Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Linked Data based Health Information Representation, Visualization and Retrieval System on the Semantic Web

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Data-based approach for developing a physical activity frequency questionnaire.

Measurement of total energy expenditure may be crucial to an understanding of the relation between physical activity and disease and in order to frame public health intervention. To devise a self-administered physical activity frequency questionnaire (PAFQ), the following data-based approach was used. A 24-hour recall was administered to a random sample of 919 adult residents of Geneva, Switzerland. The data obtained were used to establish the list of activities (and their median duration) that contributed to 95% of the energy expended, separately for men and women. Activities that were trivial for the whole sample but that contributed to > or = 10% of an individual's energy expenditure were also selected. The final PAFQ lists 70 activities or group of activities with their typical duration. About 20 minutes are required for respondents to indicate the number of days and the number of hours per day that they performed each activity. The PAFQ method was validated against a heart rate monitor, a more objective method. The total energy estimated by the PAFQ in 41 volunteers correlated well (r = 0.76) with estimates using a heart rate monitor. The authors conclude that the design of their self-administered physical activity frequency questionnaire based on data from 24-hour recall appeared to accurately estimate energy expenditure.

Inequalities for a new data-based method for selecting nonparametric density estimates

We continue the development of a method for the selection of a bandwidth or a number of design parameters in density estimation. We provideexplicit non-asymptotic density-free inequalities that relate the $L_1$ error of the selected estimate with that of the best possible estimate,and study in particular the connection between the richness of the classof density estimates and the performance bound. For example, our methodallows one to pick the bandwidth and kernel order in the kernel estimatesimultaneously and still assure that for {\it all densities}, the $L_1$error of the corresponding kernel estimate is not larger than aboutthree times the error of the estimate with the optimal smoothing factor and kernel plus a constant times $\sqrt{\log n/n}$, where $n$ is the sample size, and the constant only depends on the complexity of the family of kernels used in the estimate. Further applications include multivariate kernel estimates, transformed kernel estimates, and variablekernel estimates.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

CleanEx: a database of heterogeneous gene expression data based on a consistent gene nomenclature.

The main goal of CleanEx is to provide access to public gene expression data via unique gene names. A second objective is to represent heterogeneous expression data produced by different technologies in a way that facilitates joint analysis and cross-data set comparisons. A consistent and up-to-date gene nomenclature is achieved by associating each single experiment with a permanent target identifier consisting of a physical description of the targeted RNA population or the hybridization reagent used. These targets are then mapped at regular intervals to the growing and evolving catalogues of human genes and genes from model organisms. The completely automatic mapping procedure relies partly on external genome information resources such as UniGene and RefSeq. The central part of CleanEx is a weekly built gene index containing cross-references to all public expression data already incorporated into the system. In addition, the expression target database of CleanEx provides gene mapping and quality control information for various types of experimental resource, such as cDNA clones or Affymetrix probe sets. The web-based query interfaces offer access to individual entries via text string searches or quantitative expression criteria. CleanEx is accessible at: http://www.cleanex.isb-sib.ch/.

CleanEx: a database of heterogeneous gene expression data based on a consistent gene nomenclature and linked to an improved annotation system

Résumé: L'automatisation du séquençage et de l'annotation des génomes, ainsi que l'application à large échelle de méthodes de mesure de l'expression génique, génèrent une quantité phénoménale de données pour des organismes modèles tels que l'homme ou la souris. Dans ce déluge de données, il devient très difficile d'obtenir des informations spécifiques à un organisme ou à un gène, et une telle recherche aboutit fréquemment à des réponses fragmentées, voir incomplètes. La création d'une base de données capable de gérer et d'intégrer aussi bien les données génomiques que les données transcriptomiques peut grandement améliorer la vitesse de recherche ainsi que la qualité des résultats obtenus, en permettant une comparaison directe de mesures d'expression des gènes provenant d'expériences réalisées grâce à des techniques différentes. L'objectif principal de ce projet, appelé CleanEx, est de fournir un accès direct aux données d'expression publiques par le biais de noms de gènes officiels, et de représenter des données d'expression produites selon des protocoles différents de manière à faciliter une analyse générale et une comparaison entre plusieurs jeux de données. Une mise à jour cohérente et régulière de la nomenclature des gènes est assurée en associant chaque expérience d'expression de gène à un identificateur permanent de la séquence-cible, donnant une description physique de la population d'ARN visée par l'expérience. Ces identificateurs sont ensuite associés à intervalles réguliers aux catalogues, en constante évolution, des gènes d'organismes modèles. Cette procédure automatique de traçage se fonde en partie sur des ressources externes d'information génomique, telles que UniGene et RefSeq. La partie centrale de CleanEx consiste en un index de gènes établi de manière hebdomadaire et qui contient les liens à toutes les données publiques d'expression déjà incorporées au système. En outre, la base de données des séquences-cible fournit un lien sur le gène correspondant ainsi qu'un contrôle de qualité de ce lien pour différents types de ressources expérimentales, telles que des clones ou des sondes Affymetrix. Le système de recherche en ligne de CleanEx offre un accès aux entrées individuelles ainsi qu'à des outils d'analyse croisée de jeux de donnnées. Ces outils se sont avérés très efficaces dans le cadre de la comparaison de l'expression de gènes, ainsi que, dans une certaine mesure, dans la détection d'une variation de cette expression liée au phénomène d'épissage alternatif. Les fichiers et les outils de CleanEx sont accessibles en ligne (http://www.cleanex.isb-sib.ch/). Abstract: The automatic genome sequencing and annotation, as well as the large-scale gene expression measurements methods, generate a massive amount of data for model organisms. Searching for genespecific or organism-specific information througout all the different databases has become a very difficult task, and often results in fragmented and unrelated answers. The generation of a database which will federate and integrate genomic and transcriptomic data together will greatly improve the search speed as well as the quality of the results by allowing a direct comparison of expression results obtained by different techniques. The main goal of this project, called the CleanEx database, is thus to provide access to public gene expression data via unique gene names and to represent heterogeneous expression data produced by different technologies in a way that facilitates joint analysis and crossdataset comparisons. A consistent and uptodate gene nomenclature is achieved by associating each single gene expression experiment with a permanent target identifier consisting of a physical description of the targeted RNA population or the hybridization reagent used. These targets are then mapped at regular intervals to the growing and evolving catalogues of genes from model organisms, such as human and mouse. The completely automatic mapping procedure relies partly on external genome information resources such as UniGene and RefSeq. The central part of CleanEx is a weekly built gene index containing crossreferences to all public expression data already incorporated into the system. In addition, the expression target database of CleanEx provides gene mapping and quality control information for various types of experimental resources, such as cDNA clones or Affymetrix probe sets. The Affymetrix mapping files are accessible as text files, for further use in external applications, and as individual entries, via the webbased interfaces . The CleanEx webbased query interfaces offer access to individual entries via text string searches or quantitative expression criteria, as well as crossdataset analysis tools, and crosschip gene comparison. These tools have proven to be very efficient in expression data comparison and even, to a certain extent, in detection of differentially expressed splice variants. The CleanEx flat files and tools are available online at: http://www.cleanex.isbsib. ch/.

Statistical methods for ordered categorical data based on a constrained odds model

The proportional odds model provides a powerful tool for analysing ordered categorical data and setting sample size, although for many clinical trials its validity is questionable. The purpose of this paper is to present a new class of constrained odds models which includes the proportional odds model. The efficient score and Fisher's information are derived from the profile likelihood for the constrained odds model. These results are new even for the special case of proportional odds where the resulting statistics define the Mann-Whitney test. A strategy is described involving selecting one of these models in advance, requiring assumptions as strong as those underlying proportional odds, but allowing a choice of such models. The accuracy of the new procedure and its power are evaluated.

Data based constructive identification - overcoming the curse of dimensionality

The modelling of a nonlinear stochastic dynamical processes from data involves solving the problems of data gathering, preprocessing, model architecture selection, learning or adaptation, parametric evaluation and model validation. For a given model architecture such as associative memory networks, a common problem in non-linear modelling is the problem of "the curse of dimensionality". A series of complementary data based constructive identification schemes, mainly based on but not limited to an operating point dependent fuzzy models, are introduced in this paper with the aim to overcome the curse of dimensionality. These include (i) a mixture of experts algorithm based on a forward constrained regression algorithm; (ii) an inherent parsimonious delaunay input space partition based piecewise local lineal modelling concept; (iii) a neurofuzzy model constructive approach based on forward orthogonal least squares and optimal experimental design and finally (iv) the neurofuzzy model construction algorithm based on basis functions that are Bézier Bernstein polynomial functions and the additive decomposition. Illustrative examples demonstrate their applicability, showing that the final major hurdle in data based modelling has almost been removed.

Model estimation of cerebral hemodynamics between blood flow and volume changes: A data-based modeling approach

It is well known that there is a dynamic relationship between cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral blood volume (CBV). With increasing applications of functional MRI, where the blood oxygen-level-dependent signals are recorded, the understanding and accurate modeling of the hemodynamic relationship between CBF and CBV becomes increasingly important. This study presents an empirical and data-based modeling framework for model identification from CBF and CBV experimental data. It is shown that the relationship between the changes in CBF and CBV can be described using a parsimonious autoregressive with exogenous input model structure. It is observed that neither the ordinary least-squares (LS) method nor the classical total least-squares (TLS) method can produce accurate estimates from the original noisy CBF and CBV data. A regularized total least-squares (RTLS) method is thus introduced and extended to solve such an error-in-the-variables problem. Quantitative results show that the RTLS method works very well on the noisy CBF and CBV data. Finally, a combination of RTLS with a filtering method can lead to a parsimonious but very effective model that can characterize the relationship between the changes in CBF and CBV.

Palaeovegetation of China: a pollen data-based synthesis for the mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum.

Pollen data from China for 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp were compiled and used to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns, using complete taxon lists where possible and a biomization procedure that entailed the assignment of 645 pollen taxa to plant functional types. A set of 658 modern pollen samples spanning all biomes and regions provided a comprehensive test for this procedure and showed convincing agreement between reconstructed biomes and present natural vegetation types, both geographically and in terms of the elevation gradients in mountain regions of north-eastern and south-western China. The 6000 14C yr bp map confirms earlier studies in showing that the forest biomes in eastern China were systematically shifted northwards and extended westwards during the mid-Holocene. Tropical rain forest occurred on mainland China at sites characterized today by either tropical seasonal or broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest. Broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest occurred further north than today, and at higher elevation sites within the modern latitudinal range of this biome. The northern limit of temperate deciduous forest was shifted c. 800 km north relative to today. The 18,000 14C yr bp map shows that steppe and even desert vegetation extended to the modern coast of eastern China at the last glacial maximum, replacing today’s temperate deciduous forest. Tropical forests were excluded from China and broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forest had retreated to tropical latitudes, while taiga extended southwards to c. 43°N.

Sample size considerations in active-control non-inferiority trials with binary data based on the odds ratio

This paper presents an approximate closed form sample size formula for determining non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data. We use the odds-ratio as the measure of the relative treatment effect, derive the sample size formula based on the score test and compare it with a second, well-known formula based on the Wald test. Both closed form formulae are compared with simulations based on the likelihood ratio test. Within the range of parameter values investigated, the score test closed form formula is reasonably accurate when non-inferiority margins are based on odds-ratios of about 0.5 or above and when the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis lies between about 1 and 2.5. The accuracy generally decreases as the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis moves upwards from 1. As the non-inferiority margin odds ratio decreases from 0.5, the score test closed form formula increasingly overestimates the sample size irrespective of the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. The Wald test closed form formula is also reasonably accurate in the cases where the score test closed form formula works well. Outside these scenarios, the Wald test closed form formula can either underestimate or overestimate the sample size, depending on the magnitude of the non-inferiority margin odds ratio and the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. Although neither approximation is accurate for all cases, both approaches lead to satisfactory sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials with binary data where the odds ratio is the parameter of interest.