Stochastic growth models for analyzing crustacean data

The contemporary methodology for growth models of organisms is based on continuous trajectories and thus it hinders us from modelling stepwise growth in crustacean populations. Growth models for fish are normally assumed to follow a continuous function, but a different type of model is needed for crustacean growth. Crustaceans must moult in order for them to grow. The growth of crustaceans is a discontinuous process due to the periodical shedding of the exoskeleton in moulting. The stepwise growth of crustaceans through the moulting process makes the growth estimation more complex. Stochastic approaches can be used to model discontinuous growth or what are commonly known as "jumps" (Figure 1). However, in stochastic growth model we need to ensure that the stochastic growth model results in only positive jumps. In view of this, we will introduce a subordinator that is a special case of a Levy process. A subordinator is a non-decreasing Levy process, that will assist in modelling crustacean growth for better understanding of the individual variability and stochasticity in moulting periods and increments. We develop the estimation methods for parameter estimation and illustrate them with the help of a dataset from laboratory experiments. The motivational dataset is from the ornate rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, which can be found between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Due to the presence of sex effects on the growth (Munday et al., 2004), we estimate the growth parameters separately for each sex. Since all hard parts are shed too often, the exact age determination of a lobster can be challenging. However, the growth parameters for the aforementioned moult processes from tank data being able to estimate through: (i) inter-moult periods, and (ii) moult increment. We will attempt to derive a joint density, which is made up of two functions: one for moult increments and the other for time intervals between moults. We claim these functions are conditionally independent given pre-moult length and the inter-moult periods. The variables moult increments and inter-moult periods are said to be independent because of the Markov property or conditional probability. Hence, the parameters in each function can be estimated separately. Subsequently, we integrate both of the functions through a Monte Carlo method. We can therefore obtain a population mean for crustacean growth (e. g. red curve in Figure 1). [GRAPHICS]

Discontinuous growth mechanisms of mode II crack under high-speed impact conditions

A recoverable plate impact testing technology has been used for studying the growth mechanisms of mode II crack. The results show that interactions of microcracks ahead of a crack tip cause the crack growth unsteadily. Failure mode transitions of materials were observed. Based on the observations, a discontinuous crack growth model was established. Analysis shows that the shear crack grows unsteady as the growth speed is between the Rayleigh wave speed c(R) and the shear wave speed c(s); however, when the growth speed approaches root 2c(s), the crack grows steadily. The transient microcrack growth makes the main crack speed to jump from subsonic to intersonic and the steady growth of all the sub-cracks leads the main crack to grow stably at an intersonic speed.

The Role of Growth Trajectories in Classifying Fetal Growth Restriction

OBJECTIVE: To examine the validity of a growth trajectory method to discriminate between pathologically and constitutionally undergrown fetuses using repeated measures of estimated fetal weight.

METHODS: In a prospective, observational, multicenter study in Ireland, 1,116 women with a growth-restricted fetus diagnosed participated with the objective of evaluating ultrasound findings as predictors of pediatric morbidity and mortality. Fetal growth trajectories were based on estimated fetal weight.

RESULTS: Between 22 weeks of gestation and term, two fetal growth trajectories were identified: normal (96.7%) and pathologic (3.3%). Compared with the normal trajectory, the pathologic trajectory was associated with an increased risk for preeclampsia (odds ratio [OR] 8.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6–23.4), increased umbilical artery resistance at 30 weeks of gestation (OR 12.6, 95% CI 4.6–34.1) or 34 weeks of gestation (OR 28.0, 95% CI 8.9–87.7), reduced middle cerebral artery resistance at 30 weeks of gestation (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.12–0.96) or 34 weeks of gestation (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.03–0.74), lower gestational age at delivery (mean 32.02 weeks of gestation compared with 38.02 weeks of gestation; P<.001), and higher perinatal complications (OR 21.5, 95% CI 10.5–44.2). In addition, 89.2% of newborns with pathologic fetal growth were admitted to neonatal intensive care units compared with 25.9% of those with normal growth.

CONCLUSIONS: Fetal growth trajectory analysis reliably differentiated fetuses with a pathologic growth pattern among a group of women with growth-restricted fetuses. With further development, this approach could provide clarity to how we define, identify, and ultimately manage pathologic fetal growth.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II

Comparing growth trajectories of risk behaviors from late adolescence through young adulthood: An accelerated design

Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of alcohol use, drinking to the point of drunkenness, smoking, cannabis use, deviance, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior were compared in a Swiss community sample (N = 2,843). Using a longitudinal cohort-sequential approach to link multiple assessments with 3 waves of data for each individual, the studied period spanned the ages of 16 to 29 years. Although smoking had a higher prevalence, both smoking and drinking up to the point of drunkenness followed an inverted U-shaped curve. Alcohol consumption was also best described by a quadratic model, though largely stable at a high level through the late 20s. Sexual risk behavior increased slowly from age 16 to age 22 and then remained largely stable. In contrast, cannabis use and deviance linearly declined from age 16 to age 29. Young men were at higher risk for all behaviors than were young women, but apart from deviance, patterning over time was similar for both sexes. Results about the timing of increase and decline as well as differences between risk behaviors may inform tailored prevention programs during the transition from late adolescence to adulthood.

Growth setbacks in new firms

New firms in emerging industries are subject to complex dynamic processes which defy the attempts at prediction embodied in business conjectures. Discontinuous growth is common, but the issue of interruptions in the early growth of new firms has not been adequately addressed in the mainstream literature. We examine the prevalence of interruptions to growth in a cohort study of the growth trajectories of firms founded in 1990, then look to cases studies of individual firms to investigate underlying causes. We find that substantial growth is rare and continuous growth unusual, and that growth interruptions are the result of both internal and external dynamics. The managers of growing firms face shortages of vital resources and significant problems of resource synchronisation and coordination, many of which can lead to what are, in effect, changes of phase state. Meanwhile, the volatile environment of an emerging industry presents particular problems to young firms which have not yet built up reserves to sustain them through short-term crises. However, problem solving by those that survive provides an important source of learning which can underpin their future development. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Body mass index trajectories and predictors among 3rd to 12th graders using growth curve mixture modeling the Child and Adolescent Trial for Cardiovascular Health (CATCH) study

This dissertation examined body mass index (BMI) growth trajectories and the effects of gender, ethnicity, dietary intake, and physical activity (PA) on BMI growth trajectories among 3rd to 12th graders (9-18 years of age). Growth curve model analysis was performed using data from The Child and Adolescent Trial for Cardiovascular Health (CATCH) study. The study population included 2909 students who were followed up from grades 3-12. The main outcome was BMI at grades 3, 4, 5, 8, and 12. ^ The results revealed that BMI growth differed across two distinct developmental periods of childhood and adolescence. Rate of BMI growth was faster in middle childhood (9-11 years old or 3rd - 5th grades) than in adolescence (11-18 years old or 5th - 12th grades). Students with higher BMI at 3rd grade (baseline) had faster rates of BMI growth. Three groups of students with distinct BMI growth trajectories were identified: high, average, and low. ^ Black and Hispanic children were more likely to be in the groups with higher baseline BMI and faster rates of BMI growth over time. The effects of gender or ethnicity on BMI growth differed across the three groups. The effects of ethnicity on BMI growth were weakened as the children aged. The effects of gender on BMI growth were attenuated in the groups with a large proportion of black and Hispanic children, i.e., “high” or “average” BMI trajectory group. After controlling for gender, ethnicity, and age at baseline, in the “high BMI trajectory”, rate of yearly BMI growth in middle childhood increased 0.102 for every 500 Kcals increase (p=0.049). No significant effects of percentage of energy from total fat and saturated fat on BMI growth were found. Baseline BMI increased 0.041 for every 30 minutes increased in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) in the “low BMI trajectory”, while Baseline BMI decreased 0.345 for every 30 minutes increased in vigorous PA (VPA) in the “high BMI trajectory”. ^ Childhood overweight and obesity interventions should start at the earliest possible ages, prior to 3rd grade and continue through grade school. Interventions should focus on all children, but specifically black and Hispanic children, who are more likely to be highest at-risk. Promoting VPA earlier in childhood is important for preventing overweight and obesity among children and adolescents. Interventions should target total energy intake, rather than only percentage of energy from total fat or saturated fat. ^

Estimates of growth and comparisons of growth rates determined from length- and age-based models for populations of purple wrasse (Notolabrus fucicola)

Growth of a temperate reefa-ssociated fish, the purple wrasse (Notolabrus fucicola), was examined from two sites on the east coast of Tasmania by using age- and length-based models. Models based on the von Bertalanffy growth function, in the standard and a reparameterized form, were constructed by using otolith-derived age estimates. Growth trajectories from tag-recaptures were used to construct length-based growth models derived from the GROTAG model, in turn a reparameterization of the Fabens model. Likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) determined the optimal parameterization of the GROTAG model, including estimators of individual growth variability, seasonal growth, measurement error, and outliers for each data set. Growth models and parameter estimates were compared by bootstrap confidence intervals, LRTs, and randomization tests and plots of bootstrap parameter estimates. The relative merit of these methods for comparing models and parameters was evaluated; LRTs combined with bootstrapping and randomization tests provided the most insight into the relationships between parameter estimates. Significant differences in growth of purple wrasse were found between sites in both length- and age-based models. A significant difference in the peak growth season was found between sites, and a large difference in growth rate between sexes was found at one site with the use of length-based models.

Compensatory growth and food consumption in gibel carp, Carassius auratus gibelio, and Chinese longsnout catfish, Leiocassis longirostris, experiencing cycles of feed deprivation and re-feeding

The compensatory responses of juvenile gibel carp and Chinese longsnout catfish to four cycles of 1 part of a study designed to determine feeding regimes that would maximise growth rates. Both species showed compensatory growth in the re-feeding periods. The compensation was not sufficient for the deprived fish to match the growth trajectories of controls fed to satiation daily. The compensatory growth response was more clearly defined in the later cycles. The deprived fish showed hyperphagia during the 2-week periods of re-feeding and the hyperphagic response was clearer in the later cycles. The hyperphagia tended to persist for both weeks of the re-feeding period. The gibel carp showed no difference in gross growth efficiency between deprived and control fish. In the catfish, the gross growth efficiency of the deprived fish was marginally higher than that of control fish, but the efficiency varied erratically from week to week. Over the experiment, the deprived fish achieved growth rates 75-80% of those shown by control fish, although fed at a frequency of 66%. There was no evidence of growth over-compensation with the deprivation-re-feeding protocol used in this study. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fundamental insights into ontogenetic growth from theory and fish

The fundamental features of growth may be universal, because growth trajectories of most animals are very similar, but a unified mechanistic theory of growth remains elusive. Still needed is a synthetic explanation for how and why growth rates vary as body size changes, both within individuals over their ontogeny and between populations and species over their evolution. Here we use Bertalanffy growth equations to characterize growth of ray-finned fishes in terms of two parameters, the growth rate coefficient, K, and final body mass, m∞. We derive two alternative empirically testable hypotheses and test them by analyzing data from FishBase. Across 576 species, which vary in size at maturity by almost nine orders of magnitude, K scaled as m_∞^(-0.23). This supports our first hypothesis that growth rate scales as m_∞^(-0.25) as predicted by metabolic scaling theory; it implies that species which grow to larger mature sizes grow faster as juveniles. Within fish species, however, K scaled as m_∞^(-0.35). This supports our second hypothesis which predicts that growth rate scales as m_∞^(-0.33) when all juveniles grow at the same rate. The unexpected disparity between across- and within-species scaling challenges existing theoretical interpretations. We suggest that the similar ontogenetic programs of closely related populations constrain growth to m_∞^(-0.33) scaling, but as species diverge over evolutionary time they evolve the near-optimal m_∞^(-0.25) scaling predicted by metabolic scaling theory. Our findings have important practical implications because fish supply essential protein in human diets, and sustainable yields from wild harvests and aquaculture depend on growth rates.

Structural change and growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: an overview of two decades, 1990-2011

This book explores the changes that have occurred as regards the production structure, trade and society in Central America and the Dominican Republic, and how these have influenced the countries’ growth trajectories. One of the conclusions it reaches is that the subregion overall has enjoyed faster economic growth than the rest of Latin America over the two decades examined, which has helped to raise people’s incomes and living standards. Yet this progress falls far short of what is needed, given the high levels of poverty and indigence and the glaring inequalities suffered by much of the population in Central America and the Dominican Republic. If the subregion is to attain higher levels of development with equality, one of the challenges it must tackle urgently is to adopt a strategy for changing its production structures and forging ahead with subregional integration, in order to correct productivity lags and income gaps. Another piece of unfinished business is to broaden the scope of action of fiscal and monetary policy, with a view to raising public investment, deploying countercyclical policies and developing greater resilience to external shocks.

Polynomials to model the growth of young bulls in performance tests

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Growth response to antiretroviral treatment in HIV-infected children: a cohort study from Lilongwe, Malawi

Objective  Malnutrition is common in HIV-infected children in Africa and an indication for antiretroviral treatment (ART). We examined anthropometric status and response to ART in children treated at a large public-sector clinic in Malawi. Methods  All children aged <15 years who started ART between January 2001 and December 2006 were included and followed until March 2008. Weight and height were measured at regular intervals from 1 year before to 2 years after the start of ART. Sex- and age-standardized z-scores were calculated for weight-for-age (WAZ) and height-for-age (HAZ). Predictors of growth were identified in multivariable mixed-effect models. Results  A total of 497 children started ART and were followed for 972 person-years. Median age (interquartile range; IQR) was 8 years (4–11 years). Most children were underweight (52% of children), stunted (69%), in advanced clinical stages (94% in WHO stages 3 or 4) and had severe immunodeficiency (77%). After starting ART, median (IQR) WAZ and HAZ increased from −2.1 (−2.7 to −1.3) and −2.6 (−3.6 to −1.8) to −1.4 (−2.1 to −0.8) and −1.8 (−2.4 to −1.1) at 24 months, respectively (P < 0.001). In multivariable models, baseline WAZ and HAZ scores were the most important determinants of growth trajectories on ART. Conclusions  Despite a sustained growth response to ART among children remaining on therapy, normal values were not reached. Interventions leading to earlier HIV diagnosis and initiation of treatment could improve growth response.

The Career Satisfaction Scale: Longitudinal measurement invariance and latent growth analysis

The present research analyses the adequacy of the widely used Career Satisfaction Scale (CSS; Greenhaus, Parasuraman, & Wormley, 1990) for measuring change over time. We used data of a sample of 1,273 professionals over a 5-year time period. First, we tested longitudinal measurement invariance of the CSS. Second, we analysed changes in career satisfaction by means of multiple indicator latent growth modelling (MLGM). Results revealed that the CSS can be reliably used in mean change analyses. Altogether, career satisfaction was relatively stable over time; however, we found significant variance in intra-individual growth trajectories and a negative correlation between the initial level of and changes in career satisfaction. Professionals who were initially highly satisfied became less satisfied over time. Theoretical and practical implications with respect to the construct of career satisfaction and its development over time (i.e., alpha, beta, and gamma change) are discussed.

Measuring Middle School Achievement Growth With Student Growth Percentile Methodology

This study examined reading and mathematics achievement growth for middle school students over three years using statewide test scores using student growth percentile methodology (Betebenner, 2008). This newly-emerging growth methodology provides a basis for examining growth normatively (“what is”) in order to provide a foundation for policies about adequate growth (“what should be”) and excellent growth (“what could be”). Growth is compared among student subgroups and different middle schools. A particular focus of the study is identifying typical growth trajectories of low-achieving 6th graders through the middle school years.

Value Chain Dynamics and Growth of Local Firms:The Case of Motorcycle Industry in Vietnam

Vietnam’s burgeoning market for motorcycles has attracted global industry eaders,players from developing countries, and local firms. This has led to a dynamic evolution of value chains. This paper presents an explanation of the varieties of the growth patterns xperienced by the local suppliers, focusing on the roles of customer and local supplier strategies. Case studies showed that while the role of customers may be important, strategies of suppliers to improve the ompetitive edge in the production of otorcycle components and to diversify into other products account for important ariations of growth trajectories among local suppliers. Findings presented in this paper suggest the need to direct more attention to strategy that local firms use to boost their competitive edge in business.