Adaptive fuzzy knowledge-based systems for control metabots' mobility on virtual environments

The confluence of three-dimensional (3D) virtual worlds with social networks imposes on software agents, in addition to conversational functions, the same behaviours as those common to human-driven avatars. In this paper, we explore the possibilities of the use of metabots (metaverse robots) with motion capabilities in complex virtual 3D worlds and we put forward a learning model based on the techniques used in evolutionary computation for optimizing the fuzzy controllers which will subsequently be used by metabots for moving around a virtual environment.

Development of a decision support system for the integrated control of membrane bioreactors

The work presented in this PhD thesis includes various partial studies aimed at developing a decision support system for membrane bioreactor integrated control. The decision support systems (DSS) have as a main goal to facilitate the operation of complex processes due to the multiple variables that are processed. For this reason, the research used has focused on aspects related to nutrient removal, and on the development of indicators or sensors capable of facilitating, automating and controlling the filtration process in an integrated way with the biological processes that taking place. Work has also been done on the design, development, implementation and validation of tools based on the knowledge made available by the automatic control and the supervision of the MBRs

Decision making and decision support in service systems

This thesis is a literature study that develops a conceptual model of decision making and decision support in service systems. The study is related to the Ä-Logi, Intelligent Service Logic for Welfare Sector Services research project, and the objective of the study is to develop the necessary theoretical framework to enable further research based on the research project results and material. The study first examines the concepts of service and service systems, focusing on understanding the characteristics of service systems and their implications for decision making and decision support to provide the basis for the development of the conceptual model. Based on the identified service system characteristics, an integrated model of service systems is proposed that views service systems through a number of interrelated perspectives that each offer different, but complementary, implications on the nature of decision making and the requirements for decision support in service systems. Based on the model, it is proposed that different types of decision making contexts can be identified in service systems that may be dominated by different types of decision making processes and where different types of decision support may be required, depending on the characteristics of the decision making context and its decision making processes. The proposed conceptual model of decision making and decision support in service systems examines the characteristics of decision making contexts and processes in service systems, and their typical requirements for decision support. First, a characterization of different types of decision making contexts in service systems is proposed based on the Cynefin framework and the identified service system characteristics. Second, the nature of decision making processes in service systems is proposed to be dual, with both rational and naturalistic decision making processes existing in service systems, and having an important and complementary role in decision making in service systems. Finally, a characterization of typical requirements for decision support in service systems is proposed that examines the decision support requirements associated with different types of decision making processes in characteristically different types of decision making contexts. It is proposed that decision support for the decision making processes that are based on rational decision making can be based on organizational decision support models, while decision support for the decision making processes that are based on naturalistic decision making should be based on supporting the decision makers’ situation awareness and facilitating the development of their tacit knowledge of the system and its tasks. Based on the proposed conceptual model a further research process is proposed. The study additionally provides a number of new perspectives on the characteristics of service systems, and the nature of decision making and requirements for decision support in service systems that can potentially provide a basis for further discussion and research, and support the practice alike.

User interface design support for the development of knowledge-based systems

The present scarcity of operational knowledge-based systems (KBS) has been attributed, in part, to an inadequate consideration shown to user interface design during development. From a human factors perspective the problem has stemmed from an overall lack of user-centred design principles. Consequently the integration of human factors principles and techniques is seen as a necessary and important precursor to ensuring the implementation of KBS which are useful to, and usable by, the end-users for whom they are intended. Focussing upon KBS work taking place within commercial and industrial environments, this research set out to assess both the extent to which human factors support was presently being utilised within development, and the future path for human factors integration. The assessment consisted of interviews conducted with a number of commercial and industrial organisations involved in KBS development; and a set of three detailed case studies of individual KBS projects. Two of the studies were carried out within a collaborative Alvey project, involving the Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme (IHD) at the University of Aston in Birmingham, BIS Applied Systems Ltd (BIS), and the British Steel Corporation. This project, which had provided the initial basis and funding for the research, was concerned with the application of KBS to the design of commercial data processing (DP) systems. The third study stemmed from involvement on a KBS project being carried out by the Technology Division of the Trustees Saving Bank Group plc. The preliminary research highlighted poor human factors integration. In particular, there was a lack of early consideration of end-user requirements definition and user-centred evaluation. Instead concentration was given to the construction of the knowledge base and prototype evaluation with the expert(s). In response to this identified problem, a set of methods was developed that was aimed at encouraging developers to consider user interface requirements early on in a project. These methods were then applied in the two further projects, and their uptake within the overall development process was monitored. Experience from the two studies demonstrated that early consideration of user interface requirements was both feasible, and instructive for guiding future development work. In particular, it was shown a user interface prototype could be used as a basis for capturing requirements at the functional (task) level, and at the interface dialogue level. Extrapolating from this experience, a KBS life-cycle model is proposed which incorporates user interface design (and within that, user evaluation) as a largely parallel, rather than subsequent, activity to knowledge base construction. Further to this, there is a discussion of several key elements which can be seen as inhibiting the integration of human factors within KBS development. These elements stem from characteristics of present KBS development practice; from constraints within the commercial and industrial development environments; and from the state of existing human factors support.

Advanced decision-support methods for the design, control, and optimization of perishable products life cycle

In the last decades, global food supply chains had to deal with the increasing awareness of the stakeholders and consumers about safety, quality, and sustainability. In order to address these new challenges for food supply chain systems, an integrated approach to design, control, and optimize product life cycle is required. Therefore, it is essential to introduce new models, methods, and decision-support platforms tailored to perishable products. This thesis aims to provide novel practice-ready decision-support models and methods to optimize the logistics of food items with an integrated and interdisciplinary approach. It proposes a comprehensive review of the main peculiarities of perishable products and the environmental stresses accelerating their quality decay. Then, it focuses on top-down strategies to optimize the supply chain system from the strategical to the operational decision level. Based on the criticality of the environmental conditions, the dissertation evaluates the main long-term logistics investment strategies to preserve products quality. Several models and methods are proposed to optimize the logistics decisions to enhance the sustainability of the supply chain system while guaranteeing adequate food preservation. The models and methods proposed in this dissertation promote a climate-driven approach integrating climate conditions and their consequences on the quality decay of products in innovative models supporting the logistics decisions. Given the uncertain nature of the environmental stresses affecting the product life cycle, an original stochastic model and solving method are proposed to support practitioners in controlling and optimizing the supply chain systems when facing uncertain scenarios. The application of the proposed decision-support methods to real case studies proved their effectiveness in increasing the sustainability of the perishable product life cycle. The dissertation also presents an industry application of a global food supply chain system, further demonstrating how the proposed models and tools can be integrated to provide significant savings and sustainability improvements.

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

An economic decision support tool for simulating paratuberculosis control strategies in a UK suckler beef herd

A dynamic, deterministic, economic simulation model was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of controlling Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in a suckler beef herd. The model is intended as a demonstration tool for veterinarians to use with farmers. The model design process involved user consultation and participation and the model is freely accessible on a dedicated website. The 'user-friendly' model interface allows the input of key assumptions and farm specific parameters enabling model simulations to be tailored to individual farm circumstances. The model simulates the effect of Johne's disease and various measures for its control in terms of herd prevalence and the shedding states of animals within the herd, the financial costs of the disease and of any control measures and the likely benefits of control of Johne's disease for the beef suckler herd over a 10-year period. The model thus helps to make more transparent the 'hidden costs' of Johne's in a herd and the likely benefits to be gained from controlling the disease. The control strategies considered within the model are 'no control', 'testing and culling of diagnosed animals', 'improving management measures' or a dual strategy of 'testing and culling in association with improving management measures'. An example 'run' of the model shows that the strategy 'improving management measures', which reduces infection routes during the early stages, results in a marked fall in herd prevalence and total costs. Testing and culling does little to reduce prevalence and does not reduce total costs over the 10-year period.

Knowledge-based systems and engineering software

The work described was carried out as part of a collaborative Alvey software engineering project (project number SE057). The project collaborators were the Inter-Disciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme of the University of Aston in Birmingham, BIS Applied Systems Ltd. (BIS) and the British Steel Corporation. The aim of the project was to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based systems (KBSs) to the design of commercial data processing (DP) systems. The work was primarily concerned with BIS's Structured Systems Design (SSD) methodology for DP systems development and how users of this methodology could be supported using KBS tools. The problems encountered by users of SSD are discussed and potential forms of computer-based support for inexpert designers are identified. The architecture for a support environment for SSD is proposed based on the integration of KBS and non-KBS tools for individual design tasks within SSD - The Intellipse system. The Intellipse system has two modes of operation - Advisor and Designer. The design, implementation and user-evaluation of Advisor are discussed. The results of a Designer feasibility study, the aim of which was to analyse major design tasks in SSD to assess their suitability for KBS support, are reported. The potential role of KBS tools in the domain of database design is discussed. The project involved extensive knowledge engineering sessions with expert DP systems designers. Some practical lessons in relation to KBS development are derived from this experience. The nature of the expertise possessed by expert designers is discussed. The need for operational KBSs to be built to the same standards as other commercial and industrial software is identified. A comparison between current KBS and conventional DP systems development is made. On the basis of this analysis, a structured development method for KBSs in proposed - the POLITE model. Some initial results of applying this method to KBS development are discussed. Several areas for further research and development are identified.

Knowledge-based systems /

"UILU-ENG 80 1704."

Decision-Making Tool for Knowledge-Based Projects in Offshore Production Systems

The development of an offshore field demands knowledge of many experts to choose the different components of an offshore production system. All the specialized parts of this knowledge are intrinsically related. The aim of this paper is to use Fuzzy Sets and knowledge-based systems to describe and formalize the phases of development of an offshore production system project, in order to share and to manage the required knowledge for carrying out a project, while at the same time proposing alternatives for the oil field configuration.

Prototype of a web-based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and technologies, particularly the Boundless (formerly OpenGeo) framework and its client side software development kit (SDK). The main purpose of the platform is to assist the experts and stakeholders in the decision-making process for evaluation and selection of different risk management strategies through an interactive participation approach, integrating web-GIS interface with decision support tool based on a compromise programming approach. The access rights and functionality of the platform are varied depending on the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in managing the risk. The application of the prototype platform is demonstrated based on an example case study site: Malborghetto Valbruna municipality of North-Eastern Italy where flash floods and landslides are frequent with major events having occurred in 2003. The preliminary feedback collected from the stakeholders in the region is discussed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on the proposed prototype platform.

A web based decision support system for status assessment in advanced parkinson

The purpose of this work is to develop a web based decision support system, based onfuzzy logic, to assess the motor state of Parkinson patients on their performance in onscreenmotor tests in a test battery on a hand computer. A set of well defined rules, basedon an expert’s knowledge, were made to diagnose the current state of the patient. At theend of a period, an overall score is calculated which represents the overall state of thepatient during the period. Acceptability of the rules is based on the absolute differencebetween patient’s own assessment of his condition and the diagnosed state. Anyinconsistency can be tracked by highlighted as an alert in the system. Graphicalpresentation of data aims at enhanced analysis of patient’s state and performancemonitoring by the clinic staff. In general, the system is beneficial for the clinic staff,patients, project managers and researchers.

Knowledge based crime scenario modelling

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a novel knowledge driven methodology for crime scenario construction and it presents a decision support system based on it. The approach works by storing the component events of the scenarios instead of entire scenarios and by providing an algorithm that can instantiate and compose these component events into useful scenarios. The scenario composition approach is highly adaptable to unanticipated cases because it allows component events to match the case under investigation in many different ways. Given a description of the available evidence, it generates a network of plausible scenarios that can then be analysed to devise effective evidence collection strategies. The applicability of the ideas presented here are demonstrated by means of a realistic example and prototype decision support software.

Development of an open case-based decision-support system for diagnosis in oral pathology

Making diagnoses in oral pathology are often difficult and confusing in dental practice, especially for the lessexperienced dental student. One of the most promising areas in bioinformatics is computer-aided diagnosis, where a computer system is capable of imitating human reasoning ability and provides diagnoses with an accuracy approaching that of expert professionals. This type of system could be an alternative tool for assisting dental students to overcome the difficulties of the oral pathology learning process. This could allow students to define variables and information, important to improving the decision-making performance. However, no current open data management system has been integrated with an artificial intelligence system in a user-friendly environment. Such a system could also be used as an education tool to help students perform diagnoses. The aim of the present study was to develop and test an open case-based decisionsupport system.Methods: An open decision-support system based on Bayes' theorem connected to a relational database was developed using the C++ programming language. The software was tested in the computerisation of a surgical pathology service and in simulating the diagnosis of 43 known cases of oral bone disease. The simulation was performed after the system was initially filled with data from 401 cases of oral bone disease.Results: the system allowed the authors to construct and to manage a pathology database, and to simulate diagnoses using the variables from the database.Conclusion: Combining a relational database and an open decision-support system in the same user-friendly environment proved effective in simulating diagnoses based on information from an updated database.