On Consumer Decision Strategies: New Approaches for Studying and Aiding Preferential Choices

This dissertation focuses on the strategies consumers use when making purchase decisions. It is organized in two main parts, one centering on descriptive and the other on applied decision making research. In the first part, a new process tracing tool called InterActive Process Tracing (IAPT) is pre- sented, which I developed to investigate the nature of consumers' decision strategies. This tool is a combination of several process tracing techniques, namely Active Information Search, Mouselab, and retrospective verbal protocol. To validate IAPT, two experiments on mobile phone purchase de- cisions were conducted where participants first repeatedly chose a mobile phone and then were asked to formalize their decision strategy so that it could be used to make choices for them. The choices made by the identified strategies correctly predicted the observed choices in 73% (Experiment 1) and 67% (Experiment 2) of the cases. Moreover, in Experiment 2, Mouselab and eye tracking were directly compared with respect to their impact on information search and strategy description. Only minor differences were found between these two methods. I conclude that IAPT is a useful research tool to identify choice strategies, and that using eye tracking technology did not increase its validity beyond that gained with Mouselab. In the second part, a prototype of a decision aid is introduced that was developed building in particular on the knowledge about consumers' decision strategies gained in Part I. This decision aid, which is called the InterActive Choice Aid (IACA), systematically assists consumers in their purchase decisions. To evaluate the prototype regarding its perceived utility, an experiment was conducted where IACA was compared to two other prototypes that were based on real-world consumer decision aids. All three prototypes differed in the number and type of tools they provided to facilitate the process of choosing, ranging from low (Amazon) to medium (Sunrise/dpreview) to high functionality (IACA). Overall, participants slightly preferred the prototype of medium functionality and this prototype was also rated best on the dimensions of understandability and ease of use. IACA was rated best regarding the two dimensions of ease of elimination and ease of comparison of alternatives. Moreover, participants choices were more in line with the normatively oriented weighted additive strategy when they used IACA than when they used the medium functionality prototype. The low functionality prototype was the least preferred overall. It is concluded that consumers can and will benefit from highly functional decision aids like IACA, but only when these systems are easy to understand and to use.

Constraining ACT-R models of decision strategies: An experimental paradigm

It has been repeatedly debated which strategies people rely on in inference. These debates have been difficult to resolve, partially because hypotheses about the decision processes assumed by these strategies have typically been formulated qualitatively, making it hard to test precise quantitative predictions about response times and other behavioral data. One way to increase the precision of strategies is to implement them in cognitive architectures such as ACT-R. Often, however, a given strategy can be implemented in several ways, with each implementation yielding different behavioral predictions. We present and report a study with an experimental paradigm that can help to identify the correct implementations of classic compensatory and non-compensatory strategies such as the take-the-best and tallying heuristics, and the weighted-linear model.

Cost evaluation and comparison of three decision strategies to revascularize : results of the suspected CAD protocol of the european CMR registry

Background: Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is accepted as a method to assess suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Nonetheless, invasive coronary angiography (CXA) combined or not with fractional flow reserve (FFR) remains the main diagnostic test to evaluate CAD. Little data exist on the economic impact of the use of these procedures in a population with a low to intermediate pre-test probability. Objective: To compare the costs of 3 decision strategies to revascularize a patient with suspected CAD: 1) strategy guided by CMR 2) hypothetical strategy guided by CXA-FFR, 3) hypothetical strategy guided by CXA alone.

Cost evaluation and comparison of three decision strategies for cardiac revascularization : results of the suspected CAD protocol of the European CMR registry

Background: The public health burden of coronary artery disease (CAD) is important. Perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is generally accepted to detect and monitor CAD. Few studies have so far addressed its costs and costeffectiveness. Objectives: To compare in a large CMR registry the costs of a CMR-guided strategy vs two hypothetical invasive strategies for the diagnosis and the treatment of patients with suspected CAD. Methods: In 3'647 patients with suspected CAD included prospectively in the EuroCMR Registry (59 centers; 18 countries) costs were calculated for diagnostic examinations, revascularizations as well as for complication management over a 1-year follow-up. Patients with ischemia-positive CMR underwent an invasive X-ray coronary angiography (CXA) and revascularization at the discretion of the treating physician (=CMR+CXA strategy). Ischemia was found in 20.9% of patients and 17.4% of them were revascularized. In ischemia-negative patients by CMR, cardiac death and non-fatal myocardial infarctions occurred in 0.38%/y. In a hypothetical invasive arm the costs were calculated for an initial CXA followed by FFR testing in vessels with ≥50% diameter stenoses (=CXA+FFR strategy). To model this hypothetical arm, the same proportion of ischemic patients and outcome was assumed as for the CMR+CXA strategy. The coronary stenosis - FFR relationship reported in the literature was used to derive the proportion of patients with ≥50% diameter stenoses (Psten) in the study cohort. The costs of a CXA-only strategy were also calculated. Calculations were performed from a third payer perspective for the German, UK, Swiss, and US healthcare systems.

Cost-minimization analysis of three decision strategies for cardiac revascularization : results of the "suspected CAD"cohort of the european cardiovascular magnetic resonance registry.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to be one of the top public health burden. Perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is generally accepted to detect CAD, while data on its cost effectiveness are scarce. Therefore, the goal of the study was to compare the costs of a CMR-guided strategy vs two invasive strategies in a large CMR registry. METHODS: In 3'647 patients with suspected CAD of the EuroCMR-registry (59 centers/18 countries) costs were calculated for diagnostic examinations (CMR, X-ray coronary angiography (CXA) with/without FFR), revascularizations, and complications during a 1-year follow-up. Patients with ischemia-positive CMR underwent an invasive CXA and revascularization at the discretion of the treating physician (=CMR + CXA-strategy). In the hypothetical invasive arm, costs were calculated for an initial CXA and a FFR in vessels with ≥50 % stenoses (=CXA + FFR-strategy) and the same proportion of revascularizations and complications were applied as in the CMR + CXA-strategy. In the CXA-only strategy, costs included those for CXA and for revascularizations of all ≥50 % stenoses. To calculate the proportion of patients with ≥50 % stenoses, the stenosis-FFR relationship from the literature was used. Costs of the three strategies were determined based on a third payer perspective in 4 healthcare systems. RESULTS: Revascularizations were performed in 6.2 %, 4.5 %, and 12.9 % of all patients, patients with atypical chest pain (n = 1'786), and typical angina (n = 582), respectively; whereas complications (=all-cause death and non-fatal infarction) occurred in 1.3 %, 1.1 %, and 1.5 %, respectively. The CMR + CXA-strategy reduced costs by 14 %, 34 %, 27 %, and 24 % in the German, UK, Swiss, and US context, respectively, when compared to the CXA + FFR-strategy; and by 59 %, 52 %, 61 % and 71 %, respectively, versus the CXA-only strategy. In patients with typical angina, cost savings by CMR + CXA vs CXA + FFR were minimal in the German (2.3 %), intermediate in the US and Swiss (11.6 % and 12.8 %, respectively), and remained substantial in the UK (18.9 %) systems. Sensitivity analyses proved the robustness of results. CONCLUSIONS: A CMR + CXA-strategy for patients with suspected CAD provides substantial cost reduction compared to a hypothetical CXA + FFR-strategy in patients with low to intermediate disease prevalence. However, in the subgroup of patients with typical angina, cost savings were only minimal to moderate.

Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

Gondolkodásegyszerűsítő stratégiák hatékonysága (Simplifying decision strategies and their effectiveness)

A szerző a megelégedésre törekvő döntéshozatalt és eszközeinek, az egyszerűsítő döntési stratégiáknak a hatékonysági kérdéseit tárgyalja. Az egyszerűsítő stratégiáknak és az alkalmazásukat támogató attitűdnek nemcsak az időt, hanem az információkeresés és - feldolgozás egyéb költségvonzatait is tekintetbe véve számos előnyük van. A szerző a szakirodalom rendszerezésével rávilágít az egyéni szintű leegyszerűsítések természetére és pozitív hatásaikra. A bevezetést és a meghatározásokat követően az egyszerűsítő stratégiák hatékonysági kérdéseit tárgyalja a környezeti tényezők függvényében, majd a döntéshozó személyiségét és pszichológiai jóllétét érintő összefüggésekről ír. A tanulmány végén folyamatban lévő empirikus kutatásának kérdéseire tér rá, mely kutatás az üzleti gyakorlat empirikus vizsgálatával kíván hozzájárulni az eddig főként laboratóriumi kísérletek eredményeire épülő tudáshoz. ___________ Placing itself in the domain of bounded rationality theory, the article deals with the advantages of satisficing and of using decision heuristics. As to the approach to decision heuristics, the author stands on the positive side, not focusing on biases, but showing interest in the effectiveness potential in heuristics. As a review of recent literature, the article deals with different advantages of satisficing and of using simplifying strategies, be it cognitive advantages, the effectiveness, or advantages concerning the psychological well-being of the decision maker. Actual research questions of the „adaptive toolbox” approach, and the problem of determination by personality traits are presented based on the review of recent research results. Further research directions are indicated after the review. By presenting his research questions the author shows how he is willing to enrich the results of this research program by his own empirical work.

Assessing Decision Making Strategies In Construction Management By Using A Schedule-Based Simulation Framework

During the project, managers encounter numerous contingencies and are faced with the challenging task of making decisions that will effectively keep the project on track. This task is very challenging because construction projects are non-prototypical and the processes are irreversible. Therefore, it is critical to apply a methodological approach to develop a few alternative management decision strategies during the planning phase, which can be deployed to manage alternative scenarios resulting from expected and unexpected disruptions in the as-planned schedule. Such a methodology should have the following features but are missing in the existing research: (1) looking at the effects of local decisions on the global project outcomes, (2) studying how a schedule responds to decisions and disruptive events because the risk in a schedule is a function of the decisions made, (3) establishing a method to assess and improve the management decision strategies, and (4) developing project specific decision strategies because each construction project is unique and the lessons from a particular project cannot be easily applied to projects that have different contexts. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve sequences of decisions for the execution stage. The contribution of this research is the introduction of applying decision strategies to manage a project and the establishment of iterative methodology to continuously assess and improve decision strategies and schedules. The project managers or schedulers can implement the methodology to develop and identify schedules accompanied by suitable decision strategies to manage a project at the planning stage. The developed methodology also lays the foundation for an algorithm towards continuously automatically generating satisfactory schedule and strategies through the construction life of a project. Different from studying isolated daily decisions, the proposed framework introduces the notion of {em decision strategies} to manage construction process. A decision strategy is a sequence of interdependent decisions determined by resource allocation policies such as labor, material, equipment, and space policies. The schedule-based simulation framework consists of two parts, experiment design and result assessment. The core of the experiment design is the establishment of an iterative method to test and improve decision strategies and schedules, which is based on the introduction of decision strategies and the development of a schedule-based simulation testbed. The simulation testbed used is Interactive Construction Decision Making Aid (ICDMA). ICDMA has an emulator to duplicate the construction process that has been previously developed and a random event generator that allows the decision-maker to respond to disruptions in the emulation. It is used to study how the schedule responds to these disruptions and the corresponding decisions made over the duration of the project while accounting for cascading impacts and dependencies between activities. The dissertation is organized into two parts. The first part presents the existing research, identifies the departure points of this work, and develops a schedule-based simulation framework to design, assess, and improve decision strategies. In the second part, the proposed schedule-based simulation framework is applied to investigate specific research problems.

Decision making in a human population living sustainably

The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision-making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long-term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision-making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes.

The InterActive Choice Aid: A new approach to supporting online consumer decision making

Interactive Choice Aid (ICA) is a decision aid, introduced in this paper, that systematically assists consumers with online purchase decisions. ICA integrates aspects from prescriptive decision theory, insights from descriptive decision research, and practical considerations; thereby combining pre-existing best practices with novel features. Instead of imposing an objectively ideal but unnatural decision procedure on the user, ICA assists the natural process of human decision-making by providing explicit support for the execution of the user's decision strategies. The application contains an innovative feature for in-depth comparisons of alternatives through which users' importance ratings are elicited interactively and in a playful way. The usability and general acceptance of the choice aid was studied; results show that ICA is a promising contribution and provides insights that may further improve its usability.

Using a Prediction and Option Generation Paradigm to Understand Decision Making

In many complex and dynamic domains, the ability to generate and then select the appropriate course of action is based on the decision maker's "reading" of the situation--in other words, their ability to assess the situation and predict how it will evolve over the next few seconds. Current theories regarding option generation during the situation assessment and response phases of decision making offer contrasting views on the cognitive mechanisms that support superior performance. The Recognition-Primed Decision-making model (RPD; Klein, 1989) and Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003) suggest that superior decisions are made by generating few options, and then selecting the first option as the final one. Long-Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995), on the other hand, posits that skilled decision makers construct rich, detailed situation models, and that as a result, skilled performers should have the ability to generate more of the available task-relevant options. The main goal of this dissertation was to use these theories about option generation as a way to further the understanding of how police officers anticipate a perpetrator's actions, and make decisions about how to respond, during dynamic law enforcement situations. An additional goal was to gather information that can be used, in the future, to design training based on the anticipation skills, decision strategies, and processes of experienced officers. Two studies were conducted to achieve these goals. Study 1 identified video-based law enforcement scenarios that could be used to discriminate between experienced and less-experienced police officers, in terms of their ability to anticipate the outcome. The discriminating scenarios were used as the stimuli in Study 2; 23 experienced and 26 less-experienced police officers observed temporally-occluded versions of the scenarios, and then completed assessment and response option-generation tasks. The results provided mixed support for the nature of option generation in these situations. Consistent with RPD and TTF, participants typically selected the first-generated option as their final one, and did so during both the assessment and response phases of decision making. Consistent with LTWM theory, participants--regardless of experience level--generated more task-relevant assessment options than task-irrelevant options. However, an expected interaction between experience level and option-relevance was not observed. Collectively, the two studies provide a deeper understanding of how police officers make decisions in dynamic situations. The methods developed and employed in the studies can be used to investigate anticipation and decision making in other critical domains (e.g., nursing, military). The results are discussed in relation to how they can inform future studies of option-generation performance, and how they could be applied to develop training for law enforcement officers.