rotación ni lineal) cuyas aplicaciones van destinadas a estos dos campos. El término nonimaging viene del hecho de que estos sistemas ópticos no necesitan formar una imagen del objeto, aunque no formar la imagen no es una condición necesaria. Otra palabra que se utiliza a veces en lugar de nonimaging es la palabra anidólico, viene del griego "an+eidolon" y tiene el mismo significado. La mayoría de los sistemas ópticos diseñados para aplicaciones anidólicas no presentan ninguna simetría, es decir, son free-form (anamórficos). Los sistemas ópticos free-form están siendo especialmente relevantes durante los últimos años gracias al desarrollo de las herramientas para su fabricación como máquinas de moldeo por inyección y el mecanizado multieje. Sin embargo, solo recientemente se han desarrollado técnicas de diseño anidólicas capaces de cumplir con estos grados de libertad. En aplicaciones de iluminación el método SMS3D permite diseñar dos superficies free-form para controlar las fuentes de luz extensas. En los casos en que se requiere una elevada asimetría de la fuente, el objeto o las restricciones volumétricos, las superficies free-form permiten obtener soluciones de mayor eficiencia, o disponer de menos elementos en comparación con las soluciones de simetría de rotación, dado que las superficies free-form tienen más grados de libertad y pueden realizar múltiples funciones debido a su naturaleza anamórfica. Los concentradores anidólicos son muy adecuados para la captación de energía solar, ya que el objetivo no es la reproducción de una imagen exacta del sol, sino sencillamente la captura de su energía. En este momento, el campo de la concentración fotovoltaica (CPV) tiende hacia sistemas de alta concentración con el fin de compensar el gasto de las células solares multi-unión (MJ) utilizadas como receptores, reduciendo su área. El interés en el uso de células MJ radica en su alta eficiencia de conversión. Para obtener sistemas competitivos en aplicaciones terrestres se recurre a sistemas fotovoltaicos de alta concentración (HCPV), con factores de concentración geométrica por encima de 500x. Estos sistemas se componen de dos (o más) elementos ópticos (espejos y/o lentes). En los sistemas presentados a lo largo de este trabajo se presentan ejemplos de concentradores HCPV con elementos reflexivos como etapa primaria, así como concentradores con elementos refractivos (lente de Fresnel). Con la necesidad de aumentar la eficiencia de los sistemas HCPV reales y con el fin de proporcionar la división más eficiente del espectro solar, células conteniendo cuatro o más uniones (con un potencial de alcanzar eficiencias de más del 45% a una concentración de cientos de soles) se exploran hoy en día. En esta tesis se presenta una de las posibles arquitecturas de división del espectro (spectrum-splitting en la literatura anglosajona) que utilizan células de concentración comercial. Otro campo de aplicación de la óptica nonimaging es la iluminación, donde es necesario proporcionar un patrón de distribución de la iluminación específico. La iluminación de estado sólido (SSL), basada en la electroluminiscencia de materiales semiconductores, está proporcionando fuentes de luz para aplicaciones de iluminación general. En la última década, los diodos emisores de luz (LED) de alto brillo han comenzado a reemplazar a las fuentes de luz convencionales debido a la superioridad en la calidad de la luz emitida, elevado tiempo de vida, compacidad y ahorro de energía. Los colimadores utilizados con LEDs deben cumplir con requisitos tales como tener una alta eficiencia, un alto control del haz de luz, una mezcla de color espacial y una gran compacidad. Presentamos un colimador de luz free-form con microestructuras capaz de conseguir buena colimación y buena mezcla de colores con una fuente de LED RGGB. Una buena mezcla de luz es importante no sólo para simplificar el diseño óptico de la luminaria sino también para evitar hacer binning de los chips. La mezcla de luz óptica puede reducir los costes al evitar la modulación por ancho de pulso y otras soluciones electrónicas patentadas para regulación y ajuste de color. Esta tesis consta de cuatro capítulos. Los capítulos que contienen la obra original de esta tesis son precedidos por un capítulo introductorio donde se presentan los conceptos y definiciones básicas de la óptica geométrica y en el cual se engloba la óptica nonimaging. Contiene principios de la óptica no formadora de imagen junto con la descripción de sus problemas y métodos de diseño. Asimismo se describe el método de Superficies Múltiples Simultáneas (SMS), que destaca por su versatilidad y capacidad de controlar varios haces de rayos. Adicionalmente también se describe la integración Köhler y sus aplicaciones en el campo de la energía fotovoltaica. La concentración fotovoltaica y la iluminación de estado sólido son introducidas junto con la revisión de su estado actual. El Segundo y Tercer Capítulo contienen diseños ópticos avanzados con aplicación en la concentración solar principalmente, mientras que el Cuarto Capítulo describe el colimador free-form con surcos que presenta buena mezcla de colores para aplicaciones de iluminación. El Segundo Capítulo describe dos concentradores ópticos HCPV diseñados con el método SMS en tres dimensiones (SMS3D) que llevan a cabo integración Köhler en dos direcciones con el fin de proporcionar una distribución de irradiancia uniforme libre de aberraciones cromáticas sobre la célula solar. Uno de los diseños es el concentrador XXR free-form diseñado con el método SMS3D, donde el espejo primario (X) y la lente secundaria (R) se dividen en cuatro sectores simétricos y llevan a cabo la integración Köhler (proporcionando cuatro unidades del array Köhler), mientras que el espejo intermedio (X) presenta simetría rotacional. Otro concentrador HCPV presentado es el Fresnel-RXI (FRXI) con una lente de Fresnel funcionando como elemento primario (POE) y una lente RXI como elemento óptico secundario (SOE), que presenta configuración 4-fold con el fin de realizar la integración Köhler. Las lentes RXI son dispositivos nonimaging conocidos, pero su aplicación como elemento secundario es novedosa. Los concentradores XXR y FRXI Köhler son ejemplos académicos de muy alta concentración (más de 2,000x, mientras que los sistemas convencionales hoy en día no suelen llegar a 1,000x) preparados para las células solares N-unión (con N>3), que probablemente requerirán una mayor concentración y alta uniformidad espectral de irradiancia con el fin de obtener sistemas CPV terrestres eficientes y rentables. Ambos concentradores están diseñados maximizando funciones de mérito como la eficiencia óptica, el producto concentración-aceptancia (CAP) y la uniformidad de irradiancia sobre la célula libre de la aberración cromática (integración Köhler). El Tercer Capítulo presenta una arquitectura para la división del espectro solar basada en un módulo HCPV con alta concentración (500x) y ángulo de aceptancia alto (>1º) que tiene por objeto reducir ambas fuentes de pérdidas de las células triple unión (3J) comerciales: el uso eficiente del espectro solar y la luz reflejada de los contactos metálicos y de la superficie de semiconductor. El módulo para la división del espectro utiliza el espectro solar más eficiente debido a la combinación de una alta eficiencia de una célula de concentración 3J (GaInP/GaInAs/Ge) y una de contacto posterior (BPC) de concentración de silicio (Si), así como la técnica de confinamiento externo para la recuperación de la luz reflejada por la célula 3J con el fin de ser reabsorbida por la célula. En la arquitectura propuesta, la célula 3J opera con su ganancia de corriente optimizada (concentración geométrica de 500x), mientras que la célula de silicio trabaja cerca de su óptimo también (135x). El módulo de spectrum-splitting consta de una lente de Fresnel plana como POE y un concentrador RXI free-form como SOE con un filtro paso-banda integrado en él. Tanto POE como SOE realizan la integración Köhler para producir homogeneización de luz sobre la célula. El filtro paso banda envía los fotones IR en la banda 900-1,150nm a la célula de silicio. Hay varios aspectos prácticos de la arquitectura del módulo presentado que ayudan a reducir la complejidad de los sistemas spectrum-splitting (el filtro y el secundario forman una sola pieza sólida, ambas células son coplanarias simplificándose el cableado y la disipación de calor, etc.). Prototipos prueba-de-concepto han sido ensamblados y probados a fin de demostrar la fabricabilidad del filtro y su rendimiento cuando se combina con la técnica de reciclaje de luz externa. Los resultados obtenidos se ajustan bastante bien a los modelos y a las simulaciones e invitan al desarrollo de una versión más compleja de este prototipo en el futuro. Dos colimadores sólidos con surcos free-form se presentan en el Cuarto Capítulo. Ambos diseños ópticos están diseñados originalmente usando el método SMS3D. La segunda superficie ópticamente activa está diseñada a posteriori como una superficie con surcos. El diseño inicial de dos espejos (XX) está diseñado como prueba de concepto. En segundo lugar, el diseño RXI free-form es comparable con los colimadores RXI existentes. Se trata de un diseño muy compacto y eficiente que proporciona una muy buena mezcla de colores cuando funciona con LEDs RGB fuera del eje óptico como en los RGB LEDs convencionales. Estos dos diseños son dispositivos free-form diseñados con la intención de mejorar las propiedades de mezcla de colores de los dispositivos no aplanáticos RXI con simetría de revolución y la eficiencia de los aplanáticos, logrando una buena colimación y una buena mezcla de colores. La capacidad de mezcla de colores del dispositivo no-aplanático mejora añadiendo características de un aplanático a su homólogo simétrico sin pérdida de eficiencia. En el caso del diseño basado en RXI, su gran ventaja consiste en su menor coste de fabricación ya que el proceso de metalización puede evitarse. Aunque algunos de los componentes presentan formas muy complejas, los costes de fabricación son relativamente insensibles a la complejidad del molde, especialmente en el caso de la producción en masa (tales como inyección de plástico), ya que el coste del molde se reparte entre todas las piezas fabricadas. Por último, las últimas dos secciones son las conclusiones y futuras líneas de investigación. ABSTRACT Nonimaging optics is a branch of optics whose development began in the mid-1960s. This rather new field of optics focuses on the efficient light transfer necessary in many applications, among which we highlight solar concentrators and illumination systems. The classical optics solutions to the problems of light energy transfer are only appropriate when the light rays are paraxial. The paraxial condition is not met in most applications for the concentration and illumination. This thesis explores several free-form designs (with neither rotational nor linear symmetry) whose applications are intended to cover the above mentioned areas and more. The term nonimaging comes from the fact that these optical systems do not need to form an image of the object, although it is not a necessary condition not to form an image. Another word sometimes used instead of nonimaging is anidolic, and it comes from the Greek “an+eidolon” and has the same meaning. Most of the optical systems designed for nonimaging applications are without any symmetry, i.e. free-form. Free-form optical systems become especially relevant lately with the evolution of free-form tooling (injection molding machines, multi-axis machining techniques, etc.). Nevertheless, only recently there are nonimaging design techniques that are able to meet these degrees of freedom. In illumination applications, the SMS3D method allows designing two free-form surfaces to control very well extended sources. In cases when source, target or volumetric constrains have very asymmetric requirements free-form surfaces are offering solutions with higher efficiency or with fewer elements in comparison with rotationally symmetric solutions, as free-forms have more degrees of freedom and they can perform multiple functions due to their free-form nature. Anidolic concentrators are well suited for the collection of solar energy, because the goal is not the reproduction of an exact image of the sun, but instead the collection of its energy. At this time, Concentration Photovoltaics (CPV) field is turning to high concentration systems in order to compensate the expense of multi-junction (MJ) solar cells used as receivers by reducing its area. Interest in the use of MJ cells lies in their very high conversion efficiency. High Concentration Photovoltaic systems (HCPV) with geometric concentration of more than 500x are required in order to have competitive systems in terrestrial applications. These systems comprise two (or more) optical elements, mirrors and/or lenses. Systems presented in this thesis encompass both main types of HCPV architectures: concentrators with primary reflective element and concentrators with primary refractive element (Fresnel lens). Demand for the efficiency increase of the actual HCPV systems as well as feasible more efficient partitioning of the solar spectrum, leads to exploration of four or more junction solar cells or submodules. They have a potential of reaching over 45% efficiency at concentration of hundreds of suns. One possible architectures of spectrum splitting module using commercial concentration cells is presented in this thesis. Another field of application of nonimaging optics is illumination, where a specific illuminance distribution pattern is required. The Solid State Lighting (SSL) based on semiconductor electroluminescence provides light sources for general illumination applications. In the last decade high-brightness Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) started replacing conventional light sources due to their superior output light quality, unsurpassed lifetime, compactness and energy savings. Collimators used with LEDs have to meet requirements like high efficiency, high beam control, color and position mixing, as well as a high compactness. We present a free-form collimator with microstructures that performs good collimation and good color mixing with RGGB LED source. Good light mixing is important not only for simplifying luminaire optical design but also for avoiding die binning. Optical light mixing may reduce costs by avoiding pulse-width modulation and other patented electronic solutions for dimming and color tuning. This thesis comprises four chapters. Chapters containing the original work of this thesis are preceded by the introductory chapter that addresses basic concepts and definitions of geometrical optics on which nonimaging is developed. It contains fundamentals of nonimaging optics together with the description of its design problems, principles and methods, and with the Simultaneous Multiple Surface (SMS) method standing out for its versatility and ability to control several bundles of rays. Köhler integration and its applications in the field of photovoltaics are described as well. CPV and SSL fields are introduced together with the review on their background and their current status. Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 contain advanced optical designs with primarily application in solar concentration; meanwhile Chapter 4 portrays the free-form V-groove collimator with good color mixing property for illumination application. Chapter 2 describes two HCPV optical concentrators designed with the SMS method in three dimensions (SMS3D). Both concentrators represent Köhler integrator arrays that provide uniform irradiance distribution free from chromatic aberrations on the solar cell. One of the systems is the XXR free-form concentrator designed with the SMS3D method. The primary mirror (X) of this concentrator and secondary lens (R) are divided in four symmetric sectors (folds) that perform Köhler integration; meanwhile the intermediate mirror (X) is rotationally symmetric. Second HCPV concentrator is the Fresnel-RXI (FRXI) with flat Fresnel lens as the Primary Optical Element (POE) and an RXI lens as the Secondary Optical Element (SOE). This architecture manifests 4-fold configuration for performing Köhler integration (4 array units), as well. The RXI lenses are well-known nonimaging devices, but their application as SOE is novel. Both XXR and FRXI Köhler HCPV concentrators are academic examples of very high concentration (more than 2,000x meanwhile conventional systems nowadays have up to 1,000x) prepared for the near future N-junction (N>3) solar cells. In order to have efficient and cost-effective terrestrial CPV systems, those cells will probably require higher concentrations and high spectral irradiance uniformity. Both concentrators are designed by maximizing merit functions: the optical efficiency, concentration-acceptance angle (CAP) and cell-irradiance uniformity free from chromatic aberrations (Köhler integration). Chapter 3 presents the spectrum splitting architecture based on a HCPV module with high concentration (500x) and high acceptance angle (>1º). This module aims to reduce both sources of losses of the actual commercial triple-junction (3J) solar cells with more efficient use of the solar spectrum and with recovering the light reflected from the 3J cells’ grid lines and semiconductor surface. The solar spectrum is used more efficiently due to the combination of a high efficiency 3J concentration cell (GaInP/GaInAs/Ge) and external Back-Point-Contact (BPC) concentration silicon (Si) cell. By employing external confinement techniques, the 3J cell’s reflections are recovered in order to be re-absorbed by the cell. In the proposed concentrator architecture, the 3J cell operates at its optimized current gain (at geometrical concentration of 500x), while the Si cell works near its optimum, as well (135x). The spectrum splitting module consists of a flat Fresnel lens (as the POE), and a free-form RXI-type concentrator with a band-pass filter embedded in it (as the SOE), both POE and SOE performing Köhler integration to produce light homogenization. The band-pass filter sends the IR photons in the 900-1,150nm band to the Si cell. There are several practical aspects of presented module architecture that help reducing the added complexity of the beam splitting systems: the filter and secondary are forming a single solid piece, both cells are coplanar so the heat management and wiring is simplified, etc. Two proof-of-concept prototypes are assembled and tested in order to prove filter manufacturability and performance, as well as the potential of external light recycling technique. Obtained measurement results agree quite well with models and simulations, and show an opened path to manufacturing of the Fresnel RXI-type secondary concentrator with spectrum splitting strategy. Two free-form solid V-groove collimators are presented in Chapter 4. Both free-form collimators are originally designed with the SMS3D method. The second mirrored optically active surface is converted in a grooved surface a posteriori. Initial two mirror (XX) design is presented as a proof-of-concept. Second, RXI free-form design is comparable with existing RXI collimators as it is a highly compact and a highly efficient design. It performs very good color mixing of the RGGB LED sources placed off-axis like in conventional RGB LEDs. Collimators described here improve color mixing property of the prior art rotationally symmetric no-aplanatic RXI devices, and the efficiency of the aplanatic ones, accomplishing both good collimation and good color mixing. Free-form V-groove collimators enhance the no-aplanatic device's blending capabilities by adding aplanatic features to its symmetric counterpart with no loss in efficiency. Big advantage of the RXI design is its potentially lower manufacturing cost, since the process of metallization may be avoided. Although some components are very complicated for shaping, the manufacturing costs are relatively insensitive to the complexity of the mold especially in the case of mass production (such as plastic injection), as the cost of the mold is spread in many parts. Finally, last two sections are conclusions and future lines of investigation.

A new method for constructing exact tests without making any assumptions

We present a new method for constructing exact distribution-free tests (and confidence intervals) for variables that can generate more than two possible outcomes.This method separates the search for an exact test from the goal to create a non-randomized test. Randomization is used to extend any exact test relating to meansof variables with finitely many outcomes to variables with outcomes belonging to agiven bounded set. Tests in terms of variance and covariance are reduced to testsrelating to means. Randomness is then eliminated in a separate step.This method is used to create confidence intervals for the difference between twomeans (or variances) and tests of stochastic inequality and correlation.

Asymptotic robust inferences in the analysis of mean and covariance structures

Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Decision making in uncertain and changing environments

We consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertainand changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discountsfuture payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm thatperforms almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts orbenchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agentis sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgettingdistant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant pastequally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.

Computationally Efficient Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Returns and Volatilities in ARCH and GARCH Processes

We propose a novel, simple, efficient and distribution-free re-sampling technique for developing prediction intervals for returns and volatilities following ARCH/GARCH models. In particular, our key idea is to employ a Box–Jenkins linear representation of an ARCH/GARCH equation and then to adapt a sieve bootstrap procedure to the nonlinear GARCH framework. Our simulation studies indicate that the new re-sampling method provides sharp and well calibrated prediction intervals for both returns and volatilities while reducing computational costs by up to 100 times, compared to other available re-sampling techniques for ARCH/GARCH models. The proposed procedure is illustrated by an application to Yen/U.S. dollar daily exchange rate data.

‘Modeling and Analysis of Competing Risks Data’

there has been much research on analyzing various forms of competing risks data. Nevertheless, there are several occasions in survival studies, where the existing models and methodologies are inadequate for the analysis competing risks data. ldentifiabilty problem and various types of and censoring induce more complications in the analysis of competing risks data than in classical survival analysis. Parametric models are not adequate for the analysis of competing risks data since the assumptions about the underlying lifetime distributions may not hold well. Motivated by this, in the present study. we develop some new inference procedures, which are completely distribution free for the analysis of competing risks data.

Artificial Cavities and Nest Site Selection by Puerto Rican Parrots: a Multiscale Assessment

We examined nest site selection by Puerto Rican Parrots, a secondary cavity nester, at several spatial scales using the nest entrance as the central focal point relative to 20 habitat and spatial variables. The Puerto Rican Parrot is unique in that, since 2001, all known nesting in the wild has occurred in artificial cavities, which also provided us with an opportunity to evaluate nest site selection without confounding effects of the actual nest cavity characteristics. Because of the data limitations imposed by the small population size of this critically endangered endemic species, we employed a distribution-free statistical simulation approach to assess site selection relative to characteristics of used and unused nesting sites. Nest sites selected by Puerto Rican Parrots were characterized by greater horizontal and vertical visibility from the nest entrance, greater density of mature sierra palms, and a more westerly and leeward orientation of nest entrances than unused sites. Our results suggest that nest site selection in this species is an adaptive response to predation pressure, to which the parrots respond by selecting nest sites offering advantages in predator detection and avoidance at all stages of the nesting cycle. We conclude that identifying and replicating the “nest gestalt” of successful nesting sites may facilitate conservation efforts for this and other endangered avian species.

A inclusão educacional de alunos com necessidades educacionais especiais frente ao aspecto atitudinal do corpo docente nos primeiros e sextos anos do ensino fundamental

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Determinação de vazões extremas para diversos períodos de retorno para o Rio Paraguai utilizando métodos estatísticos

No presente trabalho foram analisadas as distribuições de probabilidade teórica Normal, Log-Normal, Exponencial, Gama e Weibull, para estimar as vazões máximas e mínimas anuais para o rio Paraguai, utilizando dados de uma estação fluviométrica localizado na cidade de Cáceres-MT. Os testes de Kolmogorov-Smirnov e Qui-Quadrado foram utilizados para verificar a aderência das probabilidades estimadas às freqüências observadas. A série utilizada compreende vazões máximas e mínimas anuais dos anos de 1966 a 2003, excluindo- se dados com falhas. Verificou-se que o melhor ajuste dos valores anuais de vazão máximas e mínimas são referentes a distribuição Gama e Weibull, respectivamente, conforme demonstrado pelo teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Palavras-chave: Previsão de Vazão, teste de aderência.

Comparação das águas dos rios Jaguari e Atibaia na região de lançamento de efluente de indústria petroquímica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)