Foundations for contest success functions

In the literature the outcome of contests is either interpreted as win probabilities or as shares of the prize. With this in mind, we examine two approaches to contest success functions. In the first we analyze the implications of contestants' incomplete information concerning the "type" of the contest administrator. While in the case of two contestants this approach can rationalize prominent contest success functions, we show that it runs into difficulties when there are more agents. Our second approach interprets contest success functions as sharing rules and establishes a connection to bargaining and claims problems which is independent of the number of contestants. Both approaches provide foundations for popular contest success functions and guidelines for the definition of new ones. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function. JEL Classification: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances).

An axiomatization of difference-form contest success functions

This paper presents an axiomatic characterization of difference-form group contests, that is, contests fought among groups and where their probability of victory depends on the difference of their effective efforts. This axiomatization rests on the property of Equalizing Consistency, stating that the difference between winning probabilities in the grand contest and in the smaller contest should be identical across all participants in the smaller contest. This property overcomes some of the drawbacks of the widely-used ratio-form contest success functions. Our characterization shows that the criticisms commonly-held against difference-form contests success functions, such as lack of scale invariance and zero elasticity of augmentation, are unfounded.By clarifying the properties of this family of contest success functions, this axiomatization can help researchers to find the functional form better suited to their application of interest.

Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

The demographic benefits of belligerence and bravery: defeated group repopulation or victorious group size expansion?

Intraspecific coalitional aggression between groups of individuals is a widespread trait in the animal world. It occurs in invertebrates and vertebrates, and is prevalent in humans. What are the conditions under which coalitional aggression evolves in natural populations? In this article, I develop a mathematical model delineating conditions where natural selection can favor the coevolution of belligerence and bravery between small-scale societies. Belligerence increases an actor's group probability of trying to conquer another group and bravery increase the actors's group probability of defeating an attacked group. The model takes into account two different types of demographic scenarios that may lead to the coevolution of belligerence and bravery. Under the first, the fitness benefits driving the coevolution of belligerence and bravery come through the repopulation of defeated groups by fission of victorious ones. Under the second demographic scenario, the fitness benefits come through a temporary increase in the local carrying capacity of victorious groups, after transfer of resources from defeated groups to victorious ones. The analysis of the model suggests that the selective pressures on belligerence and bravery are stronger when defeated groups can be repopulated by victorious ones. The analysis also suggests that, depending on the shape of the contest success function, costly bravery can evolve in groups of any size.

Moral Hazard in Repeated Procurement of Services

This paper analyzes repeated procurement of services as a four-stage game divided into two periods. In each period there is (1) a contest stage à la Tullock in which the principal selects an agent and (2) a service stage in which the selected agent provides a service. Since this service effort is non-verifiable, the principal faces a moral hazard problem at the service stages. This work considers how the principal should design the period-two contest to mitigate the moral hazard problem in the period-one service stage and to maximize total service and contest efforts. It is shown that the principal must take account of the agent's past service effort in the period-two contest success function. The results indicate that the optimal way to introduce this `bias' is to choose a certain degree of complementarity between past service and current contest efforts. This result shows that contests with `additive bias' (`multiplicative bias') are optimal in incentive problems when effort cost is low (high). Furthermore, it is shown that the severity of the moral hazard problem increases with the cost of service effort (compared to the cost of contest effort) and the number of agents. Finally, the results are extended to more general contest success functions. JEL classification: C72; D82 Key words: Biased contests; Moral Hazard; Repeated Game; Incentives.

Análise de risco em organizações: caso de estudo

Dissertação Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica no perfil de Manutenção e Produção

All-pay auction equilibria in contests

We analyze (non-deterministic) contests with anonymous contest success functions. There is no restriction on the number of contestants or on their valuations for the prize. We provide intuitive and easily verifiable conditions for the existence of an equilibrium with properties similar to the one of the (deterministic) all-pay auction. Since these conditions are fulfilled for a wide array of situations, the predictions of this equilibrium are very robust to the specific details of the contest. An application of this result contributes to fill a gap in the analysis of the popular Tullock rent- seeking game because it characterizes properties of an equilibrium for increasing returns to scale larger than two, for any number of contestants and in contests with or without a common value. Keywords: (non-) deterministic contest, all-pay auction, contest success functions. JEL Classification Numbers: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D44 (Auctions).

Amygdalar function reflects common individual differences in emotion and pain regulation success

Although the co-occurrence of negative affect and pain is well recognized, the mechanism underlying their association is unclear. To examine whether a common self-regulatory ability impacts the experience of both emotion and pain, we integrated neuroimaging, behavioral, and physiological measures obtained from three assessments separated by substantial temporal intervals. Out results demonstrated that individual differences in emotion regulation ability, as indexed by an objective measure of emotional state, corrugator electromyography, predicted self-reported success while regulating pain. In both emotion and pain paradigms, the amygdala reflected regulatory success. Notably, we found that greater emotion regulation success was associated with greater change of amygdalar activity following pain regulation. Furthermore, individual differences in degree of amygdalar change following emotion regulation were a strong predictor of pain regulation success, as well as of the degree of amygdalar engagement following pain regulation. These findings suggest that common individual differences in emotion and pain regulatory success are reflected in a neural structure known to contribute to appraisal processes.

Fighting fit: thermal plasticity of metabolic function and fighting success in the crayfish Cherax destructor

1. We examined the effect of thermal acclimation on fighting success and underlying performance traits in the crayfish Cherax destructor. We tested the hypothesis that animals will be more successful when fighting at their acclimation temperature than at a colder or warmer temperature, and that changes in metabolic capacity underlie differences in behavioural performance. 2. Thermal acclimation (to 20 degrees C and to 30 degrees C) had a significant effect on behavioural contests, and the likelihood of winning was significantly greater when individuals fought at their acclimation temperature against an individual from an alternate acclimation temperature. 3. The ratio of ADP stimulated respiration to proton leak (respiratory control ratio) of isolated mitochondria increased significantly in chelae muscle of the cold-acclimated group, and differences in respiratory control ratio between winners and losers were significantly correlated with the outcome of agonistic encounters. However, acclimation did not affect tall muscle mitochondria or the activity of pyruvate kinase in either chelae or tail muscle. 4. The force produced by closing chelae was thermally insensitive within acclimation groups, and there were no significant differences between acclimation treatments. None the less, differences in chelae width between contestants were significantly correlated with the outcome of agonistic encounters, but this perceived resource holding power did not reflect the actual power of force production. 5. Thermal acclimation in C destructor has beneficial consequences for dominance and competitive ability, and the success of cold acclimated animals at the cold temperatures can be at least partly explained by concomitant up-regulation of oxidative ATP production capacity.

Measurement Function Design for Visual Tracking Applications

Extracting human postural information from video sequences has proved a difficult research question. The most successful approaches to date have been based on particle filtering, whereby the underlying probability distribution is approximated by a set of particles. The shape of the underlying observational probability distribution plays a significant role in determining the success, both accuracy and efficiency, of any visual tracker. In this paper we compare approaches used by other authors and present a cost path approach which is commonly used in image segmentation problems, however is currently not widely used in tracking applications.

Exhaled nitric oxide for monitoring childhood asthma inflammation compared to sputum analysis, serum interleukins and pulmonary function

The level of fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FENO) is significantly elevated in uncontrolled asthma and decreases after anti-inflammatory therapy The aim of this prospective study was to analyze the behavior of FENO in the follow-up and management of the inflammation in asthmatic pediatric patients treated with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS), compared to sputum cellularity, serum interleukins (IL), and pulmonary function. Twenty-six clinically stable asthmatic children aged from 6 to 18 years, previously treated or not with ICS were included. Following an international consensus (GINA), the patients were submitted to standard treatment with inhaled fluticasone for 3 months according to the severity of the disease. During this period, each patient underwent three assessments at intervals of approximately 6 weeks: Each evaluation consisted of the measurement of FENO, determination of serum interleukins IL-5, IL-10, IL-13, and interferon gamma (INF-gamma), spirometry and cytological analysis of spontaneous or induced sputum. A significant reduction in mean FENO and IL-5, without concomitant changes in FEV1, was observed along the study. There was no significant correlation between FeNO and FEV1 in the three assessments. A significant correlation between FeNO and IL-5 levels was only observed in the third assessment (r = 0.499, P=0.025). In most patients, serum IL-10, IL-13, and INF-gamma concentrations were undetectable throughout the study Sputum samples were obtained spontaneously in 11 occasions and in 56 by induction with 3% hypertonic saline solution (success rate: 50.8%), with 39 (69.9%) of them adequate for analysis. Only two of the 26 patients produced adequate samples in the three consecutive evaluations, which impaired the determination of a potential association between sputum cellularity and FeNO levels throughout the study. In conclusion, among the parameters of this study, it was difficult to perform and to interpret the serial analysis of spontaneous or induced sputum. Serum interleukins, which remained at very low or undetectable levels in most patients, were not found to be useful for therapeutic monitoring, except for IL-5 that seems to present some correlation with levels of FeNO exhaled. Monitoring of the mean FEV1 indicated no significant variations during the treatment, demonstrating that functional stability or the absence of obstruction may not reflect the adequate management of asthma. Serial measurement of FeNO seemed to best reflect the progressive anti-inflammatory action of ICS in asthma.

Transcranial Electrocortical Stimulation to Monitor the Facial Nerve Motor Function During Cerebellopontine Angle Surgery

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to investigate the success rate of using the facial motor evoked potential (FMEP) of orbicularis oculi and oris muscles for facial nerve function monitoring with use of a stepwise protocol, and its usefulness in predicting facial nerve outcome during cerebellopontine angle (CPA) surgeries. METHODS: FMEPs were recorded intraoperatively from 60 patients undergoing CPA surgeries. Transcranial electrocortical stimulation (TES) was performed using corkscrew electrodes positioned at hemispheric montage (C3/C4 and CZ). The contralateral abductor pollicis brevis muscle was used as the control response. Stimulation was always applied contralaterally to the affected side using 1, 3, or 5 rectangular pulses ranging from 200 to 600 V with 50 mu s of pulse duration and an interstimulus interval of 2 ms. Facial potentials were recorded from needles placed in the orbicularis oculi and oris muscles. RESULTS: FMEP from the orbicularis oris and oculi muscles could be reliably monitored in 86.7% and 85% of the patients, respectively. The immediate postoperative facial function correlated significantly with the FMEP ratio in the orbicularis oculi muscle at 80% amplitude ratio (P =.037) and orbicularis oris muscle at 35% ratio (P =.000). FMEP loss was always related to postoperative facial paresis, although in different degrees. CONCLUSION: FMEPs can be obtained reliably by using TES with 3 to 5 train pulses. Stable intraoperative FMEPs can predict a good postoperative outcome of facial function. However, further refinements of this technique are necessary to minimize artifacts and to make this method more reliable.

Invasion success and development of benthic assemblages: effect of timing, duration of submersion and substrate type

Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reading performance in children with visual function anomalies

Aims - To compare reading performance in children with and without visual function anomalies and identify the influence of abnormal visual function and other variables in reading ability. Methods - A cross-sectional study was carried in 110 children of school age (6-11 years) with Abnormal Visual Function (AVF) and 562 children with Normal Visual Function (NVF). An orthoptic assessment (visual acuity, ocular alignment, near point of convergence and accommodation, stereopsis and vergences) and autorefraction was carried out. Oral reading was analyzed (list of 34 words). Number of errors, accuracy (percentage of success) and reading speed (words per minute - wpm) were used as reading indicators. Sociodemographic information from parents (n=670) and teachers (n=34) was obtained. Results - Children with AVF had a higher number of errors (AVF=3.00 errors; NVF=1.00 errors; p<0.001), a lower accuracy (AVF=91.18%; NVF=97.06%; p<0.001) and reading speed (AVF=24.71 wpm; NVF=27.39 wpm; p=0.007). Reading speed in the 3rd school grade was not statistically different between the two groups (AVF=31.41 wpm; NVF=32.54 wpm; p=0.113). Children with uncorrected hyperopia (p=0.003) and astigmatism (p=0.019) had worst reading performance. Children in 2nd, 3rd, or 4th grades presented a lower risk of having reading impairment when compared with the 1st grade. Conclusion - Children with AVF had reading impairment in the first school grade. It seems that reading abilities have a wide variation and this disparity lessens in older children. The slow reading characteristics of the children with AVF are similar to dyslexic children, which suggest the need for an eye evaluation before classifying the children as dyslexic.