Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.

Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

Sedimentaology, pollen profile, and climate reconstruction on a sediment core from Trou Lake, Yukon, Canada

Beringian climate and environmental history are poorly characterized at its easternmost edge. Lake sediments from the northern Yukon Territory have recorded sedimentation, vegetation, summer temperature and precipitation changes since ~16 cal ka BP. Herb-dominated tundra persisted until ~14.7 cal ka BP with mean July air temperatures less than or equal to 5 °C colder and annual precipitation 50 to 120 mm lower than today. Temperatures rapidly increased during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial towards modern conditions, favoring establishment of Betula-Salix shrub tundra. Pollen-inferred temperature reconstructions recorded a pronounced Younger Dryas stadial in east Beringia with a temperature drop of ~1.5 °C (~2.5 to 3.0 °C below modern conditions) and low net precipitation (90 to 170 mm) but show little evidence of an early Holocene thermal maximum in the pollen record. Sustained low net precipitation and increased evaporation during early Holocene warming suggest a moisture-limited spread of vegetation and an obscured summer temperature maximum. Northern Yukon Holocene moisture availability increased in response to a retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet, postglacial sea level rise, and decreasing summer insolation that in turn led to establishment of Alnus-Betula shrub tundra from ~5 cal ka BP until present, and conversion of a continental climate into a coastal-maritime climate near the Beaufort Sea.

Aprubt climate change events in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

The western Iberian margin has been one of the key locations to study abrupt glacial climate change and associated interhemispheric linkages. The regional variability in the response to those events is being studied by combining a multitude of published and new records. Looking at the trend from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 to 2, the planktic foraminifer data, conform with the alkenone record of Martrat et al. [2007], shows that abrupt climate change events, especially the Heinrich events, became more frequent and their impacts in general stronger during the last glacial cycle. However, there were two older periods with strong impacts on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the Heinrich-type event associated with Termination (T) IV and the one occurring during MIS 8 (269 to 265 ka). During the Heinrich stadials of the last glacial cycle, the polar front reached the northern Iberian margin (ca. 41°N), while the arctic front was located in the vicinity of 39°N. During all the glacial periods studied, there existed a boundary at the latter latitude, either the arctic front during extreme cold events or the subarctic front during less strong coolings or warmer glacials. Along with these fronts sea surface temperatures (SST) increased southward by about 1°C per one degree of latitude leading to steep temperature gradients in the eastern North Atlantic and pointing to a close vicinity between subpolar and subtropical waters. The southern Iberian margin was always bathed by subtropical water masses - surface and/ or subsurface ones -, but there were periods when these waters also penetrated northward to 40.6°N. Glacial hydrographic conditions were similar during MIS 2 and 4, but much different during MIS 6. MIS 6 was a warmer glacial with the polar front being located further to the north allowing the subtropical surface and subsurface waters to reach at minimum as far north as 40.6°N and resulting in relative stable conditions on the southern margin. In the vertical structure, the Greenland-type climate oscillations during the last glacial cycle were recorded down to 2465 m during the Heinrich stadials, i.e. slightly deeper than in the western basin. This deeper boundary is related to the admixing of Mediterranean Outflow Water, which also explains the better ventilation of the intermediate-depth water column on the Iberian margin. This compilation revealed that latitudinal, longitudinal and vertical gradients existed in the waters along the Iberian margin, i.e. in a relative restricted area, but sufficient paleo-data exists now to validate regional climate models for abrupt climate change events in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean.

Climate and total tree cover reconstructions based on the 43.7-kyr fossil pollen record from Khoe (NW Sakhalin Island) and modern climate variables of 236 modern surface pollen sampling sites

A late Quaternary pollen record from northern Sakhalin Island (51.34°N, 142.14°E, 15 m a.s.l.) spanning the last 43.7 ka was used to reconstruct regional climate dynamics and vegetation distribution by using the modern analogue technique (MAT). The long-term trends of the reconstructed mean annual temperature (TANN) and precipitation (PANN), and total tree cover are generally in line with key palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region and the Asian monsoon domain. TANN largely follows the fluctuations in solar summer insolation at 55°N. During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, TANN and PANN were on average 0.2 °C and 700 mm, respectively, thus very similar to late Holocene/modern conditions. Full glacial climate deterioration (TANN = -3.3 °C, PANN = 550 mm) was relatively weak as suggested by the MAT-inferred average climate parameters and tree cover densities. However, error ranges of the climate reconstructions during this interval are relatively large and the last glacial environments in northern Sakhalin could be much colder and drier than suggested by the weighted average values. An anti-phase relationship between mean temperature of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month is documented during the last glacial period, i.e. MIS 2 and 3, suggesting more continental climate due to sea levels that were lower than present. Warmest and wettest climate conditions have prevailed since the end of the last glaciation with an optimum (TANN = 1.5 °C, PANN = 800 mm) in the middle Holocene interval (ca 8.7-5.2 cal. ka BP). This lags behind the solar insolation peak during the early Holocene. We propose that this is due to continuous Holocene sea level transgression and regional influence of the Tsushima Warm Current, which reached maximum intensity during the middle Holocene. Several short-term climate oscillations are suggested by our reconstruction results and correspond to Northern Hemisphere Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, the Bølling-Allerød and the Younger Dryas. The most prominent fluctuation is registered during Heinrich 4 event, which is marked by noticeably colder and drier conditions and the spread of herbaceous taxa.

Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5° to 6°C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.