The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the emerging markets

A presente dissertação investiga a relação empírica entre a crise financeira de 2007-2009, a crise da dívida soberana de 2010-2012 e a recente desaceleração dos mercados de capitais nos mercados emergentes. A exposição dos mercados emergentes à crise nos desenvolvidos é quantificada através de um modelo de interdependência de factores. Os resultados mostram que estes sofreram, de facto, um choque provocado por ambas as crises. No entanto, este foi um choque de curta duração enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos ainda lutavam com as consequências resultantes das sucessivas crises financeiras. A análise do modelo mostra ainda que após a crise da divida soberana, enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos iniciam a sua recuperação, os emergentes desaceleram o seu crescimento. De forma a completar a análise do modelo foi efectuado um estudo sobre a influência dos fluxos de capitais entre os mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos na direcção do seu crescimento, revelando que existe uma relação entre estes dois eventos.

Serum factors inhibitory for in vitro development of Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage parasites

Sera from 29 individuals residing in a malaria-endemic region of Colombia were evaluated by an inhibition assay for their capacity to retard the growth of Plasmodium falciparum in vitro. The inhibitory activity was found to be independent of antibody activity. Furthermore, the degree of inhibition of parasite development was variable, depending on the parasite isolate used for the assay and the season of malaria transmission. We selected sera with high inhibitory activity and carried out partial analytical characterization by anion exchange fast protein liquid chromatography (FPLC) to identify the chemical nature of the inhibitory factor(s). The results suggested that the in vitro inhibitory activity might result from the additive effect of different molecules. It appears that these molecules could be non-specifically induced by stimulation of the immune system, they seem to play a role in the immunity to malaria.

Fatores comuns determinantes de crises cambiais e financeiras

Determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis. This paper identifies and evaluates determinative common factors of currency and financial crisis in relation to 86 crises episodes between 1970-2004, based on factor analysis, cluster and discriminant analysis. One evidenced that the rise of the ratios of domestic credit, fiscal deficit and residents bank deposits to the GDP is inherent to the different types of crises classified for economic literature. It was also identified as common factors to these episodes some indicators that capture the excessive monetary expansion of the economies and that reflect the fall in international reserves, represented by M2/Reserves and Imports/Reserves ratios and also the total volume of international reserves.

Environmental factor, crisis in the centres and change in international relations of the peripheral countries

Includes bibliography

Mutations of the myeloid transcription factor CEBPA are not associated with the blast crisis of chronic myeloid leukaemia

The transcription factor CEBPA is crucial for normal myeloid differentiation. CEBPA gene mutations have been reported in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia. The inevitable evolution of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) in chronic phase (CP) to a fatal blast crisis (BC) is assumed to result from the acquisition of additional genetic changes in the leukaemic clone. Gain of CEBPA mutations might represent a key event causing the differentiation block observed in myeloid CML-BC, but not in CML-CP. Here, no CEBPA mutation in 95 CML-BC patients was found, suggesting a limited role, if any, of CEBPA mutations in this disorder.

The euro before the financial crisis of 2008: an integrating and stabilizing factor. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Vol. 13 No. 9, June 2013

From the Introduction. The main focus of this study is to examine whether the euro has been an economic, monetary, fiscal, and social stabilizer for the Eurozone. In order to do this, the underpinnings of the euro are analysed, and the requirements and benchmarks that have to be achieved, maintained, and respected are tested against the data found in three major statistics data sources: the European Central Bank’s Statistics Data Warehouse (http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/), Economagic (www.economagic.com), and E-signal. The purpose of this work is to analyse if the euro was a stabilizing factor from its inception to the break of the financial crisis in summer 2008 in the European Union. To answer this question, this study analyses a number of indexes to understand the impact of the euro in three markets: (1) the foreign exchange market, (2) the stock market, and the Crude Oil and commodities markets, (3) the money market.

A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre (The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertainty. Analysing the EPS forecasting error in Hungary and Austria)

A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzéseikben. Más vizsgálatok azt igazolták, hogy az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzési hiba bizonytalan környezetben növekszik, míg arra is számos bizonyítékot lehet találni, hogy a negatív hírek hatását az elemzők alulsúlyozzák. A gazdasági világválság miatt az elemzőknek számtalan negatív hírt kellett figyelembe venniük az előrejelzések készítésekor, továbbá a válság az egész gazdaságban jelentősen növelte a bizonytalanságot. A szerző azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hatott a gazdasági világválság az egy részvényre jutó nyereség- előrejelzés hibájára, megkülönböztetve azt az időszakot, amíg a válság negatív hír volt, attól, amikor már hatásaként jelentősen megnőtt a bizonytalanság. _____ The author investigated the impact of the financial crisis that started in 2008 on the forecasting error for earnings per share. There is plentiful evidence from the 1980s that analysts give systematically more favourable values in their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts than reality, i.e. they are generally optimistic. Other investigations have supported the idea that the EPS forecasting error is greater under uncertain environmental circumstances, while other researchers prove that the analysts under-react to the negative information in their forecasts. The financial crisis brought a myriad of negative information for analysts to consider in such forecasts, while also increasing the level of uncertainty for the entire economy. The article investigates the impact of the financial crisis on the EPS forecasting error, distinguishing the period when the crisis gave merely negative information, from the one when its effect of uncertainty was significantly increased over the entire economy.

Crisis of work as a social integration factor

This article analyzes the process of deterioration of the work as a source of social rights and as a social integration element. The context of this process is the passage of a wage-labour society with stable employment to other where the labour relations are deregulated. This aim was tackled by means of quantitative and qualitative techniques. Secondary sources of statistical information were used together with interviews to experts of the institutional sphere. The results of this research show the emergence of a new exclusive model of social cohesion based on intensification and generalization of social inequalities and job insecurity. In this new model of social cohesion, it is noted that the integration strategies of people have less and less support from Government and people are neglected. This process appears in the four spheres that classify the social exclusion risks factors: the structural, the institutional, the relational and the individual.

A criação de valor no mercado da saúde enquanto factor diferenciador para a negociação de preços e competitividade em contexto de crise mundial

A criação de valor no mercado da saúde enquanto factor diferenciador para a negociação de preços e competitividade em contexto de crise mundial Numa altura em que o sector da saúde é apontado como uma área crítica de custos, torna-se cada vez mais difícil orientar a contratação em saúde baseada em valor para os pacientes, ou seja, pelos resultados obtidos e não pelo volume de cuidados prestados. Pretendeu-se estudar a criação de valor no mercado da saúde enquanto factor diferenciador para a negociação de preços e competitividade em contexto de crise económica. Procedeu-se à comparação dos resultados operacionais de uma empresa enquanto prestadora de serviços de Oxigenoterapia ao domicílio, tendo por base duas estratégias diferentes: redução directa de preços ou manutenção de preços com criação de valor para o cliente. As propostas foram posteriormente apresentadas para avaliação e votação on-line por um grupo 8 gestores hospitalares. A proposta baseada em valor (Nº2) apresenta melhores resultados operacionais (41%) embora apresente maiores custos. No que se refere à votação das propostas e tendo em conta o cenário apresentado, metade dos gestores optaram pela proposta Nº1 (N=4) e outra metade pela proposta Nº2 (N=4). Contudo, a maioria dos gestores (N=7) consideraram a proposta Nº1 a mais competitiva em contexto de competição com mais fornecedores. Conclui-se que numa negociação de contratos de cuidados de saúde, uma proposta baseada em valor, pode garantir a manutenção dos preços. Todavia, mantendo-se uma situação económica de recessão e num cenário competitivo de vários fornecedores este tipo de propostas pode não eleita, pelo facto de aparentemente não representar ganhos imediatos para a instituição contratante.

Investimento no capital humano da AP, factor essencial na resolução da crise

Comunicação apresentada no 8º Congresso Nacional de Administração Pública – Desafios e Soluções, em Carcavelos de 21 a 22 de Novembro de 2011.

Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis

This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which reflect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more signifi cant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

Managing the crises : How do Swiss municipalities react to the crisis and what explains the differences ?

Swiss municipalities are to an import ant extent responsible for their own resources. Since these resources primarily depend on income and property tax from individuals and enterprises, their budgets are likely to be directly affected by the actual crisis of the financial sector and the economy. This paper investigates how the municipalities perceive this threat and how they reacted to it or plan to do so. In a nationwide survey conducted at the end of 2009 in all 2596 Swiss municipalities, we asked the local secretaries which measures they launch in order to cope with expected losses in tax income and a possible increase of welfare spending. Do the municipalities rather rely on Keynesian measures increasing public spending and accepting greater deficits, or do they try to avoid further deficits by austerity measures and a withdrawal of planned investments? The paper shows that only a few municipalities - mainly the bigger ones - expect to be strongly hit by the crisis. Their reactions, however, do not reveal the clear patterns theory lets to expect. Preferences for austerity measures and deficit spending become visible but many municipalities take measures from both theories. The strongest explaining factor whether municipalities react is the affectedness by the crisis followed by the fact that the municipality belongs to the French speaking part of the country. Size also has an effect whereas the strength of the Social Democrats is negligible. More difficult is it, to explain what kind of measures municipalities are likely to take.

Responses to a crisis: FASA-Renault in Spain during the 1970s

[cat] Aquest treball analitza la trajectòria de l’empresa FASA-Renault durant la dècada dels setanta del segle XX. Aquest període compren els primers anys de la crisis experimentada per l’economia i la industria espanyola entre 1974 y 1985. A nivell extern, l’economia espanyola es va veure afectada per dos xocs en el preu del petroli. A nivell intern, la industria de l’automòbil es va veure afectat per un decret governamental: es tractava de l’anomenat decret “Ford”, aprovat l’any 1972, el qual facilitava l’establiment de Ford a Espanya. Aquest decret va tenir greus conseqüències per a SEAT, el principal productor espanyol. Entre 1972 y 1980 la producció de SEAT es va reduir en una tercera part i la seva situació financera va esdevenir insostenible. Per contra, en aquest període FASA-Renault va esdevenir el principal productor ubicat a Espanya (la seva producció es va multiplicar per 3,5 durant els anys setanta) i en líder de ventes en el mercat espanyol (la seva penetració es va incrementar del 23 al 36%). El principal objectiu del treball es analitzar els factor que expliquen l’èxit de FASARenault durant els anys setanta.

Responses to a crisis: FASA-Renault in Spain during the 1970s

[cat] Aquest treball analitza la trajectòria de l’empresa FASA-Renault durant la dècada dels setanta del segle XX. Aquest període compren els primers anys de la crisis experimentada per l’economia i la industria espanyola entre 1974 y 1985. A nivell extern, l’economia espanyola es va veure afectada per dos xocs en el preu del petroli. A nivell intern, la industria de l’automòbil es va veure afectat per un decret governamental: es tractava de l’anomenat decret “Ford”, aprovat l’any 1972, el qual facilitava l’establiment de Ford a Espanya. Aquest decret va tenir greus conseqüències per a SEAT, el principal productor espanyol. Entre 1972 y 1980 la producció de SEAT es va reduir en una tercera part i la seva situació financera va esdevenir insostenible. Per contra, en aquest període FASA-Renault va esdevenir el principal productor ubicat a Espanya (la seva producció es va multiplicar per 3,5 durant els anys setanta) i en líder de ventes en el mercat espanyol (la seva penetració es va incrementar del 23 al 36%). El principal objectiu del treball es analitzar els factor que expliquen l’èxit de FASARenault durant els anys setanta.

Factores Psicosociales y Organizaciones Saludables en tiempos de crisis

Presentación del Modelo de empresa saludable y sostenible y del Modelo para la intervención psicosocial laboral.