Foundations for contest success functions

In the literature the outcome of contests is either interpreted as win probabilities or as shares of the prize. With this in mind, we examine two approaches to contest success functions. In the first we analyze the implications of contestants' incomplete information concerning the "type" of the contest administrator. While in the case of two contestants this approach can rationalize prominent contest success functions, we show that it runs into difficulties when there are more agents. Our second approach interprets contest success functions as sharing rules and establishes a connection to bargaining and claims problems which is independent of the number of contestants. Both approaches provide foundations for popular contest success functions and guidelines for the definition of new ones. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function. JEL Classification: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances).

An axiomatization of difference-form contest success functions

This paper presents an axiomatic characterization of difference-form group contests, that is, contests fought among groups and where their probability of victory depends on the difference of their effective efforts. This axiomatization rests on the property of Equalizing Consistency, stating that the difference between winning probabilities in the grand contest and in the smaller contest should be identical across all participants in the smaller contest. This property overcomes some of the drawbacks of the widely-used ratio-form contest success functions. Our characterization shows that the criticisms commonly-held against difference-form contests success functions, such as lack of scale invariance and zero elasticity of augmentation, are unfounded.By clarifying the properties of this family of contest success functions, this axiomatization can help researchers to find the functional form better suited to their application of interest.

Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

All-pay auction equilibria in contests

We analyze (non-deterministic) contests with anonymous contest success functions. There is no restriction on the number of contestants or on their valuations for the prize. We provide intuitive and easily verifiable conditions for the existence of an equilibrium with properties similar to the one of the (deterministic) all-pay auction. Since these conditions are fulfilled for a wide array of situations, the predictions of this equilibrium are very robust to the specific details of the contest. An application of this result contributes to fill a gap in the analysis of the popular Tullock rent- seeking game because it characterizes properties of an equilibrium for increasing returns to scale larger than two, for any number of contestants and in contests with or without a common value. Keywords: (non-) deterministic contest, all-pay auction, contest success functions. JEL Classification Numbers: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D44 (Auctions).

Moral Hazard in Repeated Procurement of Services

This paper analyzes repeated procurement of services as a four-stage game divided into two periods. In each period there is (1) a contest stage à la Tullock in which the principal selects an agent and (2) a service stage in which the selected agent provides a service. Since this service effort is non-verifiable, the principal faces a moral hazard problem at the service stages. This work considers how the principal should design the period-two contest to mitigate the moral hazard problem in the period-one service stage and to maximize total service and contest efforts. It is shown that the principal must take account of the agent's past service effort in the period-two contest success function. The results indicate that the optimal way to introduce this `bias' is to choose a certain degree of complementarity between past service and current contest efforts. This result shows that contests with `additive bias' (`multiplicative bias') are optimal in incentive problems when effort cost is low (high). Furthermore, it is shown that the severity of the moral hazard problem increases with the cost of service effort (compared to the cost of contest effort) and the number of agents. Finally, the results are extended to more general contest success functions. JEL classification: C72; D82 Key words: Biased contests; Moral Hazard; Repeated Game; Incentives.

The demographic benefits of belligerence and bravery: defeated group repopulation or victorious group size expansion?

Intraspecific coalitional aggression between groups of individuals is a widespread trait in the animal world. It occurs in invertebrates and vertebrates, and is prevalent in humans. What are the conditions under which coalitional aggression evolves in natural populations? In this article, I develop a mathematical model delineating conditions where natural selection can favor the coevolution of belligerence and bravery between small-scale societies. Belligerence increases an actor's group probability of trying to conquer another group and bravery increase the actors's group probability of defeating an attacked group. The model takes into account two different types of demographic scenarios that may lead to the coevolution of belligerence and bravery. Under the first, the fitness benefits driving the coevolution of belligerence and bravery come through the repopulation of defeated groups by fission of victorious ones. Under the second demographic scenario, the fitness benefits come through a temporary increase in the local carrying capacity of victorious groups, after transfer of resources from defeated groups to victorious ones. The analysis of the model suggests that the selective pressures on belligerence and bravery are stronger when defeated groups can be repopulated by victorious ones. The analysis also suggests that, depending on the shape of the contest success function, costly bravery can evolve in groups of any size.

Signalling, mating success and paternal investment in sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus): A theoretical model

I present an optimisation model that links paternal investment, male display and female choice. Although deviced for sticklebacks, it readily applies to other fish with male guarding behaviour. It relies on a few basic assumptions on the ways hatching success depends on paternal investment and clutch size, and male survival on paternal investment and signaling. Paternal investment is here a state-dependent decision, and signal a condition-dependent handicap by which males inform females of how much they are willing to invest. Series of predictions are derived on female and male breeding strategies, including optimal levels of signaling and paternal investment as functions of clutch size, own condition, and residual reproductive value, as well as alternative strategies such as egg kleptoparasitism. Some predictions already have empirical support, for which the present model provides new interpretations. Other might readily be tested, e.g. by simple clutch-size manipulations.

Project Success through Effective Decisions: Case Studies on Project Goal Setting, Success Evaluation and Managerial Decision Making

The objective of the thesis is to structure and model the factors that contribute to and can be used in evaluating project success. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of three research topics. The goal setting process, success evaluation and decision-making process are studied in the context of a project, business unitand its business environment. To achieve the objective three research questionsare posed. These are 1) how to set measurable project goals, 2) how to evaluateproject success and 3) how to affect project success with managerial decisions.The main theoretical contribution comes from deriving a synthesis of these research topics which have mostly been discussed apart from each other in prior research. The research strategy of the study has features from at least the constructive, nomothetical, and decision-oriented research approaches. This strategy guides the theoretical and empirical part of the study. Relevant concepts and a framework are composed on the basis of the prior research contributions within the problem area. A literature review is used to derive constructs of factors withinthe framework. They are related to project goal setting, success evaluation, and decision making. On the basis of this, the case study method is applied to complement the framework. The empirical data includes one product development program, three construction projects, as well as one organization development, hardware/software, and marketing project in their contexts. In two of the case studiesthe analytic hierarchy process is used to formulate a hierarchical model that returns a numerical evaluation of the degree of project success. It has its origin in the solution idea which in turn has its foundation in the notion of projectsuccess. The achieved results are condensed in the form of a process model thatintegrates project goal setting, success evaluation and decision making. The process of project goal setting is analysed as a part of an open system that includes a project, the business unit and its competitive environment. Four main constructs of factors are suggested. First, the project characteristics and requirements are clarified. The second and the third construct comprise the components of client/market segment attractiveness and sources of competitive advantage. Together they determine the competitive position of a business unit. Fourth, the relevant goals and the situation of a business unit are clarified to stress their contribution to the project goals. Empirical evidence is gained on the exploitation of increased knowledge and on the reaction to changes in the business environment during a project to ensure project success. The relevance of a successful project to a company or a business unit tends to increase the higher the reference level of project goals is set. However, normal performance or sometimes performance below this normal level is intentionally accepted. Success measures make project success quantifiable. There are result-oriented, process-oriented and resource-oriented success measures. The study also links result measurements to enablers that portray the key processes. The success measures can be classified into success domains determining the areas on which success is assessed. Empiricalevidence is gained on six success domains: strategy, project implementation, product, stakeholder relationships, learning situation and company functions. However, some project goals, like safety, can be assessed using success measures that belong to two success domains. For example a safety index is used for assessing occupational safety during a project, which is related to project implementation. Product safety requirements, in turn, are connected to the product characteristics and thus to the product-related success domain. Strategic success measures can be used to weave the project phases together. Empirical evidence on their static nature is gained. In order-oriented projects the project phases are oftencontractually divided into different suppliers or contractors. A project from the supplier's perspective can represent only a part of the ¿whole project¿ viewed from the client's perspective. Therefore static success measures are mostly used within the contractually agreed project scope and duration. Proof is also acquired on the dynamic use of operational success measures. They help to focus on the key issues during each project phase. Furthermore, it is shown that the original success domains and success measures, their weights and target values can change dynamically. New success measures can replace the old ones to correspond better with the emphasis of the particular project phase. This adjustment concentrates on the key decision milestones. As a conclusion, the study suggests a combination of static and dynamic success measures. Their linkage to an incentive system can make the project management proactive, enable fast feedback and enhancethe motivation of the personnel. It is argued that the sequence of effective decisions is closely linked to the dynamic control of project success. According to the used definition, effective decisions aim at adequate decision quality and decision implementation. The findings support that project managers construct and use a chain of key decision milestones to evaluate and affect success during aproject. These milestones can be seen as a part of the business processes. Different managers prioritise the key decision milestones to a varying degree. Divergent managerial perspectives, power, responsibilities and involvement during a project offer some explanation for this. Finally, the study introduces the use ofHard Gate and Soft Gate decision milestones. The managers may use the former milestones to provide decision support on result measurements and ad hoc critical conditions. In the latter milestones they may make intermediate success evaluation also on the basis of other types of success measures, like process and resource measures.

Creating possibilities for collective creativity : Brokerage Functions in Practice-Based Innovation

In the network era, creative achievements like innovations are more and more often created in interaction among different actors. The complexity of today‘s problems transcends the individual human mind, requiring not only individual but also collective creativity. In collective creativity, it is impossible to trace the source of new ideas to an individual. Instead, creative activity emerges from the collaboration and contribution of many individuals, thereby blurring the contribution of specific individuals in creating ideas. Collective creativity is often associated with diversity of knowledge, skills, experiences and perspectives. Collaboration between diverse actors thus triggers creativity and gives possibilities for collective creativity. This dissertation investigates collective creativity in the context of practice-based innovation. Practice-based innovation processes are triggered by problem setting in a practical context and conducted in non-linear processes utilising scientific and practical knowledge production and creation in cross-disciplinary innovation networks. In these networks diversity or distances between innovation actors are essential. Innovation potential may be found in exploiting different kinds of distances. This dissertation presents different kinds of distances, such as cognitive, functional and organisational which could be considered as sources of creativity and thus innovation. However, formation and functioning of these kinds of innovation networks can be problematic. Distances between innovating actors may be so great that a special interpretation function is needed – that is, brokerage. This dissertation defines factors that enhance collective creativity in practice-based innovation and especially in the fuzzy front end phase of innovation processes. The first objective of this dissertation is to study individual and collective creativity at the employee level and identify those factors that support individual and collective creativity in the organisation. The second objective is to study how organisations use external knowledge to support collective creativity in their innovation processes in open multi-actor innovation. The third objective is to define how brokerage functions create possibilities for collective creativity especially in the context of practice-based innovation. The research objectives have been studied through five substudies using a case-study strategy. Each substudy highlights various aspects of creativity and collective creativity. The empirical data consist of materials from innovation projects arranged in the Lahti region, Finland, or materials from the development of innovation methods in the Lahti region. The Lahti region has been chosen as the research context because the innovation policy of the region emphasises especially the promotion of practice-based innovations. The results of this dissertation indicate that all possibilities of collective creativity are not utilised in internal operations of organisations. The dissertation introduces several factors that could support collective creativity in organisations. However, creativity as a social construct is understood and experienced differently in different organisations, and these differences should be taken into account when supporting creativity in organisations. The increasing complexity of most potential innovations requires collaborative creative efforts that often exceed the boundaries of the organisation and call for the involvement of external expertise. In practice-based innovation different distances are considered as sources of creativity. This dissertation gives practical implications on how it is possible to exploit different kinds of distances knowingly. It underlines especially the importance of brokerage functions in open, practice-based innovation in order to create possibilities for collective creativity. As a contribution of this dissertation, a model of brokerage functions in practice-based innovation is formulated. According to the model, the results and success of brokerage functions are based on the context of brokerage as well as the roles, tasks, skills and capabilities of brokers. The brokerage functions in practice-based innovation are also possible to divide into social and cognitive brokerage.

Outcome Evaluation of a Campus-Based Quit and Win Contest

This study examined abstinence outcomes of a provincial, campus-based Quit and Win contest relative to contestants’ assessments of the prize, buddy support, social support network, and emails. Of the 288 participants providing baseline data, 201 self-reported their smoking and quitting behaviours, use of quit aides, and perceptions of contest components. On 5-point scales, perceived values of the contest prize, buddy support, social support network and email were 4.42, 3.95, 3.89, and 3.46 respectively. Intention to treat analysis showed 27.8% of participants achieved 6-week contest-period abstinence; 19.8% achieved 3-month sustained abstinence. Odds of achieving 3-month abstinence were influenced by age (OR = 1.10, CI =1.03, 1.18) and use of pharmacological quit aides (OR = 0.42, CI = 0.20, 0.88), but not smoking behaviours or contest components. Contest prizes and support were valued, but played an uncertain role in quitting success. Future research might examine their roles in contestant recruitment or retention.

The success rate of immediate implant placement of mandibular molars: A clinical and radiographic retrospective evaluation between 2 and 8 years

Background: Dental implants, indicated for re-establishing both mastigatory and aesthetic functions, can be placed in the sockets immediately after tooth extraction. Most studies investigate the anterior and upper regions of the dental arch, whereas few examine longitudinal appraisal of immediate implant installation in the mandibular molar region. Objective: The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the success rate of immediate dental implants placement in mandibular molars within a follow-up period as long as 8 years. Materials and methods: Seventy-four mandibular molar implants after non-traumatic tooth extraction between 2002 and 2008 were examined in the study. All implants were evaluated radiographically immediately after prosthesis placement, 1 year after implantation, and by the end of the experimental period, in 2010. Clinical evaluation was done according to [Albrektsson et al. (1986) The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, 1, 11-25] success criteria for marginal bone loss. The mean bone losses, calculated as the difference between the final evaluation measures and those taken by the end of the first year of implant, were compared using Kruskal-Wallis test with a significance level of 5%. Results: All implants presented clinical and radiographic stable conditions, that is, 100% success rate. Significant bone loss was not found between final evaluation and that of the first functional year (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Immediate implant placement of mandibular molars proved to be a viable surgical treatment given the high success rate up to 8 years after implantation. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Wolf habitat selection at the territory level : seasonal and interannual variation and influence on reproductive success

Habitat selection has been one of the main research topics in ecology for decades. Nevertheless, many aspects of habitat selection still need to be explored. In particular, previous studies have overlooked the importance of temporal variation in habitat selection and the value of including data on reproductive success in order to describe the best quality habitat for a species. We used data collected from radiocollared wolves in Yellowstone National Park (USA), between 1996 and 2008, to describe wolf habitat selection. In particular, we aimed to identify i) seasonal differences in wolf habitat selection, ii) factors influencing interannual variation in habitat selection, and iii) the effect of habitat selection on wolf reproductive success. We used probability density functions to describe wolf habitat use and habitat coverages to represent the habitat available to wolves. We used regression analysis to connect habitat use with habitat characteristics and habitat selection with reproductive success. Our most relevant result was discovering strong interannual variability in wolf habitat selection. This variability was in part explained by pack identity and differences in litter size and leadership of a pack between two years (summer) and in pack size and precipitation (winter). We also detected some seasonal differences. Wolves selected open habitats, intermediate elevations, intermediate distances from roads, and avoided steep slopes in late winter. They selected areas close to roads and avoided steep slopes in summer. In early winter, wolves selected wetlands, herbaceous and shrub vegetation types, and areas at intermediate elevation and distance from roads. Surprisingly, the habitat characteristics selected by wolves were not useful in predicting reproductive success. We hypothesize that interannual variability in wolf habitat selection may be too strong to detect effects on reproductive success. Moreover, prey availability and competitor pressure may also have an influence on wolf reproductive success, which we did not assess. This project demonstrated how important temporal variation is in shaping patterns of habitat selection. We still believe in the value of running long-term studies, but the effect of temporal variation should always be taken into account.

The role of genetic and genomic attributes in the success of polyploids

In 1950, G. Ledyard Stebbins devoted two chapters of his book Variation and Evolution in Plants (Columbia Univ. Press, New York) to polyploidy, one on occurrence and nature and one on distribution and significance. Fifty years later, many of the questions Stebbins posed have not been answered, and many new questions have arisen. In this paper, we review some of the genetic attributes of polyploids that have been suggested to account for the tremendous success of polyploid plants. Based on a limited number of studies, we conclude: (i) Polyploids, both individuals and populations, generally maintain higher levels of heterozygosity than do their diploid progenitors. (ii) Polyploids exhibit less inbreeding depression than do their diploid parents and can therefore tolerate higher levels of selfing; polyploid ferns indeed have higher levels of selfing than do their diploid parents, but polyploid angiosperms do not differ in outcrossing rates from their diploid parents. (iii) Most polyploid species are polyphyletic, having formed recurrently from genetically different diploid parents. This mode of formation incorporates genetic diversity from multiple progenitor populations into the polyploid “species”; thus, genetic diversity in polyploid species is much higher than expected by models of polyploid formation involving a single origin. (iv) Genome rearrangement may be a common attribute of polyploids, based on evidence from genome in situ hybridization (GISH), restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis, and chromosome mapping. (v) Several groups of plants may be ancient polyploids, with large regions of homologous DNA. These duplicated genes and genomes can undergo divergent evolution and evolve new functions. These genetic and genomic attributes of polyploids may have both biochemical and ecological benefits that contribute to the success of polyploids in nature.

The impact of organizational culture and reshaping capabilities on change implementation success: The mediating role of readiness for change

It was hypothesized that employees' perceptions of an organizational culture strong in human relations values and open systems values would be associated with heightened levels of readiness for change which, in turn, would be predictive of change implementation success. Similarly, it was predicted that reshaping capabilities would lead to change implementation success, via its effects on employees' perceptions of readiness for change. Using a temporal research design, these propositions were tested for 67 employees working in a state government department who were about to undergo the implementation of a new end-user computing system in their workplace. Change implementation success was operationalized as user satisfaction and system usage. There was evidence to suggest that employees who perceived strong human relations values in their division at Time 1 reported higher levels of readiness for change at pre-implementation which, in turn, predicted system usage at Time 2. In addition, readiness for change mediated the relationship between reshaping capabilities and system usage. Analyses also revealed that pre-implementation levels of readiness for change exerted a positive main effect on employees' satisfaction with the system's accuracy, user friendliness, and formatting functions at post-implementation. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical contribution to the readiness for change literature, and in relation to the practical importance of developing positive change attitudes among employees if change initiatives are to be successful.

Reduced-parameter model of head-related transfer functions for synthesized spatial audio

Digital systems can generate left and right audio channels that create the effect of virtual sound source placement (spatialization) by processing an audio signal through pairs of Head-Related Transfer Functions (HRTFs) or, equivalently, Head-Related Impulse Responses (HRIRs). The spatialization effect is better when individually-measured HRTFs or HRIRs are used than when generic ones (e.g., from a mannequin) are used. However, the measurement process is not available to the majority of users. There is ongoing interest to find mechanisms to customize HRTFs or HRIRs to a specific user, in order to achieve an improved spatialization effect for that subject. Unfortunately, the current models used for HRTFs and HRIRs contain over a hundred parameters and none of those parameters can be easily related to the characteristics of the subject. This dissertation proposes an alternative model for the representation of HRTFs, which contains at most 30 parameters, all of which have a defined functional significance. It also presents methods to obtain the value of parameters in the model to make it approximately equivalent to an individually-measured HRTF. This conversion is achieved by the systematic deconstruction of HRIR sequences through an augmented version of the Hankel Total Least Squares (HTLS) decomposition approach. An average 95% match (fit) was observed between the original HRIRs and those re-constructed from the Damped and Delayed Sinusoids (DDSs) found by the decomposition process, for ipsilateral source locations. The dissertation also introduces and evaluates an HRIR customization procedure, based on a multilinear model implemented through a 3-mode tensor, for mapping of anatomical data from the subjects to the HRIR sequences at different sound source locations. This model uses the Higher-Order Singular Value Decomposition (HOSVD) method to represent the HRIRs and is capable of generating customized HRIRs from easily attainable anatomical measurements of a new intended user of the system. Listening tests were performed to compare the spatialization performance of customized, generic and individually-measured HRIRs when they are used for synthesized spatial audio. Statistical analysis of the results confirms that the type of HRIRs used for spatialization is a significant factor in the spatialization success, with the customized HRIRs yielding better results than generic HRIRs.