General preferences for consumption goods in the random matching model of commodity money

This paper generalizes the original random matching model of money byKiyotaki and Wright (1989) (KW) in two aspects: first, the economy ischaracterized by an arbitrary distribution of agents who specialize in producing aparticular consumption good; and second, these agents have preferences suchthat they want to consume any good with some probability. The resultsdepend crucially on the size of the fraction of producers of each goodand the probability with which different agents want to consume eachgood. KW and other related models are shown to be parameterizations ofthis more general one.

A Walrasian theory of commodity money: Paradoxical results

The objective of this note is to analyze some implications of the model of commodity money described in Banerjee and Maskin (1996) which may seem paradoxical. In order to do this, we incorporate a general production cost structure into the model. We focus on two different results. First, the existence of technologies that make counterfeiting a commodity more difficult may exclude it from being used as medium of exchange. Second, allocative distortions due to problems of asymmetric information may become larger in the presence of such technologies.

Fiat Money, Intrinsic Properties, and Government Transaction Policy

Why do people coordinate on the use of valueless pieces of paper as generally accepted money? A possible answer is that these objects have intrinsic properties that make them better candidates to be used as media of exchange. Another answer stresses the fact that unconvertible fiat money will not easily appear unless there is a centralized institution that favors its use. The main objective of the paper is to analyze these questions. In order to do this, we take a model of commodity money in which fiat money does not play any significant role and modify it to examine under which circumstances fiat money might come to circulate as medium of exchange. Some of the results obtained from the model differ in a rather substantial way from previous related literature.

On money as a medium of exchange when goods vary by supply and demand

Models of the exchange process based on search theory can be usedto analyze the features of objects that make them more or less likely toemerge as ``money'' in equilibrium. These models illustrate the trade--offbetween endogenous acceptability (an equilibrium property) and intrinsiccharacteristics of goods, such as storability, recognizability, etc. Inthis paper, we look at how the relative supply and demand for various goodsaffect their likelihood of becoming money. Intuitively, goods in highdemand and/or low supply are more likely to appear as commodity money,subject to the qualification that which object ends up circulating as amedium of exchange depends at least partly on convention. Welfare propertiesare discussed.

Fiat money, intrinsic properties and government transaction policy

Why do people coordinate on the use of valueless piecesof paper as generally accepted money? A possible answeris that these objects have intrinsic properties that make them better candidates to be used as media of exchange. Another answer stresses the fact that unconvertible fiat money will not easily appear unless there is a centralized institution that favors its use.The main objective of the paper is to analyze these questions. In order to do this, we take a model of commodity money in which fiat money does not play any significant role and modify it to examine under which circumstances fiat money might come to circulate as medium of exchange. Some of the results obtained from the model differ in a rather substantial way from previous related literature.

Do long-short speculators destabilize commodity futures markets?

This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of the financialization of commodity futures markets by studying the conditional volatility of long–short commodity portfolios and their conditional correlations with traditional assets (stocks and bonds). Using several groups of trading strategies that hedge fund managers are known to implement, we show that long–short speculators do not cause changes in the volatilities of the portfolios they hold or changes in the conditional correlations between these portfolios and traditional assets. Thus calls for increased regulation of commodity money managers are, at this stage, premature. Additionally, long–short speculators can take comfort in knowing that their trades do not alter the risk and diversification properties of their portfolios.

As duas vias do princípio das vantagens comparativas de David Ricardo e o padrão-ouro: um ensaio crítico

This article critically resumes Ricardo's principle of comparative advantages pointing out internal coherence problems that have been neglected by the specialized literature. First, long-lasting disequilibria observed in the balance of trade seem incompatible with the idea that these disequilibria are caused by technical advances that change relative prices. Second, comparative advantages do not seem to work in an economy with a universally accepted commodity-money. Finally, the contradiction between the gold standard mechanisms, ruled by Smith's "Law of Reflux", and the quantitative theory of money, which is a necessary condition for the "second way" of the theory of comparative advantages.

The Myth of Demonetarization of Gold

The aim of this paper is to discuss the crisis of the international financial system and the necessity of reforming it by new anchor or benchmark for the international currency, a money-commodity. The need for understanding the definition of a numéraire is a first necessity. Although most economists reject any connection between money and a particular commodity (gold) – because of the existence of legal tender money in every country – it will be shown that it is equivalent to reduce the real space to an abstract number (usually assumed 1) in order to postulate that money is neutral. This is sheer nonsense. It will also be shown that the concept of fiat money or state money does not preclude the existence of commodity money. This paper is divided in four sections. The first section analyses the definition and meaning of a numéraire for the international currency and the justification for a variable standard of value. In the second section, the market value of the US dollar is analysed by looking at new forms of value -the derivative products- the dollar as a safe haven, and the role of SDRs in reforming the international monetary system. In the third and fourth sections, empirical evidence concerning the most recent period of the financial crisis is presented and an econometric model is specified to fit those data. After estimating many different specifications of the model –linear stepwise regression, simultaneous regression with GMM estimator, error correction model- the main econometric result is that there is a one to one correspondence between the price of gold and the value of the US dollar. Indeed, the variance of the price of gold is mainly explained by the Euro exchange rate defined with respect to the US dollar, the inflation rate and negatively influenced by the Dow Jones index and the interest rate.

Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices

This paper extends the Competitive Storage Model by incorporating prominent features of the production process and financial markets. A major limitation of this basic model is that it cannot successfully explain the degree of serial correlation observed in actual data. The proposed extensions build on the observation that in order to generate a high degree of price persistence, a model must incorporate features such that agents are willing to hold stocks more often than predicted by the basic model. We therefore allow unique characteristics of the production and trading mechanisms to provide the required incentives. Specifically, the proposed models introduce (i) gestation lags in production with heteroskedastic supply shocks, (ii) multiperiod forward contracts, and (iii) a convenience return to inventory holding. The rational expectations solutions for twelve commodities are numerically solved. Simulations are then employed to assess the effects of the above extensions on the time series properties of commodity prices. Results indicate that each of the features above partially account for the persistence and occasional spikes observed in actual data. Evidence is presented that the precautionary demand for stocks might play a substantial role in the dynamics of commodity prices.

Karl Marx és Karl Menger néhány gondolata a pénz eredetéről = The thoughts of Karl Marx and Karl Menger about the origin of money

Kisebb bizonytalankodás után a legtöbb közgazdászhallgató a pénz funkcióinak felsorolásába kezd, ha megkérdezik, hogyan határozná meg a pénz fogalmát. A gyakorlatiasabb, vagy a számvitel iránt elkötelezettebb diákok esetleg felidézik a banki mérleget és – részben helyesen – a pénzt kötelezettségként helyezik el benne. Mintha azonban még mindig egy kicsit pironkodnánk, hogy nem találjuk a megfelelő definíciót. És ez már így megy évszázadok óta. Jelen tanulmányban két XIX. századi közgazdász – Karl Marx és Karl Menger – néhány pénzelméleti következtetését igyekszem összehasonlítani, figyelembe véve az általuk képviselt közgazdasági elmélet alapvető eltéréseit. A mára általánosan elfogadottá váló szubjektív értékelmélet és a kissé elfeledett munkaérték-elmélet látszólag teljesen eltérő feltevéseire alapozva a két gondolkodó egészen hasonló eredményre jutott. Számukra a pénz nem egy egyszerű eszköz, sem követelés és kötelezettség, ahogyan most elkönyvelnénk, hanem áru. Eredetét nem állami törvényekből vezetik le, hanem társadalmi konszenzus során létrejött jelenségnek tekintik a pénzt, ami fölötte áll a törvényeknek, eredendően nem jelképet testesít meg, hanem különleges jószágként válik alkalmassá értékjel kifejezésére. / === / If being asked how to define money most students of economics would start listing the functions of money, or those students with more practical insight would place money as liability in the balance sheet of banks. It seems, however, as if we were still embarrassed by not finding the right definition. In the present study I am endeavouring to give a brief overview of various theoretical findings on the essence of money in the economy preceding the 19th century and then compare some money theoretical conclusions of two economists – Karl Marx and Karl Menger – considering the major differences of the economic theories represented by them. On the basis of the premises of the widely accepted subjective value theory and the somewhat forgotten labour theory of value the two 19th century thinkers came to rather similar results. For them money is not a simple means of payment, nor liability or claim, the way we would account for them now, but a special commodity. They do not attach its creation to the appearance of state laws on money as a legal tender but regard it as a social phenomenon which became capable of expressing a value token due to its peculiar characteristics.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.